I believe this ADS-B track was the approach to landing of the plane at Union County. The crash apparently occurred on takeoff after refueling, and no ADS-B information was recorded.
I think you are right. This track originates in Raleigh.
Looking at the flight path, it appears the fuel stop in Union might have been unplanned.
There's a clear, significant deviation from the planned flight path just prior to the landing/crash. I was trying to figure out if they had called ATC with engine trouble and gotten vectors like I heard (in which case they probably crashed prior to landing), or whether it was after takeoff.
Four adults in an M20J isn't going to allow for full fuel. 1050-1100 useful on most Js, minus 384 pounds of fuel leaves you about 690±25 pounds for payload. Not sure what they weighed, but one of the sons had been a football player so presumably not below average. But, it could be a situation where full fuel wouldn't have put them ridiculously over gross, so it's possible they decided to top off anyway and didn't have the performance they thought they would.
If it was on landing, the sudden deviation would make sense. The deviation was close to the field, so even partial or intermittent power could have lulled them into a false sense of security and had the pilot keep a higher energy state instead of slowing to best glide. It looks like they had plenty of energy until the steep turn to final, that combined with dropping gear/flaps could have caused a "we're gonna make it" into a crash.
Until we know for sure whether they were landing or taking off, there could be a wide variety of causes. We'll have to wait and see what the security videos, fuel pump log, credit cards, and final position of the wreckage tell us.
Of course, the
DTSB has already issued their final report.
Yes, I think I saw the steel cage that people refer to on these, but I did not see much for any fuselage sheet metal around that cage.
Mooneys have the same sheet metal that any other bird has. It's a "Tube-and-metal" airplane and people have survived some absolutely insane crashes in Mooneys thanks to that steel cage - For example, one that crashed into the side of a mountain in cruise and everyone survived.

They're tough little birds, the drawback is that their empty weights are fairly heavy and payload suffers.