Mandatory ADS-B in might be coming

[WDD]

You bring up a good point. As much as I use ADSB In around here, it really shines when taking off and landing, entering a pattern, etc. Which is where most accidents happen.

 

[wanttaja]

M2C - My experience is flying in the wider ATL area/SE area of the country. I’m not flying without having ADSB In.

Putting ADSB In / TCAS capabilities on passenger AND military aircraft probably not a bad idea. Make ADSB Out mandatory for all military flying close to civilian traffic.

That said, I’d like to see the data showing how many GA accidents occurred that could have been prevented if the GA pilot had ADSB In.

As much as I’m a huge fan of ADSB In for GA, is this a good idea in search of a problem?

I compiled a list of midairs (2008-2021) during one of the "NORDOs are evil!" discussions, let's see what I can dig out of there.

There were 144 aircraft involved in midairs in that time period (14 years), so we're looking at about ten aircraft per year. However, of those 144 cases, 24 occurred during formation flight, nine of the aircraft were gliders, and ten were NORDO (which may or may not reflect aircraft without electrical systems).

So, nominally, we're looking at ~110 aircraft/55 events over the 14 year period. That's about four midairs per year (eight aircraft), when the formation/gliders/NORDO ones are left out. That's the absolute best that ADSB-In could prevent, and we know it won't be that effective.

Ron Wanttaja

 

[wanttaja]

You bring up a good point. As much as I use ADSB In around here, it really shines when taking off and landing, entering a pattern, etc. Which is where most accidents happen.

Yes, but not most midairs.

In my last post, I mentioned the 2008-2021 midair study I did. 28% of the midairs occurred enroute, 32% in the pattern, and 34% in what the NTSB calls "Maneuvering" flight. This includes aircraft that were up to 15 miles from the airport (~6 cases), but otherwise were planes in aerobatic boxes, training activities, crop spraying, etc.

Ron Wanttaja

 

[WDD]

Nice data!

Question - what percentage of annual aircraft accidents do those 8 mid air aircraft per year represent?

 

[wanttaja]

Nice data!

Question - what percentage of annual aircraft accidents do those 8 aircraft per year represent?

0.6%, when you include the gliders, NORDOs, formation flight, etc. That's 0.6% of the AIRCRAFT involved; actual midair percentage is half that.

Ron Wanttaja

 

[WDD]

Wow. So in GA, mid air collisions represent less than 1% of all GA accidents?

 

[wanttaja]

Wow. So in GA, mid air collisions represent less than 1% of all GA accidents?

Yup.

It's almost exactly 1% for homebuilts, but a third of the homebuilt midairs are formation accidents.

Ron Wanttaja