Stock Market thoughts (continued - no politics please!)

I don't try to catch falling knives, but I do kinda wish I were better at moving my foot out of the way before it sticks me to the floor.
 
Anyone here use vanguard?

I was hoping to slowly (like 5% per week) move funds from my chicken-little bond fund ("dry powder") into something more equity-ish, trying to dollar-cost average back into the market, rather than watching it daily and being tempted to fail at timing the market. :D

It looks like I can do this in and out of external accounts, but not between holdings.
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
I believe Vanguard calls “exchange”, not buy and sell.
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Thanks. That's half of my battle solved.

Is there a way to set up a recurring exchange? (Say 5%/week for 20 weeks) that you know of? I'm not seeing anything close to that, and my google-fu is only pulling up DCA into or out of vanguard, not exchanging within.
 
My prime desktop computer is on the fritz so I won’t be doing any investing until I format my Windows 7 C Drive and do a fresh Windows 10 install; then reinstall all my old software. That’ll keep me busy until just before the vaccine is announced in April. Just in time for me to pick up bargain basement priced stocks before the rally starts.
 
Undeniably a brutal week.

But to put in perspective, our stock/mutual fund/IRA portfolio is just back down to where it was in early December of last year. It's easy to forget how substantial and rapid the runup to the recent highs was.

Still not fun, though.
 
FastEddieB said:
Undeniably a brutal week.

But to put in perspective, our stock/mutual fund/IRA portfolio is just back down to where it was in early December of last year. It's easy to forget how substantial and rapid the runup to the recent highs was.

Still not fun, though.
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True but it ain’t over yet.
 
schmookeeg said:
Thanks. That's half of my battle solved.

Is there a way to set up a recurring exchange? (Say 5%/week for 20 weeks) that you know of? I'm not seeing anything close to that, and my google-fu is only pulling up DCA into or out of vanguard, not exchanging within.
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I don’t think so. Obviously you could just pull the $ out of bond funds, put into your bank and setup a recurring buyin.
 
DaleB said:
as I am forced to unload some stocks (mostly ETFs, actually) to free up some cash for further diversification of my portfolio, I will just have to remind myself that while they're not as good as the were last week... they're still for the most part a darn sight better than they were a year ago. And this exact thing is why I'm diversifying...
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Did a rebalance in part of my portfolio today. Reduced bond holdings and increased equities.
 
Half Fast said:
True but it ain’t over yet.
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I don't think so either. Between the media and the politicians and the "just do anything" folks.... and the 40% of Americans that are avoiding Corona Beer.

My view is this: we don't know a lot about the virus, and we don't have a vaccine, immunity, nor a treatment like Tamiflu. It appears to be mild to *most* folks, but still has the potential to cause a LOT of deaths. Vaccine is probably 2 years out what with the FDA process and manufacturing. It is going to continue to spread (trying to contain through quarantine isn't enough & carries a fair amount of economic risk). So we should do the best we can; follow prudent measures such as washing hands, not touching eyes, etc.; stay home if we're sick; and do limited quarantine where prudent. It will spread, let it run it's course, and take more measures with the most vulnerable part of the population (the elderly, the immunocompromised, the very young).

That's my *opinion*, nothing more. Others will have opinions, too. But we do need to put real facts out there, not hype by blowhard politicians that see this as a chance to get an edge in the election.
 
Dividend-paying stocks’s yields go up as the share price goes down.

Ford, for instance, is yielding 8% annually at its current price. So, not a bad place to park money if you need income. With the recent selloff, lots of stocks have tempting yields. Plus, if you reinvest the dividends regularly you get the benefit of dollar-cost-averaging.

Of course, two major caveats:

1) If the price continues to fall, that can wipe out any gains from dividends in a hurry, and,

2) Dividends going forward are not guaranteed, and can be reduced or even eliminated if things really go south for a company.

That said, I may look at throwing a few dollars at a high yield stock Monday. That is, unless that falling knife hits my bouncing cat, in which case my vet bills may preclude it!
 
I am watching AAL and XOM. AAL will recover once the Max is back flying, and the Woooohan Cough crisis has passed. Same with XOM, but probably affected much less by the Max.
 
The majority of my investment is in property. Something about the fact I can drive by and see my property is still there. Worst case scenario it burns down, but there is insurance for that.

I know the common wisdom is that stocks do well over the long term and are a good investment. But I can't get around the voodoo of it all. It always strikes me as a lot of smoke and mirrors controlled by a bunch of con men on Wall Street who are only in it for themselves.
 
Groundpounder said:
I am watching AAL and XOM. AAL will recover once the Max is back flying, and the Woooohan Cough crisis has passed. Same with XOM, but probably affected much less by the Max.
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You're assuming that the government will allow the Max to fly again. I don't think they're done punishing Boeing yet.... Likewise the international authorities.
 
wsuffa said:
You're assuming that the government will allow the Max to fly again. I don't think they're done punishing Boeing yet.... Likewise the international authorities.
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At SOME point, it will fly again. I don’t foresee the government revoking the type certificate by any means.
 
wsuffa said:
You're assuming that the government will allow the Max to fly again. I don't think they're done punishing Boeing yet.... Likewise the international authorities.
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Ryanb said:
At SOME point, it will fly again. I don’t foresee the government revoking the type certificate by any means.
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What he said. It will fly again.
 
midwestpa24 said:
The majority of my investment is in property. Something about the fact I can drive by and see my property is still there. Worst case scenario it burns down, but there is insurance for that.
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We just bought our first rental house. I told my wife the other day that if the house burned to the ground tomorrow, it would still outperform all of our other investments for the month.
 
I think the key to the markets for the average person is to just not worry about the day to day changes. Sure when you are ready to buy try to buy low and when ready to sell then do so when it's high but the market goes up and down all the time. The farther out you zoom on say the Dow Jones graph the more you see the overall trend is always up. There are some periods where it drops significantly yes but again when you zoom out those are dips in an overall upwards trend.

You could loose your mind watching this thing bounce up and down on the daily but letting it sit and grow you quickly learn to disregard the disaster of the day.
 
Influenza, common flu, kill 30,000 to 60,000 Americans a year with a mortality rate of about .1% give or take. The corona virus according to South Korea’s numbers run about .2% give or take.
 
Kind of a paradox of large and small numbers...

“Only” killing 1% of those infected gives any individual really good odds.

But in a pandemic when virtually everyone is eventually exposed, that means over 3 million dead Americans. I think we can agree that’s a “non-trivial” death count.
 
So diabetes and heart attack will hold the top spot on the killer list?
 
FastEddieB said:
Kind of a paradox of large and small numbers...

“Only” killing 1% of those infected gives any individual really good odds.

But in a pandemic when virtually everyone is eventually exposed, that means over 3 million dead Americans. I think we can agree that’s a “non-trivial” death count.
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No, that ignores the probability of coming into contact with an infected person and the probability of contracting the disease from the contact. Multiply all those together and you get a much smaller number than 3 million .

Plus, it's not very practical to apply the mortality rate of one country to another because of the variability in diagnosis accuracy, reporting, and quality of care.
 
FastEddieB said:
Kind of a paradox of large and small numbers...

“Only” killing 1% of those infected gives any individual really good odds.

But in a pandemic when virtually everyone is eventually exposed, that means over 3 million dead Americans. I think we can agree that’s a “non-trivial” death count.
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Not everyone will contract it. Would suck to live in a large crowded city though. If bad enough they could have a vaccine in a few months, I believe Israel is testing a promising vaccine already.
 
1RTK1 said:
Not everyone will contract it. Would suck to live in a large crowded city though. If bad enough they could have a vaccine in a few months, I believe Israel is testing a promising vaccine already.
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Multiple countries are starting vaccine testing (including FDA in USA). But the testing process has not had much in the way of advances in the last decade or two. It is still a long slow process.
Compare that to the front half of the puzzle to create the vaccine. Assuming my memory is correct, for H1NI just a decade ago, it took 22 months to get to the point where there was a proposed vaccine. Not we are there in six to eight weeks!

Note: This is all based on news reports. I am way outside my knowledge base

Tim
 
tspear said:
Multiple countries are starting vaccine testing (including FDA in USA). But the testing process has not had much in the way of advances in the last decade or two. It is still a long slow process.
Compare that to the front half of the puzzle to create the vaccine. Assuming my memory is correct, for H1NI just a decade ago, it took 22 months to get to the point where there was a proposed vaccine. Not we are there in six to eight weeks!

Note: This is all based on news reports. I am way outside my knowledge base

Tim
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Somethings take more time than other due to the complexity, but there is always the FDA’s arduous red tape to go through..

Wait until we get the quick test available, you will see the number of cases go up tremendously if not exponentially.
The only Americans killed by this to date were from a convalescent home or those with other predisposing factors, ie unhealthy people.

The Israel’s or South Koreans might already have a vaccine that they use on animals for a very similar corona virus.
 
Largest single day point gain in history.

(To return to the actual thread topic...)
 
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