COVID-19 Aftermath: What will change?

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by AggieMike88, Mar 20, 2020.

  1. AggieMike88

    AggieMike88 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The original "I don't know it all" of aviation.
    Once this COVID-19 pandemic is dealt with and starts fading into history, what changes do you think will occur in culture, business, government, supply chains, healthcare science, etc?
     
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  2. GRG55

    GRG55 Final Approach

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    Every time the word "virus" starts circulating in the MSM and social media (for example, next fall when flu season starts up again?) there's the potential for a consistently more emotional reaction, and another run on toilet paper, compared to the past. :dunno:

    (I know a few people that have become so fearful they are on the verge of emotional panic for the past couple of weeks)
     
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  3. wsuffa

    wsuffa Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Well, it has shown the limits of freedom and the expansive emergency/martial law powers by those elected. We could go one of two ways: limit those powers and constrain government OR become more totalitarian.

    Politico.com has a much more extensive analysis.
     
  4. cowman

    cowman En-Route

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    I don't think anything should change. Eventually the infections will peak, restrictions will end, and by this time next year I suspect it will just be another one of the diseases we know about and people occasionally get. Sometimes stuff just happens, we can't control everything in the world. The last thing I want is a bunch of additional laws and regulations trying to control the uncontrollable.
     
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  5. Matthew

    Matthew Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I suspect more people and companies will be doing more telecommuting.

    I wonder about college and universities - once students, and parents, realize how much can be done online and at potentially a lower cost, how's that all going to turn out?

    I'm not sure what sort of short or long term affect this will have on our border and immigration policies.
     
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  6. Bell206

    Bell206 En-Route

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    I foresee a quarter to a third of certain overseas manufacture sites returning stateside with other "factories" accelerating their move out of China as was happening prior to the current outbreak. Plus I believe they'll finally fix the CDC procedural issues first discovered during the swine flu that unfortunately manifest themselves with this virus.
     
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  7. Ryanb

    Ryanb Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    I think many people believe this is all some newfound phenomena that’s occurring in history. It isn’t.

    Look back at all of the outbreaks of diseases in the past - Smallpox, yellow fever, cholera, polio, measles etc., this is just another one that will be added to the list and we just happen to be living through it. What I hope will change, is the sanitation standards of society. I’ve seen a lot of public places take extra precautions to sanitize their facilities and I hope that continues.
     
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  8. painless

    painless Pre-takeoff checklist

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    The stock market will bounce back??
     
  9. midwestpa24

    midwestpa24 Pattern Altitude

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    The big difference with diseases of today versus the big outbreaks of long ago is air travel. You can now get from anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world in under 24 hours, or less time than nearly any disease begins showing symptoms. Back in the olden days, you had to travel by rail or ship around the world, it took days or weeks to get anywhere. It was possible to quarantine a ship that arrived in port with sick and dead on board. Now today, it is possible for diseases to spread farther and faster than ever before. I don't think we've had a major outbreak in modern times of this extent.
     
  10. cowman

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    This would be a good thing regardless of any virus. I think the barrier has always been managerial types being so afraid of losing their control. There's also a cultural hangup we seem to have in the US where we equate hours spent at work to productivity. I know a lot of people go to work and work hard all day but I've seen many offices where people just drag along or waste hours decorating their cubicles/socializing/etc every week just because they need to be there so many hours to please management or get their hourly paychecks. I imagine for those people telecommuting wouldn't change much but they'd be home where they could take care of stuff in their own lives or just relax and recover instead.
     
  11. Velocity173

    Velocity173 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I think the entire healthcare community will learn that they weren’t as prepared as they should have been. Not that it’s been a complete fiasco so far but they’re finding areas to improve upon. Maybe stoping the decline of our rural area hospitals will help?

    On the HAA side, we’re always prepared but we’ll streamline the procedures/ policies for transport after this. It’ll still be a tedious process but moving forward, there won’t be as many questions or confusion. Basically improving upon the task based on previous real world experience.


    https://www.verticalmag.com/news/coronavirus-helicopter-ems-safety-measures/
     
  12. midwestpa24

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    I'm not sure anything will help that. Its sheer economics and the US population has been shifting to city centers for the last several decades, causing rural areas to lose population and funding. That trend may change eventually, but who knows when.
     
  13. Velocity173

    Velocity173 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    There’s nothing going to stem the tide of the closures. It’s primarily operating costs vs healthcare reimbursements and not a population shift. Many rural areas are experiencing a population growth and still are losing their hospitals. All it does it put further strain on urban hospitals thereby compounding the current situation.
     
  14. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

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    Perhaps people will come out of this and be more inclined to save, have less waste, etc. Depending on how long this goes I imagine we'll come out of it stronger as a race, overall.
     
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  15. AggieMike88

    AggieMike88 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The original "I don't know it all" of aviation.
    The “what doesn’t kill you” outlook, eh?
     
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  16. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

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    Hopefully.. my parents had a much different mindset on things.. very little waste, don't need lots of cars, buy cheap, save up, but don't take more than you need. Generations (myself included) lost that.. got used to an instant gratification app for everything mindset. Perhaps living through something like this will help restore some of that mindset people who lived in Eastern Bloc countries or lived through the wars, etc. had

    Ofcourse, depending on how long it lasts, there's always that thin potential of governments and things really breaking down.. or people not actually learning and being even more wasteful when this is all said and done because "hey let's splurge, it's back" - kind of like how new millionaires end up going broke and bankrupt

    We'll see
     
  17. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down

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    Doubt it. Medevac in rural areas is cheaper than medical staff doing nothing in empty facilities, even if it kills people in larger events.

    That said, super dense urban areas aren’t going to come out of this one real well off, either.
     
  18. asicer

    asicer En-Route

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    How do you think those people with 12 dozen spoiled eggs and 18 gallons of spoiled milk will react?
     
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  19. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    It's gonna take a while. I had heard before all of this started that indicators were predicting a recession around Q2 of next year... We've merely accelerated that by killing off a bunch of the weaker, smaller businesses. If this disease is still causing trouble next fall and winter, we could be in for an extended recession/depression.

    It'll bounce back one way or another... Eventually.
     
  20. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

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    They'll probably try to return it, then get upset when they can't. They're idiots.
     
  21. wsuffa

    wsuffa Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I believe that it will take years to recover. And that this country will look radically different - there's already a lot of noise for "guaranteed basic income" (e.g. social security for all) and "medicare for all".

    This is, effectively, the kind of disruption that the Great Depression was, which enabled FDR to put in a massive regulatory structure (including the CAA).
     
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  22. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

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    I've read and heard some rumors about this putting airlines back in under regulation with the government having an equity ownership if they get another bailout

    who knows, I know the deregulation thing was initially a big boom for the airlines (and less gov=good), but with continually decreasing passenger experiences and a borderline hostile attitude from the airlines to the passengers and up until now soaring profits and buybacks it might make sense
     
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  23. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    Nothing of significance. In about a month we’ll be getting back to normal. Stock market will start a climb as people get back to work and production lines get back on line. Companies like Walmart/Costco may incorporate some rationing into their internal policies to try and combat the hoarding earlier in a National Emergency situation. I doubt many companies shift to working more from home since there are still too many boomers and their children who can’t separate productivity from someone being on-site physically.

    There will probably be some political wrangling over what bills should be passed to fix some part of the medical field to address similar pandemics, but it will probably be worse than leaving everything as-is.

    In less than a year they’ll have some vaccines made for it and we’ll likely not hear much about it again.
     
  24. Brad Z

    Brad Z Final Approach

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    Handshakes are now a thing of the past.
     
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  25. crash7

    crash7 Pre-takeoff checklist

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    You say we’ll be getting back to normal in a month. Then say in less than a YEAR they’ll have some vaccine. Uhhhh, based on the overreaching we’re seeing occur minute by minute, how the hell will we be all be released back into the wild in a month?


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  26. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    Vaccines aren’t required for us to return to normal. Life went on with SARS, swine flu, etc without vaccines being available, same goes with certain strains of influenza every year. In “about a month” the rate of cases/deaths will likely have peaked and Warner seasonal temps will help stifle some of the virus ability to continue. It doesn’t mean it will take a year to find medications to deal with the infected group to aid in recovery, but a vaccine takes quite a bit longer to develop in order to create one that does its job effectively without causing worse issues among the populace.

    The stock market will take more than a year to recover for sure, but I’d expect a decent bounce back by the time Trump wins re-election in November (my prediction).
     
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  27. crash7

    crash7 Pre-takeoff checklist

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    At this point, it’s government reaction that gives me little hope of “normal” for some time to come. They know what’s good for us, after all...


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  28. DFH65

    DFH65 Pattern Altitude

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    Had you asked me this before 911 I would have answered differently. Now I don't know. After 911 this country caved to the terrorists. We changed who we are and how we react to things. The America I grew up in would have built the twin towers back up and floor or two taller in less than a year no matter what the cost just to thumb our noses at them. Instead we got the Department of Homeland Security, the TSA and FISA courts.

    What I hope happens is we realize dependence on China for critical supplies is idiotic. That this is just a blip and we can rebuild and make things better.

    What will probably happen is all sorts of long lasting restrictions on freedom. More government run nonsense. More sheep looking to big brother to keep them "safe" and willing to give up freedom for safety. It all sickens me.
     
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  29. German guy

    German guy Cleared for Takeoff

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    I wonder if this will have any long term effects on airlines or if they will quickly bounce back once all of this is over? I guess that people will be hungry to go places after being forced to stay at home for weeks or months.
     
  30. chemgeek

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    I think this is wildly optimistic. Things will NOT be normal in a month. If we are lucky, the peak will hit in 1-2 months, then it's a long slide down to a low level of infection. It took China 4 months to gain control. Unless we leave the disease run out of control with millions of deaths, there will always be the potential of additional outbreaks due to the pool of non immune individuals. A viable vaccine will be required to tamp things down for good.

    I would be surprised if we have a deliverable, effective vaccine by March 2021. There are so many challenges yet to overcome that cannot be rushed. We are not yet certain which of the vaccine approaches will be effective, much less safe. With time we are likely to get there. Maybe we will get lucky. I AM optimistic we will identify and deploy some effective therapeutic agents in the next 12 months. That will help a lot if supply can be maintained.
     
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  31. chartbundle

    chartbundle Cleared for Takeoff

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    Once supplies return to normal I'm going to consider anything less than 48 rolls of toilet paper, 24 rolls of paper towels, 2 gallons of alcohol, 2 boxes of gloves and 2 boxes of masks in the house an emergency and go to Costco right then.
     
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  32. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    I didn’t mean to imply that everything would just snap back like it never happened in a month’s time. I just mean that in a month we will have likely hit the peak of the curve and people will start to return to their normal lives. Companies will start production back up and rehire employees and such. I don’t think it’s going to take us until July to sort it out. I don’t think most Americans have the kind of self-restraint to continue in quarantine for that long, especially as the weather warms.
     
  33. asicer

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    Costco, eh? So that's one sales unit quantity of each item...
     
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  34. Brad Z

    Brad Z Final Approach

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    I've always thought that the current educational delivery method for higher universities was inefficient and unnecessarily unnecessary. The concept of going away and living on campus for four years is a relatively recent trend for the middle class, and I expect that online education will get a boost from being a marginal product of questionable for-profit universities, to being a bonafide coat effective alternative to traditional universities.
     
  35. chartbundle

    chartbundle Cleared for Takeoff

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    Although I personally work from home now I hope that this will also encourage more employers to allow/prefer work from home employees in those industries where they make sense. Employers need less floor space, less parking, employees don't spend half their lives commuting, and the public wins with fewer people causing traffic.
     
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  36. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    Many universities (including my former employer) have been offering courses online for several years now. I taught one on a regular basis, and that was more than 5 years ago.

    I have always been of the opinion that the online version of the course was inferior to the in-person version. That could change, though, now that we have much higher bandwidth available in most parts of the country, allowing streaming video and real online "classrooms" via teleconference software like Go To Meeting.

    If there is a change in attitudes toward online education after this experience, it will more likely be because it will be seen to actually work now. In the past, that was much less true.
     
  37. ARFlyer

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    Depending on how this shakes out I think this could be one of those generation defining moments kinda like the Great Depression. Also, it could get swept under the rug like the Spanish Flu except for a small paragraph in history books.

    Anyway, I think airline travel will be radically different. We’ve already seen one regional fold and will like see others quite soon. I can see it going back to a earlier model of weekly flights and not every hour to Podunk, Nowhere. We’ll see recreational GA collapse even further.

    Hopefully, the medical community will see the benefit of stockpiling for emergencies. Retail will most likely have item limits in purchases to prevent what’s occurring now.

    Companies and governments will see the benefits of teleworking in reducing costs. I have a feeling the FAA will slowly start reducing our FSDO footprint. I kinda like my actual office which is extremely rare in the FAA cubicle mindset...

    I think before it’s all said and done we will have created our worst case scenario. Humans have a unique ability to create what our fears project. People are scared to death of a Great Depression, supplies being gone, hospitals overrun, and chaos on the streets. They’ll have it just by sheer willpower to create it by mistake.
     
  38. Jim K

    Jim K Pre-takeoff checklist

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    What we should do is reevaluate our relationship with China. They have proven to be unwilling to take the steps necessary to prevent diseases like this from developing and spreading. That is to say nothing of the myriad of human rights abuses. Relying on them for the production of so much of our goods is dangerous.

    What are will do is add a little more socialism and go right back to turning a blind eye to an awful regime so long as their peasants continue to make our crap for next to nothing.
     
  39. Brad Z

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    Absolutely true. I think it's mainstreamed the delivery method, as now literally every college student in America (and probably most of the world) is now an online student.

    I think my other point is that we will drift away from the concept of college as a four year experience, and distill it for what it is...an opportunity to focus on learning an area of study.
     
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  40. Juliet Hotel

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    I now wash my hands using (I assume) the same or similar methods surgeons use to wash theirs. That will likely never change for me. Other than that, I don't expect much to be different when this is all said and done.
     
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