Wagondriver
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A lot lower than that already. I'm 100 miles south of Missoula, we have snow on the north facing slopes down to about 8K.
Aztec down in Montana wilderness
- Thread starter Piperonca
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A lot lower than that already. I'm 100 miles south of Missoula, we have snow on the north facing slopes down to about 8K.
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During my early flying days in northern Utah solo cross-countries would not be allowed with forecast winds exceeding 25 knots at mountaintop altitudes. Many years later I've frequently flown over the mountains in the east with winds in the 30+ knot range and endured plenty of wave action and turbulence. Once, following a cold front passage where apparently the jet stream dipped down into the mid teens I encountered a rotor at the bottom of a strong smooth wave downdraft, in VMC conditions, just southeast of NY's Catskill mountains (over SAGE intersection).
The wave induced descent began at 12,000' mil, a thousand feet or two VMC over a solid cloud deck and it wasn't possible to maintain altitude in the descent with airspeed at Vy. ATC asked why the groundspeed was showing 40 kts during the descent, and soon after a King Air reported a PIREP of northwest winds at 15,000' at 150 kts.
At the bottom of the smooth wave there were torn up small cloud pieces hanging just above the clouds and that's where an invisible rotor was located. To this day, that was the most severe turbulence I've ever encountered... times 100. It only lasted 10 seconds or so, but the Mooney was momentarily out of control. Dirt and debris off the carpet floated around the cockpit, along with my flight bag which bounced between the ceiling and the right seat cushion. Full aileron was needed to prevent exceeding 90 degrees of bank. Then, as quickly as it developed it was over and a smooth up wave began.
My event was caused by a cold front with winds passing over a small mountain range that was over 8,000' below.
In the example of this tragedy, forget about the icing potential... 45 kts of wind forecast at mountain top levels, and higher winds above while approaching the Continental Divide, is nowhere to be operating a light piston without an increased risk factor.
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Ralph Parmenter Bennett
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To echo some of bbchien comments. In the area for a University Homecoming, I was flying along the Rocky Mountain Front on that day. Icing Pireps at and below the MEA altitudes, at least moderate turb, variable cloud layers. Great Falls Center sometimes cannot see you or even hear transmissions along that route of flight. That direct route is very lonely and a survivable landing within the Young's Creek area of 'The BOB' would require a minor miracle. It takes hours to reach Young's Creek via foot or horse and there was significant early season snow early in the mountains. I would wonder whether the reported "engine problem' might have been an icing problem. Single engine in that area usually means your screwed.
Many many years ago this then young man flew freight along the I-90 corridor in a non turb Cessna 310 when Montana still had airway beacons strung like a string of pearls into KMSO. The denial & ignorance of my youth and desire to build multi time prevented me from intelligently considering single engine service altitudes.
Many many years ago this then young man flew freight along the I-90 corridor in a non turb Cessna 310 when Montana still had airway beacons strung like a string of pearls into KMSO. The denial & ignorance of my youth and desire to build multi time prevented me from intelligently considering single engine service altitudes.
Flying Keys
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I don’t know if you can boil it down to a golden bullet, depends on several PAVE-oriented variables, especially weather (enVironment).
All weather considered “good” and equal, for me, it’s following I-90 from Billings to Missoula, then follow US93 north from there. This offers more wide valleys, lower passes, reasonably suitable diversion airports every 10-20 miles, and it’s well traveled enough that putting it down in a field or on the highway itself doesn’t all but guarantee exposure and hypothermia if you survive the accident itself. Most of all, no box canyons or vertical slopes of cumulogranite to overcome.
But this is for a specific departure (Billings) and destination (Polson) - it won’t work the same for Helena or Great Falls to Polson, for example.
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The safest route to follow mostly looks like flying a different day and/or a different airplane.
Even a really good pilot in a really good plane will have a really rough day if he attempts this trip in windy/turbulent or cloudy/icing conditions and things don't go really well. A non-turbo Aztec apparently has a 5,000-foot single-engine service ceiling. The MEAs along the GPS airway route I looked at put you at 12,000 westbound and 13,000 eastbound, with the actual rocks being up to almost 9,000 feet below you whether you go direct or along those airways. That means that you have as little as 2,000 feet of reasonable altitude window (13,000-15,000, above which I don't think anyone likes to fly without a turbo) to evade icing when the engines are purring or as much as 4,000 feet of rocks above your single-engine ceiling when one of the engines decides to growl instead.
VFR, I think I like the highway route that @Flying Keys posted about. You can also go VFR at 12,500 and turn back if the wind or clouds get in the way, as long as you are okay with the risk of an engine failure over hostile terrain.
Ralph Parmenter Bennett
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For what its worth, my best advice (for western Montana only) would be to follow the highway corridors adjacent to airways. For example, Interstate I- 90 crosses Montana via Billings, Butte etc, to Missoula, which provides a number of airports enroute (some with rather short runways) along valleys with lower peaks. To continue to Oregon, Washington state after Missoula, the I-90 corridor across Mullan Pass to clear the Rocky Mountains. (Mullan Pass has its own AWOS) Images available on AIRNAV will provide peaks, airways and MEA's and route choices. Weather services are generally very good, and the scenery is majestic. But caution the Rockies can create their own surprise unforecast weather. Take or rent oxygen devices if conditions dictate. To avoid the usual bumps, leave early and ask the locals for advice Crossing the Rockies is an accomplishment in a GA aircraft. Better than from a window seat in a really big airplane
Ed Haywood
Final Approach
Highest pass on I-90 is 6,329 feet. Just eyeballing the map, seems like a no brainer to follow I-90 from Billings to Missoula, then due north to Poulson. There are a few rough spots, but most of the route is over river bottom. I don't see anything within 5 miles of I-90 greater than 7500 feet, and most of the surrounding hills are 5000-6000 feet. There are several substantial airports along the way for stops if unexpected weather shows up or mechanical issues arise. On a nice day, that would be a reasonable trip in a typical GA spam can.
GaryM
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On that particular travel day, safe navigation would have required using your car GPS to take you to the nearest airport with passenger service, then walk, following the signs to a ticket counter for an airline serving your destination.
BrownieFlys
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Being from Alabama, and also a father with 2 daughters (11,16)
This gives me great reservations as a student pilot to further my training. The above comments are somewhat reassuring to some degree, but I’ll probably will never be as experienced as this guy.
I am sure that he didn’t go out thinking he was about to kill his family.
This definitely has given me something to think about.
This gives me great reservations as a student pilot to further my training. The above comments are somewhat reassuring to some degree, but I’ll probably will never be as experienced as this guy.
I am sure that he didn’t go out thinking he was about to kill his family.
This definitely has given me something to think about.
Most folks don’t wake up and say today’s the day I’m going to get a DUI, either. If you keep in mind every takeoff is optional but every landing is mandatory and the fact that ADM starts before the engine does, that can do a lot for you.
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Ralph Parmenter Bennett
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Brownie,
For me, the grandeur and beauty of our Rocky Mountains is magnificent, yet with that comes a humbling awareness of their power to quickly overwhelm our best laid plans for flight. It has always been a privilege to fly among those peaks, but always with a healthy sense of apprehensive respect.
Flying among the soft breezes of your Alabama, with the guidance of good flight instruction and a strong sense of personal minimums you can share many happy and safe hours aloft with family and friends. If you leave now it may one of your greatest regrets in your olden days to come. Many are called; few are chosen. Don't quit.
Now when I return home from Montana this time, I will drive on a very narrow dirt roads with heavy machines passing me at high speeds a few feet from my chosen path, often with lousy situational awareness. Now that scares the s--- out of me.
For me, the grandeur and beauty of our Rocky Mountains is magnificent, yet with that comes a humbling awareness of their power to quickly overwhelm our best laid plans for flight. It has always been a privilege to fly among those peaks, but always with a healthy sense of apprehensive respect.
Flying among the soft breezes of your Alabama, with the guidance of good flight instruction and a strong sense of personal minimums you can share many happy and safe hours aloft with family and friends. If you leave now it may one of your greatest regrets in your olden days to come. Many are called; few are chosen. Don't quit.
Now when I return home from Montana this time, I will drive on a very narrow dirt roads with heavy machines passing me at high speeds a few feet from my chosen path, often with lousy situational awareness. Now that scares the s--- out of me.
bbchien
Touchdown! Greaser!
For me to do that trip I have to be able to do so in VMC (Above the tops on a single blower). Or RON on Great Falls.
Why? Once you are in the clouds/ice you cannot see the rotor. It's STILL THERE (esp on a windy day such as this accident).
Experienced, yes.....but they were not thinking like ATPs.
Why? Once you are in the clouds/ice you cannot see the rotor. It's STILL THERE (esp on a windy day such as this accident).
Experienced, yes.....but they were not thinking like ATPs.
3393RP
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My youthful flying experiences consisted of a few years beneath 50 lbs of aluminum and Dacron among the peaks of Northern New Mexico and Southern Colorado. Hang gliding provided an excellent education in micro meteorology, the unpredictability of mountain ridgelines, and the absolute importance of good decision making.
Those learning experiences laid a foundation that has served me well. The Rockies require planning, recognition of personal limitations, and the ability to cancel a flight without hesitation when conditions exceed those limits. Later years revealed those considerations are also applicable to aviation at all levels.
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flyingcheesehead
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Keep training, keep learning, keep flying.
This guy put himself and his family in a really bad spot.
First: Big mountains. Nothing wrong with that, if the conditions are right. I've crossed through that area myself several times, but never in conditions anything like that.
Second: Weather. Icing. And even though he was equipped for it, icing in the mountains can be severe and like *any* flight where you might encounter icing, you need to have outs and you need to be willing to execute them. Having tall rocks under you takes away the easiest out (descending into warmer air). It sounds like the freezing levels were far lower than any safe flying altitude. We're already in no-go-land, but we're nowhere near done listing all the things that they were dealing with.
Third: Weather again - Winds. With winds like that in the mountains, you just don't fly that day. It must have been one hell of a rough ride, probably bouncing heads off the top of the plane frequently.
Fourth: Fatigue. They'd been flying all day, and were likely at the stage where all they could think about was getting to their destination to be able to rest. Finding an alternate to divert to, and then finding a place to stay and rest there sounds like a lot more work, but it beats the hell out of dying. The fatigue likely contributed to their poor decisionmaking.
Fifth: Engine failure. This may have had something to do with the icing, or inexperience with higher-altitude flying (mixture way too rich?), or it could have just been simple bad luck. But, light twins on a single engine climb very poorly in the best of circumstances. This plane was going to go down even without the wind and its associated updrafts and downdrafts, and even without the icing.
There were just far too many things going wrong on this flight for them to succeed in landing safely - But they could have changed the outcome.
So how do you keep yourself safe? Make a plan, and DO NOT stick to it. Make plans B, C, and D, and be ready to throw those out at a moment's notice as well. If you are the type of person who has to stick to Plan A, aviation is not for you.
In your planning, consider what challenges you might be presented with (terrain, weather, fatigue, emergencies) and how you'll deal with them at various points along your flight. Make a list of "no go items" during your planning and STICK TO THEM. In this case, if the pilot had followed the conventional wisdom of not flying in the mountains with winds aloft >25 knots, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Also, consider what risks you might face, and how you can mitigate them. There have been some good suggestions already in this thread - Follow a route with lower terrain, more airports, calmer weather, etc... But the key, above all, is to continue this process throughout your flight, listen to your inner voice, and be VERY willing to cut your losses, land, and live to fly another day.
Randomskylane
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Flip side-
My dad worked all the time, so my memories of him are primarily of various flying trips from 50 years ago.
You have actual airline pilots who make a strange decision one day in their GA toy and end up in a similar situation.
Just don’t be the bold pilot. It shouldn’t be more risky then a motorcycle habit if you take care.
ateamer
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ATP doesn’t necessarily mean experienced. Look how many ATPs out there got to 1500 by flying between the same five or six fields in VMC.
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Great advice. Should go all the way back to the earliest days of solo VFR flying.
Encountering any situation where something unexpected is happening out front that could or would cause a possible change of plans needs to be seriously considered. By the time your mouth has become so dry you couldn’t muster a spit for $100, you’ve gone way too far.
Flying Keys
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Again, how many pilots actually know how to interpret a weather forecast hours ahead of their arrival? How many people understand how current observations evolve, especially as it applies to areas outside their bubble? Someone familiar with flying on the west coast may not be familiar with diurnal airmass thunderstorms common to the southeast US, and vice versa in regard to coastal marine layers. By the time you get into this stuff and realize you should have turned around (or never taken off), it’s often too late.
Weather that was not there at takeoff was suddenly there, meeting the planned route in the worst possible place. Is there an opportunity to increase that awareness during flight training or should it remain kind of an “if you ever… then consult someone who knows,” mountain checkouts (which are entirely optional), etc.
Weather that was not there at takeoff was suddenly there, meeting the planned route in the worst possible place. Is there an opportunity to increase that awareness during flight training or should it remain kind of an “if you ever… then consult someone who knows,” mountain checkouts (which are entirely optional), etc.
Wagondriver
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I live and fly in the mountains, there are some days you don't fly. Period.
The day of that wreck, I doubt anyone else was out there in it, at least not in equipment like that. Even if they had been in a wiz bang awesome turbine that can go high and deal with ice, they shouldn't have been there.
The day of that wreck, I doubt anyone else was out there in it, at least not in equipment like that. Even if they had been in a wiz bang awesome turbine that can go high and deal with ice, they shouldn't have been there.
Albany Tom
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This one is really sad. What I don't understand at all is that one of the daughters, according to the first posted news story, was a CFII. So there were two people in that plane that decided to fly that day with their sister/daughter. If one pilot out of two doesn't feel like it's good weather to fly in, don't fly. It's a simple rule for any pleasure flight.
3393RP
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This mishap is a good example of that. The pilot, who was a United Airlines first officer, continued flight east out of Telluride, even though it was obvious early in the flight his climb gradient was insufficient to clear the mountains ahead.
The crash killed him and his bride of four days. In the days before the crash, he had engaged professional photographers to take photos of him and his bride with the plane, dressed in their wedding attire. There was speculation he had arranged to have the photographers capture shots of the plane on the accident flight as it passed over Bridal Veil Falls
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Heartbreaking. There was an excellent YouTube video presentation on this crash. Can't remember if it was produced by the AOPA Safety Foundation, Hoover's Flight Debrief, Juan Browne, or one of the others. Excellent research and graphics... worth a watch.
bbchien
Touchdown! Greaser!
Bacho
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While I’m making some assumptions on her credentials, I’m not assuming that your average east coast puppy mill CFI has any relevant personal experience with the conditions in this flight.
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It strikes me that if the old saw about aviation being terribly unforgiving of incapacity, carelessness, or neglect is our baseline education, then flying in the mountains is the master's level (Alaska, I presume, earns you a doctorate).
I learned to fly at COS about 25 years ago and was quickly ingrained with a deep respect for mountain weather, density altitude, and aircraft performance. On my trip from California to Virginia, I elected to follow I-10 until I got past El Paso. I did my flight planning to be on the ground by 2pm, but the winds and turbulence were already starting to kick up around noon as I approached Tucson. After flying eastward at 9500, I subsequently got into mountain wave.
At Vy, I was in a 1500-2000fpm descent. At engine idle and nose down to the Va limit, I was climbing at similar rates on the updraft. It was my first time in true mountain wave and my lesson learned was to not fight it. That down-wave was going to let up before the ground and turn into an upwave. I was in clear VMC, with the world's longest runway underneath me, and plenty of clearance from terrain. Keep the wings level, nose roughly where you need it for course, and otherwise accept the altitude excursions. No way my little Cherokee 180 was going to outpower that airmass. It smoothed out eventually, but what a ride.
I'm not a great mountain pilot, but I know enough that I never want to be flying in the afternoons if I can help it, and sure as heck not if it's windy or anything less than great VMC!
I learned to fly at COS about 25 years ago and was quickly ingrained with a deep respect for mountain weather, density altitude, and aircraft performance. On my trip from California to Virginia, I elected to follow I-10 until I got past El Paso. I did my flight planning to be on the ground by 2pm, but the winds and turbulence were already starting to kick up around noon as I approached Tucson. After flying eastward at 9500, I subsequently got into mountain wave.
At Vy, I was in a 1500-2000fpm descent. At engine idle and nose down to the Va limit, I was climbing at similar rates on the updraft. It was my first time in true mountain wave and my lesson learned was to not fight it. That down-wave was going to let up before the ground and turn into an upwave. I was in clear VMC, with the world's longest runway underneath me, and plenty of clearance from terrain. Keep the wings level, nose roughly where you need it for course, and otherwise accept the altitude excursions. No way my little Cherokee 180 was going to outpower that airmass. It smoothed out eventually, but what a ride.
I'm not a great mountain pilot, but I know enough that I never want to be flying in the afternoons if I can help it, and sure as heck not if it's windy or anything less than great VMC!
Albany Tom
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I'm glad you made it, and thanks for the description. A friend of mine, 20+ years ago flying a business jet on a relocation flight, did not. Really nice guy, not arrogant or type a in the least.
Ed Haywood
Final Approach
One thing about flying that affected me deeply very early on in my pilot journey was reading accident reports about fathers killing their families. Dad is living his dream, herds the trusting wife and kids into his new magic carpet, mistakes enthusiasm for capability, and it all ends in a terrible moment of realization.
I have a high tolerance for personal risk. Heck, just 30 minutes ago I flew in an aerobatic contest, which many pilots would consider an insane level of risk. But I am terrified of flying my family members, and will probably never do it again.
I have a high tolerance for personal risk. Heck, just 30 minutes ago I flew in an aerobatic contest, which many pilots would consider an insane level of risk. But I am terrified of flying my family members, and will probably never do it again.
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3393RP
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The absolute worst example of this was the 2019 crash of a PC-12 in a South Dakota snowstorm. It wiped out four generations of family members.
Albany Tom
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I share the same sadness of reading about pilots harming their families. It took me a long time to take up any friends with me, it took a little pushing from my CFI.
Ed, I've never seen you fly, but just from your attitude I'd be fine with any family member of mine flying with you.
That's the trouble with the risk around this...the pilots who are absolutely certain they're safe are probably the ones that really aren't at all.
In interviews I'll usually ask a question along the lines of "tell me about a mistake you've made", just because there are so many people in IT who are confident they're near perfect, and those people generally have the lowest skill set. But I don't know how to objectively measure dangerous overconfidence.
Zeldman
Touchdown! Greaser!
I delivered a C-182 from Ona, WV (12V) to Hilton Head, SC where I met the new owner, his wife and 2 kids. Dad was a student and his instructor advised dad to purchase a 182 to finish up PP training.
Really nice family, they met me at the airport, I showed him the nice equipment in the plane including the auto pilot. They took me to lunch while I waited for my ride back to WV. They were really excited to have the plane and said it was to be used for business and family travel.
A little less than a year later I came across this, at least he did not take out the family: https://planecrashmap.com/plane/sc/N6522M/#:~:text=Instrument meteorological conditions prevailed at the time of,sustained fatal injuries and the airplane was destroyed.
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Another recent PC-12 crash affecting families: http://www.kathrynsreport.com/2023/01/pilatus-pc-1247e-n79nx-fatal-accident.htmlThe absolute worst example of this was the 2019 crash of a PC-12 in a South Dakota snowstorm. It wiped out four generations of family members.
Ed Haywood
Final Approach
Yet another PC-12 family extinction event from Florida in 2012. This one sticks in my mind because it happened nearby, and it was particularly horrific. The aircraft broke apart at 15K and spun all the way to the ground, with one of the children sucked out of the aircraft. The pilot had 38 hours in type.
NTSB: Inexperience a factor in 2012 crash
Unfamiliarity with a newly purchased turboprop proved fatal for a Kansas family returning from a Bahamas vacation in 2012, the NTSB determined.
share.google
Rockymountain
Line Up and Wait
Any death in an airplane is a tragedy. But seems to me that the responsibility on the pilot increases with number of seats filled. The PC12 is a unique plane in that on the surface it is as easy to fly as a complex piston aircraft, especially in good weather, and only legally requires a PPL SEL. But you can load up generations of family members in it. Several high profile disasters in that aircraft. Was it 14 fatalities in the Butte MT crash?
Flying Keys
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Yes, 14 fatalities in the Butte PC-12 crash.
There was also that PC-12 crash almost two years ago near San Angelo. That was the one that did a tight turn after being vectored through final in IMC. 2 human fatal plus several animals onboard.
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"For particularly bad weather or long days, it might be worth having a second pilot in the right seat".
"The PC-12 has a sophisticated autopilot, but like all avionics it can fail. That’s especially true for less experienced pilots, and these accidents prove once again that the key number to track is time in type. No matter how many total hours you have logged, airplanes like the Pilatus have a learning curve that can only be surmounted with relevant experience—ideally in the same model with the same avionics".
https://airfactsjournal.com/2022/03/whats-wrong-with-pilatus-pc-12-pilots/
"The PC-12 has a sophisticated autopilot, but like all avionics it can fail. That’s especially true for less experienced pilots, and these accidents prove once again that the key number to track is time in type. No matter how many total hours you have logged, airplanes like the Pilatus have a learning curve that can only be surmounted with relevant experience—ideally in the same model with the same avionics".
https://airfactsjournal.com/2022/03/whats-wrong-with-pilatus-pc-12-pilots/
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Yes, sticks in my mind too. Terrible. I believe the boy was probably not sucked out, but thrown clear by centrifugal forces during the break up.
Pilot LOC is what I consider to be a preventable (in most instances) and proven to be a significant pilot related cause of fatal accidents.
This family's tragedy (IMO) seems to be yet another example of a pilot distracted by screwing around with the autopilot at a time that demanded an instant reversion to hand-flying, while simultaneously focusing FULL attention to the flight instruments. Keeping wings level and the pitch attitude in an appropriate position while IMC is not that tough. But it can be when not practiced and a pilot prioritizes then expects the autopilot to save his bacon.
For the life of me (no pun intended) I don't understand how pilots can get so dependent (and distracted) when the autopilot is clearly not behaving and functioning like it supposed to. Disconnect, then eyes straight to the attitude indicator. The flight instruments need to be believed, and hand-flying skills well practiced... lives depend upon it.
bbchien
Touchdown! Greaser!
RE the Montana Aztec:
If you are in an (ice) cloud, how are you going to see these? (and it was really blowing that late day)
B
If you are in an (ice) cloud, how are you going to see these? (and it was really blowing that late day)
B
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Obviously you’re not going to see them. Lenticulars are indicative of the turbulence associated with a standing wave, whether imbedded inside cloud, or in clear air.
Inadvertently blundering into a rotor can be fatal. I wouldn’t be surprised if the cause of this Aztec crash turns out to be turbulence related (as in something broke), and not ice or mechanical. It seemed to come down in a hurry.