PA 28-235 Down in Illinois, 4 Dead, 5/31/2020

sourdough44 said:
https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/101348/pdf

 Here’s the final, both wings separated at the root. They come up with a 4.72 G pullout, 35 kts above Vne. Just skimming though, seems to go in the ‘flat-hatting’ category, sorry for family & friends.
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Thanks for posting; this one was on my list to follow up on occasionally. Not to be too nit-picky, but this is the factual, not the final, and they haven't come up with a final probable cause as yet, right?

One thing that did catch my attention that I don't fully understand...They mention the normal category load limit of 3.8 G's, and the 'ultimate load factor" then being 5.7G, 1.5x. Google tells me that the airframe must be able to withstand that for 3 seconds. The said the highest load calculated by the data they have was 4.72G. Does that mean they suspect the wing spars may not have been as strong as required by regulation? Looks like about 15s from the start of trouble to the breakup. They mention getting data off a Stratus...I didn't know they recorded anything. Perhaps the data is insufficient to reach any conclusions?

Flat-hatting....that's a new one for me.
 
sourdough44 said:
https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/101348/pdf

 Here’s the final, both wings separated at the root. They come up with a 4.72 G pullout, 35 kts above Vne. Just skimming though, seems to go in the ‘flat-hatting’ category, sorry for family & friends.
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This has got to be one of the crappiest reports I’ve ever read. It says nothing. NTSB could not even be bothered to travel to the accident site??

I mean what do you think happened, turning left and right banking at high bank angles, reports of the aircraft up and down by a witness? I mean I’m no expert but the airplane needs wings to turn and gain altitude right??? At the end due to nose dive over Vne the wings separated, ok I get that. Sounded like the spam can eroded and the passengers turned into skydivers without parachutes? 4pax airplanes do not hold 4 adults is what I’m thinking. The airframe TT was low in the 2xxx’s.
 
This is truly a spooky, tragic, report. A healthy and recently experienced private pilot, flying a perfectly good airplane from small town airport to small town airport, over flat land, on a beautiful Summer day, lasted about 30 minutes before losing control and spiralling in. Huh? What happened? Why the wild gyrations? Did it just fly out from under him?

This should have been an easy, enjoyable, flight. In a minute, the wings were coming off.
 
I didn’t see the ‘factual’ verses ‘final’ report part, sorry.

They do seem to have precise flight profile readings from the Stratus then correlated with ADS info & possibly other sources. Then it’s factual that the wings came off before the site of the crash. If there was any evidence of ‘corrosion failure’ or similar, I’d think that would be mentioned.


I liked that video linked above. No doubt Murf would have trouble with the ‘Hogan Test’ today.
 
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Jim K said:
They mention the normal category load limit of 3.8 G's, and the 'ultimate load factor" then being 5.7G, 1.5x. Google tells me that the airframe must be able to withstand that for 3 seconds. The said the highest load calculated by the data they have was 4.72G. Does that mean they suspect the wing spars may not have been as strong as required by regulation?
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I'm curious about this too. However at the time of structural failure the aircraft appears to be 29 kts above VNE and from 14 CFR 25.337:

"(b) The positive limit maneuvering load factor n for any speed up to Vn may not be less than 2.1 + 24,000/ (W + 10,000) except that n may not be less than 2.5 and need not be greater than 3.8 - where W is the design maximum takeoff weight."

However I can't find the definition for "Vn" . Is it VNO, VNE, something else? Is there anyone that can clarify what Vn means? In any case I'm guessing Vn <= VNE so I doubt you can infer that the spars failed prematurely...
 
idahoflier said:
and from 14 CFR 25.337:
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FYI: Part 25 is for transport aircraft. The 235 above is a CAR 3 aircraft with a couple Part 23 additions. The other point when figuring failure rates is the sequence of failure. In general, given both wings failed at the same time takes that sequence to the next level in most cases. As to determining what is n and Vn there are definitions to these within that guidance.
 
Bell206 said:
FYI: Part 25 is for transport aircraft. The 235 above is a CAR 3 aircraft with a couple Part 23 additions. The other point when figuring failure rates is the sequence of failure. In general, given both wings failed at the same time takes that sequence to the next level in most cases. As to determining what is n and Vn there are definitions to these within that guidance.
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Ooops! Thanks for pointing that out!
 
What are lazy 8s? Isn’t that 360 1 direction immediately into 360 the other with some altitude and bank changes? Chandelles?

New Pilot maybe showboating and it got away from him with the fully loaded plane?
 
mandm said:
Gotta love the government. They redact the pilots name from the toxicology report but the file name includes the pilots name. :confused:

View attachment 105152
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Well his obituary says:

"He enjoyed skydiving, motorcycle riding, climbing buildings, his airplane..." and that he lived life full throttle."

Sounds like straight and level probably wasn't his thing. I'm going with "murder-suicide by recklessness" on this one.
 
The first thing that popped into my head was two people fighting over the controls.
 
Kristin said:
The first thing that popped into my head was two people fighting over the controls.
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I was wondering too, since I’m making things up . . . Maybe he let the right seat fly a bit, similar but untrained personality right seats and they over controlled? Came apart upon recovery?

If you buy a brand new $500k pa28 today, is the spar the exact same construction?
 
No disrespect to the deceased pilot intended, but you would have to be incredibly heavy handed and inexperienced to get this result in a Cherokee 235, especially in cruise flight. It is incredibly docile, even at full gross weight.

Although it is pure speculation, I wonder if this could be a pilot (and passengers) incapacitation due to CO ...
 
Sound like Showing off doing 60deg turns pulling up a touch to few the g’s a bit harder. You get the steep turn stall you learn about but never have done. Now you are likely in a spin for which you have no clue how to get out of
With seconds to figure out wtf just happened and just instinctively pull-up. Has less than a full weeks worth of PIC time. Didn’t have enough time/experience to realize how dangerous it can be to be near the limits.
Sad for everyone. Especially passengers.
 
David235 said:
No disrespect to the deceased pilot intended, but you would have to be incredibly heavy handed and inexperienced to get this result in a Cherokee 235, especially in cruise flight. It is incredibly docile, even at full gross weight.

Although it is pure speculation, I wonder if this could be a pilot (and passengers) incapacitation due to CO ...
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Sometimes people make mistakes. As pilots we try to look for technical root cause..
-was it CO?
-did he have a medical event?
-did a control surface malfunction
..etc

..but sometimes at the end of the day people just make mistakes. We like to think of ourselves, pilots, as infallible, 'surely he wouldn't have forgotten to sump the gas' but sometimes crap happens
 
benyflyguy said:
Sound like Showing off doing 60deg turns pulling up a touch to few the g’s a bit harder. You get the steep turn stall you learn about but never have done. Now you are likely in a spin for which you have no clue how to get out of
With seconds to figure out wtf just happened and just instinctively pull-up. Has less than a full weeks worth of PIC time. Didn’t have enough time/experience to realize how dangerous it can be to be near the limits.
Sad for everyone. Especially passengers.
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Not saying you are wrong in general terms but pulling up in a spin can’t over stress the airplane. It’s in a stalled condition.
 
Terry M - 3CK (Chicago) said:
I was wondering too, since I’m making things up . . . Maybe he let the right seat fly a bit, similar but untrained personality right seats and they over controlled? Came apart upon recovery?

If you buy a brand new $500k pa28 today, is the spar the exact same construction?
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Not exact same (I don't think). But similar construction. If you look at the AD for the Piper spar, none of the 236(Dakota) were were effected, however the 235 was. That despite the Dakota having a 3' longer wingspan. Thought I had read the Dakota spar was significantly beefier and why it wasn't effected.
 
Some of these ideas are really reaching. CO poisoning in the middle of summer, spontaneously after a perfectly executed 180° turn? Don't think so. Here's my theory. The left 180 is a clearing turn. This is followed deliberately by some kind of ill-conceived homebrew aerobatic maneuver by someone who just wanted an adrenaline rush.
 
dmspilot said:
This is followed deliberately by some kind of ill-conceived homebrew aerobatic maneuver by someone who just wanted an adrenaline rush.
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As in not planned and spontaneous… it’s the origin of all “hold my beer” moments.
With the limited information available your theory is plausible and more likely than many of the ideas offered.
 
David235 said:
No disrespect to the deceased pilot intended, but you would have to be incredibly heavy handed and inexperienced to get this result in a Cherokee 235, especially in cruise flight. It is incredibly docile, even at full gross weight.

Although it is pure speculation, I wonder if this could be a pilot (and passengers) incapacitation due to CO ...
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No CO incapacitation, tested for in the Tox report. See Carboxyhemoglobin = Not Detected.

""Carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) is a stable complex of carbon monoxide that forms in red blood cells when carbon monoxide is inhaled. COHb should be measured if carbon monoxide or methylene chloride poisoning is suspected."
 
Any chance that piece of property had any significance to any of the deceased? CO? Not a chance. Wings failing in flight? Possibly. But This looks like a steep maneuver that got away from him.
 
You really have to mishandle an aircraft to generate that kind of force.

Here is a pic from the G meter in my Decathlon a few weeks ago. I was practicing Split Esses. That is a half roll to inverted, followed by a half loop downwards. I kept full power in throughout the maneuver, and had the stick nearly fully deflected to the rear. Airspeed was in the yellow arc at the bottom and I was pulling hard with both hands. I took a picture because in 100+ hours of aerobatics this is the most force I have ever managed to generate. And I pull hard.

PXL_20220220_230048228.jpg
 
Racerx said:
Any chance that piece of property had any significance to any of the deceased? CO? Not a chance. Wings failing in flight? Possibly. But This looks like a steep maneuver that got away from him.
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Not CO poisoning Tested and was negative.
Not wings failing from normal flight. Witness saw plane break apart as it was coming down (..as a result of for sure).
80 hour pilot in high performance plane most likely doing maneuvers in a high performance plane, at low speed... seems most likely scenario.

I fly a Saratoga, and have a few hundred hours on it... to be honest I dont even like putting it in a 45 degree turn when I am doing training. At 45 degrees you really have to watch the speed and pull back relatively hard to keep it under control. You either don't pull back enough or ignore the speed for just a short time distracted by passengers.. and you are flying close to disaster. So sad seems like a great bunch of guys and could be any of us.
 
I was making a fire in the woodstove the other day, using an old newspaper. I saw reference to 3 fatal motorcycle accidents, skimmed through. The 1st the guy ran a stop sign, got hit by a passing car. The second, the rider hit the motorcycle ahead of him, went down, hit his head hard. The 3rd, somewhat similar, but don’t have the details. What does this have to do with an aviation accident?

I think motorcycle riding & flying has similarities, to do it safely long term, one must stay solidly on the defensive side. One hears the adage of, ‘don’t fly the plane somewhere your mind hasn’t already been’. Of course the potential for Mr Murphy is always there, something surprising from the far left field.

I’m a bit struck by the low total pilot time with this accident pilot, ‘The Killing Zone’ sadly comes to mind.

9B928308-2CEE-4886-90DD-FE16FFC6BD17.jpeg
 
I don't mind steep turns in a Cherokee. I've done *close* to Vne in a Cherokee, too. But I don't want to do both of those things at the same time, ever.
 
I’m struck by the ‘94 hours TT’ as a pilot. One would hope giving your buddies a straight & level, smooth flight would if been enough.

I think the adage of, ‘you don’t even know, what you don’t know’ applies.
 
sourdough44 said:
I’m struck by the ‘94 hours TT’ as a pilot. One would hope giving your buddies a straight & level, smooth flight would if been enough.

I think the adage of, ‘you don’t even know, what you don’t know’ applies.
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I remember when this one happened, I looked up the pilot's facebook page (I'm local to the pilot's home field). His facebook showed him doing risky stuff like bungee jumping, etc...94 hours tt (shakes head)..."you don't know what you don't know" applies for sure.

Along the same vein of "you don't know what you don't know" is when friends or family come along (as they did in this thread) and say things like "no way was this intentional"...I wouldn't say that about anyone in any crash. I might say "I doubt it was such-and-such" but to put an absolute on the statement only shows an incapacity to see or believe the truth.
 
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Albany Tom said:
I don't mind steep turns in a Cherokee. I've done *close* to Vne in a Cherokee, too. But I don't want to do both of those things at the same time, ever.
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I did 45* low G turns near Vne in an Acher. Once. Then I called my CFII and started IR training the very next day. Never again.
 
I'm rather impressed with all the data the stratus was able to give them.
 
Bill said:
I did 45* low G turns near Vne in an Acher. Once. Then I called my CFII and started IR training the very next day. Never again.
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I was looking at the logbook. Less than 100hrs total time and only about 20hrs on high performance. One of his last flights on 5/24 and his second to last entry...he logged "Steep" turns practice. Ughhh...tough to see that.
 
Rare is the fellow would “believes it could happen to him” before the hair starts to grey.
 
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