Stock Market thoughts (continued - no politics please!)

Checkout_my_Six said:
yup.....I almost bit on that....but, didn't. I might take a bite when it pulls back.;)
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That suggests you’re trying to “time the market” to some extent. If you think it’s a good company with growth potential, I’d go ahead and buy it regardless of daily fluctuations.

Oh, and my mention of cannabis stocks was just a facetious jab at Half Fast’s “Booze” recommendation. Though, truth be told we do have tiny positions in two of them.
 
FastEddieB said:
That suggests you’re trying to “time the market” to some extent. If you think it’s a good company with growth potential, I’d go ahead and buy it regardless of daily fluctuations.

Oh, and my mention of cannabis stocks was just a facetious jab at Half Fast’s “Booze” recommendation. Though, truth be told we do have tiny positions in two of them.
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NOTE:
Eddie’s use of “we” is either the royal form of the word, or refers to him and his (much) better half, not to an investment partnership with me.

Just thought I should clarify, in the interest of not losing my security clearance by running afoul of federal pot laws.

Back to regular programming....
 
kgruber said:
I'd like to invest in "cord cutting" (maybe ROKU, HULU) stocks and sell short Dish, Direct, and other worthless old fashioned providers.
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Isn’t Hulu owned by Disney who is getting ready to unleash their own streaming service in a few weeks? Since Disney owns such a huge swath of the television entertainment market, I’d think Netflix/Amazon might be reeling a bit since they can rock a streaming service with Disney/ESPN/Hulu for lower price.
 
There's never a bad time to buy O, especially with DRP.

Rich
 
Palmpilot said:
If your time horizon is long enough....
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"Time horizon" is too often viewed as though it were a discrete event. In reality, I see the amount of risk I will take in investing as a continuum that changes over time.

The risk I will take declines as I approach retirement, it will be fairly low during my early retirement years, I suspect it will go up or down depending on investment performance in subsequent years, and as I enter my latter years I might actually take MORE risk if I have an excess of funds since the money won't need to last as long by then.
 
Palmpilot said:
If your time horizon is long enough, that appears to be true, although there have been times when it took a few years to start making money.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=o&x=58&y=6&time=20&startdate=1/4/1999&enddate=10/28/2019&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa:0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=128&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9
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Yeah, but look at it compared to other equities during those periods. O actually did better than most.

EDIT: And remember, we're talking monthly dividends, making it ideal for DRP.

Rich
 
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I like gold as an investment, because I don't think gold will ever go to zero, or even really low. It may dip occasionally, but that is when i buy more, so dips are good.
 
Shuswap BC said:
I like gold as an investment, because I don't think gold will ever go to zero, or even really low. It may dip occasionally, but that is when i buy more, so dips are good.
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I like gold too. It's about 1% of my portfolio. Since 2006, it has almost been keeping up with the Dow index.
 
FastEddieB said:
Self explanatory.
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I’ve made a lot more than I would have if it was all in a coffee can in the freezer. :) I’m fully invested in an automatic year based fund that gets slightly less aggressive as I get older.
 
I own some gold. I don’t really count it as an “investment”, per sé, more like a hedge against hyper-inflation.

Not that I expect hyper-inflation, but it seems reasonable to have some insurance against it.
 
FastEddieB said:
I own some gold. I don’t really count it as an “investment”, per sé, more like a hedge against hyper-inflation.

Not that I expect hyper-inflation, but it seems reasonable to have some insurance against it.
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I also hedge in precious metals, primarily brass and lead. Seems more practical and immediately useful than gold.
 
We are currently in one of the longest Bull Markets in history. It will not go on forever.

The 3-month/10-year bond yield curve was recently inverted. Historically this has preceded every recession since 1956.

The S&P 500 is at or near it's all time high.

Sounds like a good time to take profits.
 
In 2013 I bought approximately $135k worth of gold, another $180k in 2014, $195k in 2015, and $270k in 2018. Where it is now, that was a great investment in my opinion. If it dips again I will buy more, but not buying any now while it is high. Sure beats a GIC or many other things I could have done with it.
 
topgun260 said:
We are currently in one of the longest Bull Markets in history. It will not go on forever.

The 3-month/10-year bond yield curve was recently inverted. Historically this has preceded every recession since 1956.

The S&P 500 is at or near it's all time high.

Sounds like a good time to take profits.
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Going to need more than an inverted yield curve and “we’re past due” to support that recession claim. Generally recessions have a large bubble that gets corrected in the market (dot com, mortgages) Is there a particular bubble you think is getting ready to have a large correction? Consumer debt? Fed monetary policy?
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
I consider my investment in my Bonanza as good as gold.... ;)
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Beech must have been hoping a lot of owners would think that when they came up with the name. ;)

topgun260 said:
We are currently in one of the longest Bull Markets in history. It will not go on forever.

The 3-month/10-year bond yield curve was recently inverted. Historically this has preceded every recession since 1956.

The S&P 500 is at or near it's all time high.

Sounds like a good time to take profits.
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Is there some predictable natural law that limits how long a bull market (or an economic expansion) can last?

Are all historical inverted yield curve periods followed by a recession?

When the major index hits an all time high does that mean it can't subsequently achieve another one?
 
All inverted bond yields? No, there was once it didn’t happen.

what I see is that so many seem determined to have a recession, which greatly increases the chances of it actually happening.
 
SoonerAviator said:
Going to need more than an inverted yield curve and “we’re past due” to support that recession claim. Generally recessions have a large bubble that gets corrected in the market (dot com, mortgages) Is there a particular bubble you think is getting ready to have a large correction? Consumer debt? Fed monetary policy?
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Actually, most bubbles are generally determined after the fact.
From what I recall, recession usually start in one area of the economy and slowly spread. You can look at a few areas now and wonder if they will spread:
1. Auto loans. Default rates are climbing, rather quickly.
2. Manufacturing, negative growth now for a couple of quarters and employment way down
3. Export/import trade, negative export growth rate
4. Agriculture, affected by negative exports
5. Low wage, unskilled labor market. Look at the increasing level of automation. It is slowly eating away at the bottom 50% of the labor market. Not sure when we reach a tipping point.

Tim
 
bflynn said:
All inverted bond yields? No, there was once it didn’t happen.

what I see is that so many seem determined to have a recession, which greatly increases the chances of it actually happening.
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I have heard the counter claim but never found a reference. Which recession either started without an inverted bond yield or when did an inversion happen and no recession within two years?

Tim
 
SoonerAviator said:
Going to need more than an inverted yield curve and “we’re past due” to support that recession claim. Generally recessions have a large bubble that gets corrected in the market (dot com, mortgages) Is there a particular bubble you think is getting ready to have a large correction? Consumer debt? Fed monetary policy?
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Industrial production is weak, in some cases already in recession. Employment is slowing, the rebirth of manufacturing isn't happening. The jobs added are mostly health care, social services and administrative, not those that add value at the greatest rates. The consumer is strong, mostly due to artificially low mortgage interest rates. How long can that continue with ( unable to be discussed here )?
 
If I was looking for a bubble, I'd be looking at student loan debt. Can't shuck it off with bankruptcy and we've had irrational exuberance pushed by culture ("A degree is the way to a high paying job") and the for-profit universities with cheap money flooding the market. Now it' snot a traditional bubble with soaring asset prices, but a big hole in the market none the less.
 
jsstevens said:
If I was looking for a bubble, I'd be looking at student loan debt. Can't shuck it off with bankruptcy and we've had irrational exuberance pushed by culture ("A degree is the way to a high paying job") and the for-profit universities with cheap money flooding the market. Now it' snot a traditional bubble with soaring asset prices, but a big hole in the market none the less.
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Last time I saw the graphic of consumer debt, student loans were increasing as a proportion of total consumer debt, but it didn't just jump off the page because the growth was so tremendous over the past few years. From when I graduated ('06) it has gone haywire though. I'll see if I can find it.

Edit: Auto loans have also gone up significantly almost lock-step with student loans. $70K Ford/GM full-size suv's that used to sell for $45K bear that out.

MW-HL737_consum_NS_20190619152202.png
 
Falling back on my conditional acceptance of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Random Walk Theory...

Everything we’re discussing here is public information, already factored in by market players. So the market is exactly where it’s “supposed” to be, and at any given moment is just as likely to go up as down.

There’s always someone predicting Armageddon, and someday they might be right. Again, let me recommend this book for a glimpse into how random it all probably is:

48204238927_904b0f7f17.jpg
 
tspear said:
Actually, most bubbles are generally determined after the fact.
From what I recall, recession usually start in one area of the economy and slowly spread. You can look at a few areas now and wonder if they will spread:
1. Auto loans. Default rates are climbing, rather quickly.
2. Manufacturing, negative growth now for a couple of quarters and employment way down
3. Export/import trade, negative export growth rate
4. Agriculture, affected by negative exports
5. Low wage, unskilled labor market. Look at the increasing level of automation. It is slowly eating away at the bottom 50% of the labor market. Not sure when we reach a tipping point.

Tim
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Understood, but I was asking if there was anything he had specifically identified or suspected as a likely culprit. We can all just wait a year or two after a recovery from a recession and then immediately start saying "we're overdue" until it happens, then claim "I told you so", lol. I'm not in disagreement about an economic slowdown (as I mentioned), I just don't know what will put us into full-blown recession. Auto loans are concerning, but generally people can sell expensive vehicles to ease some of the loan note to avoid default. The problem comes when lots of people lose their jobs (like a country-wide manufacturing slowdown) and are no longer able to afford payments on anything, expensive autos included.
 
FastEddieB said:
Falling back on my conditional acceptance of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Random Walk Theory...

Everything we’re discussing here is public information, already factored in by market players. So the market is exactly where it’s “supposed” to be, and at any given moment is just as likely to go up as down.

There’s always someone predicting Armageddon, and someday they might be right. Again, let me recommend this book for a glimpse into how random it all probably is:

48204238927_904b0f7f17.jpg
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Good book along with Black Swan and Antifragile.
 
FastEddieB said:
I read Black Swan. Do you have Antifragile?
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I do. He expands a lot of the concepts in Black Swan into other areas as well as the concept of systems that grown stronger when disturbed (which is Antifragile).
 
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