Cancelling flight tomorrow to Seattle. Would you?

Discussion in 'Cleared for the Approach' started by TheGolfPilot, Nov 21, 2016.

  1. TheGolfPilot

    TheGolfPilot Line Up and Wait

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    I have had planned a trip to go up to Seattle from Concord tomorrow afternoon. Knowing it was winter I had booked us 3 southwest tickets a few months ago as a just in case.
    I am very comfortable flying in IMC for long periods of time, and the only things that would hold me back is severe weather, and airplane capabilities (182, no deice) Looking at tomorrow's weather I have decided it's best to take the southwest flight. Scud running under icy clouds, up the west coast, is not my idea of fun.

    Is there anybody, looking at the current forecast, that would try to make that flight (in non-deiced plane) If so would you climb through and descend through ice?

    Somebody with FIKI, does this forecast look like a no brainer go decision?
     
  2. mscard88

    mscard88 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    You sound like your wanting others to support your decision not to fly yourself. Don't do that to yourself. If you feel it's not something you want to deal with be fine with that. What you're doing is actually a harder decision then deciding to go, weather be damned. You're making the right call. Stick with it.
     
  3. jordane93

    jordane93 Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    Non FIKI plane into FIKI? No thanks.
     
  4. Joshuajayg

    Joshuajayg Line Up and Wait

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    Agreed. Bad idea Plus illegal.
     
  5. Shawn

    Shawn En-Route

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    Nope

    My folks live outside of Seattle and I have been wanting to fly up there form the Bay Area, but I am usually heading over the winter and have yet to have a good enough weather window when I needed to go. Looking at the MEA's and Icing Forecast alone for tomorrow that would be a no brainer Southwest Airlines call for me.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2016
  6. James331

    James331 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I fly FIKI and own non FIKI, I don't mess with ice in non ice airplanes, my life is really cool and I really like my airplane in the condition it's in; that's not conducive to flying non FIKI in ice.
     
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  7. tree96

    tree96 Pre-takeoff checklist

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    FIKI no? We won't go!
     
  8. Ryanb

    Ryanb En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Hopefully nobody would be dumb enough to attempt this. Absolutely not.

    You exercised good ADM, so don't question your choice. There will always be another day to fly it. Sit back, relax and enjoy your airline ride.
     
  9. Pilawt

    Pilawt En-Route

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    Pacific Northwest clouds are prolific icemakers, forecast or not. Good call.
     
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  10. Kritchlow

    Kritchlow En-Route

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    Sounds to me like you are making a sound decision.
     
  11. MAKG1

    MAKG1 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Don't second guess yourself. You made the call. I have a personal rule not to reverse a no go decision, to avoid a rationalization trap. Weather often is different than forecast, and sometimes it's a lot better.

    Though the only ice AIRMET on the west coast right now is right along the coast. It does include Seattle, but the ceiling there is 10,000 feet. I'd file that for next time.

    There is lots of IMC and some turbulence. Not a pleasant flight.
     
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2016
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  12. Tom-D

    Tom-D Taxi to Parking

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  13. MetalCloud

    MetalCloud Line Up and Wait

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    Hell yes I'd cancel.
     
  14. bobmrg

    bobmrg Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    When the question is "If..." the answer is NO.

    Bob Gardner
     
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  15. FlySince9

    FlySince9 Pattern Altitude

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    Like that!
     
  16. Tom-D

    Tom-D Taxi to Parking

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    Right now it is VFR in northern Puget Sound, there are rain showers stacked up east of AWO, to the west is is clearing. but the nice thing about Puget Sound weather is, if you don't like it, wait 5 minutes it will change.
     
  17. luvflyin

    luvflyin En-Route PoA Supporter

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    All of the above and good for having the backup plan in place and ready to go to make that decision easier
     
  18. Tampico Trauma

    Tampico Trauma Line Up and Wait

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    Mauled Formerly known as Tampico Trauma
    Might I point out the flight last December where the guy thought it'd be cool to turn his Lance into a popsicle until it removed its tail and sent him, his wife, and three kids into an almond orchard ten miles from my house.

    If you have a single second thought, southwest it.


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  19. Pilawt

    Pilawt En-Route

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    Even if you made it to Seattle, you'd have to wait for a hole in the weather to make it back home. That might come in April.

    It's tough to plan long trips in the PNW this time of year ...
     
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  20. James331

    James331 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I'd probably risk the ice before that

    Virgin FTW ;)
     
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  21. Tampico Trauma

    Tampico Trauma Line Up and Wait

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    I just booked a redeye on Spirit LAX-BWI for myself and my 5 year old daughter in two weeks. I could only wish for Virgin or SWA.


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  22. MAKG1

    MAKG1 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    While I've heard speculation about ice in that accident, I've heard nothing definitive. Have you?

    Some of the more interesting speculation was that he encountered strong updrafts, probably mountain waves, in alt hold, didn't understand the high speeds, and lost it when the autopilot kicked off, leading to disorientation and overspeed. It explains a lot of the details, particularly early high speeds. Ice doesn't do that, at least not on its own.

    Illegal IFR certainly played a role. That part is definitive.
     
  23. Tampico Trauma

    Tampico Trauma Line Up and Wait

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    From what I recall-- he was dead center in the icing zone that day. Including flying through visible moisture.

    His previous call was for vectors to the nearest airport. (BFL wasn't the closest but probably the best choice) and shortly thereafter, a painful mayday call.

    My speculation is that he noticed the ice and/or the effects of it and started to panic. At which point he either performed a poorly planned emergency descent at which the tail removed itself enroute...

    Or the tail turned into a popsicle, removed itself, initiating an unexpected descent.

    The weather was ****ty, even by Central Valley standards.




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  24. Tom-D

    Tom-D Taxi to Parking

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    We have low ceilings and high winds this morning. Freeze level at 2500'
     
  25. MIFlyer

    MIFlyer Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Yep, scrubbing out my planned very from Krnt to Kkls tomorrow unless the weather improves massively


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  26. MIFlyer

    MIFlyer Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Very =vfr


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  27. Ghery

    Ghery Final Approach

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    It's been a while since this thread was active, but this statement is so true. This time of year I have a hard time flying, even in the pattern to maintain proficiency. Looking back, you made the right choice. Southwest all the way.
     
  28. Pilawt

    Pilawt En-Route

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    We're moving from Vancouver WA to Phoenix next month. But I rented a hangar in the Phoenix area already, and repositioned my 172 down there in late October, before the really bad weather kicked in. Looking at the current extended forecast, I'd sure hate to be planning that trip now.
     
  29. Tom-D

    Tom-D Taxi to Parking

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    We had 3 days last week it could have been done easy. That's the nice thing about Puget Sound, if you don't like the weather wait 5 minutes.