New Information On MH 370

Greg Bockelman said:
For what it is worth, I haven't felt the need to follow this all that closely since it is mostly wild speculation anyway. But if you were on fire, or suspected so, wouldn't you want to turn to the nearest suitable airport? If they had an electrical fire, that does not preclude them from making a turn. In fact, I would expect them to make the turn.

But I have not seen enough verifiable evidence to make any such speculations.
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The two course changes I am referring to are well after the plane turned around and headed back to Malaysia and the two types of transponders stopped transmitting. If all the plane did was head back to Malaysia in a straight line with some elevation changes, the electrical fire theory would make sense.
 
If the B777 was really in an emergency with no power to transmit they would have activated the 406 MHz ELT and detected by satellite anywhere in th world.

José
 
As if the theories aren't bad enough, after saying for several days that the FMS was reprogrammed prior to the last contact with ATC, they have reversed themselves, yet again, and now say that there is no indication that it was changed prior to ACARS going offline.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/23/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

I've stated before, they either have alot more info that they have not released to the media or they are completely incompetent. I am strongly leading toward the incompetence theory.

Oh and CNN is excited that they found a floating pallet!

Like no one has ever seen a wooden pallet on a merchant ship before! Idiots.
 
Since the "officials" seem bent on the idea that a course change had been programmed manually, what say a major fire took place, rapid decompression, pilot hits the execute on the alt plan which includes setting them up for an approach to a major emergency airport, then the Paine Webber scenario befalls them, they overshoot the airport at approach altitude and cruise out into the ocean for a splashdown.
As plausible as any and explains the rapid decent.
 
silver-eagle said:
pilot hits the execute on the alt plan which includes setting them up for an approach to a major emergency airport,
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The problem I see that there were way too many strange waypoints in this 'alt' flight plan, specially the last sudden turn left heading south after exiting the straight of Malacca. It doesn't jive with where the potential alternate airports were and what an approach could look like. Also 777 has an FMC function 'find me the nearest suitable airport' and takes you there immediately, direct. I would say this would be a more probable course of action if pilots were in a dire emergency.
 
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Fearless Tower said:
As if the theories aren't bad enough, after saying for several days that the FMS was reprogrammed prior to the last contact with ATC, they have reversed themselves, yet again, and now say that there is no indication that it was changed prior to ACARS going offline.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/23/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

I've stated before, they either have alot more info that they have not released to the media or they are completely incompetent. I am strongly leading toward the incompetence theory.
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BAH! The news media appear to be the source of the original claim. If you go to Malaysia Airlines MH370 Flight Incident web page,
http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html
you will find the record shows that the Minister of Defense stated four days ago, on March 19:

"I am aware of speculation that additional waypoints were added to the aircraft’s flight routing. I can confirm that the aircraft flew on normal routing up until the waypoint IGARI. There is no additional waypoint on MH370’s documented flight plan, which depicts normal routing all the way to Beijing."

Invented facts continue to reverberate across the media for days because most of them are rushing to publish before doing the proper journalistic act of verifying their information.
 
IMO the odds are pretty good that if/when the plane is found and the facts of the flight become known the real story will be something pretty different than the speculation here and in the media.
 
gismo said:
IMO the odds are pretty good that if/when the plane is found and the facts of the flight become known the real story will be something pretty different than the speculation here and in the media.
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My thoughts exactly.
 
gismo said:
IMO the odds are pretty good that if/when the plane is found and the facts of the flight become known the real story will be something pretty different than the speculation here and in the media.
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Maybe folks should speculate more?
 
Henning said:
The nonsense is not all we have to go on, more likely there was a structural failure that lead to this.
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Then why haven't we found scraps of wreckage along the initial flight route? It seems that this is the least likely scenario simply because in this scenario, our chances of finding the airplane by now would be the best.

Not impossible, but next to it. The 9/11 high jacking required willful stupidity on the part of the FBI and the violation of human laws, that's a lot simpler than violating the laws of physics. A quick, unnoticed intercept would require at least a 30% speed differential.
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How's that? Everyone on this thread is saying it'd be next to impossible to see another 777 in the sky even with its lights on. Using ADS-B, doing a calculated angular intercept without any extra speed really shouldn't be that hard, especially when you know the other aircraft's flight plan, speed, etc.
 
Art VanDelay said:
Really ? Where's that switch at ?
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On the panel. In light aircraft it looks like this:

11-14925.jpg


Dan
 
Dan Thomas said:
On the panel. In light aircraft it looks like this:

11-14925.jpg


Dan
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Interesting....

The FAA forces us GA owners to install a remote ELT switch within reach of the pilot and the big iron gets exempt..... Go figure...:mad2::mad2::rolleyes:
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Then why haven't we found scraps of wreckage along the initial flight route? It seems that this is the least likely scenario simply because in this scenario, our chances of finding the airplane by now would be the best.



How's that? Everyone on this thread is saying it'd be next to impossible to see another 777 in the sky even with its lights on. Using ADS-B, doing a calculated angular intercept without any extra speed really shouldn't be that hard, especially when you know the other aircraft's flight plan, speed, etc.
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You obviously have never joined on another aircraft during the day or night. I rank this possibility just below the likelihood of an alien abduction by the mother ship -- possible but unlikely. I've done many and it's much harder than you seem to think and we had radar, air to air tacan, radio contact and plenty of overtake capability. At night you have few visual cues for distance. That set of strobes and position lights out there in the dark might be two miles or twenty miles away.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Then why haven't we found scraps of wreckage along the initial flight route? It seems that this is the least likely scenario simply because in this scenario, our chances of finding the airplane by now would be the best.



How's that? Everyone on this thread is saying it'd be next to impossible to see another 777 in the sky even with its lights on. Using ADS-B, doing a calculated angular intercept without any extra speed really shouldn't be that hard, especially when you know the other aircraft's flight plan, speed, etc.
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How do you hold to set up for the intercept, then do the intercept, without being on primary radar?
 
flyingcheesehead said:
How's that? Everyone on this thread is saying it'd be next to impossible to see another 777 in the sky even with its lights on. Using ADS-B, doing a calculated angular intercept without any extra speed really shouldn't be that hard, especially when you know the other aircraft's flight plan, speed, etc.
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It isn't as much that it is next to impossible to do, as it is next to impossible to do AND have the intercept not detected by primary radar. IOW, IF they did it, we would KNOW they did it.
 
airguy said:
Offshore out of range.
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So where is this ADS-B data coming from to set up the angular intercept from?Primary radar stretches way further, and the plane to plane stuff is pretty limited in range.
 
Henning said:
How do you hold to set up for the intercept, then do the intercept, without being on primary radar?
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Again, it'd require ADS-B signal being received from the other plane. However, I think it'd be pretty easy to figure out where the plane was going to be and when. The intercept would be difficult visually at night with no assistance, but if you started by attempting to match their position 500-1000 feet above and then work your way into position above and behind them, it could be done.

It'd be much easier if you just wrote an app for that iPad that's receiving the ADS-B signal to compare your position and the other plane's. Then it turns into a video game.

I didn't say it'd be easy - But I'm far from convinced that it's impossible.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Again, it'd require ADS-B signal being received from the other plane. However, I think it'd be pretty easy to figure out where the plane was going to be and when. The intercept would be difficult visually at night with no assistance, but if you started by attempting to match their position 500-1000 feet above and then work your way into position above and behind them, it could be done.

It'd be much easier if you just wrote an app for that iPad that's receiving the ADS-B signal to compare your position and the other plane's. Then it turns into a video game.

I didn't say it'd be easy - But I'm far from convinced that it's impossible.
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Few things are impossible, however the path of greatest fear may sell the most media advertising time and space, it is hardly the likely answer. Why haven't they found anything? Regardless our technology, the world is a really big place.
 
Witmo said:
You obviously have never joined on another aircraft during the day or night. I rank this possibility just below the likelihood of an alien abduction by the mother ship -- possible but unlikely. I've done many and it's much harder than you seem to think and we had radar, air to air tacan, radio contact and plenty of overtake capability. At night you have few visual cues for distance. That set of strobes and position lights out there in the dark might be two miles or twenty miles away.
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This is exactly true. Even if they did find the other airplane, they would not be able to fly formation with it. This isn't an F-16 intercepting a Bonanza. The 777 is not that maneuverable and isn't going to have the speed to just pull up next to the other aircraft. These guys don't practice formation flight, it is not standard procedure. Formation flight is not something you just do, without practice, at night, in wide body jets, when only 1 airplane is aware of the formation. Not possible.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Again, it'd require ADS-B signal being received from the other plane. However, I think it'd be pretty easy to figure out where the plane was going to be and when.
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Riiight. Airliners move at 10 miles a minute and departure times vary by leaps and bounds, so you won't know where it is. Add that to the fact that doing a night join up without radar and on an aircraft with virtually identical performance would be a cast iron B. The odds are zero that you could make the join up and get nestled up nice and close before you'd get in range of a ground radar.

Didn't happen.
 
gismo said:
IMO the odds are pretty good that if/when the plane is found and the facts of the flight become known the real story will be something pretty different than the speculation here and in the media.
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Yep. Story changes daily.
 
3393RP said:
I have avoided reading this thread until now, but it's a boring night and thought it might be worth a look.

For some reason I thought people that actually flew airplanes would rationally discuss the possible reasons for the disappearance of MH 370 and not succumb to the nonsense that has been floated on the internet for the last two weeks.

I would classify the idea of an airliner joining up and flying in formation with another at night while traveling over eight miles a minute a perfect example of that. To do so for thousands of miles without being observed?

In an area which is among the most remote on Earth, Flight Aware tracks are being used as "evidence" that a highly coordinated action took place. Flight Aware tracks in the contiguous US of GA aircraft flying below 10,000' and at speeds less than 200 kts are not reliable representations of the actual flight path.

In spite of this, to support a ridiculous theory we are supposed to trust as absolutely reliable the information provided by Flight Aware, gathered in an area with spotty air traffic management of an unknown quality and capability.

The possibility of refueling a 777 with drums and a hand pump or the aircraft landing somewhere unannounced and taking on thousands of gallons of fuel without being noticed cannot be considered serious. It is similarly unbelievable that Al Qaeda has access to "hundreds of tanker trucks [and] tanker ships" and can place tons of jet fuel "anywhere on Earth" on demand.

A scenario of a "shadow[ing] an airline flight over the north pole to Toronto or Chicago to make an attack on us" is nothing more than ill considered fantasy. Just how would this 9,000 mile 20 hour trip be accomplished?

Somalian pirates have the aircraft on the ground and have already repainted it? These are the same guys that run around the Arabian Sea armed with Kalashnikovs in open skiffs with 90 HP outboards.
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Well sure, it sounds far fetched if you just lay it out like that... :goofy:
 
kyleb said:
Riiight. Airliners move at 10 miles a minute and departure times vary by leaps and bounds, so you won't know where it is. Add that to the fact that doing a night join up without radar and on an aircraft with virtually identical performance would be a cast iron B. The odds are zero that you could make the join up and get nestled up nice and close before you'd get in range of a ground radar.

Didn't happen.
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If you were ahead of the target plane before joining I think it would be quite a bit easier. Doesn't a 777 show nearby traffic even when there's no conflict?

I've done something like this (in the daytime) using the TCAD display in my airplane and it wasn't all that hard. A few S-turns before and a descent once the other airplane passed got me real close. If I could practice on a sim beforehand it would also help.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
We used to say the same thing about hijacking an airliner in the US. We were wrong.
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Nobody actually informed on the subject ever said that. Hijacking a plane pre-9/11 was as difficult as robbing a bank. Hint: it requires nothing more than a pen and a piece of paper.
Nobody's using a FlightAware track as evidence - FlightAware only shows the plane taking off and heading on its original course. The track that's been talked about is one that came from, I believe, some military radars.
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So if the military RADARs show the track of MH370, why don't they also show it meeting up with the track of the plane MH370 was shadowing and then show the tracks merging?
 
gismo said:
...Doesn't a 777 show nearby traffic even when there's no conflict?...
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We've already been through this. TCAS is in no stretch of the imagination suitable for an aireal intercept and furthermore does not function with the Mode S transponder turned off. The only way he could have done this is by eyeballing it which I think everyone agrees is pretty much impossible.

This whole theory is a video game born in the mind of a guy with too much time on a laptop.
 
Lindberg said:
So if the military RADARs show the track of MH370, why don't they also show it meeting up with the track of the plane MH370 was shadowing and then show the tracks merging?
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Even according to the theory's author it was pretty far behind. Maybe 20-30 miles by my eyeball. So, maybe they didn't plan to intercept it just catch up to it before reaching India? With only about a 20 kt advantage that could have been a nail-biter.

dtuuri
 
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Henning said:
So where is this ADS-B data coming from to set up the angular intercept from?Primary radar stretches way further, and the plane to plane stuff is pretty limited in range.
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Looking at the way the intercept theory would work, they'd need to have about the distance from VAMPI to GIVAL, about 55nm. Do we know what time MH370 supposedly arrived at VAMPI?

Henning said:
Few things are impossible, however the path of greatest fear may sell the most media advertising time and space, it is hardly the likely answer. Why haven't they found anything? Regardless our technology, the world is a really big place.
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True. And I misunderstood what you were asking about primary radar - Do we know that the point of intercept (theoretically, somewhere in the vicinity of GIVAL) was within coverage of a radar that someone would have actively been paying attention to?
 
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