Airline-Pilot Shortage Arrives Ahead of Schedule

We'll see how bad it is, but I will say this.....American is apparently hiring now...and the last time they did that was 9/10/2001.
 
I call bulls**t. There's been a "pilot shortage" just around the corner, for what, 40 years now? Or as long as integrated pilot career schools or aviation degrees have been around, curiously. See the connection? There are millions of CFI's and low times around who can't get arrested. Before that pool is used up, and before they start paying decent wages again, they will have satisfied all their needs and then some. No need for any new pilots.

Look at Kent Wien at American. Took him 20 years to upgrade from FO to captain just last year and then to the MD80 that nobody wanted to fly. Now he's back as FO on 767's when they got rid of the MD80's. Sound like a shortage to anyone? Sound like the captains are retiring en masse?

http://www.gadling.com/2013/03/07/cockpit-chronicles-a-captain-no-more/

But at least the ATP requirements have restored some of the qualifications for the profession. Now, you actually need to have some experience. Maybe they will have no choice but to start paying better than McDonalds.
 
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I read the article in WSJ, and it does not present any compelling evidence that there's a big shortage right now. It says that American got 10,000 applications for 1,5000 openings that are expected for the next five years, and American can fill them easily by hiring from the regionals.

The only real problem with hiring seems to be in the tiniest regional operators. They mentioned Great Lakes Aviation, which flies to locations like Liberal KS and Ft Dodge IA.

Newspapers like to write scary stories, and readers of WSJ often fly the airlines, so some editor at WSJ decided it was time for a scary story about airlines and this is what they drummed up, and it wasn't much.
 
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At no time in the past has there been this many collaborating factors - At the top end of the pyramid retirements the likes of which we have never seen before. In 2016 some majors will be retiring 1.5 pilots per day. When have we seen anything like that in the past ? In the past there was no Part 117 rule which will basically equate to needing more pilots to run the operation due to increased rest rules.

At the bottom of the pyramid there is the 1500 hour requirement - this did not exist in the past. In previous hiring waves the Majors could grab all the regional guys up with impunity because the regionals could just artificially lower their hiring standards - not so anymore.

The military now requires a twelve year commitment to go to flight school. Not six or eight like in times past. Additionally those of you who served can do the math - what does a twelve year Major make compared to what he or she would make starting out at a major - that's a big pay hit especially if they have a family in tow. Consider too every day the military finds more and more ways to use UAVs. And if you look at a lot of the missions it makes sense - why put a man in harms way when machine can do it ?

Yes, I'll agree we've all heard the sales pitches from times past but this IS different.
 
I don't believe it. If that were true, then:

1. FO's would upgrade to captain on American/United/Delta. They don't. Instead they're stuck in the right seat for 20 years.
2. Emirates/Etihad/Qatar wouldn't be full of Americans.

All you need to do is go to Pprune forum to read just how bad it is worldwide. People with 3-4000hrs with A320 and B737 type ratings that can't even get an interview. And this on a continent where low cost carriers like Ryan Air, Easy Jet run huge numbers. Ryan Air being one of the biggest airlines in the world in passengers carried. Europe and the US follow each other in pilot needs.
 
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stratobee said:
I don't believe it. If that were true, then:

1. FO's would upgrade to captain on American/United/Delta. They don't. Instead they're stuck in the right seat for 20 years.
2. Emirates/Etihad/Qatar wouldn't be full of Americans.

All you need to do is go to Pprune forum to read just how bad it is worldwide. People with 3-4000hrs with A320 and B737 type ratings that can't even get an interview. And this on a continent where low cost carriers like Ryan Air, Easy Jet run huge numbers. Ryan Air being one of the biggest airlines in the world in passengers carried. Europe and the US follow each other in pilot needs.
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Ahh do you work for an airline ?
 
No I do not. But I read all their complaints on Pprune…:D

Or go to Airline Pilots Forum - every second topic is "Who's hiring?"...
 
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stratobee said:
I don't believe it. If that were true, then:
1. FO's would upgrade to captain on American/United/Delta. They don't. Instead they're stuck in the right seat for 20 years.
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Stuck " or being a senior line holder is worth the QOL vs being a reserve Captain? lots of FO's make that decision intentionally

trust me once they weed out the thousands of Dbags that apply.... there will be a shortage of qualified people you would not want to strangle after a 4 day
 
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I hope I'm wrong, but I've heard this talk ever since I was 19 when I contemplated becoming a professional. That's 24 years ago. Out of many of the friends that DID go down that route, one made it through and is actually a 757 captain today. Every other one gave it up. So let me take this breaking news with a giant serving of salt.

These guys seem to agree:

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/career-questions/79494-pilot-shortage.html

Anyway, IF there is a shortage, the only shortage will be a lack of pilots wanting to work for $20K a year at some godforsaken regional.
 
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RotorAndWing said:
Since one must be subscribed to the WSJ to read your posted article it's a bit hard to "discuss" the article if no one can read it. :rolleyes2:
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WSJ Paywall is very permeable.

Just take the article title and stuff it into Google. Referrals from Google don't pop up the subscriber link...probably works with Bing and others too, but it's an easy fix anytime I get the "Please subscribe" from WSJ.
 
I have a reason to believe that there is a demand from regionals. I've talked to a few regionals HR reps and hiring managers that came to our college to talk to our students, (of course the real discussions happen when they chat with the CFI's). Right now there are a few regionals that are once again offering hiring bonuses and guarantee certain airframes during the hiring process. A few of them have stated that upgrade times are starting to rapidly shift from a several years to less than 2 as the airlines are starting to pull a good number of the 5-6 year Captains up to the majors. General feeling seems that things will get more desperate for the regionals in the next two to three years as the bottom line is there are significantly less qualified candidates as was before.

On top of this, it has been my experience that CFI's have been coming more and more hard to come by. Most of the schools are looking for qualified instructors, however there are less and less qualified individuals (full timers) and some of the interviews have been grim (as a lot of candidates have the "give me flight hours, I dont care for ground and sim" mentality to try to log as much as possible). Problem is, with the new hour requirement most CFI's look at 1.5 years to 2 years before they can even think about interviews. I've seen a few instructors (not at my current place of employment) get burnt out because it wasnt something they enjoyed to begin with...now add 2 years of long days and now most locally here jump the ship for banner towing or other Part135 low requirement jobs.
 
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There is not a pilot shortage, there is a pay shortage. If they get the pay up, they will have no shortage of readily available pilots who'd be willing.
 
davidm767 said:
I have a reason to believe that there is a demand from regionals. .... Right now there are a few regionals that are once again offering hiring bonuses
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That agrees with the WSJ article. Excerpt:

Mr. Darby said regional airlines have boosted pilot recruitment, including offering $5,000-to-$10,000 signing bonuses. Despite that, starting annual pay at most remains low, often $16,000 to $25,000—a bitter pill for a pilot who has paid $75,000 to $150,000 to be trained.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
There is not a pilot shortage, there is a pay shortage. If they get the pay up, they will have no shortage of readily available pilots who'd be willing.
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This. Hard to have a real pilot shortage when there are pilots willing to pay for the 'privilege' to keep the right seat warm.
 
NoHeat said:
That agrees with the WSJ article. Excerpt:

Mr. Darby said regional airlines have boosted pilot recruitment, including offering $5,000-to-$10,000 signing bonuses. Despite that, starting annual pay at most remains low, often $16,000 to $25,000—a bitter pill for a pilot who has paid $75,000 to $150,000 to be trained.
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While I agree with the fact that first year pay is low, I think a more valuable comparison is second year pay.
 
Fearless Tower said:
This. Hard to have a real pilot shortage when there are pilots willing to pay for the 'privilege' to keep the right seat warm.
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Exactly. If I wouldn't be looking at 10 years or so to be getting back to my current pay, I might consider airlines. But I can't afford to be making less than welfare.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
There is not a pilot shortage, there is a pay shortage. If they get the pay up, they will have no shortage of readily available pilots who'd be willing.
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Riiiiight! Neither would the local convenience store if they quit offering $8.75/hour + benefits and started everyone at $100k/year. Of course, then they'd become insolvent and nobody would even have an opportunity for those jobs.

If there isn't a pilot shortage, there isn't a pay shortage. The new ATP standards aren't going to magically raise pilot pay, they're just a higher barrier to entry for younger pilots who would take flying at a regional in a heartbeat over scrubbing toilets at the local flight school. The real winners of the new requirements are the members of the higher education lobby, who get to line their pockets as a result of yet another government mandate.


JKG
 
Greg Bockelman said:
While I agree with the fact that first year pay is low, I think a more valuable comparison is second year pay.
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I agree. Most people don't realize first year is "probationary pay" ya it sucks but damn near a third of your first year is spent in training. This is not a career that provides much instant gratification. But with some smart decisions , hard work, luck , and determination a rewarding career and QOL can be had....I worked 9 days in December and 9 in January :yes:
 
I bought into the shortage BS in the early 90s. Got all my ratings, built my hours, and learned that due to so many pilots out there, the airlines, mostly regionals charged $10,000 for training after being hired. But if you failed training, you lost your job, and you $10,000. Even for 135 ops they had you pay for your training to ride right seat, and only log dead head hours as part 91.
 
TommyG said:
I bought into the shortage BS in the early 90s. Got all my ratings, built my hours, and learned that due to so many pilots out there, the airlines, mostly regionals charged $10,000 for training after being hired. But if you failed training, you lost your job, and you $10,000. Even for 135 ops they had you pay for your training to ride right seat, and only log dead head hours as part 91.
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The PFT stuff in the 90's was rampant and a pure and total scam.


Well last week I was in the training dept. with all the FO's that took the signing bonus....we give them 8 sims and maybe 1 more if they just have to have it to pass....I was helping them on sim 11 and 12 and none of them had done any single-engine stuff yet (sim 2 you should start that)....trust me regionals are at the bottom of the "talent pool" already....we have failed/fired tons of new FO's lately that cant fly.
 
taters said:
Well last week I was in the training dept. with all the FO's that took the signing bonus....we give them 8 sims and maybe 1 more if they just have to have it to pass....I was helping them on sim 11 and 12 and none of them had done any single-engine stuff yet (sim 2 you should start that)....trust me regionals are at the bottom of the "talent pool" already....we have failed/fired tons of new FO's lately that cant fly.
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Saying that the regionals are at the bottom of the pool now is rather scary....since it has been at least 5 years since Mesa was hiring the COMM ASEL 250 TT FO candidates.
 
Fearless Tower said:
That reminds me, I hear GG is now 'Global' Girl. Gulfstream legal didn't like her use of the company name.
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Dumb move on their part. I mean it's not like she was acting like a Kardashian using that name. Heaven forbid we have a role model for boys and girls alike to look up to who actually followed her dreams.
 
tree96 said:
Dumb move on their part. I mean it's not like she was acting like a Kardashian using that name. Heaven forbid we have a role model for boys and girls alike to look up to who actually followed her dreams.
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Did her dream include luring children into dangerous situations?
 
Flight students seem to be drying up. Our school has gone from a high of 150ish students when I started to 60ish now. Out of those 60 most will either wash out or stop at private. All but one of my friends is still flying. The rest changed majors or moved on with their life.

I'm sitting on 380tt right now. My hope is to have 500tt by the summer so I can move on to other jobs. I'm also shooting for the 1000 R-ATP 14 CFR 61.160(b). If I can make it to a regional and hold a line I'll be happy. But I can't see a airline job for at least 5-8 years realistically. So until then I'm going to do mapping and forestry. Plus the mapping job my friend wants me at is a nice gig. You see the country and get paid salary with a yearly bonus. So I'm going to use that to pay off my student loans or at least make a dent.

I tend to look on the brightside. My dad started in the **** jobs in the TV industry and worked his way to the top. So I have the belief that you have to earn it and be prepared to be a warm body for awhile.

I've already had friends fall into jobs. One has been offered a dept head job at Southwest and he is only 21. Very talented guy but sometimes I wish that was me. :lol:
 
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NoHeat said:
Mr. Darby said regional airlines have boosted pilot recruitment, including offering $5,000-to-$10,000 signing bonuses. Despite that, starting annual pay at most remains low, often $16,000 to $25,000—a bitter pill for a pilot who has paid $75,000 to $150,000 to be trained.
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I haven't bothered to read the article, but this excerpt tosses up some red flags. Kit Darby is in the business of attracting airline wannabes to join his organization and pay him a bunch of money in prep courses and other hiring assistance. If the majority of this article is based on one of his press releases, then it's more of a marketing ploy than anything else.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
There is not a pilot shortage, there is a pay shortage. If they get the pay up, they will have no shortage of readily available pilots who'd be willing.
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Exactly. I have thought about going back... :rolleyes:
I know a lot of perfectly qualified pilots who will not go to the regional s because of the pay and QOL issues. I have known quite a few people including myself who just left because of it.

JGoodish said:
Riiiiight! Neither would the local convenience store if they quit offering $8.75/hour + benefits and started everyone at $100k/year. Of course, then they'd become insolvent and nobody would even have an opportunity for those jobs.
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Except they have an endless pool of unqualified for everything or students to ask you if you want paper or plastic.
 
Airline-Pilot Shortage Arrives Ahead of Schedule

Actually it is a few decades behind schedule.:lol:
 
I browse CFI jobs every day. Very few out there, not seeing a pilot shortage anywhere.

David
 
There's no pilot shortage. There's a shortage of folks willing to roll the dice at a regional. I have no sympathy as it was the majors that constructed the regional system. The regionals have been cutting pay and benefits as they fight to hold on to their contracts with the major carriers. They offer a signing bonus because it's cheaper to pay a one time payment instead of a livable wage.

The day Delta drops it's minimum requirements will be the day there's a shortage.

Yes, I'm an airline pilot. We have 300 pilots on furlough. Most are still either unemployed, under employed or have fled overseas.

There's only one reason to promote the "pilot shortage". That's to roll back the 1500 hr law and to amend FAR 117.
 
jonnyjetprop said:
There's only one reason to promote the "pilot shortage". That's to roll back the 1500 hr law and to amend FAR 117.
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Is there any push from any group or person to push Cognress to roll it back? Like an activist type group? Just curious since there are groups for everything else.

David
 
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