GA pilot decline

Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by brien23, Jul 10, 2018.

  1. brien23

    brien23 Cleared for Takeoff

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    From the high of 300,000 pilots in 1980 a steady 10,000 pilot decline in GA a year, and the FAA takes credit for the record low fatal Accident rate?
     
  2. wayne

    wayne Cleared for Takeoff

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    Why shouldn't they? They've been successful in reducing the number of GA pilots. o_O :eek:
     
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  3. Mtns2Skies

    Mtns2Skies Super Moderator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

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    I find it interesting that the used aircraft market has been skyrocketing. If the supply of pilots is decreasing then where is the demand for these planes coming from?
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2018
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  4. EdFred

    EdFred Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Inflation.
     
  5. hotprops

    hotprops Line Up and Wait

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    something wrong with info 37 years times 10,000 per = 370,000. 300k-370k=-70k
     
  6. SixPapaCharlie

    SixPapaCharlie May the force be with you

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    Flying is too expensive.
     
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  7. rbridges

    rbridges En-Route

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    the cost of ownership has definitely outpaced wages over the decades.
     
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  8. Getonit

    Getonit Pre-takeoff checklist

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    I get too many chicks being a GA pilot, wearing me out, reason i am quitting.
     
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  9. mondtster

    mondtster Pattern Altitude

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    Aviation activity is directly related to the economy as a whole. When times are good people will be buying and flying airplanes. When times aren’t so good, Aviation is one of the first places to show it. It’s not too hard to see what’s going on right now. Wait a few years and I suspect you’ll see a reversal.
     
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  10. EdFred

    EdFred Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    You should move up to sheep.
     
  11. steingar

    steingar Taxi to Parking

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    2008 shook out a lot of pilots on the edges, probably doomed a lot of iffy airframes. Next downturn will do the same. Sooner or later we'll dip below critical mass and that'll be all she wrote.
     
  12. Mtns2Skies

    Mtns2Skies Super Moderator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

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    Not really. While most people can't afford new airplanes, they're still being bought and built en masse. Cirri are bought by consumers new, Cessna are bought by large flight schools and government agencies and Pipers are bought en masse by flight schools. Plenty of new airframes being introduced that in 10-20 years will be affordable to us peasants.

    As far as pilot #'s well... time will tell.
     
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  13. gsengle

    gsengle Pattern Altitude

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    Isn’t the rate measured per flight hour not per pilot?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  14. FlyingElvii

    FlyingElvii Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Economics...
    The factories are reopening, and the middle class has money again.
     
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  15. brien23

    brien23 Cleared for Takeoff

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    private-pilots-graph.jpg
    Your right The numbers in the post were 300,000 private pilot in 1980 and 10,000 total pilot loss a year to 2008. The chart above does not mix private pilot loss with total loss.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2018
  16. MooneyDriver78

    MooneyDriver78 Pattern Altitude

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    Accidents, corrosion, neglect....we’re losing them faster then they are building them.
     
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  17. frfly172

    frfly172 Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Hopefully the EAAs young eagles program and eagles program will help to stop the slide,AOPA also is pushing the rusty pilots program ,to try and get some pilots back. FBO fees aren’t helping.
     
  18. labbadabba

    labbadabba Pattern Altitude

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    ??
     
  19. Tantalum

    Tantalum En-Route

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    There's an ATCMemes ERAU meme in there somewhere...
     
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  20. mscard88

    mscard88 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Flight school I instruct at is pretty darn busy. 7-8 part time CFIs, 5 "old" airplanes. Newest are 1980 C172 & C152.
     
  21. Tantalum

    Tantalum En-Route

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    SEE and MYF are a zoo most days. But it seems like most of the students are there to eventually go pro. Rarely meet people anymore who just learn for the fun of it.. which does come down to cost. While Cessna, Piper, and Cirrus still sells planes, with the upper range of Cirrus approaching $1M I think by and large the hourly operating costs keep most people out of it. And yeah, Cirrus is the pack leader.. BUT, most companies would have a hard time surviving on just 300 units/yr.. amazing they can keep the costs as low as they do when you think about it

    Even at a modest $120/hr to fly a rental beater.. that's still a full day of skiing, a nice dinner, etc. Flying kicks ass, but I do believe it's the costs primarily

    ...and the other stuff we've talked about in our other "make GA great again" threads
     
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  22. dmspilot

    dmspilot En-Route

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    Market fluctations in aircraft pricing occur on a much shorter timespan than changes in the pilot population. Also there are few new aircraft being made, and the ones that are being made cost 10 times as much as a used aircraft, so less supply.
     
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  23. James331

    James331 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Same reason less people hunt, camp, shoot, build forts in the woods as kids, etc.

    Less freedoms and less critical thinking being encouraged for kids.
     
  24. Ryanb

    Ryanb Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    Your chart also ends in 2009, which was basically right at the tail end of the economic crisis. I would imagine you’d see the number begin to rise after 2010-2011 or so.
     
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  25. EdFred

    EdFred Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    2017 Airmen Stats (estimated source FAA)
    Pilot--Total 609,306
    Student 149,121
    Recreational (only) 153
    Sport (only) 6,097
    Airplane-2
    Private 162,455
    Commercial 98,161
    Airline Transport 159,825
    Rotorcraft (only)-3 15,355
    Glider (only )-4,5 18,139
    Flight Instructor Certificates-6 106,692
    Instrument Ratings-6,7 306,652
    Remote Pilots-9 69,166

    2 Includes pilots with an airplane only certificate. Also includes those with an airplane and a helicopter and/or glider certificate.
    3 See table 7 for the total number of pilots with a helicopter certificate.
    4 See table 8 for the total number of pilots with a glider certificate.
    5 Glider pilots are not required to have a medical examination. Beginning with 2002, glider pilots with another rating but no current medical are counted as "Glider (only)."
    6 Not included in total.
    7 Special ratings shown on pilot certificates, do not indicate additional certificates.
    9 Remote pilot certification started in August 2016. These numbers are not included in the pilot totals.


    https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/
     
  26. SkyDog58

    SkyDog58 Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Math is hard.

    Using it to make an invalid point is even harder.
     
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  27. chemgeek

    chemgeek Line Up and Wait

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    One of the trends I have seen in 30+ years higher ed is less involvement with reality (hobbies, outdoor activities, sports) and more involvement with electronic media. I've also noticed that my students have become more risk averse over time. This all bodes poorly for taking up flying.

    I grew up at a time when flying was one of those poor kid dreams. By the time I was 29 I realized I wasn't poor anymore and flying was within my reach. Haven't looked back. At the time it seemed very, ridiculously expensive, but I got past that and have enjoyed flying ever since.

    FWIW, I think the declining accident rate has a lot to do with the manifold safety improvements afforded by GPS navigation and in flight weather. Getting from A to B has never been simpler, including instrument approaches. I've flown long enough to remember doing it in a way I wouldn't go back to. Now if we can just train pilots to avoid the stupid stuff, like poor maintenance, fuel mismanagement, VFR into IFR, and loss of control.
     
  28. idahoflier

    idahoflier Line Up and Wait

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    This! It's amazing to me how many aircraft just sit and slowly corrode away. I recently saw an add for a C182 that while hangered, hadn't flown since it's last annual in... 2006!
     
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  29. dtuuri

    dtuuri En-Route

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    No doubt. The experience level of the pilot population is greater, too, because there are less students and low-time, risky neophytes careening around the sky. I don't think TAA aircraft should get credit. GPS, yes. Moving maps, yes. Information inundation? No.
     
  30. Ryanb

    Ryanb Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    What's more amazing is that people actually pay the bill to let them sit and rot on the tarmac!
     
  31. EppyGA

    EppyGA Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Our EAA Chapter has held three Rusty Pilot programs and have the fourth scheduled for September. We've had good attendance, not sure how many have reentered general aviation as a result. In May we had a Flying Start event and had 15 in attendance. It was meant for those interested in becoming pilots. We flew most of them as Eagle Flights that day, not sure any have moved forward.

    Our youth program is paying dividends for us. Every Saturday we have from 10-18 young folks (age 14 and up) come work on our three project planes and earn dollar credits that can be used toward flight training. One young man took his check ride on March 30th, his 17th birthday. Our second PPL is now a Naval Officer and in the Naval Aviator program. We have a third nearing his check ride and a fourth we hope will take her check ride before summer is over. She will be headed off to college and be in an aviation program at college.

    This article was written by our first young man.

    http://inspire.eaa.org/2018/07/03/building-and-flying-at-eaa-chapter-690/
     
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  32. MIFlyer

    MIFlyer Line Up and Wait PoA Supporter

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    this is weird data. did 30k dies in one year?? or get revocations? you're still a pilot until one of them happens, even if you don't have a current BFR or medical.

    is this "active pilots"? we need a definition to make this meaningful
     
  33. MIFlyer

    MIFlyer Line Up and Wait PoA Supporter

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    it's just a damned shame when it's so hard to find a good airframe yet there are 10's of thousands rotting. i support peoples' right to do what they want, but it's a shame not to get those things sold, even cheaply, to a new owner.

    additionally, hangars and tie downs might become available. my airport has an indefinite wait for TIE DOWNs, don't even dream about a hangar spot
     
  34. CC268

    CC268 Final Approach

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    Agreed. That's been my only complaint about GA. There just aren't a lot of younger guys my age that are involved in it. The exception is the flight instructors at the schools. I'm hoping when I get my CFI I will meet more younger people who fly.
     
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  35. JohnAJohnson

    JohnAJohnson Cleared for Takeoff

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    I don't know about that. In 20-30 years those born today will be looking for a drone type craft that takes commands such as "go to the beach" or "go to grandmas". In the words of Bob Pittman, "Convenience is King". Traffic and terrain/obstacle avoidance will be handled by computer with no piloting skills required. I believe the PA-28s/172s will be as in demand to them as TriMotors are to Airline companies today. And I know this is hard for many of us to believe or accept, but our government, representing the other 99.9% of citizens, will probably outlaw or severely restrict the use of PA-28s/172s for the danger they present to the drone type craft and the drone type individuals that will occupy them.
     
  36. EdFred

    EdFred Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Interesting age distribution.
     

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  37. labbadabba

    labbadabba Pattern Altitude

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    Kids these days
     
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  38. JohnAJohnson

    JohnAJohnson Cleared for Takeoff

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    And less inquisitive.
     
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  39. Sinistar

    Sinistar Pattern Altitude

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    Good thing about math, we can use @EdFred's data above to clearly correlate @Getonit's findings....the problem of GA pilots getting too many babes has resulted in a obvious shift towards higher numbers of Commercial and ATP licenses. See, problem solved :)
     
  40. 1RTK1

    1RTK1 Cleared for Takeoff

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    There is no reason to do most of the things I as a kid did 40 years ago. We did not have video games, 300 channels on TV, an iphone that they can't set down and many other things that keep kids from enjoying the things I did.
    I built model airplanes, rode my bike, etc. and would give my left nut to go to the airport and get a ride. Hell even just watch planes take off and land.
    Granted flying planes are more expensive now, but hell an Iphone is a grand, kids just aren't motivated to learn to fly to many other "easier" activities to participate in.
     
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