Airline-Pilot Shortage Arrives Ahead of Schedule

flhrci said:
Is there any push from any group or person to push Cognress to roll it back? Like an activist type group? Just curious since there are groups for everything else.

David
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I'd bet A4A is working on it now. Look for code words like "data driven, responsible, and disciplined."
 
SkyHog said:
Her real name is Nadia Marcinko. Look for the relation to Jeffrey Epstein.
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Nadia Marcinkova is linked to Jeffrey Epstein and pedophilia

Nadia Marcinko is linked to Global Girl.

Please share evidence that these two are in fact the same person.
 
TMetzinger said:
Nadia Marcinkova is linked to Jeffrey Epstein and pedophilia



Nadia Marcinko is linked to Global Girl.



Please share evidence that these two are in fact the same person.
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Really?

Look, I apologize for bringing it back up, but we have already discussed this issue ad naseum here in another thread. I don't think we need to completely derail this thread in order to revisit it.
 
Fearless Tower said:
This. Hard to have a real pilot shortage when there are pilots willing to pay for the 'privilege' to keep the right seat warm.
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What outfit is that at ? Regionals are paying signing bonuses now. It used to be knuckleheads were paying to work there now with the 1500 hour rule that's disappeared unless you know different.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
Exactly. If I wouldn't be looking at 10 years or so to be getting back to my current pay, I might consider airlines. But I can't afford to be making less than welfare.
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WHAT ??????
Taking a look a current hiring trends just how long are you imaging you'll have to be at a Regional ? What is the ten year outlook of your current gig ?
 
JGoodish said:
Riiiiight! Neither would the local convenience store if they quit offering $8.75/hour + benefits and started everyone at $100k/year. Of course, then they'd become insolvent and nobody would even have an opportunity for those jobs.

If there isn't a pilot shortage, there isn't a pay shortage. The new ATP standards aren't going to magically raise pilot pay, they're just a higher barrier to entry for younger pilots who would take flying at a regional in a heartbeat over scrubbing toilets at the local flight school. The real winners of the new requirements are the members of the higher education lobby, who get to line their pockets as a result of yet another government mandate.


JKG
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Maybe there's some cash that will have to be moved from management toward the cockpit. If they ain't got no pilots what are they going to manage ? What are they even in business for ? Where did American Eagle "suddenly" find the money to pay out $5000 dollar signing bonuses ???? I guess Eagle just decided to start handing $5000 dollar checks out of the goodness of their hearts not because they were having difficulty finding pilots. :rolleyes:
 
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jonnyjetprop said:
There's no pilot shortage. There's a shortage of folks willing to roll the dice at a regional. I have no sympathy as it was the majors that constructed the regional system. The regionals have been cutting pay and benefits as they fight to hold on to their contracts with the major carriers. They offer a signing bonus because it's cheaper to pay a one time payment instead of a livable wage.

The day Delta drops it's minimum requirements will be the day there's a shortage.

Yes, I'm an airline pilot. We have 300 pilots on furlough. Most are still either unemployed, under employed or have fled overseas.

There's only one reason to promote the "pilot shortage". That's to roll back the 1500 hr law and to amend FAR 117.
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Our (Delta) published hiring minimums are 1200 hours !!!! You can't even work for a regional for that - kind of odd. You want us to lower that ? If you've got friends that are out of pilot work send them over to Delta - were hiring 50 a month. Or send them to United - they're hiring 60 a month !
When was the last time you saw the majors doing that !

If you can't see it you just ain't hooked up right
 
No 4 year degree. Change that and I could fill at least two classes with ex-World guys.

Art VanDelay said:
Our (Delta) published hiring minimums are 1200 hours !!!! You can't even work for a regional for that - kind of odd. You want us to lower that ? If you've got friends that are out of pilot work send them over to Delta - were hiring 50 a month. Or send them to United - they're hiring 60 a month !
When was the last time you saw the majors doing that !

If you can't see it you just ain't hooked up right
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Art VanDelay said:
What outfit is that at ? Regionals are paying signing bonuses now. It used to be knuckleheads were paying to work there now with the 1500 hour rule that's disappeared unless you know different.
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Still see ads all the time for crap like Eagle Jet.
 
jonnyjetprop said:
No 4 year degree. Change that and I could fill at least two classes with ex-World guys.
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Ahhhh ! Understood. Yeah they're not gonna drop that. Seems to me I recall some diploma mill over in Utah that gives you a ridiculous amount of credit for having an ATP. Maybe they could try that.
 
Art VanDelay said:
Our (Delta)
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I will give you this Art, at least you guys are consistent. I have a couple friends at Delta and they have been saying the same thing for a while now. I'd like to believe it. If true, the big hiring boom is supposed to happen right around the time I retire from the Navy.....but I'm not holding my breath. In the meantime, I'll just keep building time and keep options open.
 
Art VanDelay said:
WHAT ??????
Taking a look a current hiring trends just how long are you imaging you'll have to be at a Regional ? What is the ten year outlook of your current gig ?
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Of course, the whole thing with the regionals is you're there for a short period of time before going to a major, assuming you don't get furloughed and can get hired at a major in time. But going on the pay scales, it'd take roughly 10 years at the regionals to meet my current salary.

Now once I get to a major, it'd take about 2nd year FO to meet current salary. If I started at a regional today, then that would be, let's say 5 years from now between getting more hours to be a candidate for a major and then getting there. This also assumes that there's no furloughing in the time period. And then after I meet the current salary, I have to then go and make enough to make up for the lost pay that I had vs. what I could be making at my current gig, which will take a while.

Of course, in that same period the salary at the current job will have been going up, too. Granted not on as drastic a scale, but still significantly.

The problem is that the pay scales are such that you have to be willing to live below the poverty line to get started and then hope you don't get furloughed while you get to the point where you can get hired. That's a hard pill to swallow (impossible for many who simply can't afford it, especially if they have a family). Early year pay scales need to go up so that someone can afford to have luxuries like food during that time period.

No pilot shortage, pay shortage.
 
What are your times now and what have you been flying ? You might not even have to do the regional thing.
 
taters said:
Stuck " or being a senior line holder is worth the QOL vs being a reserve Captain? lots of FO's make that decision intentionally

trust me once they weed out the thousands of Dbags that apply.... there will be a shortage of qualified people you would not want to strangle after a 4 day
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I make more money and have more days off as a junior widebody FO than I would as a junior 737 captain. For me, the choice was easy.


There will (mostly likely) never be a shortage of pilots for the large airlines. What will happen is the large, better paying airlines will clean out the regionals and those airlines will have a hard time convincing people to come to work for $20k the first year. And of course, the music will eventually stop some day and the worst place to be is at the bottom of a regional list for a decade. Low pay and no TPIC, which is needed to move on.
 
If there is not a shortage there will be one. Then there won't be one. Then there will be one. Then there won't be one. That is the great circle of life. Your career all depends on luck and timing.
When I flew 135 single pilot "night fright" the assumption was that I would do that several years before a regional touched me. I was hired off to a regional in 6 months (as soon as I hit 2000 TT/500 MEL). When hired I was told about 8 years to upgrade. I was a turbo trash captain in a year. Was I rich? No, but I did well enough to support a wife and two kids while she was going through medical school.
Of course I knew guys who were hired onto the panel and told in two years they would be captains; 13 years later they made FO. I knew guys junior to me at my regional who due to airplane selection got the time necessary to be hired by the majors before me. I gnashed my teeth as they took off for the big show. They were hired in August 2001. Several months later they were back flying with me, but in the right seat.
My first regional interview with a highly respected regional that was my first choice went very poorly. I was devastated. They went under while my wife was in medical school. Best thing that happened to me. Along with not being hired by the majors.
I once flew with an FO. He started off telling me how much things sucked when he was a student pilot. He hated being a CFI. Flying 135 was horrible. He detested being and FO for our regional. But man... when he moved across the ramp and flew the big iron, things would be great. He was all of 21. I asked him if he ever had another job- of course not. I've been... let me think... a camp counselor; short order cook; boat skipper; scuba diver; MP; infantry; military pilot/IP; CFI; 135 pilot; 121 pilot... other stuff in there as well that I've forgotten. Some jobs sucked, some were good. Being a 121 pilot was not one of the jobs that sucked. This kid reminded me of doctors my wife has run into. She worked fast food, worked water purification and laundry/bath, parachute rigger, pilot, test pilot, now an orthopeadic surgeon. Being an orthopeadic surgeon does not suck, and she tells doctors who snivel as much.
As that famous pilot (among other things), Buckaroo Banzai said, "No matter where you go, there you are."
 
Art VanDelay said:
What are your times now and what have you been flying ? You might not even have to do the regional thing.
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Low 600s now. With close to 300 ME. Probably have around 1200, maybe a little more when I get out. If I decide to try pro flying, I figure I can get 1500 and the ATP within a year of two after retirement.
 
Art VanDelay said:
What are your times now and what have you been flying ? You might not even have to do the regional thing.
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2100 TT, 1700 MEL, 300 IR (mostly actual), 1900 XC, 2000 PIC

Mostly piston twins, 50 hours turboprop time. No jets.
 
Rex Kramer said:
There will (mostly likely) never be a shortage of pilots for the large airlines. What will happen is the large, better paying airlines will clean out the regionals and those airlines will have a hard time convincing people to come to work for $20k the first year. And of course, the music will eventually stop some day and the worst place to be is at the bottom of a regional list for a decade. Low pay and no TPIC, which is needed to move on.
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That's exactly it. The regional lack sufficient pay, especially in the first few years.
 
Blackhawk said:
If there is not a shortage there will be one. Then there won't be one. Then there will be one. Then there won't be one. That is the great circle of life. Your career all depends on luck and timing.
When I flew 135 single pilot "night fright" the assumption was that I would do that several years before a regional touched me. I was hired off to a regional in 6 months (as soon as I hit 2000 TT/500 MEL). When hired I was told about 8 years to upgrade. I was a turbo trash captain in a year. Was I rich? No, but I did well enough to support a wife and two kids while she was going through medical school.
Of course I knew guys who were hired onto the panel and told in two years they would be captains; 13 years later they made FO. I knew guys junior to me at my regional who due to airplane selection got the time necessary to be hired by the majors before me. I gnashed my teeth as they took off for the big show. They were hired in August 2001. Several months later they were back flying with me, but in the right seat.
My first regional interview with a highly respected regional that was my first choice went very poorly. I was devastated. They went under while my wife was in medical school. Best thing that happened to me. Along with not being hired by the majors.
I once flew with an FO. He started off telling me how much things sucked when he was a student pilot. He hated being a CFI. Flying 135 was horrible. He detested being and FO for our regional. But man... when he moved across the ramp and flew the big iron, things would be great. He was all of 21. I asked him if he ever had another job- of course not. I've been... let me think... a camp counselor; short order cook; boat skipper; scuba diver; MP; infantry; military pilot/IP; CFI; 135 pilot; 121 pilot... other stuff in there as well that I've forgotten. Some jobs sucked, some were good. Being a 121 pilot was not one of the jobs that sucked. This kid reminded me of doctors my wife has run into. She worked fast food, worked water purification and laundry/bath, parachute rigger, pilot, test pilot, now an orthopeadic surgeon. Being an orthopeadic surgeon does not suck, and she tells doctors who snivel as much.
As that famous pilot (among other things), Buckaroo Banzai said, "No matter where you go, there you are."
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This +1000. There's a huge amount of randomness in anyone's career path. What worked for one person at one time may not have worked for others at the same time, let alone at any point in the future. Some businesses do well, others do poorly, ownership changes, you may get a weak manager who only knows how to hire from other companies, so there's no chance at advancement, or a good one at a good company that provides an actual career path.
 
This is a huge point.

I'll take it one step further. One's airline career can vary because of when you were hired on at the same airline. My airline has pilots that were a DC-10 captain in less than a year, never furloughed and their only current concern is if we stay in business. It took me 8 years to upgrade, downgraded after 18 and facing the street.





FormerHangie said:
This +1000. There's a huge amount of randomness in anyone's career path. What worked for one person at one time may not have worked for others at the same time, let alone at any point in the future. Some businesses do well, others do poorly, ownership changes, you may get a weak manager who only knows how to hire from other companies, so there's no chance at advancement, or a good one at a good company that provides an actual career path.
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FormerHangie said:
This +1000. There's a huge amount of randomness in anyone's career path. What worked for one person at one time may not have worked for others at the same time, let alone at any point in the future. Some businesses do well, others do poorly, ownership changes, you may get a weak manager who only knows how to hire from other companies, so there's no chance at advancement, or a good one at a good company that provides an actual career path.
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So, so true, in any field.:yes:

8 years at one point in my career were determined because I decided I would go to lunch with a group of guys who just happened to walk through my corner of the building and asked if I wanted to join them.

Have a plan, be prepared to change it at any point.
 
The deregulated airline world has without doubt created a tumultuous career path for many. With pilot's dreams littered left and right. But one has to look forward and consider now the effect of basically just three Major airlines vs. seven in past times. The mergers are pretty much done. American USS Airways barely scrapped by with worries of it being just too big. I can't see any more being allowed.

With the three Majors being so major now comes a strange level of security - "Too big to fail". Now, I'm not saying that's right but it sure gets Congresses attention. The American merger creates a company with over 120,000 employees. Chrysler Motors was bailed out and propped up with just HALF that number. And just like the Auto Industry the Airlines feed and keep alive several subsidiary businesses on the sidelines.

Now I'm not trying to jinx an entire industry but looking to the future I just don't see the same type of problems cropping up in the Majors as what we saw before. Nowadays and going forward the greatest threat would be foreign take-over by the likes of Emirates or Qatar and we're starting to begin to see that quietly take place in the form of a U.S. Customs Pre-Clearance Facility being planned for UAE.
 
Count me as skeptical about any real pilot shortage. There are occasional spot shortages of pilots were are sufficiently starry-eyed with a credit card paid by his/her parents that will sign up to fly right seat in a 1900 to Alliance, NE, but I am not going to buy into any real shortage until the industry talks about making the job better to attract more and better qualified pilots.

In 1997, I ran the numbers between going to the regionals and on to the airlines, against going to grad school. Grad school won, though it seemed a shame to bench 7200 hours, half multi, and a fair amount of turbine time. I have not regretted the decision as I watched the pensions disappear, bankruptcies, furloughs, and what not.
 
Art VanDelay said:
The deregulated airline world has without doubt created a tumultuous career path for many. With pilot's dreams littered left and right. But one has to look forward and consider now the effect of basically just three Major airlines vs. seven in past times. The mergers are pretty much done. American USS Airways barely scrapped by with worries of it being just too big. I can't see any more being allowed.

With the three Majors being so major now comes a strange level of security - "Too big to fail". Now, I'm not saying that's right but it sure gets Congresses attention. The American merger creates a company with over 120,000 employees. Chrysler Motors was bailed out and propped up with just HALF that number. And just like the Auto Industry the Airlines feed and keep alive several subsidiary businesses on the sidelines.

Now I'm not trying to jinx an entire industry but looking to the future I just don't see the same type of problems cropping up in the Majors as what we saw before. Nowadays and going forward the greatest threat would be foreign take-over by the likes of Emirates or Qatar and we're starting to begin to see that quietly take place in the form of a U.S. Customs Pre-Clearance Facility being planned for UAE.
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I'd put Southwest in the major category as well. They're just barely behind UAL in emplanements.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
2100 TT, 1700 MEL, 300 IR (mostly actual), 1900 XC, 2000 PIC

Mostly piston twins, 50 hours turboprop time. No jets.
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About triple that here, about 500 of it SIC 4-engine turboprop time. You won't drag me out of a cubicle and back into a cockpit for "pay". Not after I've reached a point in life that flying can be a hobby. Kids at airports ask me how they can get their "big break" to to fly for a "living", I just walk away. Some dreams deserve to be crushed but there is no dissuading someone with so many stars in their eyes.
 
Kristin said:
Count me as skeptical about any real pilot shortage. There are occasional spot shortages of pilots were are sufficiently starry-eyed with a credit card paid by his/her parents that will sign up to fly right seat in a 1900 to Alliance, NE, but I am not going to buy into any real shortage until the industry talks about making the job better to attract more and better qualified pilots.

In 1997, I ran the numbers between going to the regionals and on to the airlines, against going to grad school. Grad school won, though it seemed a shame to bench 7200 hours, half multi, and a fair amount of turbine time. I have not regretted the decision as I watched the pensions disappear, bankruptcies, furloughs, and what not.
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Then why are some regionals offering $5000 dollar signing bonuses if there is a plethora of suitable applicants ?
Are you aware that also packaged with the 1500 hour rule is the caveat that in order to upgrade to Captain a regional F/O has to have 1000hrs of part 121 time ? What effect do you suppose that would have on things.

I'm glad you're happy with your earthbound "safe" duties - that would never work for me. I look forward to going to places I only read about as boy in magazines all as part of my job.
 
Kristin said:
but I am not going to buy into any real shortage until the industry talks about making the job better to attract more and better qualified pilots.
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That seems somewhat of a contradictory statement though. If the industry did make the job better to attract more and better quality pilots, then there really wouldn't be a basis for a pilot shortage.
 
Fearless Tower said:
That seems somewhat of a contradictory statement though. If the industry did make the job better to attract more and better quality pilots, then there really wouldn't be a basis for a pilot shortage.
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That's exactly why there isn't a pilot shortage.

A shortage is when the product or service physically isn't there. A food shortage means there's a lack of food, you just can't get it.

There are lots of pilots available, they just aren't willing to take the job.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
That's exactly why there isn't a pilot shortage.

A shortage is when the product or service physically isn't there. A food shortage means there's a lack of food, you just can't get it.

There are lots of pilots available, they just aren't willing to take the job.
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Well, how about this, then. There is a shortage of pilots willing to work under the current pay/conditions. Still equates to a shortage. But one that may be able to be solved if the pay/conditions improve.
 
Greg Bockelman said:
Well, how about this, then. There is a shortage of pilots willing to work under the current pay/conditions. Still equates to a shortage. But one that may be able to be solved if the pay/conditions improve.
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If I can't find gasoline at the price I'd like to pay, does that mean there's a shortage? The whole point of having a market economy is for the market to set prices. There are plenty of people who are willing and able to get the needed training, but won't work for such niggardly wages.

It's up to the employers to offer a wage that gets them the people they need.
 
Greg Bockelman said:
Well, how about this, then. There is a shortage of pilots willing to work under the current pay/conditions. Still equates to a shortage. But one that may be able to be solved if the pay/conditions improve.
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That isn't a shortage, that is employers being cheap and whiny.
 
Art VanDelay said:
They also have the highest labor costs in the industry.
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Exactly why I've been thinking SWA is probably the worst place to go now. They're next for the Chapter 11 line, IMO.

Art VanDelay said:
Then why are some regionals offering $5000 dollar signing bonuses if there is a plethora of suitable applicants ?
Are you aware that also packaged with the 1500 hour rule is the caveat that in order to upgrade to Captain a regional F/O has to have 1000hrs of part 121 time ? What effect do you suppose that would have on things.
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Doesn't have to be 1000 hours of 121 time. It can be certain 135 operations as well, IIRC.
 
FormerHangie said:
If I can't find gasoline at the price I'd like to pay, does that mean there's a shortage?
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Kind of a difference without distinction IMO. If you aren't willing to pay the price, your tank is still empty and you still aren't going anywhere.
 
FormerHangie said:
If I can't find gasoline at the price I'd like to pay, does that mean there's a shortage? The whole point of having a market economy is for the market to set prices. There are plenty of people who are willing and able to get the needed training, but won't work for such niggardly wages.

It's up to the employers to offer a wage that gets them the people they need.
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Greg Bockelman said:
Well, how about this, then. There is a shortage of pilots willing to work under the current pay/conditions. Still equates to a shortage. But one that may be able to be solved if the pay/conditions improve.
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Ted DuPuis said:
That's exactly why there isn't a pilot shortage.

A shortage is when the product or service physically isn't there. A food shortage means there's a lack of food, you just can't get it.

There are lots of pilots available, they just aren't willing to take the job.
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ClimbnSink said:
That isn't a shortage, that is employers being cheap and whiny.
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In economic terms, the issue is the difference between supply and quantity supplied; demand and quantity demanded. "Supply" refers to the supply curve. This can shift over time, but it essentially reflects the current market conditions. "Quantity supplied" refers to a specific point on the supply curve. So, today, at if wages offered to prospective pilots is 100k per year, the airline can hire a lot of pilots, because they are out their to be had. The quantity supplied goes up. On the other hand, offer 15k per year, and not many show up. The quantity supplied goes down. Keep offering 100k per year to lots of pilots, and more will enter the field, shifting the curve up. Then you can accurately say supply has increased.
 
KSCessnaDriver said:
Exactly why I've been thinking SWA is probably the worst place to go now. They're next for the Chapter 11 line, IMO.



Doesn't have to be 1000 hours of 121 time. It can be certain 135 operations as well, IIRC.
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That and you probably won't be doing too much international flying. That's why I was never too excited about going there. How excited can you get about a Cleveland layover ?
 
JHW said:
Kids at airports ask me how they can get their "big break" to to fly for a "living", I just walk away. Some dreams deserve to be crushed but there is no dissuading someone with so many stars in their eyes.
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tooweaktofollowdreams.jpg
 
Greg Bockelman said:
Well, how about this, then. There is a shortage of pilots willing to work under the current pay/conditions. Still equates to a shortage. But one that may be able to be solved if the pay/conditions improve.
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It doesn't equate to a shortage, it equates to a plane not getting flown. A more accurate analogy would be someone goes to a store, sees the whole store filled with milk priced at $5/gallon, and walks out of the store complaining "I can't find any milk!" because he's only willing to pay $1/gallon.

That is what the airlines industry is doing right now.
 
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