American teenage pilot meets with consequences of own actions

midwestpa24 said:
3 hours survival, assuming anyone comes looking for you or can find you AND can get a helicopter or ship to your location in that time period. No thanks. We were literally just having this conversation in our office the other day, about guys that ferry single engine aircraft across the oceans. The person I was talking to knew a guy that used to do it, died crossing the Atlantic. Based on what they knew of his accident, perhaps what he radioed or was witnessed, when the engine quit he intentionally put the plane straight down into the ocean. He had pre-decided he was not going to die drowning or freezing to death.
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Interesting - at my instrument oral (with Jason Blair) we discussed flying over Lake Michigan (the XC I had to plan could theoretically have gone over the southern part of the lake). He made the comment that with a single engine plane and a failure out over the lake, he would dive straight down, since any rescue would take several hours at least, and that one could not survive in Lake Michigan that long (maybe except in late summer?) [This probably assumed that one didn't have a life raft].
 
40YearDream said:
Interesting - at my instrument oral (with Jason Blair) we discussed flying over Lake Michigan (the XC I had to plan could theoretically have gone over the southern part of the lake). He made the comment that with a single engine plane and a failure out over the lake, he would dive straight down, since any rescue would take several hours at least, and that one could not survive in Lake Michigan that long (maybe except in late summer?) [This probably assumed that one didn't have a life raft].
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I spent a lot of my childhood on a boat in lake michigan, where we'd take it out pretty far then dive off the side and swim for hours. You don't really have to wait for late summer for the water to be survivable for a while. But that helps. Also helps the further south and shallower you are.
Also, I've seen some of those badass coast guard boats rip out of the piers to go rescue people. I'd bet they can get pretty far, pretty quick. Nosediving into the water seems... unnecessary.

Though I could understand why one might do that in the drake passage.
 
40YearDream said:
Interesting - at my instrument oral (with Jason Blair) we discussed flying over Lake Michigan (the XC I had to plan could theoretically have gone over the southern part of the lake). He made the comment that with a single engine plane and a failure out over the lake, he would dive straight down, since any rescue would take several hours at least, and that one could not survive in Lake Michigan that long (maybe except in late summer?) [This probably assumed that one didn't have a life raft].
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As opposed to say, looking for a boat and ditching near it?
 
Ed Haywood said:
I was going to say idiotic. But you're nicer than me.
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Note, I didn't say Lake Michigan. The story relayed to me was in the middle of the Northern Atlantic. The odds of even being found are probably pretty slim.
 
40YearDream said:
Interesting - at my instrument oral (with Jason Blair) we discussed flying over Lake Michigan (the XC I had to plan could theoretically have gone over the southern part of the lake). He made the comment that with a single engine plane and a failure out over the lake, he would dive straight down, since any rescue would take several hours at least, and that one could not survive in Lake Michigan that long (maybe except in late summer?) [This probably assumed that one didn't have a life raft].
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My ex-BIL's father went down in a helo in Lake Michigan somewhere around 35 years ago in 1983 I ran into him last fall. Still alive.

Jason probably has scuba gear in his plane, and would nose it in so he could log some dive time. I know he's had a couple engine outs, landed one of em on I-96.
 
EdFred said:
I didn't realize I was so young. My last 3 trips have crossed Lake Michigan - twice each time!
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Having moved from Michigan to Minnesota and back to Michigan and then Wisconsin, I looked it up - I have crossed Lake Michigan more than 240 times.
 
Ed Haywood said:
As opposed to say, looking for a boat and ditching near it?
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Most boats don't go all that far out into Lake Michigan, aside from the few making a crossing. The ships, lake freighters, take many miles to slow down and stop, so ditching nearby is unlikely to be helpful.
 
Ed Haywood said:
These are pretty fast too:

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I once asked a Coast Guard pilot how long it would take to get to me if I went down in the middle of Lake Michigan. He said it takes about 20 minutes before they can take off from Traverse City, then another 20-40 minutes to get to the area where I went down, and then (the kicker) he said it was doubtful they could find me, even in a raft, unless I had a radio or signaling device, because the lake is so vast and I would be such a small thing to spot.
 
172andyou said:
Remember, I have a raft also. I can survive essentially indefinitely so long as I can get in the raft within three hours.
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You may not be able to get into the raft. In 2001, I flew the Cayman Caravan from Key West to Grand Cayman. As part of the survival briefing, the organizers inflated a raft in the motel pool in Key West. More than half of the people could not climb into the raft, and this was in a pool with no waves or swells. They just weren't strong enough.

Maybe adrenalin would make the difference.

I did USAF Sea Survival School in Biscayne Bay, and was able to get into a one-man raft after parasailing out over the water. But I was in my early 20s and a lot stronger back then.
 
Gilbert Buettner said:
You may not be able to get into the raft. In 2001, I flew the Cayman Caravan from Key West to Grand Cayman. As part of the survival briefing, the organizers inflated a raft in the motel pool in Key West. More than half of the people could not climb into the raft, and this was in a pool with no waves or swells. They just weren't strong enough.

Maybe adrenalin would make the difference.

I did USAF Sea Survival School in Biscayne Bay, and was able to get into a one-man raft after parasailing out over the water. But I was in my early 20s and a lot stronger back then.
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A lot will depend on how well the ditching goes, something that is largely out of your control. Did the airplane float long enough for you to escape with your raft? Were you injured in any fashion that would slow or prevent you from entering the raft? Concussion, dislocated shoulder, broken bone, etc., are all going to make that difficult task near impossible. I have no delusions about my chances of survival from a ditching.

- A trained water and ice rescuer
 
Injuries: no argument.

Raft: Do small rafts not have ladders as standard equipment? Or is it hard to get in even if you have one?
 
Gilbert Buettner said:
You may not be able to get into the raft. In 2001, I flew the Cayman Caravan from Key West to Grand Cayman. As part of the survival briefing, the organizers inflated a raft in the motel pool in Key West. More than half of the people could not climb into the raft, and this was in a pool with no waves or swells. They just weren't strong enough.
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I’m guessing the reason the organizers included that in the briefing is because they knew many people wouldn’t be able to climb in. Full disclosure, and all that.
 
Gilbert Buettner said:
I once asked a Coast Guard pilot how long it would take to get to me if I went down in the middle of Lake Michigan. He said it takes about 20 minutes before they can take off from Traverse City, then another 20-40 minutes to get to the area where I went down, and then (the kicker) he said it was doubtful they could find me, even in a raft, unless I had a radio or signaling device, because the lake is so vast and I would be such a small thing to spot.
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Any boat on Lake Michigan is required to carry a signaling device. Seems prudent to carry one if you make a habit of flying over as well.

When I went fishing in the Gulf of Mexico, I carried one of these:

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Acr Resqlink 400 PLB USA | Aircraft Spruce ®

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172andyou said:
Injuries: no argument.

Raft: Do small rafts not have ladders as standard equipment? Or is it hard to get in even if you have one?
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I think this was a six person raft, and it had a sort of extension down into the water that you were supposed to use as a ladder. But you still had to pull yourself out of the water, and it seemed most did not have enough upper body strength, even with a foot on the ladder. Of course, the raft tipped toward them, making it even harder.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Anyone on Lake Michigan in a boat is required to carry a signaling device. Seems prudent to carry one if you make a habit of flying over as well.
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Even small fishing boats? I've been out there many times on a 36' Egg Harbor and a 42' Ocean Alexander. Of course we had all the required equipment. I wonder about the little guys near the shore, though.

I still have a day/night signal flare from fifty years ago. I wonder if it will still work. I also carried a raft, a handheld radio in a waterproof container, and always wore inflatable LPUs while crossing. And went over at either 11,000 or 12,000 feet.
 
172andyou said:
Raft: Do small rafts not have ladders as standard equipment? Or is it hard to get in even if you have one?
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If you are flying where you think you need a liferaft/exposure suit, you really ought to try getting in it in ~32 degree water and 6 foot seas. Then hang out in it for a few hours in those seas and the wind. Speaking more to the North Atlantic and the area around Cape Horn/Antarctica. Even well equipped, you're looking at 6 or more hours for rescue at the best.
You get weak fast, so you have not a lot of time to get in the wet, slippery and not very rigid life raft. You are also in the suit that makes everything harder to do. Once you get in you're still wet and you're not getting dry unless the weather gets very favorable. You absolutely need to carry this stuff, but going down in those areas is still a big gamble.
 
Gilbert Buettner said:
Even small fishing boats?
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Anything larger than 16 feet, with a couple of caveats.

What do you need on a boat for Coast Guard safety requirements? – American Vessel Documentation

unitedstatesvessel.us unitedstatesvessel.us

Gilbert Buettner said:
I still have a day/night signal flare from fifty years ago. I wonder if it will still work.
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Flares have to be coast guard certified, and expire in 3.5 years.

Boating laws are way more aggressively enforced than aircraft laws. In busy waters, USCG safety checks for required equipment are not unusual. Local LEO's and State wildlife agencies get into the action too.
 
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Hang 4 said:
If you are flying where you think you need a liferaft/exposure suit, you really ought to try getting in it in ~32 degree water and 6 foot seas. Then hang out in it for a few hours in those seas and the wind. Speaking more to the North Atlantic and the area around Cape Horn/Antarctica. Even well equipped, you're looking at 6 or more hours for rescue at the best.
You get weak fast, so you have not a lot of time to get in the wet, slippery and not very rigid life raft. You are also in the suit that makes everything harder to do. Once you get in you're still wet and you're not getting dry unless the weather gets very favorable. You absolutely need to carry this stuff, but going down in those areas is still a big gamble.
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I've done dry suit in glacial river at 35F. So moving water instead of six foot rollers. Don't know how to translate those two modes of water movement. And got back into the raft after 20 minutes or so without trouble. Anyway it gave me a (misplaced?) confidence that exposure wouldn't be the concern. People have brought up good points, but I gotta say, I'm still more concerned about trees or a house than the ocean.
 
Katamarino said:
I have about a 2,500 nm range.
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Curious what your take is on the survivability of a water ditching in those waters if he was equipped/prepared/trained like you have for your long over-water legs. Raft, survival suit, radios/other survival items, proper training ahead of time, etc.

I'm a ways off if it ever happens, but the thought has crossed my mind to try to take the Comanche on a New England to Europe trip via your route of Goose bay/Greenland/Iceland -- tamer waters and in theory much better access to potential rescue (and retract would seem to help in a ditching). But the risk of losing engine in the middle of the ocean, however low the odds, does turn me off the idea a bit.
 
SoonerAviator said:
Now there's lead contamination in the tundra from burning AvGas near the penguins.
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Now you’re just being silly. Penguins don’t fly.

172andyou said:
Injuries: no argument.

Raft: Do small rafts not have ladders as standard equipment? Or is it hard to get in even if you have one?
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try doing it in the ocean, in freezing water, wearing an exposure suit. If you manage it you’ve already beaten the odds.
 
T Bird said:
Curious what your take is on the survivability of a water ditching in those waters if he was equipped/prepared/trained like you have for your long over-water legs. Raft, survival suit, radios/other survival items, proper training ahead of time, etc.
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I think survivability would be quite good as long as you'd gone in a decent weather window, which it seems he did. Doug Ritter did a good study on ditching and found that in upwards of 90% of ditchings the occupants egress safely; and that high vs low wing, and fixed gear vs retractable, don't make a big difference. Assuming one has done ditching training I'd feel confident about getting out of the aircraft.

After that, I also think survivability would be high (or I wouldn't do this kind of flight). I use an InReach tracker, and also have the aircraft ELT and a PLB. On a flight like that plenty of people would be watching the InReach in real time. I would expect to be able to set off the ELT and InReach SOS before even hitting the water so people should know I'm in trouble, and where, immediately. I wear a dry suit, and the PLB and InReach would be in my life vest. The vest also has marine and air band radios on it as well as sea dye and some other bits and pieces.

I am not sure if I'd manage to get my raft out. It's a 4 man offshore raft and quite heavy. I have been thinking about replacing it with a one-man.

I think that time to wait for pick-up would hopefully be not too bad, although I don't know much about vessel traffic through there. If still close to South America then you'd be in helicopter range. Beyond that - not sure? I believe that even in good weather there would be a lot of swell around there, so getting picked up by a ship might be interesting. Hopefully they'd have a crane and Dacron scoop to pluck you out of the water, or a decent Fast Rescue Craft!
 
172andyou said:
Raft: Do small rafts not have ladders as standard equipment? Or is it hard to get in even if you have one
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It takes a special technique to climb in a raft using the attached ladder.

You are waterlogged and heavy, and weakened by whatever got you in the water to begin with. You have to use a good amount of upper body strength and throw your legs up and behind you (might be difficult to explain, but you have to fling your lower legs up to use that momentum) and propel yoursrself up and into the raft.

If there's more than one of you, you get the strongest one or two into the raft first, and they help the others in.

Some rafts have a "landing pad" that makes it easier to get in.
 
Now picked up by CNN with an interesting quote from his lawyer.


On Sunday, his lawyer told reporters at a press conference after Guo was charged that the young pilot experienced “complications” while flying. “While already in the air, he began to experience a series of complications,” Karina Ulloa said, adding that Guo claims “that he was conducting an exploratory flight to see if he could follow this route or not.”
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I'm not sure how convincing that is! :oops:

He says he wants to be the first person to fly in a small airplane to every continent - but isn't that something that Max Conrad (and perhaps others) have already done?
 
Compare this to say- Lindbergh’s flight. It’s not nearly as epic, but arguably it’s far less risky. An engine out in a well maintained c182 isn’t common. 1/100,000 hrs, ballpark?
We get in cars almost every day, yet that comes with a 1/9000 annualized risk of fatality.
healthy person having a general anesthetic? Ballpark, 1/500,000 risk of death. Yet people choose that for cosmetic surgery.
This is way cooler than cosmetic surgery.
 
luvflyin said:
How overweight? That’s something you must have considered in maybe have had the need to do in your travels.
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At takeoff I was about 625lbs over max landing weight. That's about 20% of MTOW.
 
Gilbert Buettner said:
You may not be able to get into the raft. In 2001, I flew the Cayman Caravan from Key West to Grand Cayman. As part of the survival briefing, the organizers inflated a raft in the motel pool in Key West. More than half of the people could not climb into the raft, and this was in a pool with no waves or swells. They just weren't strong enough.

Maybe adrenalin would make the difference.

I did USAF Sea Survival School in Biscayne Bay, and was able to get into a one-man raft after parasailing out over the water. But I was in my early 20s and a lot stronger back then.
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We had the same issue in our companies water training.
That said, those who were able to get into the raft were able to pull up those who were not.
Everyone eventually got into the raft.
 
luvflyin said:
How overweight? That’s something you must have considered in maybe have had the need to do in your travels.
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If there is one thing I wouldn't worry about in an endeavour like that, it's landing overweight with a C182. As long as you make a normal touchdown there will be no harm whatsoever.
 
If they let him go solo back to civilization, he should divert to Argentina for a heroes welcome. Chile and Argentina aren't exactly friendly.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Holy cow. Big brass ones. 700 miles over water in a single engine aircraft, in the most inhospitable climate on earth. Ditching would be certain death.

I can't even work up the nerve to fly 50 miles to the Bahamas.
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But the number of clicks, likes, and comments would be epic!
 
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