OPEN THE SCHOOLS?

[Doc Holliday]

Ok so you believe the fake reports and I’ll believe the real ones. The media source I’m quoting by the way is Dr. Birx who uses the 1 in 1000 number two days ago, so if you think she’s making the numbers up then fine. Again it’s not my job to convince people who are living in your little bubble the situation is serious. I have someone I know in the situation directly and the report this person gave me confirms the situation as terrible. I’m just really curious what satisfaction people seem to get from marginalizing the impacts here in New York. Honestly if you don’t live here I’m curious why you even care to contribute to the “it’s no big deal” type of mindset. Do you think people are making this up?

I don't succumb to hysteria.

 

[jspilot]

I don't succumb to hysteria.

Then do me and those around you a favor and at least stay inside your house. I was very skeptical for a really long time and my opinion has changed completely. Also, do those of us a favor who are actually impacted by this a favor and stop spreading your self aggrandizing “I’m better than you because I am not buying into reality” message to those that want to hear it. Your not impressing me or likely a lot of others.

 

[schmookeeg]

Then do me and those around you a favor and at least stay inside your house. I was very skeptical for a really long time and my opinion has changed completely. Also, do those of us a favor who are actually impacted by this a favor and stop spreading your self aggrandizing “I’m better than you because I am not buying into reality” message to those that want to hear it. Your not impressing me or likely a lot of others.

I'm sequestered at home, because it costs me very little to do so, and I don't like people very much anyway.

I think when all this is over, we're going to have a LOT of folks who thought the doctors all cried wolf and booted them out of jobs and routines for little or no gain. And that means we're not going to listen very well next time they warn us.

Sadly, I think this is going to be true even if the virus is as bad as they said and they reacted perfectly and changed the curve and avoided another black death.

The people who question the reality as-presented impress me. They're at least cogitating instead of bleating.

 

[Ghery]

Our less than stellar governor ordered all non-essential business to close, then put out a list of essential business. A list of non-essential business would be much shorter.

Yours too? I know the governor of the state of Washington is certainly less than stellar, in many ways. And he did the same. The list of non-essential businesses would be much shorter here, too.

 

[jspilot]

I'm sequestered at home, because it costs me very little to do so, and I don't like people very much anyway.

I think when all this is over, we're going to have a LOT of folks who thought the doctors all cried wolf and booted them out of jobs and routines for little or no gain. And that means we're not going to listen very well next time they warn us.

Sadly, I think this is going to be true even if the virus is as bad as they said and they reacted perfectly and changed the curve and avoided another black death.

The people who question the reality as-presented impress me. They're at least cogitating instead of bleating.

What frustrates me is the lack of sacrifice people are willing to make nowadays. For multiple years Americans went to war and fought and died on battle fields during World Wars, Vietnam, Korea, Iraq ( something I proudly teach about each year) and it’s too much to ask people to stay at home and sacrifice a few weeks of pay. Give it up already— perspective people— important to remember at times like this that this is nothing compared to that.

 

[Ted]

I really hope high school seniors get to have a real graduation ceremony. It’s a really big part of their lives and symbolic on so many levels.

Meanwhile I’m sitting here going “What’s the big deal with them not getting a graduation?” Nearly 20 years later I don’t think of mine hardly at all. Didn’t think of it much nearly 20 minutes later either.

My senior year I watched my city get attacked by terrorists and watched my friends lose their parents, uncles, siblings, cousins. Didn’t get a graduation ceremony? Don’t have much sympathy there.

 

[jspilot]

Meanwhile I’m sitting here going “What’s the big deal with them not getting a graduation?” Nearly 20 years later I don’t think of mine hardly at all. Didn’t think of it much nearly 20 minutes later either.

My senior year I watched my city get attacked by terrorists and watched my friends lose their parents, uncles, siblings, cousins. Didn’t get a graduation ceremony? Don’t have much sympathy there.

I was a freshman in college when those events took place you reference so we are about the same age( and from not too far apart.) High school graduation is a big deal whether it mattered to you or not. Maybe school was easy for you, maybe you took it for granted, maybe you were just like a lot of teenage kids where you don't really think about significance of events much but the reality is for a lot of people, especially parents and those students who had to actually work really hard to graduate, the ceremony means something and is a meaningful moment to many.

Don’t forget, for nearly 60% of the nation, a High School diploma is the only piece of paper they will ever obtain that deals with formal education.

 

[Ted]

I was a freshman in college when those events took place you reference so we are about the same age( and from not too far apart.) High school graduation is a big deal whether it mattered to you or not. Maybe school was easy for you, maybe you took it for granted, maybe you were just like a lot of teenage kids where you don't really think about significance of events much but the reality is for a lot of people, especially parents and those students who had to actually work really hard to graduate, the ceremony means something and is a meaningful moment to many.

Don’t forget, for nearly 60% of the nation, a High School diploma is the only piece of paper they will ever obtain that deals with formal education.

It sounds like it’s a big deal for you. I’ve been through lots of ceremonies, none of which have actually impacted my life. What led up to them and what happened after them that mattered.

So, again, I don’t have much sympathy for these seniors. Sucks and all, but not a big deal in the grand scheme. My classmates whose loved ones died at the beginning of senior year, I feel sorry for.

You talk about being frustrated with how Americans aren’t willing to sacrifice - many high school grads go off to war where they will die and lose friends, brothers and sisters. That’s a big deal. Losing your high school graduation ceremony is a minor sacrifice in comparison.

 

[Everskyward]

Meanwhile I’m sitting here going “What’s the big deal with them not getting a graduation?” Nearly 20 years later I don’t think of mine hardly at all. Didn’t think of it much nearly 20 minutes later either.

I wanted to skip mine, but got a lecture from my aunt (who almost never expressed her opinion about what I should do) that I should go "for my mom". So I did. I'm glad I went, not because I enjoyed or remember it so much, but I'm glad I got talked out of being a little #$%^&.

 

[Ted]

I wanted to skip mine, but got a lecture from my aunt (who almost never expressed her opinion about what I should do) that I should go "for my mom". So I did. I'm glad I went, not because I enjoyed or remember it so much, but I'm glad I got talked out of being a little #$%^&.

This is a good point. I’m sure my ceremonies meant much more to my mom than they ever did to me.

And, well, you know how I feel about my mom. So maybe I should’ve skipped.

 

[455 Bravo Uniform]

It’s a shame that some schools have cancelled the remaining semester completely.

Here the school district started spring break a week early (last week), then they have spring break (this week), and get back to the books a few days later than normal next Wednesday via online learning.

Such a waste. At least salvage what you can. Everyone compromise and go online for now. I don’t understand it, but maybe someone can explain it and I’ll change my opinion.

I didn’t know I could reply to myself...

Thinking about it, I suppose one of the considerations is that in some districts, student computer access and internet may not be available. In our district, all of the kids have school supplied laptops. And we are fortunate to have internet access, albeit it slow, but we take it for granted.

 

[Matthew]

Thinking about it, I suppose one of the considerations is that in some districts, student computer access and internet may not be available. In our district, all of the kids have school supplied laptops. And we are fortunate to have internet access, albeit it slow, but we take it for granted.

My daughter's school district (she's a HS teacher) is in a very rural area. Reliable, high speed, internet isn't something that's widely available. Add in the problem of one computer in the house that's shared with the rest of the school age siblings and maybe a parent who now has to work at home, and the logistics can be pretty tough.

She'll find out how it works, they are scheduled to go live with on-line classes starting Monday and going through the end of the school year.

 

[ytodd]

The conditions are so bad that they are bringing reefer trucks to hospitals to store the dead bodies and according to Fox News last night, the doctors describe the situation in hospitals as “hell.”

Trying to understand this. Per nyc.gov data, deaths per day in just NYC in 2018 was 158. In a week's time that is 1106 deaths, just in NYC. Right now (depending on the source) the number of deaths in the last 3 weeks from COVID-19 in NYC is between 450-500. How does that relate to the need for "reefer trucks"?

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Trying to understand this. Per nyc.gov data, deaths per day in just NYC in 2018 was 158. In a week's time that is 1106 deaths, just in NYC. Right now (depending on the source) the number of deaths in the last 3 weeks from COVID-19 in NYC is between 450-500. How does that relate to the need for "reefer trucks"?

Maybe everyone else didn't get the memo that they were supposed to stop dying?

So, figure they normally have 1106 deaths per week, they're probably prepared for 1200-1300 per week. The vast majority of those 500 COVID-19 deaths would have been just in the last week, so now you're talking probably 1500 deaths in a system that's prepared for 1200-1300... So about a 20% overrun.

 

[schmookeeg]

What frustrates me is the lack of sacrifice people are willing to make nowadays. For multiple years Americans went to war and fought and died on battle fields during World Wars, Vietnam, Korea, Iraq ( something I proudly teach about each year) and it’s too much to ask people to stay at home and sacrifice a few weeks of pay. Give it up already— perspective people— important to remember at times like this that this is nothing compared to that.

Ayup. We're a country of selfish and decadent a-holes. Self included.

Which of those wars threatened American soil again, even abstractly? If I was invited to attend any of those lovely adventures, I'd be writing this in Canadian right now, eh.

A few weeks of pay is easy if you've got it to give. It's everything if you don't. Then imagine your bitterness when it was not a voluntary sacrifice, but forced upon you from on high. Then imagine you're watching entire states not participating at all, or pet stores being 'essential' in new york or any of the myriad other inconsistent responses out there. I'm not afraid of the virus so much as what life after this hullabaloo looks like. The so-called vulnerable generation won't have to live the few decades with further-disillusioned, robbed, and cheated millenials/genZ/genAlphas. Lucky them.

 

[bflynn]

What frustrates me is the lack of sacrifice people are willing to make nowadays. For multiple years Americans went to war and fought and died on battle fields during World Wars, Vietnam, Korea, Iraq ( something I proudly teach about each year) and it’s too much to ask people to stay at home and sacrifice a few weeks of pay. Give it up already— perspective people— important to remember at times like this that this is nothing compared to that.

Some people cannot live without a few weeks of pay. And for some people, it won't be a few weeks, there is talk already about it being a few months.

Once you get it in your head that elimination of the virus is the objective, you can't stop until the virus is eliminated and if you find it again, you have to go right back into lockdown again.

But is elimination even possible?

 

[jspilot]

It sounds like it’s a big deal for you. I’ve been through lots of ceremonies, none of which have actually impacted my life. What led up to them and what happened after them that mattered.

So, again, I don’t have much sympathy for these seniors. Sucks and all, but not a big deal in the grand scheme. My classmates whose loved ones died at the beginning of senior year, I feel sorry for.

You talk about being frustrated with how Americans aren’t willing to sacrifice - many high school grads go off to war where they will die and lose friends, brothers and sisters. That’s a big deal. Losing your high school graduation ceremony is a minor sacrifice in comparison.

Listen I’m not going to say it’s the end of the world but I think they deserve a ceremony. That’s my only point.

 

[jspilot]

Ayup. We're a country of selfish and decadent a-holes. Self included.

Which of those wars threatened American soil again, even abstractly? If I was invited to attend any of those lovely adventures, I'd be writing this in Canadian right now, eh.

A few weeks of pay is easy if you've got it to give. It's everything if you don't. Then imagine your bitterness when it was not a voluntary sacrifice, but forced upon you from on high. Then imagine you're watching entire states not participating at all, or pet stores being 'essential' in new york or any of the myriad other inconsistent responses out there. I'm not afraid of the virus so much as what life after this hullabaloo looks like. The so-called vulnerable generation won't have to live the few decades with further-disillusioned, robbed, and cheated millenials/genZ/genAlphas. Lucky them.

Well the government took action to make sure people will be paid so it’s even less a sacrifice. Imagine the horror of having to stay inside, watch TV and be compensated for it?!? Please don’t even begin to equate that the years on end not knowing if a bomb will land in your foxhole and game over.

I’m not sure I’m following your point about what things look like after this. My hunch is exactly the same as it did before minus a few bad business and a major corporations. When there is a vaccine we won’t have anything to worry about concerning the virus and maybe, just maybe, people will have a sense of the frailty of life and how “sacrifice” even on this level— feels.

 

[Ted]

Listen I’m not going to say it’s the end of the world but I think they deserve a ceremony. That’s my only point.

Sure, I’ll agree with that. But my point is that it’s a minor hiccup if they don’t, and we certainly shouldn’t have graduation ceremonies if there’s a legitimate public health concern. If we’re about the same age I’m sure you remember “The Sunscreen Song.”

The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind. The kind that blindside you at 4 PM on some idle Tuesday.

 

[azure]

Once you get it in your head that elimination of the virus is the objective, you can't stop until the virus is eliminated and if you find it again, you have to go right back into lockdown again.

But is elimination even possible?

Correct, it is likely not possible. It is also not the objective at this point (as I think you were trying to say). For now, the objective is to delay as many infections as possible so that the health system is not overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients requiring critical care. Ultimately, the objective is herd immunity - whether that is accomplished by ~90% of the population becoming infected with the virus (hopefully not), or development of an effective and widely available vaccine (a much better solution).

Then there comes the question of how readily this virus mutates into other strains, equally or more pathogenic, against which the first vaccine (or immunity following infection due to the first strain) has little effect. I don't know the answer to that one.

 

[Ted]

Correct, it is likely not possible. It is also not the objective at this point (as I think you were trying to say). For now, the objective is to delay as many infections as possible so that the health system is not overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients requiring critical care. Ultimately, the objective is herd immunity - whether that is accomplished by ~90% of the population becoming infected with the virus (hopefully not), or development of an effective and widely available vaccine (a much better solution).

Then there comes the question of how readily this virus mutates into other strains, equally or more pathogenic, against which the first vaccine (or immunity following infection due to the first strain) has little effect. I don't know the answer to that one.

It seems as though the ultimate resolution will be an annual beer flu shot. Unlike the regular flu shot, however, I would actually opt to get the beer flu shot.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Then do me and those around you a favor and at least stay inside your house. I was very skeptical for a really long time and my opinion has changed completely. Also, do those of us a favor who are actually impacted by this a favor and stop spreading your self aggrandizing “I’m better than you because I am not buying into reality” message to those that want to hear it. Your not impressing me or likely a lot of others.

I'm not here to try to impress you or anyone else. I prefer to live in reality and not be hysterical.

Also, please go tell someone else what to do. I don't take to well to strangers trying to order me around as a way to indulge their self importance.

Have a nice day.

 

[azure]

It seems as though the ultimate resolution will be an annual beer flu shot. Unlike the regular flu shot, however, I would actually opt to get the beer flu shot.

Heh. Well, I actually HAD Type A flu this year. The kind that gets a lot of people very, very sick. Our lab technician nearly died last year from complications from Type A. My case was extremely mild, for influenza. But I had the (regular) flu shot in October.

Do as you will, but I'll continue to get the regular flu shot. Flu can still be an extremely serious disease, and the vaccine has very few side effects and is inexpensive. Sounds like a win, win to me.

 

[Half Fast]

This is a good point. I’m sure my ceremonies meant much more to my mom than they ever did to me.

And, well, you know how I feel about my mom. So maybe I should’ve skipped.

I have much fonder and prouder memories of my kids’ graduation ceremonies than my own.

 

[jspilot]

I'm not here to try to impress you or anyone else. I prefer to live in reality and not be hysterical.

Also, please go tell someone else what to do. I don't take to well to strangers trying to order me around as a way to indulge their self importance.

Have a nice day.

When your actions are wreckless and your message dangerous I feel it appropriate to tell you you are wrong. In no other circumstance would I try and tell anyone what to say or think but your cavalier attitude is exactly the type of approach that needs to be called out.

 

[Doc Holliday]

When your actions are wreckless and your message dangerous I feel it appropriate to tell you you are wrong. In no other circumstance would I try and tell anyone what to say or think but your cavalier attitude is exactly the type of approach that needs to be called out.

And I feel it's important to call out someone who is fear mongering and acting out in hysteria. Hysteria is wreckless and dangerous.

Remember?

Have a great weekend.

 

[Kenny Phillips]

See my post here about the South Korea fallacy:
https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/posts/2893590/

And in the case of the article above, here is the quote you can find in 15 seconds:
"The situation in South Korea alone should dispel that narrative, where pervasive COVID-19 testing has revealed 8,897 cases against only 104 deaths, a ratio of approximately 80 to 1"

So take that one percent kill rate, and do nothing about the virus, and perhaps 80% of Americans will be infected. Only 1% will die ... of 80% of 330,000,000.

 

[deonb]

So take that one percent kill rate, and do nothing about the virus, and perhaps 80% of Americans will be infected. Only 1% will die ... of 80% of 330,000,000.

You’re literally repeating the fallacy in the reply to the post. People aren’t just part of the 1% dead or the 99% surviving. There is the whole healthcare/hospitalization system in between where 10% of cases end up in.

If you do nothing you overwhelm that system, meaning almost every case which currently end up in the ICU becomes a fatality instead.

That means you have 5% to 10% of (80% of) 330 million die, not 1%.

 

[Matthew]

There’s the potential this will have a fatality (mortality?) rate of 0.1%. At that number it’s getting into the “regular flu” neighborhood. But, it seems this bug hits harder, and requires more hospital care, among its victims that don’t die than regular flu.

 

[Juliet Hotel]

Meanwhile I’m sitting here going “What’s the big deal with them not getting a graduation?” Nearly 20 years later I don’t think of mine hardly at all. Didn’t think of it much nearly 20 minutes later either.

Same here. If I had been given the option to skip graduation I would have, but my parents wouldn't stand for it.

 

[Matthew]

My HS graduation was the day before I moved halfway across the country. Movers had packed my cap and gown and I had to start opening boxes to find it.

My HS experience was...OK.. and I wouldn’t have lost any sleep if I had missed it. But for so many of my HS friends, it was a huge deal. Some may have been the first in their family to graduate, for some it was a great accomplishment to have even survived long enough to finally have something of their own. I am always grateful I was able to share that with them.

 

[jspilot]

And I feel it's important to call out someone who is fear mongering and acting out in hysteria. Hysteria is wreckless and dangerous.

Remember?

Have a great weekend.

You are absolutely lost. FDR was talking about times during which Americans were struggling for a very long time and were worried that they may never recover. No one is thinking the country might never recover from this.

I’m not fear mongering nor are the leaders in charge. They are trying to save lives. Thank God you are no where near these discussions and thank God we have the ability to ignore fools like you.

You really have me angry and for that— you get the ignore button.

 

[Zeldman]

But for so many of my HS friends, it was a huge deal.

When I lived in West Virginia I was surprised to see a lot of folks in their 60s, 70s and 80s still wearing their high school ring. It was the most important thing to happen in their lives. Of course some of those folks did not get to graduate HS until after they came back from the war.

High school graduation was the biggest thing in my life up to that point.

 

[Bell206]

You really have me angry and for that— you get the ignore button.

So, someone says something you don't like and instead of continuing the debate on the subject, you pick up your toys and go home. How's that going to solve the problem? But don't worry, we'll keep discussing the issues and work out a solution regardless if we all like it or not.

 

[chemgeek]

Then there comes the question of how readily this virus mutates into other strains, equally or more pathogenic, against which the first vaccine (or immunity following infection due to the first strain) has little effect. I don't know the answer to that one.

The sequencing data so far suggests that the viral genome for covid-19 has been quite stable. So that's a bit of good news for vaccine efficacy when it becomes available.

 

[chemgeek]

OK, some Coronavirus reality checking:

• Nationwide, the growth of confirmed cases continues unabated, doubling every 2.5 days or so. We will reach a million confirmed cases in a couple of weeks with no foreseeable end in that growth for now. And even then we won't be done. We haven't even begun to bend the curve nationwide.
• About 15% of confirmed cases will require hospitalization. That's a lot of hospital beds. About a quarter of those will require ventilators to have a chance. Do we have enough capacity?
• About 2% of confirmed cases will die. Do the math.

How do we emerge?

Long term: herd immunity (>70% or so of population immune for this virus) through exposure or vaccination. This will take time either way.

Short term: dramatically ramp up widespread testing to find out who can go back to the workforce, and who needs to be isolated. This should be the top priority. We are lacking leadership and coordination to get this done quickly. Everyone, states, companies, feds, science organizations, are going in different directions and possibly duplicating effort.

Until one of these long- or short-term things happen, all we have is widespread isolation tactics to slow transmission to a more manageable level of growth. It's and blunt if effective instrument. (NY changed its doubling time by a factor of two in a little over a week, an enormous effect on raw caseload growth.) We are at the beginning of the outbreak in the US, not even the end of the beginning. (Well maybe NY is at the end of the beginning...we are a few weeks from peak.) This will get much worse before it gets better. If you look at caseload and mortality data (data, not news reports of data...real raw data) it is sobering. This is not a drill.

We will not get back to anything close to "normal" until either the long-term or short-term things happen. You can't fool mother nature. We need to spend less time arguing over how "real" this is and more time working on the process to more quickly emerge on the other side. We know the path. We need to fully commit to it. Scientists and health professionals know this. We need to get the public on board with accurate and realistic messaging.

 

[Juliet Hotel]

So, someone says something you don't like and instead of continuing the debate on the subject, you pick up your toys and go home. How's that going to solve the problem? But don't worry, we'll keep discussing the issues and work out a solution regardless if we all like it or not.

Do you really think this pandemic is going to solved (or even impacted at all) by what a few schmucks on a small pilot forum argue about?

 

[Bell206]

Do you really think this pandemic is going to solved (or even impacted at all) by what a few schmucks on a small pilot forum argue about?

No. But ignoring a person, or sticking your fingers in your ears and singing “la-la-la” because someone said something you didn’t want to hear doesn’t help the situation either. The more adults in a room debating all aspects of an issue pushes the discussion forward regardless at what level, to include a small pilots forum. Unfortunately, as we’ve seen in general the past 10 years or so, more people tend to run for a safe zone, grab a color book, and point fingers rather than deal with a problem 1st hand--even if it’s just to discuss it. But to each their own.

 

[Juliet Hotel]

Meh I dunno. I've made good use of the ignore button on several forums I've been on. There are those who like to do nothing other disrupting the discussion. Ignore is a great way to filter out that nonsense.

 

[bflynn]

Before we can have herd immunity, we have to get the herd immune. Right now that means most people have to catch the virus. The more we limit the virus's spread, the longer we are in lockdown.

The unanswered question I have is how long can we go with no commerce? My industry (logistics) has long project times, but even for us there is a reckoning coming. There is no way we survive if this goes on for 3 months. And if you lost your logistics, the game is done.