Here is potentially why GA is doomed

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Mtns2Skies said:
I've said it before and I'll say it again. I got multiple very rude comments from "youthfully challenged" people about my age while at oshkosh.
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What sort of comments? How old are you?

I am 59 and enjoy the company of both our younger and older folks. We had a good mix at the southeast get together at GMU.
 
I'm a real dinosaur. I currently have three motorcycles parked in the garage, and I'm always looking for more.
And airplanes.
Even though I said I would never own another plane, I may have to buy to keep on flying.
I always had a list of people who would ask me to fly their planes because they were too busy, or going away, et, etc. Now the guys I used to fly with and for, are aging out and selling their planes. Soon I won't have anyone off whom I can mooch.
Hey! Being a successful freeloader takes a lot of hard work.
I am not going to talk about guns.
 
Dav8or said:
Why? Because they might be forced to play by the rules?
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There's a pretty big court case where a lot of really bad stuff is coming to light about them. I honestly don't think they're going to make it. Apparently they decided that because they were an internet business they could flaunt the law. I suspect the courts will see otherwise.
 
Dav8or said:
Many here will hate this because they are so in love with the internal combustion engine, but what will revitalize GA as well as motorcycles is when they go electric. The folks here that have electric cars now understand why. Electric propulsion is just so much better and it is actually new. Historically new and better airplanes have often come when new power plants come online and I predict this will be the case again in the future. If you want to engage millennials, offer them something that is actually new, not Cessna 172s and Harley Davidsons that are their grandpa's and even great grandpa's toys.

I know the time is not now and we must wait some more, because batteries are just not good enough for airplanes and not cheap enough for motorcycles, but it is coming. It will happen though and when it does, there will be a renaissance in all vehicles. I personally can't wait!

As an aside to the off topic part of this thread, I have been flying for 20 years and I own my own plane, but I've been playing video games even longer. I'm in my middle 50s and I regularly play COD multiplayer online. I am one of those that does watch other people play COD on YouTube.

The key is, you must have a personal connection to the game. You have to have played it competitively and understand it's nuances and complexities, then you can enjoy watching someone else play the game that is better than you, or enjoy watching a great match between professionals. That's right, there are professional video game players.

I can't understand why people would want to sit around watching people play soccer, or golf, or hockey, or tennis, or even basketball. Those are some televised games that bore me to death.
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I can't wait for electric airplanes, in terms of cost and reliability. The big issue for planes is still weight. Once the technology for electric power improves enough to make it practical for GA, it will have completely taken over road transportation.
 
Dav8or said:
Many here will hate this because they are so in love with the internal combustion engine, but what will revitalize GA as well as motorcycles is when they go electric.
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Nah. Harley’s own Project Livewire went absolutely nowhere, commercially. Everyone that rode it said it was incredible but it didn’t attract millennials or anyone else with their wallets open begging to buy it.
 
Dav8or said:
I know the time is not now and we must wait some more, because batteries are just not good enough for airplanes and not cheap enough for motorcycles, but it is coming. It will happen though and when it does, there will be a renaissance in all vehicles. I personally can't wait!
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There have been several electric motorcycle companies that have come and gone within the last 10 years or so. They're great for tooling around town or for a quick lap around the track, but for any type of touring or LD riding, they'll never overcome the internal combustion engine. Same goes for airplanes. The lithium battery technology has almost reached it's peak. Unless you go betavoltaic (basically nuclear fission), I don't think we're going to see a huge mainstream renascence in battery powered vehicles.
 
azblackbird said:
The lithium battery technology has almost reached it's peak.
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We don't know that. The theoretical maximum Lithium capacity of known alloys (Silicon Lithium) is about 6 times what we have today. It doesn't imply that we definitely reach it, but there is nothing that implies we're at a peak either.

Having said that, I love EV's - have two, won't ever go back, blah, blah, but I don't think battery tech is ready for aviation, and it may or may not ever be.
 
deonb said:
We don't know that. The theoretical maximum Lithium capacity of known alloys (Silicon Lithium) is about 6 times what we have today. It doesn't imply that we definitely reach it, but there is nothing that implies we're at a peak either.
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There's lots of research that says otherwise. We're almost at peak energy/density capacity with the current lithium based technologies. Time for some different chemicals. ;)
 
steingar said:
There's a pretty big court case where a lot of really bad stuff is coming to light about them. I honestly don't think they're going to make it. Apparently they decided that because they were an internet business they could flaunt the law. I suspect the courts will see otherwise.
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That's true. There's still Lyft though. That's who I use on the super rare occasion I need a ride.
 
Brad Z said:
I can't wait for electric airplanes, in terms of cost and reliability. The big issue for planes is still weight. Once the technology for electric power improves enough to make it practical for GA, it will have completely taken over road transportation.
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Not just cost and reliability, though those things are huge, but also quiet, incredibly smooth and full power all the way into space. No more complicated turbos, or superchargers.

Just like power tools and portable electronics help to commercialize batteries to the point they could be used for cars, cars will boost batteries to the point they can be used for airplanes. It will take some time though. I'm not going to be one of those that professes "In five years time..."
 
denverpilot said:
Nah. Harley’s own Project Livewire went absolutely nowhere, commercially. Everyone that rode it said it was incredible but it didn’t attract millennials or anyone else with their wallets open begging to buy it.
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Right and if you look back at my post, you'll see that I believe the major obstacle to electric motorcycle adoption is cost. If the electric motorcycle were the same cost, or lower than the gas powered one, I think we would see lots of them on the street. This day is coming as battery prices are falling.
 
Dav8or said:
Right and if you look back at my post, you'll see that I believe the major obstacle to electric motorcycle adoption is cost. If the electric motorcycle were the same cost, or lower than the gas powered one, I think we would see lots of them on the street. This day is coming as battery prices are falling.
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Battery prices are falling and will be hella expensive to recycle soon. Already not pretty but the costs of getting rid of them isn’t baked into all products.

I can’t believe the amount of electronic waste Best Buy has let me drop on them for free. LOL. I buy absolutely nothing there. Haha.
 
azblackbird said:
There have been several electric motorcycle companies that have come and gone within the last 10 years or so. They're great for tooling around town or for a quick lap around the track, but for any type of touring or LD riding, they'll never overcome the internal combustion engine. Same goes for airplanes. The lithium battery technology has almost reached it's peak. Unless you go betavoltaic (basically nuclear fission), I don't think we're going to see a huge mainstream renascence in battery powered vehicles.
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Oops, there you go. You said the word never. You might regret that. They once said that about electric cars, but they are becoming more and more of a threat to ICE powered cars each year. I now do 95% of all my driving electric now. Once people made stupid jokes about "Really long extension cords", but nobody makes that joke anymore. Electric cars are getting more serious by the year and motorcycles will too in time.

Even given current technology, if the current electric motorcycle were cheaper, many would buy them for "tooling around town", or "couple of laps" and that's because they are a motorcycle that offers a better riding experience than traditional motorcycles. If the new electric bikes were the same prices as, or even cheaper than the traditional, I think you would see sales climb steeply. This day is coming as battery prices are falling and eventually an electric vehicle will be cheaper to manufacture than an ICE vehicle.
 
GlennAB1 said:
Dont be so offended, your choice of words, purposely avoiding "watched" was just so obvious. What fun would it be to not argue?
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It was meant to be funny. Why would I argue with somebody who had valid points?

Sometimes tone doesn't come through in text, I get it. I should have added a :)
 
deonb said:
We don't know that. The theoretical maximum Lithium capacity of known alloys (Silicon Lithium) is about 6 times what we have today. It doesn't imply that we definitely reach it, but there is nothing that implies we're at a peak either.

Having said that, I love EV's - have two, won't ever go back, blah, blah, but I don't think battery tech is ready for aviation, and it may or may not ever be.
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True, nobody has a crystal ball, but where there is a will there is a way. I firmly believe that. I would say that it is unlikely that electric airplanes of tomorrow will be powered by any kind of Li-Ion battery. Likely a different chemistry, or composition, or ???, but I firmly believe it will happen I just hope I have enough life left in me by that time to enjoy it.
 
StevieTimes said:
It was meant to be funny. Why would I argue with somebody who had valid points?

Sometimes tone doesn't come through in text, I get it. I should have added a :)
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I thought you were pretty clear. :D

Nauga,
under his head
 
Dav8or said:
Oops, there you go. You said the word never. You might regret that. They once said that about electric cars, but they are becoming more and more of a threat to ICE powered cars each year.
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They’re not a real threat at all without the tax breaks.
 
Dav8or said:
Oops, there you go. You said the word never. You might regret that. They once said that about electric cars, but they are becoming more and more of a threat to ICE powered cars each year. I now do 95% of all my driving electric now. Once people made stupid jokes about "Really long extension cords", but nobody makes that joke anymore. Electric cars are getting more serious by the year and motorcycles will too in time.
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Nothing wrong with electric cars or bikes. I think they're pretty awesome after having driven a Tesla and a ZERO motorcycle. Problem is the infrastructure for re-charges. Same goes for the NG powered vehicles. Many advocates fail to realize the implications involved in building those (Musk is getting a sour taste of that as we speak) re-charge stations to keep up with the anticipated demand. In addition, most of your middle class "peasants" aren't going to rewire their homes just to handle the power needed to re-charge an EV. Same goes for the LD travelers who have to plan their routes around whether there's a re-charge station along their desired path. I smoke cigars with a Tesla rep and constantly hear of the problems and complaints they encounter. Will it all work itself out in the end? Who knows, but given what I've seen and heard, it's going to be a very long process. :eek:
 
Just consider the odds... I may be entering geezer status and a percentage of you youngin's might not make it here. Laugh youngin's, it was meant to be funny!
 
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azblackbird said:
Many advocates fail to realize the implications involved in building those (Musk is getting a sour taste of that as we speak) re-charge stations to keep up with the anticipated demand.
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Tesla Superchargers have always been meant for road trips. It has been when I bought the car, then it got really enforced, then the message was lost for a while, now they're getting back to that. They were never meant for you to run your business from. If you want to run a Taxi business, install your own charger. I don't think that's unfair or an obstacle for general adoption.

azblackbird said:
In addition, most of your middle class "peasants" aren't going to rewire their homes just to handle the power needed to re-charge an EV.
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I charge my Tesla on 120V most of the time. I have 240V available, but I can't be bothered. I now use my 240V for my RV instead. Most people don't actually need 240V at home - people panic initially when they do their needs calculations and remember the one time 17 years ago that they drove 400 miles around town in a single day running errands, and then want to plan their whole life around that. After a while you chill out.

Kids who grow up with EV's will realize you don't need super fast charging at home. But it's not even a big deal if you really want to do that - my 240V install was $350. It's less than the price of a tire.
 
deonb said:
Tesla Superchargers have always been meant for road trips. It has been when I bought the car, then it got really enforced, then the message was lost for a while, now they're getting back to that.
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Biggest complaint I hear from Jason (Tesla Rep) is the "bogarting" of the superchargers. Many people driving Teslas on road trips pull in to a supercharger station (if not already full) plug in their car, and then take-off somewhere never to be seen for several hours. This really ****es off the travelers with a schedule to meet, as they have to wait around hours for the "bogarters" to return and unplug before they can plug in themselves. Some have even tried to seek reimbursement from Tesla for "trip interruption" charges.

deonb said:
I charge my Tesla on 120V most of the time.
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Sounds like you're not a real heavy user if you can get by with 120v. Another complaint I have often heard from Jason is that many who live in a condo or an older home will buy a Tesla, then realize they need an entire rewire (or new lines ran) because their current breaker boxes can't handle the additional loads required to run a charger. Others I've heard just sacrifice several circuits when they hook their charger up and make sure their water heater, heat pump, dryer, oven, or pool pump isn't in use at the time.
 
I'm kind of interested in converting a classic of some sort to electric. Mainly just for another project but I'd make sure it could get me to the airport, around town for groceries and stuff, then home with reserve.
 
DesertNomad said:
Not only that. The nephew of my best friend is a millenial and told us that people go to stadiums to watch people play video games on the big screens. Um. wow.
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He's got a point. Watching other people play sports is just as sedentary as watching other people play video games.
 
cowman said:
I'm kind of interested in converting a classic of some sort to electric. Mainly just for another project but I'd make sure it could get me to the airport, around town for groceries and stuff, then home with reserve.
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One of my old bosses does that. He converts the Porsche boxster and spyder kits to EVs. He's also done several Mustangs and a couple S-10 Chevys. He's also a Classic Car collector and dealer.
 
Palmpilot said:
He's got a point. Watching other people play sports is just as sedentary as watching other people play video games.
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True; However, with traditional sports you're usually admiring the athletic prowess and/or physical danger the competitors are putting themselves in. The big time gamers have some sort of prowess, but it's not one I can relate to much. To each his own.
 
azblackbird said:
One of my old bosses does that. He converts the Porsche boxster and spyder kits to EVs. He's also done several Mustangs and a couple S-10 Chevys. He's also a Classic Car collector and dealer.
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Right now it's only in the idea phase but I just got done doing an International Scout II... gas powered of course. Getting into that I learned the 60's model Scout 80s had manual steering/brakes. Got me thinking of an electric Scout 80 or maybe something else with manual steering/brakes... partly because it's old/cool and partly one less design hurdle to worry about.
 
cowman said:
I'm kind of interested in converting a classic of some sort to electric. Mainly just for another project but I'd make sure it could get me to the airport, around town for groceries and stuff, then home with reserve.
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Me too in sort of a way. I suspect you're talking about a car, but for me I have this old '82 Honda C-70 Passport scooter that has been in our family since I bought it brand new and then passed it on to a couple of different family members. It has been dead since about 1995 and basically worn out. Super low compression, noisy transmission and now just the effects of sitting so long. It has been in good storage though and still looks pretty good.

We never had a need for it anymore, but we just hang onto it for someday... However it occurred to me the other day that it would make a fun electric conversion project, so I think that is it's destiny. We still don't really have need for a small bike like that, but who knows? I keep threatening to retire to the Keys in a few years... :cool:
 
cowman said:
Right now it's only in the idea phase but I just got done doing an International Scout II... gas powered of course. Getting into that I learned the 60's model Scout 80s had manual steering/brakes. Got me thinking of an electric Scout 80 or maybe something else with manual steering/brakes... partly because it's old/cool and partly one less design hurdle to worry about.
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That would be bad ass! Or you could do as Dennis Weaver and Charris Ford did and run french fry oil. ;)
 
Dav8or said:
Me too in sort of a way. I suspect you're talking about a car, but for me I have this old '82 Honda C-70 Passport scooter that has been in our family since I bought it brand new and then passed it on to a couple of different family members. It has been dead since about 1995 and basically worn out. Super low compression, noisy transmission and now just the effects of sitting so long. It has been in good storage though and still looks pretty good.

We never had a need for it anymore, but we just hang onto it for someday... However it occurred to me the other day that it would make a fun electric conversion project, so I think that is it's destiny. We still don't really have need for a small bike like that, but who knows? I keep threatening to retire to the Keys in a few years... :cool:
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dude so I have been toying with the idea of adding a small electric motor to my little dude's balance bike. Look at things like this:
https://www.stacycstabilitycycle.com/

...so then I toy with just buying something like this:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/18000-RPM-...503473?hash=item4b164a1eb1:g:CvkAAOSw33hZAd5u

or...
https://www.ebay.com/itm/6V-12V-180...d=322496503473&_trksid=p2045573.c100033.m2042



and things get out of hand from there.

Don't read this, even though it's a few years old and no images:
http://www.diyelectriccar.com/forums/showthread.php/yamaha-pw50-electric-180914.html
 
azblackbird said:
Biggest complaint I hear from Jason (Tesla Rep) is the "bogarting" of the superchargers. Many people driving Teslas on road trips pull in to a supercharger station (if not already full) plug in their car, and then take-off somewhere never to be seen for several hours. This really ****es off the travelers with a schedule to meet, as they have to wait around hours for the "bogarters" to return and unplug before they can plug in themselves. Some have even tried to seek reimbursement from Tesla for "trip interruption" charges.
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Yeah, they're suppose to start charging/fining the person $0.50 per minute if don't move your car from a heavy-use Supercharger. They're not doing that in enough places yet. This isn't incredibly common - I've never had to wait for a Supercharger (in 100 or so uses), but I know it happens. People suck. Tesla needs to make it prohibitively expensive to suck.

azblackbird said:
Sounds like you're not a real heavy user if you can get by with 120v.
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120V gives me 50 miles per day (12-hour day). I drive around 16000 miles per year total. It's plenty and quite a bit above average.

azblackbird said:
Another complaint I have often heard from Jason is that many who live in a condo or an older home will buy a Tesla, then realize they need an entire rewire (or new lines ran) because their current breaker boxes can't handle the additional loads required to run a charger. Others I've heard just sacrifice several circuits when they hook their charger up and make sure their water heater, heat pump, dryer, oven, or pool pump isn't in use at the time.
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You can set your car to charge at any rate you want. No need to rewire. People over-do these things. Keep in mind that a Tesla support rep will know of lots of individual anecdotes. That doesn't necessarily extrapolate to ownership as a whole.
 
deonb said:
Keep in mind that a Tesla support rep will know of lots of individual anecdotes. That doesn't necessarily extrapolate to ownership as a whole.
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True. But it's still fun listening to him tell of all the stories of the various Tesla owners and many of the problems they encounter. He's trying his damnest to get me to buy one. I like them and think they're bad ass cars, but they're just not for me. I'd probably take one of my buddy's classic conversions over a Tesla just because I'm old school. :cool:
 
azblackbird said:
There's lots of research that says otherwise. We're almost at peak energy/density capacity with the current lithium based technologies. Time for some different chemicals. ;)
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This from someone that claims the atmosphere contains 25% water (1). Lithium-based batteries have a theoretical energy density 5x of current lithium batteries (2).



(1)
azblackbird said:
So which is going to warm the atmosphere more... the 25% of H2O or the 0.0360% trace amount of CO2? You guys picked the wrong gas to make the bad guy. You guys should've picked Argon or something, it sounds more sinister and scary. Of course the welders and light bulb makers might get a little testy. :eek:
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(2) http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1021/acsenergylett.6b00033
 
Cap'n Jack said:
This from someone that claims the atmosphere contains 25% water (1). Lithium-based batteries have a theoretical energy density 5x of current lithium batteries (2).
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Daayyyyuuummm dude... I must have stung you something awful bad for you to keep bringing that up. :rofl:

You do know what "bonded" means. Oh snap... the same thing even applies to lithium based batteries, thus the reason why we're reaching the limits of their energy/density capacities.

BTW... you and your ilk sure love to use the word "theoretical" a lot... what's up with that? Don't you guys ever study facts? :rolleyes:
 
deonb said:
Yeah, they're suppose to start charging/fining the person $0.50 per minute if don't move your car from a heavy-use Supercharger. They're not doing that in enough places yet. This isn't incredibly common - I've never had to wait for a Supercharger (in 100 or so uses), but I know it happens. People suck. Tesla needs to make it prohibitively expensive to suck.
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Or Tesla just needs to not suck and build a lot more of the things. It’s not like they don’t know how many cars they’ve sold. Hmmm.
 
Wanna know why GA is doomed? Because the ground logistics of arrival aren't convenient in the least. Driving 6 hours to IAH on Saturday with a perfectly working airplane in the hangar, precisely because of it. GA sucks when it comes to the intermodal setup. I suppose I could just blame Houston for just sucking at public transportation, and the FBO for having equally useless hours.:D
 
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