Autonomous car is here today

[genna]

Well, not just yet, but it's getting closer. Some day it will happen.

So, Imagine that day is today. Level 5(set destination and let it drive you) autonomous car is here now.

What do you think the GA, Commercial aviation and Auto Industry looks like tomorrow, 5 years from today, and 10 years from today?

Edit: To clarify my question: Will these industries survive? What will they look like? Will anyone buy a 1mil SR22 if they can get a car that will drive them to destination while they take a nap? That kind of thing

 

[mscard88]

What do you think the GA, Commercial aviation and Auto Industry looks like tomorrow, 5 years from today, and 10 years from today?

The same as it is now per 5 and 10 years from now.

 

[upstateny]

Given the age of the fleet and the cost of "set it and forget it" technology that will get the plane from A to B on its own, I think it will look much the same. There will be some incremental changes that exist in a few planes today, that will probably become commonplace (eg HUD, MFD, etc.) Face it, if people are balking at installing ADS-B, are they really going to upgrade or buy a new plane with the latest bells and whistles?

 

[Acrodustertoo]

The useful load will be about 13 lbs after they install all this automation in ga planes. So in five or fifty years a piper cub will still be a piper cub. I will predict that in ten years there will be zero 1,2,3,4th generation cirrus flying. That is well beyond their capability to land that many times

 

[genna]

Given the age of the fleet and the cost of "set it and forget it" technology that will get the plane from A to B on its own, I think it will look much the same. There will be some incremental changes that exist in a few planes today, that will probably become commonplace (eg HUD, MFD, etc.) Face it, if people are balking at installing ADS-B, are they really going to upgrade or buy a new plane with the latest bells and whistles?

I was really posing the question from a different point of view. How will these industries survive?

 

[sferguson524]

The company I am working for is getting really close to autonomy in cars. We can pull up to a curb, have the driver exit and the car will find itself a parking spot and self park. www.ff.com

 

[Palmpilot]

The company I am working for is getting really close to autonomy in cars. We can pull up to a curb, have the driver exit and the car will find itself a parking spot and self park. www.ff.com

I'd like to see how that works on some of the Forest Service roads I've been on!

 

[falconkidding]

The company I am working for is getting really close to autonomy in cars. We can pull up to a curb, have the driver exit and the car will find itself a parking spot and self park. www.ff.com

How is FF doing at least from your POV? Most of the tech sites seem pretty down on them with their payment issues and massive leadership turnover.

 

[sferguson524]

really well. cant give specifics, but we have a significant number of pre-orders for the ff91

 

[bnt83]

Personally I can't wait till its mainstream. If completely autonomous then a person should not be able to get a DUI.

Not only that but elderly or disabled who can't hold a drivers license should still be able to get around.

 

[SkyDog58]

Personally I can't wait till its mainstream. If completely autonomous then a person should not be able to get a DUI.

Not only that but elderly or disabled who can't hold a drivers license should still be able to get around.

Yeah, I guess buses, trains, taxis, Uber, etc. just don't work.

 

[iflyvfr]

The thrill of flying with the wide open views and the freedom to come and go greater distances without sitting in traffic will outweigh taking a nap IMO. Sitting in traffic for hours to get to a prized destination would still be a chore compared to landing at the closest GA airport on pretty much a schedule you set and having a rental waiting for you. Why would you drive/ride if you can fly? Hope that doesn't change.

 

[3393RP]

I've seen a couple of predictions that the over the road trucking industry will be mostly autonomous in ten years. That's just silly. There's no way a computer can handle the variables that a truck driver encounters every day, like narrow roads and truck docks that are difficult to access.

Not to mention that the public isn't likely to approve of 80,000 lb trucks rolling at 65 MPH with no driver.

 

[bnt83]

Yeah, I guess buses, trains, taxis, Uber, etc. just don't work.

I've seen a couple of predictions that the over the road trucking industry will be mostly autonomous in ten years. That's just silly. There's no way a computer can handle the variables that a truck driver encounters every day, like narrow roads and truck docks that are difficult to access.

Not to mention that the public isn't likely to approve of 80,000 lb trucks rolling at 65 MPH with no driver.

I'm thinking more along the lines of my grandparents and future folks in that age, they live in a cheap to live small town, no taxi service, no uber, no bus, autonomous cars could change a lot of lives. Even blind people could get around.

 

[JOhnH]

I've seen a couple of predictions that the over the road trucking industry will be mostly autonomous in ten years. That's just silly. There's no way a computer can handle the variables that a truck driver encounters every day, like narrow roads and truck docks that are difficult to access.

Not to mention that the public isn't likely to approve of 80,000 lb trucks rolling at 65 MPH with no driver.

I'd prefer sharing the road with an autonomous tractor than with a buzzed up driver that hasn't stopped to pee for 7 or 8 hours.
I drove a long haul tractor trailer in the '70s and I was amazed at the condition of many of the drivers that came stumbling into the truck stops.

 

[JOhnH]

I've seen a couple of predictions that the over the road trucking industry will be mostly autonomous in ten years. That's just silly. There's no way a computer can handle the variables that a truck driver encounters every day, like narrow roads and truck docks that are difficult to access.

Not to mention that the public isn't likely to approve of 80,000 lb trucks rolling at 65 MPH with no driver.

The narrow roads can be handled. The difficult truck docks can be handled by the road tractor dropping the trailer and having a local mule maneuver the trailer into position.

 

[GlennAB1]

The company I am working for is getting really close to autonomy in cars. We can pull up to a curb, have the driver exit and the car will find itself a parking spot and self park. www.ff.com

Oh yeah, it's parked somewhere here, downtown.

 

[NoHeat]

Driverless mining trucks and farming tractors are already here.

Right now, the most common occupation in most states is truck driver. I predict that technology will shrink that profession just as it did the profession of secretaries, which was extremely common in the 70s but not so much now.

 

[Sundancer]

Things change much, much slower than is advertised, at least to my mind. Most of the stuff that looks "new" has been around multiple decades. Coupled approaches, with "auto-land" for half a century, Internet for 40 years, more or less, cell phones about as long. Nice new stuff that uses applied science, of course, like Blue Tooth, and higher speed networking, making some things more practical. Cloud computing? just virtualization with a cool name and more sophisticated management - IBM did it in the 60's. . .

I could see self-driving on major highways out 20 years or so, but likely with "aids" built into the highway itself, perhaps. Heck, why drive on the surface - Jetson flying cars are don't require any new tech - just a way to organize the traffic without hitting utility poles, killing the pax or people on the ground, otherwise, nothing new required. . .

 

[sferguson524]

Oh yeah, it's parked somewhere here, downtown.

even better, it will come to you when you call it from the app on your smart phone

 

[Palmpilot]

even better, it will come to you when you call it from the app on your smart phone

Unless a hacker stole your car!

 

[deonb]

really well. cant give specifics, but we have a significant number of pre-orders for the ff91

Aren't those mostly no money down, no obligation orders?

 

[sferguson524]

Aren't those mostly no money down, no obligation orders?

No, they had to put up 5K to reserve a car.

 

[deonb]

No, they had to put up 5K to reserve a car.

I was able to make a standard reservation without any money down. Or do you mean you have a significant amount of Priority reservations?

 

[wayne]

You won't own a car. You'll pay for a driving service. Driving long distance will be expensive, so you'll have to fly. It will have to be on a commercial service unless you are wealthy enough afford a new plane with autonomous systems. That's because hand-flown planes will be banned, just like cars driven by people. It's just too dangerous to let people drive cars, or fly planes.

Google, Tesla, and whomever is making the cars and the systems will know where you go and when. The government will have full access to that data.

That's the future.

These are the "good old days".

 

[genna]

^ I'm with wayne here

My theory is this:
Auto: Soon after introduction, the technology will quickly prove to be much safer than letting people drive their own cars. Such "old" cars will quickly be phased out and likely outlawed soon after. Of course, the legal liability will also shift to manufacturers and with a few accidents along the way(and hefty setlements), the costs of these cars will skyrocket. Similar to GA in the 70s. Couple with the fact that it will hardly matter what you drive at that point as long as it is comfortable, inexpensive(relatively) and reliable, I suspect many automakers will fail. Basically, they are digging their own graves now. Likely the sharing of cars will become a norm. Still, it will be more affordable than GA or Commercial travel.

Piston GA: Dead as a form of transportation. Sure, some people will hold on to their planes, but for most it will make no sense from cost, hassle, and even time points of view. Only the non-transportation and schools will survive. Likely very very few new piston planes will sold.
Business/Jet GA: probably not much change here

Commercial Aviation: Severely declined. Most people already drive for 5-8 hours rather than take a commercial plane. This will be extended. Easier to be driven overnight while resting than go through the expense and hassle of flying. Most short to medium routes will suffer.

Trains and buses may make a comeback though

 

[MAKG1]

^ I'm with wayne here

My theory is this:
Auto: Soon after introduction, the technology will quickly prove to be much safer than letting people drive their own cars. Such "old" cars will quickly be phased out and likely outlawed soon after. Of course, the legal liability will also shift to manufacturers and with a few accidents along the way(and hefty setlements), the costs of these cars will skyrocket. Similar to GA in the 70s. Couple with the fact that it will hardly matter what you drive at that point as long as it is comfortable, inexpensive(relatively) and reliable, I suspect many automakers will fail. Basically, they are digging their own graves now. Likely the sharing of cars will become a norm. Still, it will be more affordable than GA or Commercial travel.

Piston GA: Dead as a form of transportation. Sure, some people will hold on to their planes, but for most it will make no sense from cost, hassle, and even time points of view. Only the non-transportation and schools will survive. Likely very very few new piston planes will sold.
Business/Jet GA: probably not much change here

Commercial Aviation: Severely declined. Most people already drive for 5-8 hours rather than take a commercial plane. This will be extended. Easier to be driven overnight while resting than go through the expense and hassle of flying. Most short to medium routes will suffer.

Trains and buses may make a comeback though

What's really going to happen is that a large number of autonomous vehicles will make traffic grind to a standstill almost everywhere. If the liability issue doesn't kill it first.

If people don't own cars, they will be walking short distances. And every pedestrian is an impediment to an autonomous vehicle if there is any possibility they might get hit. So, they drive really slow and stop all the time due to false alarms.

They aren't magic. And the hype is FAR out the window.

It really sucks driving down Shoreline Blvd these days due to all the Google cars. They drive like little old ladies who only drive on Sundays.

 

[genna]

What's really going to happen is that a large number of autonomous vehicles will make traffic grind to a standstill almost everywhere. If the liability issue doesn't kill it first.

If people don't own cars, they will be walking short distances. And every pedestrian is an impediment to an autonomous vehicle if there is any possibility they might get hit. So, they drive really slow and stop all the time due to false alarms.

They aren't magic. And the hype is FAR out the window.

It really sucks driving down Shoreline Blvd these days due to all the Google cars. They drive like little old ladies who only drive on Sundays.

Google cars are test beds. What I'm talking about is sorted out production cars. While they may go slower(speed limits are likely to go up as well), they can maintain speed and distances regardless of destructions

It's many years away, but assume they are all they are cracked out to be.

 

[denverpilot]

I still want a self driving car to be used as my casket... just set it to go places I didn't get to see while alive, and let it cruise around...

 

[Acrodustertoo]

How are these cars going to make my drive from. Montana to Minnesota any better? How are they going to handle driving through a swarm of grasshoppers? What happens when a bird flies in front of it?
All I see with this ******** is creating one big giant conveyor belt for lazy self centered morons who cannot take their eyes out of their phone.

How hard is it to drive? How hard is it to park a ****ing car for ****s sake! All this ******** is going to do is make it illegal for me to drive my 1945 Willys Jeep! I have wanted nothing more in my life that to drive my jeep on March 7 2045, that will be her 100 th birthday! She helped the greatest generation win the war to end all wars so that they could stare at their ****ing phones all day and become so fat and lazy that they find the act of driving to be so strenuous that they want to join the conveyor belt if useless human beings. What the hell is wrong with people! I give up.

 

[denverpilot]

The best tech coming out of the self driving world is actually the safety tech going into traditionally driven cars.

I'd love to have one of the new adaptive cruise controls like the Subaru Eyesight for stop and go traffic. You set it, it follows. If traffic slows or stops, it slows or stops. When traffic starts moving again, you touch the gas pedal and it starts following again. If someone stupidly comes into the lane, it backs off and follows the.

That tech doesn't suck at all.

That it will also auto-brake before an unexpected collision is just icing on the cake. Apparently the dealers for the test drive tell folks "this is going to be weird, but just let the car roll and don't brake coming up to that car at the stop light"... and it does it. Big brass ones, or the things really do work well.

I know the Gen 1 of that system had some software issues, but they're up to Gen 3 now, and everything I've seen and heard says they've got that thing nailed, for the most part, in any reasonable conditions.

Other major systems that work really well that sorta relate to the self driving are the accelerometer based trailer sway and control systems. Some of those are very impressive nowadays.

I guess I'll get to enjoy them around 2027 when I buy another 10 year old truck. Haha. By then the self driving will be working.

 

[SoonerAviator]

How are these cars going to make my drive from. Montana to Minnesota any better? How are they going to handle driving through a swarm of grasshoppers? What happens when a bird flies in front of it?
All I see with this ******** is creating one big giant conveyor belt for lazy self centered morons who cannot take their eyes out of their phone.

How hard is it to drive? How hard is it to park a ****ing car for ****s sake! All this ******** is going to do is make it illegal for me to drive my 1945 Willys Jeep! I have wanted nothing more in my life that to drive my jeep on March 7 2045, that will be her 100 th birthday! She helped the greatest generation win the war to end all wars so that they could stare at their ****ing phones all day and become so fat and lazy that they find the act of driving to be so strenuous that they want to join the conveyor belt if useless human beings. What the hell is wrong with people! I give up.

It's probably less about "being lazy", and more about doing something else with your time. If you can sit there and read a book, answer emails, or a dozen other more productive things instead of doing mundane driving tasks, why wouldn't you? Sure, there's the sheer joy of driving, but I can think of several drives, both short and long, that aren't exiting in the least, where I'd just assume hand the controls over to Otto.

I assume you don't ever fly an aircraft with an A/P, because it's exactly the same thing.


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[Morgan3820]

The company I am working for is getting really close to autonomy in cars. We can pull up to a curb, have the driver exit and the car will find itself a parking spot and self park. www.ff.com

I do not see this as a good thing for me. So at what point am I banned from driving my car? "Sorry , only autonomous vehicles allowed on interstates." I like to drive. You are working to take another of the few joys left to me away. I look forward to the bankrupting lawsuits.. A whole new field of litigation, sweet.

 

[Morgan3820]

It's probably less about "being lazy", and more about doing something else with your time. If you can sit there and read a book, answer emails, or a dozen other more productive things instead of doing mundane driving tasks, why wouldn't you? Sure, there's the sheer joy of driving, but I can think of several drives, both short and long, that aren't exiting in the least, where I'd just assume hand the controls over to Otto.

I assume you don't ever fly an aircraft with an A/P, because it's exactly the same thing.


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No, it is not. Will the A/P taxi the aircraft? Park it? Can I fly drunk if I have an A/P?

The problem is eventually driving will be banned. Your masters will control the vehicle for you. We will all sell our soul for convenience, literally.

 

[wayne]

I do not see this as a good thing for me. So at what point am I banned from driving my car? "Sorry , only autonomous vehicles allowed on interstates." I like to drive. You are working to take another of the few joys left to me away. I look forward to the bankrupting lawsuits.. A whole new field of litigation, sweet.

Or ridiculed, "You drove your car? What, were you thinking?!"

Or get ticketed/fined for parallel parking your car, even without hitting anything. "You could have hit my car!" Or for scaring the pedestrians on the sidewalk when they realized you were parallel parking manually. Oh the humanity! Or maybe sued for injuries as a pedestrian "ran for their life" as you drove/parallel parked manually and they fell and got hurt. Obviously it was your fault.

 

[wayne]

I do not see this as a good thing for me. So at what point am I banned from driving my car? "Sorry , only autonomous vehicles allowed on interstates." I like to drive. You are working to take another of the few joys left to me away. I look forward to the bankrupting lawsuits.. A whole new field of litigation, sweet.

Me too. Heck, I drive a stick shift. In car shopping a manual transmission is one of my requirements. It's getting harder to find cars other than low-end econo boxes with a stick.

I live in Atlanta and some co-workers say they wouldn't mind driving a manual, but not in Atlanta traffic. I like a manual in traffic more than an automatic. I see a hole in the lane next to me and it's easy to punch it and get in there. In a automatic there's a nasty lag. I can let off the gas and the car slows. Or down shift and it slows more. All the while the engine is still running, so it's just more pressure on the accelerator and back to normal. With an auto you hit the brake, the engine slows and pressure on the accelerator has to bring the engine speed back up, and possibly shift. Ugh.

We were in Spain a couple of years ago and every vehicle we were in, up to mini-vans and shuttles had a manual transmission. Every. One. Of. Them.

 

[Morgan3820]

Me too. Heck, I drive a stick shift. In car shopping a manual transmission is one of my requirements. It's getting harder to find cars other than low-end econo boxes with a stick.

I live in Atlanta and some co-workers say they wouldn't mind driving a manual, but not in Atlanta traffic. I like a manual in traffic more than an automatic. I see a hole in the lane next to me and it's easy to punch it and get in there. In a automatic there's a nasty lag. I can let off the gas and the car slows. Or down shift and it slows more. All the while the engine is still running, so it's just more pressure on the accelerator and back to normal. With an auto you hit the brake, the engine slows and pressure on the accelerator has to bring the engine speed back up, and possibly shift. Ugh.

We were in Spain a couple of years ago and every vehicle we were in, up to mini-vans and shuttles had a manual transmission. Every. One. Of. Them.

Me too. I always smile at the looks on their face when I tell the car salesmen that I never learned to drive an automatic transmission.

 

[SoonerAviator]

No, it is not. Will the A/P taxi the aircraft? Park it? Can I fly drunk if I have an A/P?

The problem is eventually driving will be banned. Your masters will control the vehicle for you. We will all sell our soul for convenience, literally.

The A/P won't taxi/park the aircraft because it ashy designed to do so. I'm sure if there was significant demand for that functionality, it could be incorporated, as it's just another portion of an approach leg, it just uses a different power setting and control deflections.

You can certainly fly drunk if you have an A/P, there's no one stopping you unless you get caught. The same goes for driving in an autonomous car, the laws in every state prohibit alcohol consumption by any of the occupants. People still drive drunk, but that isn't related to having (or lack of) autopilot in their cars.

While I appreciate the doom and gloom outlook on your driving privileges, I doubt it gets to that point in our lifetimes, simply because that would require all drivers to abandon non-autonomous vehicles, which would start a riot with muscle car/classic car owners alone, much less the affordability aspect of it.


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[cgrab]

I think it will enhance GA. I'd love to be able to land in a new town and just hop in a car and have it take me where I need to go. Uber is close but I have to wait for the driver and crew cars have to be returned so I can't spend the night.
When you realize that you have a car you pay for 24 hours a day but use only two to three hours a day, all of a sudden hailing a surface drone is a good idea.

 

[deonb]

It's probably less about "being lazy", and more about doing something else with your time. If you can sit there and read a book, answer emails, or a dozen other more productive things instead of doing mundane driving tasks, why wouldn't you? Sure, there's the sheer joy of driving, but I can think of several drives, both short and long, that aren't exiting in the least, where I'd just assume hand the controls over to Otto.

So here's the question - when you're on a long road trip today, would you rather be the passenger or the driver?

I'd rather be the driver.

I'd give that up if it comes with other benefits - e.g. if an autonomous car is allowed to drive at 100mph for example. But for a 1-to-1 exchange in experience, ehh.