Have We Angered The Economy?

KE5BM said:
I didn't mean for that to sound like I was calling you out, Tim. I should've been more specific that the media is making the situation sound like those three ships were oil tankers. Certainly it's a concern for other ships which is why the President had suggested the Navy begin escorting merchant ships through the Strait which isn't a bad idea when there's a war in the area regardless of who/why.
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Two oil tankers hit last night though.
www.independent.co.uk

Explosive boats attack tankers in Gulf as Iran ramps up threats on global shipping

Iran continues to claim attacks on commercial ships and lay mines in an effort to squeeze international energy markets
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

And Iran staying get ready for $200bbl. The attack last night on the oil tankers, and other ships the previous few days are view by many as a direct response to the US and Israel adminiistrations.
www.bbc.com

Iran steps up attacks on energy targets as tankers hit

Iranian attacks are reported in Bahrain and Oman as two foreign fuel tankers are hit near Iraq.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

BWTHDIK

Tim
 
tspear said:
Two oil tankers hit last night though.
www.independent.co.uk

Explosive boats attack tankers in Gulf as Iran ramps up threats on global shipping

Iran continues to claim attacks on commercial ships and lay mines in an effort to squeeze international energy markets
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

And Iran staying get ready for $200bbl. The attack last night on the oil tankers, and other ships the previous few days are view by many as a direct response to the US and Israel adminiistrations.
www.bbc.com

Iran steps up attacks on energy targets as tankers hit

Iranian attacks are reported in Bahrain and Oman as two foreign fuel tankers are hit near Iraq.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

BWTHDIK

Tim
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I think you'd have to have a death wish to sail a boat through the strait right now. Especially a massive, slow boat packed with flammable liquids. Might as well paint a bullseye on the hull for the IRGC.
 
Y'know, for as many years as the Strait of Hormuz has been Iran's bargaining chip, I'm surprised no one has built a pipeline across Saudi from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
 
Half Fast said:
Y'know, for as many years as the Strait of Hormuz has been Iran's bargaining chip, I'm surprised no one has built a pipeline across Saudi from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
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There are two pipelines. One in Saudi Aribia, if I recall correctly it is 750 miles long. When it is fully online which should be within the next few weeks it is designed to carry 7.5 million bbl a day of crude. There is a second one, I forget which country which is around 150 miles long that is in process of coming fully online that has a design to carry 1.5 million bbl.

What I do NOT know, and I have seen nothing posted before, is the 20 million bbl that has been going through the Strait previously exclude the existing pipe capacity or in addition too, and how long have those pipelines been running.

Tim

Edit: Found the article I recall reading:
www.cnbc.com

The two oil pipelines helping Saudi Arabia and UAE bypass the Strait of Hormuz

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline are thought to be able to help partially offset the Strait of Hormuz blockage.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Per AI chat tools, there are many others. But I could not find any answers on capacities in use not that the Strait is effectively closed.
 
tspear said:
There are two pipelines. One in Saudi Aribia, if I recall correctly it is 750 miles long. When it is fully online which should be within the next few weeks it is designed to carry 7.5 million bbl a day of crude. There is a second one, I forget which country which is around 150 miles long that is in process of coming fully online that has a design to carry 1.5 million bbl.

What I do NOT know, and I have seen nothing posted before, is the 20 million bbl that has been going through the Strait previously exclude the existing pipe capacity or in addition too, and how long have those pipelines been running.

Tim

Edit: Found the article I recall reading:
www.cnbc.com

The two oil pipelines helping Saudi Arabia and UAE bypass the Strait of Hormuz

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline are thought to be able to help partially offset the Strait of Hormuz blockage.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Per AI chat tools, there are many others. But I could not find any answers on capacities in use not that the Strait is effectively closed.
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A short one across UAE and Oman to a port on the Arabian Sea might make sense.
 
The Iran thing was the start of the market decline but the February jobs report didn’t help matters. It might be just the beginning. Possibly 50 % of white collar workers unemployed in the next few years?

 
tspear said:
@SebIp

I am fairly sure you are not a developer. I use AI tools for software development among other tasks. AI Tools are going to completely change software development, and the skills required of software developers. For those organizations and IT members who embrace the new skills it will have significant positive impacts on productivity.

There are negative aspect to AI tools though. For example, here is one, for a recent project I wrote a specification/direction of a series of tasks dealing with a library upgrade. This is a typical project I would have assigned to junior developer. Now, the assignment I gave the AI was much more detailed and took me longer to write than the directions to the junior developer would have taken. However, the AI was faster to complete the work (minutes versus days), and was significantly cheaper (a week's salary vs one month subscription to CoPilot for example).
The downside, that junior developer now has no place to learn and become a senior developer.


Tim
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Didn’t even read this reply till now.

Actually, I am and should have been clued in with what I posted, but not the sort of developer of the areas where AI is beneficial. To be clear at one point I was leading and responsible for 65+ software staff working on transportation systems.

AI is making an impact as I was saying. Just not in where I work. There is no models that fits our very specific industry. Many projects has bespoke requirements and in a lot of instances historical aspects going back centuries (yep, railways are centuries old now). And picky unionized stakeholders with their very human demands. Simply put when your code base was originally assembly, almost directly ported to C/C++, is custom proprietary real time software, where SIL 4 safety needs to be ensured or at least legally deniable should crap hit the fan you made mistakes? AI is mostly useless.

We can use AI for the UI interface part up to some point. The meat of it though. No one’s going to invest in making a model just yet. You don’t need to. Complex resignaling is too much for AI. New lines can be done without any new software just data.

I also spent sometime in an automotive company. They hired in a lot of the valley types who pushed AI very hard. As far as I know, still all it’s used for is making tests.
 
Velocity173 said:
The Iran thing was the start of the market decline but the February jobs report didn’t help matters. It might be just the beginning. Possibly 50 % of white collar workers unemployed in the next few years?

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I think a lot of companies will use AI as an excuse. It also will not go that fast.
What will happen I believe is a lot of white collar positions are going to change, and the tools will change. And the pace general productivity will dramatically increase.

Tim
 
Velocity173 said:
Possibly 50 % of white collar workers unemployed in the next few years?
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I'm skeptical, and unworried. Even if an extremely large percentage of white collar workers were to be displaced (doubtful), they won't sit around waiting to starve to death. If you turn loose a large number of experienced, educated, intelligent, motivated people, they will create entirely new technologies and industries unimagined today. Just give them a relatively free economy and the ability to keep for themselves a portion of the wealth they'll create, and watch what happens.
 
People who make predictions don't always think things through. If a large portion of the population gets laid off, who's going to buy the products that AI will supposedly be producing?

I'm pretty sure that the law of supply-and-demand will not be repealed.
 
Half Fast said:
I'm skeptical, and unworried. Even if an extremely large percentage of white collar workers were to be displaced (doubtful), they won't sit around waiting to starve to death. If you turn loose a large number of experienced, educated, intelligent, motivated people, they will create entirely new technologies and industries unimagined today. Just give them a relatively free economy and the ability to keep for themselves a portion of the wealth they'll create, and watch what happens.
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Well the optimists on the future of AI say we won’t wait around and “starve to death.” They say it’ll bring about so many innovations, we’ll get paid (UBI) to do nothing. Musk stated last year that in 25 years, people won’t have to work at all. We’ll work only if we want to. Yeah I’m a skeptic but Musk is also usually pretty good on predicting future events. His timelines are usually off though.

To me the recent Longshormen’s strike is a warning of possible future events. Of course they went on strike because of money but the other stipulation was that their jobs can’t be replaced with automation. I think we’re quickly approaching a time where companies will have to decide to pay human laborers to do a job more costly and inefficient than automation. Or, you fire them and use AI. That world might very well be rainbows and unicorns or it could crash the economy before we can get a UBI in place. Not sure if Andrew Yang is crying wolf or he could be the ultimate “I told ya so.” Maybe reality is somewhere in between.
 
Velocity173 said:
To me the recent Longshormen’s strike is a warning of possible future events. Of course they went on strike because of money but the other stipulation was that their jobs can’t be replaced with automation. I think we’re quickly approaching a time where companies will have to decide to pay human laborers to do a job more costly and inefficient than automation. Or, you fire them and use AI.
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There really is nothing new under the sun. A repeat of the Luddite riots of early 1800's. :oops:
 
With the oil/gas field escalation over the prior day in the middle east.
I believe the chance of elevated prices for O&G will continue for a while.

Has anyone seen a good analysis linking O&G prices to GDP? e.g. A short time spike likely does not have much of an impact on the general trajectory. But if the prices stay above $100bbl for 1 month, what does that mean? 3 months? 6 months?

Tim
 
tspear said:
With the oil/gas field escalation over the prior day in the middle east.
I believe the chance of elevated prices for O&G will continue for a while.

Has anyone seen a good analysis linking O&G prices to GDP? e.g. A short time spike likely does not have much of an impact on the general trajectory. But if the prices stay above $100bbl for 1 month, what does that mean? 3 months? 6 months?

Tim
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Since the US is a net exporter of oil, wouldn’t that mean the GDP would go up?
 
No, O&G production is too small a portion of the GDP compared to the ripple effects on the consumption side.
That much I have seen debated a number of times.
The economic neutral point affecting GDP (production revenue vs consumption costs) I have seen is mostly around $20bbl; but the market actually seems happier around $60.

Tim
 
Velocity173 said:
Well the optimists on the future of AI say we won’t wait around and “starve to death.” They say it’ll bring about so many innovations, we’ll get paid (UBI) to do nothing. Musk stated last year that in 25 years, people won’t have to work at all. We’ll work only if we want to. Yeah I’m a skeptic but Musk is also usually pretty good on predicting future events. His timelines are usually off though.

To me the recent Longshormen’s strike is a warning of possible future events. Of course they went on strike because of money but the other stipulation was that their jobs can’t be replaced with automation. I think we’re quickly approaching a time where companies will have to decide to pay human laborers to do a job more costly and inefficient than automation. Or, you fire them and use AI. That world might very well be rainbows and unicorns or it could crash the economy before we can get a UBI in place. Not sure if Andrew Yang is crying wolf or he could be the ultimate “I told ya so.” Maybe reality is somewhere in between.
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I bet if you went back 150 years and told the people then what the world would look like in the future and how all their jobs would go away, they’d wonder what people would do all day as well.
 
Sam D said:
I bet if you went back 150 years and told the people then what the world would look like in the future and how all their jobs would go away, they’d wonder what people would do all day as well.
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nailed-it.gif
 
Sam D said:
I bet if you went back 150 years and told the people then what the world would look like in the future and how all their jobs would go away, they’d wonder what people would do all day as well.
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Oh, come on... it would make perfect sense to a 19th century farmer that my wife and I both spend the majority of our days sitting a foot-and-a-half away from a 16"x20"x1" slab that contains a little white arrow that we move around.
 
Velocity173 said:
Well the optimists on the future of AI say we won’t wait around and “starve to death.”…
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They also won’t tell you AI comes with a monetary cost behind it for the companies using it. Heavy users of AI are already setting limits on AI tool usage based on what is effectively simple ROI. If an employee’s token spend outweighs their results, they lose access to tools.
 
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