Real world: what percentage of approaches go missed?

Badger

Badger

Pattern Altitude
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Badger
I'm not talking training, etc.
in actual how often do you 'miss'?
 
I guess it depends upon how brave you are. I don't fly a lot of hard IFR and only have about 50 actual approaches in my logbook. Zero missed. But I don't push it.
 
Rarely, and mostly in training. When conditions allow, I take trainees to fields I know are below mins so they can get a "real" missed approach to experience what it's like to look up and see nothing, and have to make the timely decision to execute the missed, and then do so without busting MDA/DA or otherwise losing the bubble.

Operationally, missed approaches are rare for me because I don't normally take off without some reasonable assurance of arriving at my destination. If I were to guess, I'd say I probably don't miss "for real" more than once a year.
 
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Only time I've gone missed was doing a practice NDB when when we knew we wouldn't break out. It was for training and not a destination. Never gone missed for weather at a destination where I needed to land. Gone missed because ATC screwed the sequence but never for weather. So as a percentage I'd say less than 1 percent.
 
Ron Levy said:
Rarely, and mostly in training. When conditions allow, I take trainees to fields I know are below mins so they can get a "real" missed approach to experience what it's like to look up and see nothing, and have to make the timely decision to execute the missed, and then do so without busting MDA/DA or otherwise losing the bubble.

Operationally, missed approaches are rare for me because I don't normally take off without some reasonable assurance of arriving at my destination. If I were to guess, I'd say I probably don't miss "for real" more than once a year.
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Great info to a great question.

Do you recommend IFR rated pilots TRY taking a flight they know will end in a missed to their own personal minimums if given the opportunity (one airport fogged in, another with VFR weather)?
 
Did some actual missed approaches (ILS) in training - knew beforehand it was 100 ft ceilings.

Had 2 actual missed ILSes shortly after getting the rating. The second one was a "let's try that again" approach after the first miss.

I'm not sure I'd ever try an approach again after missing the first time.
 
So far none. It's already happened twice that if I had tried to get in at home, based on the reported conditions, I would definitely have had to miss. But I didn't try and opted for a nearby ILS to leave the plane and beg a ride back home.
 
I've gone missed once when the forecast of BKN040 ended up being OVC001. Another time coming into my home field I probably should have legally gone missed, but...
 
dans2992 said:
I'm not sure I'd ever try an approach again after missing the first time.
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A lot depends on why you missed. A lot of times the weather conditions may be in the process of changing. It may make sense to try it again, or it might be an exercise in futility. It is not always a solid layer at or below minimums.

I once (as a pax) in a CRJ went through 3 approaches trying to get into CVG. We finally landed on the third attempt. The first two misses were simply due to a freaking cloud being in the way of the runway. We broke out well above DH and you could clearly see the whole airport....except for the runway until the last approach.
 
Fearless Tower said:
A lot depends on why you missed. A lot of times the weather conditions may be in the process of changing. It may make sense to try it again, or it might be an exercise in futility. It is not always a solid layer at or below minimums.

I once (as a pax) in a CRJ went through 3 approaches trying to get into CVG. We finally landed on the third attempt. The first two misses were simply due to a freaking cloud being in the way of the runway. We broke out well above DH and you could clearly see the whole airport....except for the runway until the last approach.
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Similar thing happened to my dad. He was flying the DC 9 into Flint and went missed twice. Him and the captain decided to divert if they didn't make the next one. They ended up making it because the heat from the engines burned off some of the fog on the approach course
 
tehmightypirate said:
Great info to a great question.

Do you recommend IFR rated pilots TRY taking a flight they know will end in a missed to their own personal minimums if given the opportunity (one airport fogged in, another with VFR weather)?
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I've had something like four misses for weather and only one was a surprise. On the others I knew the reported wx was low enough that a landing was unlikely but I flew the approach anyway because the conditions were changing fairly rapidly, I had plenty of fuel, and a good alternate was nearby.

The surprise was when there was no local weather reporting but a couple nearby airports were indicating ceilings a few hundred feet above the mins where I hoped to land. I've also had a couple where the approach lights appeared no more than a few seconds before I needed to push the throttles up and IMO that's worse (from a safety perspective) than an unexpected miss.
 
Fearless Tower said:
A lot depends on why you missed. A lot of times the weather conditions may be in the process of changing. It may make sense to try it again, or it might be an exercise in futility. It is not always a solid layer at or below minimums.

I once (as a pax) in a CRJ went through 3 approaches trying to get into CVG. We finally landed on the third attempt. The first two misses were simply due to a freaking cloud being in the way of the runway. We broke out well above DH and you could clearly see the whole airport....except for the runway until the last approach.
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My current carrier allows us two attempts, then off to the alternate.
 
tehmightypirate said:
Do you recommend IFR rated pilots TRY taking a flight they know will end in a missed to their own personal minimums if given the opportunity (one airport fogged in, another with VFR weather)?
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As long as they have somewhere else to go where they know there will be better weather, absolutely yes. Even better to go somewhere it's right near mins (rather than socked in) so they don't know in advance which way the approach will end.
 
Ron Levy said:
As long as they have somewhere else to go where they know there will be better weather, absolutely yes. Even better to go somewhere it's right near mins (rather than socked in) so they don't know in advance which way the approach will end.
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For NP approaches (where misses are more likely IME) why not just artificially raise the entire approach, mins and all so that the MDA is right at the bases. Seems like that would provide the same experience while pretty much eliminating the likelihood that you wouldn't be able to get the airplane home.
 
gismo said:
For NP approaches (where misses are more likely IME) why not just artificially raise the entire approach, mins and all so that the MDA is right at the bases. Seems like that would provide the same experience while pretty much eliminating the likelihood that you wouldn't be able to get the airplane home.
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I suppose that might work, but I have bad feelings about trying to get the trainee to remember to use something other than what's on the chart. Buggers up VDP's, too.
 
I missed once in 20 years or so of flying instruments. At the time, Boeing Field had a back course to runway 31L with an MDA of 700 feet and an ILS to 13R with DH of 213 (IFIRC). Shot the back course, tootled along in the soup at 700 feet, began a climb at the MAP, flew out the front course, did a PT, and shot the ILS to land.

OTOH, I have caused instrument students to miss.

Bob Gardner
 
jordane93 said:
I know Delta lets their pilots make the decision to go missed how ever many times they feel like
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Considering most airlines carry minimum fuel, that may not be as much latitude as you might think.
 
Other than training, never. But, that's not saying much. Even with the IR I'm very conservative on weather. I want my wife to keep flying with me. :D
 
jordane93 said:
I know Delta lets their pilots make the decision to go missed how ever many times they feel like
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Depending upon alternate and fuel reserve, that depends. Besides, after a couple of missed approaches the passengers are tensing up, as well as risk factors are now increasing for the crew. Some battles are best fought later.
 
Needing to go missed is typically predictable prior to actually flying the approach.
I find that I typically go missed on about 20% of the flights into my home field due to 1700 agl MDA. For most other fields, the missed is much less common.
 
RotorAndWing said:
Depending upon alternate and fuel reserve, that depends. Besides, after a couple of missed approaches the passengers are tensing up, as well as risk factors are now increasing for the crew. Some battles are best fought later.
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Yep of course, obviously the pilots won't go missed 50 times. Don't airlines also have 2 alternate airports that they have to have fuel requirements as well?
 
Most airlines barely carry near the minimum fuel required to make it to destination. Carry less weight ... More fuel savings...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
 
jordane93 said:
Yep of course, obviously the pilots won't go missed 50 times. Don't airlines also have 2 alternate airports that they have to have fuel requirements as well?
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I think you are referring this rule:
Sec. 121.619

Alternate airport for destination: IFR or over-the-top: Domestic operations.

(a) No person may dispatch an airplane under IFR or over-the-top unless he lists at least one alternate airport for each destination airport in the dispatch release. When the weather conditions forecast for the destination and first alternate airport are marginal at least one additional alternate must be designated. However, no alternate airport is required if for at least 1 hour before and 1 hour after the estimated time of arrival at the destination airport the appropriate weather reports or forecasts, or any combination of them, indicate--
(1) The ceiling will be at least 2,000 feet above the airport elevation; and
(2) Visibility will be at least 3 miles.
(b) For the purposes of paragraph (a) of this section, the weather conditions at the alternate airport must meet the requirements of Sec. 121.625.
(c) No person may dispatch a flight unless he lists each required alternate airport in the dispatch release.
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So, it is possible, depending on weather, for an air carrier flight to have two, one, or even no alternate airports designated at dispatch.
 
MarkZ said:
Most airlines barely carry near the minimum fuel required to make it to destination. Carry less weight ... More fuel savings...
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They may carry only the minimum fuel required by regulation, but it's not going to be as little as your post suggests ("the minimum fuel required to make it to destination"). Part 121 still requires the same "departure-destination (and then to alternate if required) plus 45 minutes" that Part 91 requires. And when multiple alternates are required, the alternate fuel must be to the most distant alternate.
Sec. 121.639

Fuel supply: All domestic operations.

No person may dispatch or take off an airplane unless it has enough fuel--
(a) To fly to the airport to which it is dispatched;
(b) Thereafter, to fly to and land at the most distant alternate airport (where required) for the airport to which dispatched; and
(c) Thereafter, to fly for 45 minutes at normal cruising fuel consumption or, for certificate holders who are authorized to conduct day VFR operations in their operations specifications and who are operating nontransport category airplanes type certificated after December 31, 1964, to fly for 30 minutes at normal cruising fuel consumption for day VFR operations.
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What has disappeared to a large extent is the so-called "captain's fuel", where the captain could order more fuel than legally required based on his/her own judgment of the situation. That discretion has diminished or disappeared in many or most airlines.
 
Ron Levy said:
They may carry only the minimum fuel required by regulation, but it's not going to be as little as your post suggests ("the minimum fuel required to make it to destination"). Part 121 still requires the same "departure-destination (and then to alternate if required) plus 45 minutes" that Part 91 requires. And when multiple alternates are required, the alternate fuel must be to the most distant alternate.
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That is exactly what I meant to say, thank you.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
 
Badger said:
I'm not talking training, etc.
in actual how often do you 'miss'?
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Just a SWAG, but in almost thirty years in ATC I've had aircraft miss an approach perhaps a dozen times in a typical year.
 
Landing at traverse city KTVC, the sun was shining but we had a snow squall (few miles in diameter) pop up while on final to ILS 28 and go below minimums. Then the tower reported it had just cleared the west end of the airport and was moving south east. So they cleared us for a Visual circle to land on runway 18 (which is on the west side), they said just fly around the outside of the snow ball and you will have no problem making pattern for landing.

When we landed the lineman had snow on his jacket and stunned look on his face. He said it went from sunny to not being able to see his hand in front of his face to sunny again in a matter of 15 minutes.:yikes:
 
Ron Levy said:
They may carry only the minimum fuel required by regulation, but it's not going to be as little as your post suggests ("the minimum fuel required to make it to destination"). Part 121 still requires the same "departure-destination (and then to alternate if required) plus 45 minutes" that Part 91 requires. And when multiple alternates are required, the alternate fuel must be to the most distant alternate.
What has disappeared to a large extent is the so-called "captain's fuel", where the captain could order more fuel than legally required based on his/her own judgment of the situation. That discretion has diminished or disappeared in many or most airlines.
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The last airline I worked for still allowed "captains fuel." What I did notice was there seemed to be fewer captains willing to ask for fuel even though they knew it was a good idea to get it. Those less willing generally became willing after a couple of diversions that were preventable by just throwing on some extra fuel. It really depended on who answered the phone in dispatch as to how long the conversation lasted to get the extra fuel.
 
Have two missed at Appleton during OSH. Both on the same day with thunderstorms in the area. Had a turbo prop miss just in front of me on one.
 
Badger said:
I'm not talking training, etc.
in actual how often do you 'miss'?
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Not often when I wasn't expecting it. OTOH I've taken the proverbial "look-see" a few times in warm benign cloud followed by the "missed" when I had plenty of fuel aboard and with a solid gold alternate.
 
I think I've done as many weather related diversions as I have missed approaches now. Two last year were at the end of 9+ hour flights in international territory. That gets challenging quick!
 
Doesn't carrying a bit of extra fuel cost the airline much less than having to divert, sitting at an alternate field for hours without a gate, and making it back to the original destination hours late?

Had that happen due to a storm that closed the destination airport for 15 minutes. They didn't have enough fuel to hold.

Of course, it's then blamed "on the weather" and it's "not their fault".
 
Ron Levy said:
What has disappeared to a large extent is the so-called "captain's fuel", where the captain could order more fuel than legally required based on his/her own judgment of the situation. That discretion has diminished or disappeared in many or most airlines.
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And in instances where companies have declared "no additional fuel" it's been challenged, and the FAA has sided with the Captains.

The regulations under Domestic and Flag operations are a dual responsibility release, the captain and the dispatcher must agree on all conditions and mutually release the flight. Either one can decline the release but one can't over ride the other.

In "extra fuel", if the captain based upon his experience feels the need for additional fuel (often referred to as "contingency fuel") for delays, weather, etc then he has the option to add.

121.663 Responsibility for dispatch release: Domestic and flag operations.

Each certificate holder conducting domestic or flag operations shall prepare a dispatch release for each flight between specified points, based on information furnished by an authorized aircraft dispatcher. The pilot in command and an authorized aircraft dispatcher shall sign the release only if they both believe that the flight can be made with safety. The aircraft dispatcher may delegate authority to sign a release for a particular flight, but he may not delegate his authority to dispatch.


121.647 Factors for computing fuel required.

Each person computing fuel required for the purposes of this subpart shall consider the following:
(a) Wind and other weather conditions forecast.
(b) Anticipated traffic delays.
(c) One instrument approach and possible missed approach at destination.
(d) Any other conditions that may delay landing of the aircraft.
For the purposes of this section, required fuel is in addition to unusable fuel.




 
dans2992 said:
Doesn't carrying a bit of extra fuel cost the airline much less than having to divert, sitting at an alternate field for hours without a gate, and making it back to the original destination hours late?
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Maybe on that one particular flight, but when you average it out over all their flights all year, it probably doesn't pay off. You can be sure they have some really smart folks crunching the numbers to evaluate that, and if it was cheaper overall, they'd be doing it.
 
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