Know anyone with Coronavirus?

Do you know anyone with COVID-19?

  • Positively

    Votes: 97 57.1%

  • No

    Votes: 70 41.2%

  • Do the sniffles count?

    Votes: 3 1.8%
  • Total voters
    170
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who would really know if they had it or not.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
I think that it is no secret that false positives exist in covid-19 testing just as false positives exist in pretty much every other kind of diagnostic health testing. The fact that in this case it was a person who (I assume) carries some sort of celebrity status among pro golfers means absolutely nothing in terms of how likely one is to receive a false positive result. We all know that lightening strikes and when it does, its gotta strike somewhere. Odds are still incredibly low that it will strike you.


Shifting gears a bit and possibly pushing this topic closer to needing to be locked, it occurs to me that this topic is really quite pointless. The sense I get is that this topic was created out of a belief that this pandemic was being largely overblown by the media and that it really isn't nearly as serious as people make it out to be and therefore any and all precautions are an unnecessary overreaction to a problem that doesn't actually exist.

At least that is my suspicion for the motives behind the thread. And if I'm correct about that, then this thread is pointless. Because this like it or not, this topic has become political and like any political topic, any information which agrees with our preconceived notions is regarded as further proof and any information which disagrees with our preconceived notions is regarded as insignificant outlier data or just plain lies.

If you don't believe me, reference comments earlier in the thread pointing out that the topic asked about 'those you know' and posters were reporting on 'those who know people I know...' Put another way, the number minds likely to be swayed either way by this topic is zero.
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I dunno, I could see it being as much about the fact that since overall positive cases (and deaths) are statistically such a low portion of the overall population it makes it likely that many people don't have any friends or acquaintances that have tested positive. I'm sure there are some who think the whole thing is a hoax, but I'd wager that it's more likely that people view it as an overreaction given the current knowledge. Not sure how that rings politically though.
 
deonb said:
False positives on a PCR text is extremely rare....
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There is extremely rare and then there is zero. I'm pretty sure my wife with 25+ years of professional scientific experience would remind me that the first one should never be labeled as the second.
 
Tom-D said:
who would really know if they had it or not.
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Not really sure what you're asking here. Tons of people know that they've had it and are still suffering from the damage that its done to them.
 
Neighbor and his wife to the north got it in early March, he was on a vent at the VA and she died. Both of their kids from the city got it and brought it to the farm...they are both recovered, and the he is home now too.

The young kid that bought my hay baler a few weeks ago called me and said he had it too, after the transaction had occurred....he’s recovering as well. I’m just a non mask wearing grumpy bastard that Covid would not like as host....

War didn’t kill me, life hasn’t killed me, Covid hasn’t killed me, planes haven’t killed me, my wife hasn’t killed me (yet), I’m pretty much a cockroach...
 
SoonerAviator said:
I dunno, I could see it being as much about the fact that since overall positive cases (and deaths) are statistically such a low portion of the overall population it makes it likely that many people don't have any friends or acquaintances that have tested positive.
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Given your suggested premise I would argue its much more likely those who don't have any friends or acquaintances that have tested positive probably don't have very many friends or acquaintances who reside in our more densely populated locations.

I'm sure there are some who think the whole thing is a hoax, but I'd wager that it's more likely that people view it as an overreaction given the current knowledge.
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Given what current knowledge?
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Not really sure what you're asking here. Tons of people know that they've had it and are still suffering from the damage that its done to them.
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2 reads I've read say that about of 60% of the people have the antibodies already.
 
It's probably going to be some time before all the fact gets sorted out from the fiction. Between the research being ongoing and the confusion injected by the politics of it.
 
deonb said:
False positives on a PCR text is extremely rare. It’s more likely he had it and they caught it at the trail end. (Or someone screwed up ID).

False negatives on a PCR though Is very common - up to 25%.
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Due to its enormous sensitivity false positives are very common with PCR, usually from contamination, especially when it's being used by folks who aren't familiar with it, like MD types. False negatives can happen in any assay if it isn't done properly.
 
Trying not to be too specific,

A cpl friend contracted it, I talked to him as he post flighted his lear on the day he likely picked it up. He got only mild flu like symptoms. All his coworkers and passengers were tested, but no one else got it.

He also flew a jump plane that weekend, and everyone who flew with him...in a 182 with an open door....tested positive. All healthy, no serious symptoms. Likely they actually picked it up on the ground, but they pack chutes in an open hanger, so im surprised either way. That day must've been the peak of his transmissivity, a few days after he got it, and a couple days before he started feeling it.
 
steingar said:
Due to its enormous sensitivity false positives are very common with PCR, usually from contamination, especially when it's being used by folks who aren't familiar with it, like MD types. False negatives can happen in any assay if it isn't done properly.
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Multiple geneticist, scientists and others have stated PCR even when done correctly can have a false positive or false negative. The false negative is most likely due to sensitivity level. With false positives often caused by selecting one or more protein(s) that can match more than one condition. The example I have seen the most is for the South Korea test which initially only matched on two points and had a higher positive rate. As South Korea ramped up testing, they switched to a more precise test (I never did understand what they changed).

Is that correct?

Tim
 
Jim K said:
Likely they actually picked it up on the ground, but they pack chutes in an open hanger, so im surprised either way.
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Why would you be surprised? Have you been in a 182 on a jump run? The jumpers practically sit on top of one another back there And even if the door is open the entire flight (the door remained closed until approaching the DZ in the 182's I flew), there ain't gonna be a whole lotta air moving in the back when you're on the ground. I don't find it surprising everyone involved tested positive. The real question is did they get it from him or did he get it from one of them?
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Given your suggested premise I would argue its much more likely those who don't have any friends or acquaintances that have tested positive probably don't have very many friends or acquaintances who reside in our more densely populated locations.

Given what current knowledge?
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Well, I have as many friends in DFW as I do in Tulsa, and I don't know anyone with it. Or if they had it, they were social media didn't about it. So, while it's a sample size of one, I seem to fit that mold.

Current knowledge being rates of serious symptoms requiring hospitalization and morbidity. Hindsight 20/20, if they knew in advance that people had a 99.7% survivability rate, I doubt they would have shut things down the way they have. The knowledge they have gained in 4 months about how the virus works, methods of containment and treatment, etc.allow people to make more informed decisions. None of that makes this a hoax, but it certainly lessens the severity of potential millions of dead bodies piling up as was first postulated in March.
 
tspear said:
Multiple geneticist, scientists and others have stated PCR even when done correctly can have a false positive or false negative. The false negative is most likely due to sensitivity level. With false positives often caused by selecting one or more protein(s) that can match more than one condition. The example I have seen the most is for the South Korea test which initially only matched on two points and had a higher positive rate. As South Korea ramped up testing, they switched to a more precise test (I never did understand what they changed).

Is that correct?

Tim
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That's all assuming the assay is carried out by scientists familiar with aseptic conditions. When carried out by folks unfamiliar with PCR (which I think is happening a lot right now) all sorts of fun things can happen.
 
Tom-D said:
who would really know if they had it or not.
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They test like they're giving candy around here ...

Am in the medical field and this week two more that I have contact with are positive ... total of 14 that I have worked directly with :(
 
One of my friend's brother was a doctor in Mexico, treating COVID-19 cases. He and his nurse contracted it about 6 weeks ago. She died very quickly. His brother was hospitalized in the hospital where he worked for about a month, then they sent him home with oxygen. Two weeks later he was re-admitted and put on a ventilator. He died yesterday as my friend and his sisters were on the way to see him.

My boss' sister-in-law lost her Father yesterday as well. He was very loud about the fact that he was going to go to bars and wasn't going to wear a mask ever. He contracted it and gave it to his two daughters. Luckily the daughters are okay.

I was reluctant to accept the facts about his disease, but it's getting a lot closer to home for me.
 
danhagan said:
They test like they're giving candy around here ...

Am in the medical field and this week two more that I have contact with are positive ... total of 14 that I have worked directly with :(
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Lowflynjack said:
One of my friend's brother was a doctor in Mexico, treating COVID-19 cases. He and his nurse contracted it about 6 weeks ago. She died very quickly. His brother was hospitalized in the hospital where he worked for about a month, then they sent him home with oxygen. Two weeks later he was re-admitted and put on a ventilator. He died yesterday as my friend and his sisters were on the way to see him.

My boss' sister-in-law lost her Father yesterday as well. He was very loud about the fact that he was going to go to bars and wasn't going to wear a mask ever. He contracted it and gave it to his two daughters. Luckily the daughters are okay.

I was reluctant to accept the facts about his disease, but it's getting a lot closer to home for me.
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:(
 
An aviation journalist I worked with several years ago died of COVID in May, and the brother of a high school classmate was the first fatality recorded in Nebraska.

Another journalist friend was diagnosed and passed it onto his family, but everyone remained asymptomatic. An ex-girlfriend who I'm still friends with was diagnosed in late March and became quite sick, and while she was never hospitalized she still experiences mild to severe complications from it. (That she also has MS isn't helping matters.)

Like Jack, I was also skeptical of its severity at first, and I was highly critical of shutting down our economy over this earlier this year. Now, though... and, as I also care for my elderly parents, I'm fairly paranoid about the possibility of passing it onto them.
 
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flightwriter said:
...
Like Jack, I was also skeptical of its severity at first, and I was highly critical of shutting down our economy over this earlier this year. Now, though... and, as I also care for my elderly parents, I'm fairly paranoid about the possibility of passing it onto them.
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Do you have the same fear of influenza?
 
Palmpilot said:
What is the source for that statistic?
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CDCs current "Best Estimate" Infection fatality rate(IFR): .0065(.65%) so CDC best estimate 99.35% infection survival rate.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Current case fatality rate in AZ is 1.9%. Apply the CDC recently reaffirmed estimate of "Actual cases = 10X identified cases" gives an estimated IFR of .19% so roughly 99.8% infection survival rate

https://www.azfamily.com/news/continuing_coverage/coronavirus_coverage/interactives/

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronav...0200721-bixwzr4imfduzjqqoakkapitpa-story.html
 
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flightwriter said:
The same fear? I'm aware of the statistics, but as I don't know anyone personally who's died from the flu, no.
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I bet you know some, you just didn't know it was the flu.
 
Well, now I know someone, a couple that I've known for more than a decade. Actually, likely two whole families, who thought it would be wonderful to celebrate the "opening" with a vacation to Florida; four adults, three children. A sibling and his family was invited along, but thought it was a bad idea due to his co-morbidity issues. He's gloating right now, and I don't blame him. I'm not privy to exactly how many of the seven have it, but I'd bet a weeks' pay that it's all of them. But two for sure.
 
bdtaz said:
CDCs current "Best Estimate" Infection fatality rate(IFR): .0065(.65%) so CDC best estimate 99.35% infection survival rate.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Current case fatality rate in AZ is 1.9%. Apply the CDC recently reaffirmed estimate of "Actual cases = 10X identified cases" gives an estimated IFR of .19% so roughly 99.8% infection survival rate

https://www.azfamily.com/news/continuing_coverage/coronavirus_coverage/interactives/

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronav...0200721-bixwzr4imfduzjqqoakkapitpa-story.html
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Thanks.
 
bdtaz said:
CDCs current "Best Estimate" Infection fatality rate(IFR): .0065(.65%) so CDC best estimate 99.35% infection survival rate.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Current case fatality rate in AZ is 1.9%. Apply the CDC recently reaffirmed estimate of "Actual cases = 10X identified cases" gives an estimated IFR of .19% so roughly 99.8% infection survival rate

https://www.azfamily.com/news/continuing_coverage/coronavirus_coverage/interactives/

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronav...0200721-bixwzr4imfduzjqqoakkapitpa-story.html
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Got to it before I could post it. Even so, that percentage is based on an incomplete data set since we know the testing had its limitations, so it's a little tough to say the percentage is lower or higher. Doesn't mean it shouldn't be taken seriously. I just feel that if the powers that be knew that was the result, they may have negated to take such extreme measures. However, not taking the extreme measures may have made the end result worse.
 
The good news is, survivability numbers are WAY better than predicted.

The bad news is, whatever the mechanism is that causes it to go rampantly nasty in SOME folks is rapidly deadly.

The other bad news is the data isn’t normalized and many States are now using even less accurate testing with much higher false positive rates. Even a small false positive rate MULTIPLIES into a very large possibility range as tests are added... so the “cases” number is already a giant swing from lowest possible to highest in any total — and slowly becoming meaningless mathematically.

But great to use either end of those predictions politically. ASSUMING they’re not still using three month old already disproven predictions...

It’s. A mess.

The great news... wife’s hospital network is still multiple orders of magnitude down from the initial “it infected the high risk and killed them quick” numbers back before distancing and learning not to murder nursing home patients.

They still never went above 350 at her hospital and have been holding at around 100, even after being switched to the primary transport facility for our metro from anywhere that couldn’t keep Covid patients.

And we’re still “ahead” of most places by a month in the timeline. So that’s “decent”.

The other bad news: If the math holds and no vaccine occurs (incredibly low probability but there’s minor hope) we’re an incredibly long timeframe away from herd immunity via infections. Even assuming a ton of not yet tested cases. Way into 2021.

My vacation trip we probably couldn’t take anyway, just got pushed from late Jan 2021 to November. I’m sure with an actuary from their insurance involved. We strangely have the insurance because I already knew I had medical issues. Can claim now up to mid-October 2021 for full refund.

Buckle up and adapt, kids. That’s the current math.

And for those concerned about how inaccurate it’s all getting... we still don’t really have accurate data on 1918. Instant communication today isn’t really helping any. Same human errors, same data problems. Nothing new. They had censorship of the press due to WWI back then, but the current press isn’t exactly doing the tough math or legwork to ask real hard questions. So about the same.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Why would you be surprised? Have you been in a 182 on a jump run? The jumpers practically sit on top of one another back there And even if the door is open the entire flight (the door remained closed until approaching the DZ in the 182's I flew), there ain't gonna be a whole lotta air moving in the back when you're on the ground. I don't find it surprising everyone involved tested positive. The real question is did they get it from him or did he get it from one of them?
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Actually, no, I'm not a parachutist, although I have seen the plane in question, and would describe it as "sketchy". Also, "well ventilated". I thought they flew it door open all the time, but I could be wrong. Only 1 seat and a big pad on the floor. No other interior; looked like plenty of room for 3 passengers. I was going by how windy the Cherokee gets when the prop is turning with the door open, and assuming they loaded it 'hot'.

Of course it's impossible to know when & where you get it, but he was the first to come down with symptoms, the rest took about a week.
 
Oh and we are up to seven or eight. Latest is an acquaintance in another State. An “essential” who predicted he would get it, and did, in cargo-ish type job role.

He’s two weeks in and surviving ok. Ex-Marine, in shape, early 40s, quarantined at home. No O2.
 
bdtaz said:
CDCs current "Best Estimate" Infection fatality rate(IFR): .0065(.65%) so CDC best estimate 99.35% infection survival rate.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Current case fatality rate in AZ is 1.9%. Apply the CDC recently reaffirmed estimate of "Actual cases = 10X identified cases" gives an estimated IFR of .19% so roughly 99.8% infection survival rate

https://www.azfamily.com/news/continuing_coverage/coronavirus_coverage/interactives/

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronav...0200721-bixwzr4imfduzjqqoakkapitpa-story.html
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Thanks. I appreciate the link. Honesty, this is the first time I ever bothered to look at the CDC webpage on the topic. Very interesting
 
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Jim K said:
Actually, no, I'm not a parachutist, although I have seen the plane in question, and would describe it as "sketchy". Also, "well ventilated". I thought they flew it door open all the time, but I could be wrong. Only 1 seat and a big pad on the floor. No other interior; looked like plenty of room for 3 passengers. I was going by how windy the Cherokee gets when the prop is turning with the door open, and assuming they loaded it 'hot'.
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Most jump 182's are configured and permitted to carry 5 jumpers, not 3. So it gets tight back there. I've never seen any jump operation that climbed with the door open, even on bigger the turbine planes. Time in money in that game. Anything that slows down time to climb (like an open door) is very bad for business.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Most jump 182's are configured and permitted to carry 5 jumpers, not 3. So it gets tight back there. I've never seen any jump operation that climbed with the door open, even on bigger the turbine planes. Time in money in that game. Anything that slows down time to climb (like an open door) is very bad for business.
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Not to mention in the 182 I fly, the jump door is only allowed to be open at less than 80 mph per the STC.
 
This is more of a club than a business. Well, actually more of a "bob has a grass strip and a 182, let's go skydiving". I've never seen more than three jumpers in the videos he's shown me, but I'm sure it's a standard stc and you guys are right. I'll have to ask next time I see him.
 
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