Pessimist view of GA

[steingar]

"Nerk" may not be an option for long. I just lost a family of 3 students via a Dear David email 2 days ago. Had not flown with them since 12/18/15. Totally unexpected. I have no students there any more and am thinking of hanging up my instructor wings. I have absolutely no choice but to find a job I don't want to do. The airport/FBO manager is not helping anything. Too old to care. One of the rental 172's has been down for 3 weeks because the A&P is too busy with on-field aircraft. So that leaves one plane to teach in.

GA is dying a slowly and agonizingly.

It is in our neck of the woods, but if you really want to do the gig you can relocate. Georgia was just fizzing with aviation activity, and we've already heard So Cal is too. OSU is building new hangars and has a long wait for the old ones, but I think they're the only ones around who can say that.

 

[Phoenix]

Golf is seeing a decline as well. Several golf courses are debating closure around here.

Why go outside for entertainment when you can sit on your ass and play video games?

The Atari 2600 is how old? Vanilla GA and golf are dying because they are boring. But hey maybe some of the closed golf courses can be turned back into airports.

 

[dell30rb]

"Nerk" may not be an option for long. I just lost a family of 3 students via a Dear David email 2 days ago. Had not flown with them since 12/18/15. Totally unexpected. I have no students there any more and am thinking of hanging up my instructor wings. I have absolutely no choice but to find a job I don't want to do. The airport/FBO manager is not helping anything. Too old to care. One of the rental 172's has been down for 3 weeks because the A&P is too busy with on-field aircraft. So that leaves one plane to teach in.

GA is dying a slowly and agonizingly.

David

You need to move. The flight schools around here are doing regular radio ads and are booked solid.

 

[MIFlyer]

Heck, I did all my own SEO, built my own site, own FB page, total cost, nada, zip, zilch.

Hi James! Sorry I wasnt' clear, i meant money, as in customers with high incomes, not FBO money to advertise

 

[Velocity173]

Well that depends on who's flying what :wink2:

As for closing airports, bad news for everyone, airports and the US airspace (the current in molested model) are #1 in the world, having small airports also is a life line for many people, if you get sick/injured and the wx prohibits a rotor wing from getting to you (doesn't take much) you'll wish you still had that nearby airport when you need a fixed wing medevac.

Or rotor wing. If the weather isn't good enough to shoot an IAP to the hospital, they can still do one to the airport. SPIFR RW is growing. Looks like I'll be doing the transition sooner than I expected.

 

[James331]

Or rotor wing. If the weather isn't good enough to shoot an IAP to the hospital, they can still do one to the airport. SPIFR RW is growing. Looks like I'll be doing the transition sooner than I expected.

Indeed.

But it still depends on the area.


FIKI

 

[flhrci]

You need to move. The flight schools around here are doing regular radio ads and are booked solid.

wish I could. flat broke. nothing left.

 

[Velocity173]

Indeed.

But it still depends on the area.


FIKI

Yep. FIKI is definitely an advantage on the FW side.

 

[mondtster]

There seems to be pockets of activity. In my local area the hangars are still full and people are keeping their airplanes in annual, but many of them are not being properly cared for and are being used very little. There is very little training going on as well, probably enough to keep one instructor busy full time, but that is about it. We don't even have an FBO nearby that has a 135 certificate anymore because nobody was using it.

However, about two or three hours away (by car) aviation is hopping. People are owning and operating nice aircraft, learning to fly, chartering flights, etc. A good friend of mine flew a ton last year, mostly hauling people or cargo around but did some instructing too.

I personally feel that aviation and local activity is directly linked to how strong the local economy is, and how prosperous the local businesses are. If businesses are doing good, aviation will do good. If not, aviation is probably going to be one of the first things impacted.

 

[SkyDog58]

No doubt!

 

[SkyDog58]

GA is alive in well in Southern California. The flight schools are absolutely packed and there aren't enough instructors to go around. They charge $70-100/hour here (70 on the low end) and even at those rates they are still booked through their entire workday.

Seriously? I left there in early 2011 and $50 seemed to be the going rate at the time. Hard to believe it has jumped that much.

 

[Cpt_Kirk]

Flying can be very boring. A 172 is extremely boring. Taking an airplane out to the practice area for some slow flight is boring. Flying to an airport 50 miles away with an 8,000' runway is boring.

The "wow" factor washes away pretty quickly. Add all of the bull**** regs and it makes it that that much worse. Most airplanes aren't anything to look at, either.

 

[Dan Thomas]

All those airplanes the OP says used to be tied down at the airport and aren't there now didn't just evaporate or go to the junkyard. They moved because the people that owned them moved to find work, or were sold to those who had work elsewhere. As somebody else said, it is strongly linked to the local economy. Dead towns have dead airports. New airplanes continue to be built, but probably not at a rate to maintain the registry numbers, yet E-ABs are appearing everywhere in large numbers, so the fleet is likely growing.

 

[James331]

Flying can be very boring. A 172 is extremely boring. Taking an airplane out to the practice area for some slow flight is boring. Flying to an airport 50 miles away with an 8,000' runway is boring.

The "wow" factor washes away pretty quickly. Add all of the bull**** regs and it makes it that that much worse. Most airplanes aren't anything to look at, either.

Meh, I've always had fun flying.

 

[Timbeck2]

I think Ted has a pretty wide facetious streak.

 

[Velocity173]

827,000 pilots in 1980 and less than 600,000 pilots today. The comments about healthy flight schools are only because people are looking for the dream flying job and not getting their license to continue private GA flying. The commercial sector is healthy. Private GA, not so much. Those that don't believe it weren't around in the 70s and 80s to see ramps full of GA aircraft. In small towns too.

Total GA flying hours have also decreased since 1980. Yes, cost in the primary reason. When I'm paying $900 for a mag that used to cost half that or $95 per hr shop rates that not so long ago were half that, you have a problem. The average middle class Joe who used to be able to afford GA, can no longer. Not to mention, there are far many more distractions today that demand time & money than decades ago.

So, a country that has a steady population increase but yet a decrease in pilot population. It's not pessimistic. It's just the reality of a dying private GA.

 

[Fearless Tower]

827,000 pilots in 1980 and less than 600,000 pilots today.

Out of curiosity, where does that 1980 number come from? Was that before the FAA started to scrub the database of inactive/deceased pilots?

 

[Jay Honeck]

There's a 5 year waiting list for hangars in the Austin TX area (KGTU).

That's due to airport mismanagement. Same problem at Port Aransas (KRAS), and its all self-inflicted.

In contrast, our airport (KTFP - Ingleside, TX) saw the demand and acted. A whole bunch of new hangars were built, and there is now no longer a waiting list.

It's the first airport I've been based at that is actually MANAGED. It's truly wonderful!

 

[Velocity173]

Out of curiosity, where does that 1980 number come from? Was that before the FAA started to scrub the database of inactive/deceased pilots?

Don't know. When did they start updating for deceased pilots?

I grew up around GA as a kid. Dad worked FSS and I'd go out to the airport and see ramps full of aircraft. I look at those same airports on Google Earth and see empty ramps. One has roughly the same number of aircraft only because ATP took over and is pumping pilots out the door for 121 jobs. Commercial ops will always survive because of demand.

Just look at EABs. Used to be new kits / plans coming out all the time. Rutan's stuff died out in the 80s when he stopped selling plans because of liability reasons. Glasair is nothing like they used to be. If it weren't for Chinese intervention, they'd be bankrupt right now. Velocity. I've been down there several times. Can't sell kits these days and the V-twin isn't going to be certified anytime soon. Vans is the only one really thriving. Not sure why...ugly.

 

[RotorDude]

Don't know. When did they start updating for deceased pilots?

I grew up around GA as a kid. Dad worked FSS and I'd go out to the airport and see ramps full of aircraft. I look at those same airports on Google Earth and see empty ramps. One has roughly the same number of aircraft only because ATP took over and is pumping pilots out the door for 121 jobs. Commercial ops will always survive because of demand.

Just look at EABs. Used to be new kits / plans coming out all the time. Rutan's stuff died out in the 80s when he stopped selling plans because of liability reasons. Glasair is nothing like they used to be. If it weren't for Chinese intervention, they'd be bankrupt right now. Velocity. I've been down there several times. Can't sell kits these days and the V-twin isn't going to be certified anytime soon. Vans is the only one really thriving. Not sure why...ugly.

Good post. Esp. the ugly part.
But seriously, I agree that from my own experience and perspective the trend is clear. GA is slowly dying. In the short term there are some benefits, like less congestion and often better reception by big iron FBOs (perhaps because the little guys are such a rarity there nowadays). But clearly this is not good for GA's future.
I have been nuts about aviation since age 0. It seems to me that the main motivator for kids that learn to fly nowadays is to quickly graduate to Big Iron to make money. Not that making money is bad, but the spirit of wanting to fly for self transportation or just for the fun of it seems to be on the decline. The higher prices are an excuse, IMO -- when we really want something, we figure out a way to do it.

 

[Velocity173]

Good post. Esp. the ugly part.
But seriously, I agree that from my own experience and perspective the trend is clear. GA is slowly dying. In the short term there are some benefits, like less congestion and often better reception by big iron FBOs (perhaps because the little guys are such a rarity there nowadays). But clearly this is not good for GA's future.
I have been nuts about aviation since age 0. It seems to me that the main motivator for kids that learn to fly nowadays is to quickly graduate to Big Iron to make money. Not that making money is bad, but the spirit of wanting to fly for self transportation or just for the fun of it seems to be on the decline. The higher prices are an excuse, IMO -- when we really want something, we figure out a way to do it.

Well that last sentence says it all. When friends hear what I've paid for two seperate engine overhauls or what I've paid for flight training, they're stunned. I do it and continue to do it because I find a way. Aviation either takes hold of you or it doesn't. For me, no electrons on a computer scene or some copter FPV will suffice. I got to be up there.

What I can't stand these days is the attitude that we have to get a certain group of people into aviation. Oh, we need more young folks. We need more women. We need more minorities. No, we need ALL walks of life in aviation. People that get that get a spark in them that can't be extinguished. Trying some sort of social experiment (MODAERO) for a particular group isn't going to work for the masses. It'll introduce young folks to aviation but when the harsh realities of continuing that interest take hold, most will fall by the waste side.

The simple fact is aviation is expensive and GA just doesn't stimulate people like it used to. Far too many other distractions to get involved in. In a way, I think the decline of GA is mirrored by the decline of the FSS. Young pilots today don't realize there used to be hundreds of them around the country. As GA activity dropped, so did the need to have a FSS at your local airport. That and the fact the FAA could save money by consolidating them to a few AFSSs. A lot of these smaller towers should go the way of the FSS too if it wasn't for the FAA trying to save jobs.

 

[RotorDude]

Well that last sentence says it all. When friends hear what I've paid for two seperate engine overhauls or what I've paid for flight training, they're stunned. I do it and continue to do it because I find a way. Aviation either takes hold of you or it doesn't. For me, no electrons on a computer scene or some copter FPV will suffice. I got to be up there.

What I can't stand these days is the attitude that we have to get a certain group of people into aviation. Oh, we need more young folks. We need more women. We need more minorities. No, we need ALL walks of life in aviation. People that get that get a spark in them that can't be extinguished. Trying some sort of social experiment (MODAERO) for a particular group isn't going to work for the masses. It'll introduce young folks to aviation but when the harsh realities of continuing that interest take hold, most will fall by the waste side.

The simple fact is aviation is expensive and GA just doesn't stimulate people like it used to. Far too many other distractions to get involved in. In a way, I think the decline of GA is mirrored by the decline of the FSS. Young pilots today don't realize there used to be hundreds of them around the country. As GA activity dropped, so did the need to have a FSS at your local airport. That and the fact the FAA could save money by consolidating them to a few AFSSs. A lot of these smaller towers should go the way of the FSS too if it wasn't for the FAA trying to save jobs.

I agree regarding the decline of the FSS, but mostly for sentimental values. I did enjoy walking into those places (mostly as a student pilot), being awed by their screens, maps, radios, and personal touch -- that was clearly aviation's Holy Grail. When they disappeared and were replaced by distant voices on an 800 number, it wasn't quite the same. Then they were all consolidated into the few big ones, and had no knowledge of your local area, by which point it became obvious to me that I'm better off just doing it all on my own.
But obviously today, even if GA were still as thriving as then, FSS would be superfluous to everyone, since your tablet and PC can give you just about everything you'd want to know at the click of a button.

I should add that I don't want to create an impression that all I see is doom and gloom in GA today. I see many things that make flying a lot more pleasurable and practical, like the low cost onboard weather and traffic, GPS color moving map navigation, as well as the aforementioned ability to pre-plan the trip with amazingly accurate weather picture compared to the past. Even the modern ability to get a rough but reasonable approximation of the weather to 4-5 days ahead (and more) makes flight planning (and therefore life planning if you fly a lot) much easier. So yes, GA may be declining in numbers, but it still has a lot to offer, and much of it is better than ever.

 

[hindsight2020]

Good post. Esp. the ugly part.
But seriously, I agree that from my own experience and perspective the trend is clear. GA is slowly dying. In the short term there are some benefits, like less congestion and often better reception by big iron FBOs (perhaps because the little guys are such a rarity there nowadays). But clearly this is not good for GA's future.
I have been nuts about aviation since age 0. It seems to me that the main motivator for kids that learn to fly nowadays is to quickly graduate to Big Iron to make money. Not that making money is bad, but the spirit of wanting to fly for self transportation or just for the fun of it seems to be on the decline. The higher prices are an excuse, IMO -- when we really want something, we figure out a way to do it.

There's not much money in piloting for the median aspirant, imo. For every widebody CA and FO out there there are thousands of participants that will never attain a fraction of that income generation and leverage in their working lives. The only reason people endure that is because of optimism bias and the crushing phobia of working a desk job. I hate riding a desk as much as the next pilot, but I'm not going to ruin my financial solvency or ability to retire at 57 over it. Labeling the former as "having REAL passion" is just petulant bull----t.

The real problem as I see it is, they can't afford the private stuff, so they acquiesce to the RON, terminal-schlepping, perma-commute-from-hell lifestyle in order to afford access to flying where privately they don't have the means to. Put another way, turbine snobbery notwithstanding, if people could afford the cirrus or pressurized 3 mile a minute cruiser, they'd pick their saturdays and sundays off and flying on their own time over sitting gear b^^^ on the right seat of an RJ or guppy fighting chronic boredom, 14 nights a month a' goner for 80-100k/yr (when amortized for 10 prior years of food stamp wages).

It's the cost of the private stuff that motivates most commercial aspirants to behave the way they do, myelf included, whether they care to admit it or not. It has [modern private GA] become largely outside the purview of the median income household. That wasn't the case in 1970; which stands to reason as it was circa that year that we began getting paid in credit lines in lieu of real wages, and those wages also got diluted amongst an army of women (good bad or indifferent) around the same time. We've been on a national labor surplus ever since. The rest is history.

Once open skies finally cracks the code and the part 121 major airline bastion loses the wage and sacred cow scope fight, then the whole thing will collapse. Flight training entrants will dry up and with it, piston GA will go into the history books. I'll try to hold on to my little Piper Jetprop dreams for as long as I can. At my income level, I just know I'll never get there, so I understand why people seek refuge in turning something fun into a dronish job.

 

[SixPapaCharlie]

Flying can be very boring. A 172 is extremely boring. Taking an airplane out to the practice area for some slow flight is boring. Flying to an airport 50 miles away with an 8,000' runway is boring.

The "wow" factor washes away pretty quickly. Add all of the bull**** regs and it makes it that that much worse. Most airplanes aren't anything to look at, either.

But...
Is it any more boring now than it was 30 years ago?
We are flying those same exact planes.

If it was once booming and now dying, I don't think boring is a factor.
If it is boring now, then it must have been boring then too.

 

[FormerHangie]

There do seem to be a lot of these sorts of threads popping up lately.

If you look at the FAA Airmen statistics, you'll see that student pilots skew young, and private pilots skew older. The largest age group for student pilots is 16-29, and the largest age group of private and sport pilots is in the 50-69 age group. The number of student pilots falls off quickly once you get past age 30, there are more student pilots aged 20 to 24 than there are 40 and over, and the private pilots aged 50-69 make up 45% of all private pilots. As these folks age out of flying, the generations that will replace them are considerably smaller. It's also likely that the number of ATPs will exceed the number of private ticket holders by the start of the next decade.

From what I can tell, there are two motivations to learning to fly, either it thrills you to be aloft, or you want to use the airplane to go somewhere, and I suspect the go somewhere group is the larger of the two. So, who's a good candidate for that group? Someone who has a sufficient income to maintain a share of an airplane, and has a fairly substantial travel budget, a desire or reason to travel regionally on a regular basis, and has the schedule flexibility to do so. I'm thinking that's not all that many people.

I have a sneaking suspicion that many of the pilots that used to fly back in the 80's and 90's were either business owners or were self employed. Unfortunately, the share of GDP in this country that is going to small or recently formed companies has been declining since about 1980, just about the same time that aviation began its decline. http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/05/declining-business-dynamism-litan. As an employee, I'm expected to be in the office between 8 and 5:30 all week, and I can tell you that even if we had the money to go out of town on a frequent basis, I'm just not interested in doing so. I get home Friday night between 6:00 and 6:30 most weeks, and I have no interest in packing up to go somewhere. I suspect there are lots of others who feel the same way.

Most people don't have the need for GA, and it's too expensive for them anyway.

 

[wilkersk]

Thanks you made me google tamagotchis

People prefer to play with their tamagotchis than to drive or fly.

I'm gonna fight the urge. I'm guessing its some virtual pet or something equally dumb (IMHO) thing.

 

[denverpilot]

I've been involved in a number of "unpopular" or "dying" hobbies in my lifetime. Doesn't really matter at all.

Either you enjoy something and it meets your dollars to fun ratio, or it doesn't.

 

[hindsight2020]

I've been involved in a number of "unpopular" or "dying" hobbies in my lifetime. Doesn't really matter at all.

Either you enjoy something and it meets your dollars to fun ratio, or it doesn't.

Oh the dollars to fun ratio is there for me, it's the dollars that are missing.

 

[Dav8or]

I'm gonna fight the urge. I'm guessing its some virtual pet or something equally dumb (IMHO) thing.

I'll help you and anybody else resisting the urge-

A Tamagotchi is a keychain-sized virtual pet simulation game for people of all ages. The characters are colorful and simplistically designed creatures based on animals, objects, or people.

Now that I know about this wonder of the 20th century, I'm selling my plane. Clearly this is what life's about.

 

[Dav8or]

Lots of people here keep saying GA is "dying". That is not true. GA is declining, or shrinking, but it is not dying. It will never die as long as the government allows ordinary amateurs to fly. One just has to look to foreign countries where costs are double or more and regulations quite crushing and you still see people flying GA. It will continue on here too, but at a very much smaller scale, with a lot fewer airports and many more restrictions and regulations.

I personally envision a rebirth of GA and a renaissance of personal flight in the not too distant future. IMO, it will happen when electric propulsion becomes practical. Eventually somebody somewhere will create an electric storage, or conversion device that has near the energy density of gasoline for use in cars. When they do, it will rapidly spread to airplanes and flight will be reborn.

The evolution of the airplane is almost always driven by the propulsion system more than anything else and electric is the next step for small GA planes.

 

[James331]

There's not much money in piloting for the median aspirant, imo. For every widebody CA and FO out there there are thousands of participants that will never attain a fraction of that income generation and leverage in their working lives. The only reason people endure that is because of optimism bias and the crushing phobia of working a desk job. I hate riding a desk as much as the next pilot, but I'm not going to ruin my financial solvency or ability to retire at 57 over it. Labeling the former as "having REAL passion" is just petulant bull----t.

The real problem as I see it is, they can't afford the private stuff, so they acquiesce to the RON, terminal-schlepping, perma-commute-from-hell lifestyle in order to afford access to flying where privately they don't have the means to. Put another way, turbine snobbery notwithstanding, if people could afford the cirrus or pressurized 3 mile a minute cruiser, they'd pick their saturdays and sundays off and flying on their own time over sitting gear b^^^ on the right seat of an RJ or guppy fighting chronic boredom, 14 nights a month a' goner for 80-100k/yr (when amortized for 10 prior years of food stamp wages).

It's the cost of the private stuff that motivates most commercial aspirants to behave the way they do, myelf included, whether they care to admit it or not. It has [modern private GA] become largely outside the purview of the median income household. That wasn't the case in 1970; which stands to reason as it was circa that year that we began getting paid in credit lines in lieu of real wages, and those wages also got diluted amongst an army of women (good bad or indifferent) around the same time. We've been on a national labor surplus ever since. The rest is history.

Once open skies finally cracks the code and the part 121 major airline bastion loses the wage and sacred cow scope fight, then the whole thing will collapse. Flight training entrants will dry up and with it, piston GA will go into the history books. I'll try to hold on to my little Piper Jetprop dreams for as long as I can. At my income level, I just know I'll never get there, so I understand why people seek refuge in turning something fun into a dronish job.

Not very accurate.

Buying something like a 7AC or 8A, burning 5gph of mogas, dirt simple systems and being small enough to share a hangar, most folks can easily afford that.

When you break it down anyone who can afford a sports like snowmobile, quads, etc, can somewhat easily get into aircraft ownership.


As far as "dronish" jobs flying, not all are like that, frankly I have zero idea when or where I'm going to fly at work till the tones go off and I can say that my crew and I have directly saved a few lives, not something you can easily replicate flying a desk. Add to that I love my job, actually I don't really "work" aside from some boring computer corp style training we have to do, I quite enjoy.


It seems like it's the folks who never followed their dreams and acquiesced to working a job they hate for money, those are the folks who seem to always say flying is a horrible job.

End of the day, we spend a very large portion of our lives at work, I'd rather get paid less and enjoy all that time, than get paid even double and hate my life. YMMV

 

[GeorgeC]

I've been involved in a number of "unpopular" or "dying" hobbies in my lifetime. Doesn't really matter at all.

Either you enjoy something and it meets your dollars to fun ratio, or it doesn't.

I wonder if they have this discussion on amateur radio, model railroading, or other technical/niche hobby forums. IIRC AMA already peaked, which implies to me that it's not driven by dollars.

 

[Dav8or]

I wonder if they have this discussion on amateur radio, model railroading, or other technical/niche hobby forums. IIRC AMA already peaked, which implies to me that it's not driven by dollars.

Vintage and antique cars too. Even hot rods. Cars that are the very essence of youth are also seeing declines in popularity although they will be around a good long while yet. The younger generations have little interest in old cars, or even cars at all. Those hobbies are shrinking as the Boomers die off also.

 

[denverpilot]

I wonder if they have this discussion on amateur radio, model railroading, or other technical/niche hobby forums. IIRC AMA already peaked, which implies to me that it's not driven by dollars.

Yes they do. At least in Amateur radio circles. I can't speak for railroading or anything other than maybe electronics builders and hobbyists.

Before pricing and packaging changes to switch from having to dig up your own Microchip PIC or Atmel AVR device and make your own circuit boards, and instead simply go buy a cheap arduino board pre-populated or more powerful things like a Raspberry Pi or BeagleBone Black, complete with GPIO pin headers and software already written to drive them... Those forums also regularly lamented about how the electronics hobby was "dying".

Nobody wanted to put in the time to make small boards and program in assembly or C to toggle bits and voltages on a pin. It wasn't hard but it looked hard to some.

Meanwhile Amateur radio is still around and friends here have built modern microwave backbones for data, run classes for folks on how various analog RF stuff works, yadda yadda. And it's doing fine.

Same with electronics hobby, tons of folks playing with those toys.

Aviation has always brought with it both a requirement for a fairly hefty but not insurmountable skillset and knowledge set, and a very expensive price tag. But a decent return on investment for that price if your goal was simply to gain those knowledge levels and skills. Some of the other uses of aviation at the personal level are more dubious in value, such as "travel" and what not. But they're still accomplishable goals for the do it yourself crowd.

None of the above is ever going to have mass market appeal. The closest aviation got to that would be the 70s and many of the claims of the sellers of aircraft were dubious at best. We've all seen the cutaway pictures of all the happy suited up businessmen enjoying their ride in the back seat of a Cherokee Six.

Will automation and convenience along with vertical takeoff products bring back mass appeal to flying? I doubt it. The masses want to live on 1/4 acre of land with a giant three story house that only two passes of a lawnmower fit between. That's not very aviation friendly.

But will it die? Probably not. Losing all support for airports would be the real measure of that.

 

[Jay Honeck]

End of the day, we spend a very large portion of our lives at work, I'd rather get paid less and enjoy all that time, than get paid even double and hate my life. YMMV

Amen, brother. Truer words were never written!

 

[paflyer]

Vintage and antique cars too. Even hot rods. Cars that are the very essence of youth are also seeing declines in popularity although they will be around a good long while yet. The younger generations have little interest in old cars, or even cars at all. Those hobbies are shrinking as the Boomers die off also.

EPA effectively killed that activity off.

Plus kids don't count the seconds until their sixteenth birthday anymore so they could get their driving permits. "Social" media forced that change.

 

[paflyer]

I personally envision a rebirth of GA and a renaissance of personal flight in the not too distant future. IMO, it will happen when electric propulsion becomes practical. Eventually somebody somewhere will create an electric storage, or conversion device that has near the energy density of gasoline for use in cars. When they do, it will rapidly spread to airplanes and flight will be reborn.

The evolution of the airplane is almost always driven by the propulsion system more than anything else and electric is the next step for small GA planes.

Why do you think this is the "magic bullet?" If anyone turns physics on its head and creates energy storage density on par with hydrocarbons, what make you think it won't be as expensive as petro?

 

[RotorDude]

Why do you think this is the "magic bullet?" If anyone turns physics on its head and creates energy storage density on par with hydrocarbons, what make you think it won't be as expensive as petro?

Presumably because you'd be able to recharge your plane's batteries using solar panels, either on your wings, or nearby. But even today's electric grid has far cheaper energy prices than gasoline, and that ratio is unlikely to change much.

 

[Phoenix]

EPA effectively killed that activity off.

Plus kids don't count the seconds until their sixteenth birthday anymore so they could get their driving permits. "Social" media forced that change.

Ticketing the crap out of kids forced that change. Oh and the insurance surcharges that go with the tickets. Cars have become oppression machines. As to valuing the old ones, car guys will lucky if any of that junk makes it to the museum. Buddy of mine(mid 40's) was just happily ruminating on the idea that many boomers have bought their last new cars so in the near future if they want to sell any new cars they are going to have to make them better. Or less stupid at least.

 

[paflyer]

Presumably because you'd be able to recharge your plane's batteries using solar panels, either on your wings, or nearby. But even today's electric grid has far cheaper energy prices than gasoline, and that ratio is unlikely to change much.

Until everyone is charging their electric cars, airplanes, lawnmowers, RVs, trucks, etc., etc....