If GA is getting less popular and there are less new pilots why is the price of old planes not falling?

I wonder what the effect of all the weather and flight planning tools we have now is. I know I've made a lot of flights with internet/ADS-B weather data that I probably wouldn't have tried if I had to rely on old school telephone briefings.
 
Jim_R said:
Your premise is flawed: There are more pilots today than at any time in the last 30+ years. Plot below only goes through 2020, but FAA stats show there were 757,000 pilots by the end of 2022. That's almost 30% growth in the number of pilots since 2016.

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www.statista.com

Number of active pilots in the U.S. 2020 | Statista

It is widely known that there is a pilot shortage in the United States – a view seemingly supported by the figures: by 2016 there were only around 584,000 pilots in the U.S.
www.statista.com www.statista.com
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Because student certificates don't expire, it appears that the number of pilots is growing rapidly, but that's not the case because many of those students drop out and are no longer active. If you look at line 16, Pilot total without Student Category, you'll see that 2022's count is about 2500 below 2013's. Also please note that there were 17,000 more Airline Transport rated pilots in 2022 than 2013, so the number of GA pilots is down four or five percent from 2013, but is up a little from 2016, which was the lowest point.
 
FormerHangie said:
Because student certificates don't expire, it appears that the number of pilots is growing rapidly, but that's not the case because many of those students drop out and are no longer active. If you look at line 16, Pilot total without Student Category, you'll see that 2022's count is about 2500 below 2013's. Also please note that there were 17,000 more Airline Transport rated pilots in 2022 than 2013, so the number of GA pilots is down four or five percent from 2013, but is up a little from 2016, which was the lowest point.
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Today I learned that ATPs can't fly GA.
 
The dramatic increase in used airplane prices the last 18 months can be attributed to very low interest rates, a booming economy and bonus depreciation tax incentives. Airplanes right now are seeing a price correction.
 
I don't buy the interest rate argument as they were at their lowest pre-pandemic. I honestly have no idea why prices have risen and the planes sold for that. The only thing I can figure is a lot of businesses got huge cash handouts and continue to do so. I can't imagine though that all the buyers were business owners but maybe so. Flight school business is booming so I can see why 150/152 172 prices are up and maybe that's where a lot of people cashed in. I do wish they would keep raising the interest rates to snuff out people willing to pay a premium just because it only adds $50.00 per month to my payment.
 
texasclouds said:
They can at age 65, but they have to retest all certificates since the ATP expires at 65.
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I don't think it expires, just can't be used in US part 121 operations. When age 60 was the rule some pilots went to other countries to use their qualifications. And before the age 60 rule came into effect, there was no upper age limit.
 
Mikey52 said:
I don't think it expires, just can't be used in US part 121 operations. When age 60 was the rule some pilots went to other countries to use their qualifications. And before the age 60 rule came into effect, there was no upper age limit.
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Cheap clapped out airplanes get bought and shipped out of the country.
 
Flying is BOOMING in my area. Price of gas $7.80 a gallon isn't slowing it down. Thank goodness someone put a pump in at Las Cruces selling gas at cost at $5.50 recently.

Both my field (KDNA Dona Ana) and Las Cruces (KLRU) have increased student flying to levels that are higher than when I started flying in 2006 (and that was $2.50 gas and a $50 C-152 rental wet). I *think* we're getting a bunch of students that are coming here rather than Arizona ... no Chinese yet, but lots of heavy dialect on frequency. Am guessing they count as FAA pilots since they're testing here prior to returning to their home country.
 
Something else that is probably somewhat of a factor is that a lot of these old people who own these old airplanes, although they have been convinced that it's time to let them go, just don't want to. So they ask an exorbitant price which no one will pay. But the fact that the price is being asked has some effect on the market.
 
danhagan said:
Flying is BOOMING in my area. Price of gas $7.80 a gallon isn't slowing it down. Thank goodness someone put a pump in at Las Cruces selling gas at cost at $5.50 recently.

Both my field (KDNA Dona Ana) and Las Cruces (KLRU) have increased student flying to levels that are higher than when I started flying in 2006 (and that was $2.50 gas and a $50 C-152 rental wet). I *think* we're getting a bunch of students that are coming here rather than Arizona ... no Chinese yet, but lots of heavy dialect on frequency. Am guessing they count as FAA pilots since they're testing here prior to returning to their home country.
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Same here. Local airport has been greatly upgraded. Adding another row of T-hangars as we speak.

School went from 3 172s to 5 and looking for more.
 
Dang, did they get super tiny women as models just to make the Cessna look huge?

C.
 
bnt83 said:
All of them. My brothers 172 went to the Philippines.
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Yep. A 210 I was trying to buy went to Brazil on Friday. They don't even inspect them. Just wire the cash and send someone up to fly it away.
 
midcap said:
Which countries?
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My Warrior II went to Thailand. Flight school/club in the suburbs of Bangkok. Netjets captain bought it cheap from me and "flipped" (new engine, paint and avionics) it for probably stupid money. This was in 2013 though.
 
Half Fast said:
If so, GA will shrink to almost nothing. The people who want to build planes is a tiny subset of the already small set of people who want to fly them.
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Some people like building, some people like flying. There's a lot of RV's out there that have changed owners pretty quick after the flyoff. In 30 seconds on tap I saw 2 rv14's with 60 and 65 hours for sale. Id be willing to bet more rv10 kits are completed every year than pa28's are sold. Cirrus is really the only single sold with any numbers that aren't trainers, but I've seen a lot of sr20 trainers. Mooney is dead. Bonanza is on life support. Piper pretty strictly just a trainer and have killed the Arrow and Seneca after killing the pa32 and 236. Despite both going for a premium on the used market. Cessna sold 199 172's and 182t's combined.

We've been passing around the same planes for 65 years. Cirrus and Diamond were the last ones to really innovate and the sr22 was certified nearly a quarter century ago. The pipistrel panthera appears to be DOA after Textron bought it.The 1389 certified planes sold in the world probably can't keep up with attrition of existing fleet. Either from accidents, weather events, or neglect

I think between Vans, Sling, Cub Crafters, Velocity, Kitfox, Rans, Just, etc. Kit sales vs certified sales are probably pretty close. Van's alone averages nearly 450 kits completed yearly among all their models. There were 1389 total certified single engine piston planes sold total in 2022. Kitfox has sold 7,000 kits since 1984. And I'd venture that curve has been increasing.
 
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camorton said:
A 210 I was trying to buy went to Brazil on Friday. They don't even inspect them. Just wire the cash and send someone up to fly it away.
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A 206 I wanted to buy a number of years ago went to Colombia. The seller got asking price wired to his bank account. I could not match that.
 
Racerx said:
Cirrus and Diamond were the last ones to really innovate and the sr22 was certified nearly a quarter century ago.
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True, but those models were also heavy subsidized to include the Columbia on the US side. Without that public money there wouldn't have been no innovation except on the EU side who still subsidized on a regular basis.

You'll also find a number of aircraft heading south of the border end up in the drug trade with most stolen but in some cases the aircraft are bought outright, site unseen to keep up the illusion of a legit ops. Saw that 25 years ago and it still happens today.
 
Bell206 said:
True, but those models were also heavy subsidized to include the Columbia on the US side. Without that public money there wouldn't have been no innovation except on the EU side who still subsidized on a regular basis.

You'll also find a number of aircraft heading south of the border end up in the drug trade with most stolen but in some cases the aircraft are bought outright, site unseen to keep up the illusion of a legit ops. Saw that 25 years ago and it still happens today.
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What isn't subsidized these days?
 
Racerx said:
What isn't subsidized these days?
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New aircraft innovations in the US. The millions spent in the mid-90s were the last spent on this that gave you the Cirrus and several others. But with no widespread interest from the private GA market everyone took their new toys and went home. Even with MOSAIC there are no hand-outs like there was back then. It is what it is.
 
As fleet gets smaller, prices will rise. But rising prices means less people can afford them. Catch 22.

New planes are stupid prices.
 
I'm curious how much of a factor the significant increase in airline pilot pay has attributed to the price increases? It's safe to assume that a large portion of airplane owners probably do it professionally as well. Before covid the average 1st year pay at a regional was still in the 60k range. That number has grown exponentially to the point where 1st year new hires can earn over 100k. I know a second year guy making 130k and a 6 year regional guy making over 300k. Most of these people probably have minimal family obligations and potentially don't even own a home yet. Would be an interesting survey to see the results of.
 
TCABM said:
Is it? None of our partners fly professionally.
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I just pulling from my observations but probably 75% of the owners I know are or were professional pilots. Following the post on the groups associated with airplanes I'm interested in it seems a lot of people chiming in with new purchases are airline guys. Of course YMMV.
 
Grum.Man said:
I just pulling from my observations but probably 75% of the owners I know are or were professional pilots.
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Interesting. But I think location and possibly demographics have more an influence on that percentage than a simple value. For example, of all the customers I had in a 5 state region only about 10% were professional pilots. Even at the day job few pilots participated in recreational flying and if they did fly it was to make extra money or gain experience to move into the next level. Most of my clients were self-made from different backgrounds and experience levels not related to aviation at all.
 
Bell206 said:
You'll also find a number of aircraft heading south of the border end up in the drug trade with most stolen but in some cases the aircraft are bought outright, site unseen to keep up the illusion of a legit ops. Saw that 25 years ago and it still happens today.
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A few years ago when I was shopping for an Arrow, I found a prospect in Miami. A bit of research on the seller indicated he was a felon. Dug up the case and he had been convicted for serving as a straw buyer of aircraft for cartels.
 
Grum.Man said:
I just pulling from my observations but probably 75% of the owners I know are or were professional pilots. Following the post on the groups associated with airplanes I'm interested in it seems a lot of people chiming in with new purchases are airline guys. Of course YMMV.
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My observed (anecdotal, should go without saying) experience as a pro pilot indicates the opposite of your assertion. Furthermore, the attitude towards recreational piston from that cohort doesn't exactly bode well for the hobby. To wit, even if it were true, you wouldn't want that cohort being the statistical majority of the patronage. Might as well align with the real estate NIMBYs, the latter look like damn near friends of the hobby by comparison.
 
If this was $200k Id be all over that.

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