Advice on cloud layer height forecast sources

SFDukie

SFDukie

Line Up and Wait
PoA Supporter
Joined
Mar 4, 2007
Messages
501
Display Name
Don
What are the sources you check for forecast layers? How far out are they reliable?
This is a hole in my knowledge. I’ve searched a bit without finding what I want.
TIA!
 
For predictions of bases and tops several days in advance you can consult Windy but they are only reported from the European model (ECMWF). The NOAA Aviation Weather forecast (formerly known as the GFA) has bases/tops up to 18 hours in advance, which is similar to the TAF. The TAF is the only forecast to my knowledge that gives heights to multiple layers rather than just bases.

You can also roll your own by looking at atmospheric profile or SkewT predictions, specifically heights where temperature and dew point converge. These profile predictions are also available on Windy, and you can switch between the European and US models.
 
The noaa skew-t generator used to be super reliable up to 18 hours out, but that's gone now because.... reasons. The best substitute I've found is https://www.flytheweather.com/ . It will generate forecasts, including skew-ts, out several days. I can't speak to the accuracy beyond 18 hours. The place they're pulling their data from uses several models; no idea which one they give preference if they conflict. My past experience with the longer term forecasts is that you can't make plans beyond taf range.
 
Jim K said:
The noaa skew-t generator used to be super reliable up to 18 hours out, but that's gone now because.... reasons. The best substitute I've found is https://www.flytheweather.com/ . It will generate forecasts, including skew-ts, out several days. I can't speak to the accuracy beyond 18 hours. The place they're pulling their data from uses several models; no idea which one they give preference if they conflict. My past experience with the longer term forecasts is that you can't make plans beyond taf range.
Click to expand...
Yep. I’m using them too.

I don’t trust any long range forecast. I’ve found them not very accurate even for a big picture, let alone detail like cloud heights.
 
midlifeflyer said:
Yep. I’m using them too.

I don’t trust any long range forecast. I’ve found them not very accurate even for a big picture, let alone detail like cloud heights.
Click to expand...
In my experience long range accuracy depends where you are and the type of weather system. That’s one reason I like Windy’s ability to compare different models - you can start to get a handle on forecast uncertainty.
 
AlleyCat67 said:
In my experience long range accuracy depends where you are and the type of weather system. That’s one reason I like Windy’s ability to compare different models - you can start to get a handle on forecast uncertainty.
Click to expand...

You are right - the level of uncertainty depends on where, when, and what. But that's the point. I like Windy but I really don't need it to tell me there are going to be thunderstorms in the southeast in the late spring and autumn in Colorado might not have a cloud within 300 NM.
 
What happened to the Skew-T diagrams? That's what I always used for determining immediate and near-future cloud bases and tops, along with freezing level.
 
MonkeyClaw said:
What happened to the Skew-T diagrams? That's what I always used for determining immediate and near-future cloud bases and tops, along with freezing level.
Click to expand...
https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/com...ple-can’t-see-them.148868/page-3#post-3566793
That's the discussion thread. Eventually we figure out that the .gov decided to remove them because they were considered experimental and they didn't like that people were using them to make operational decisions and/or using them as the basis for paid weather services. The raw data is still available and a few places replicate the functionality of the old rucsoundings page with varying degress of success.
 
This site gives some info. It’s pretty simple to see trends. As far as your question on layers, check it out and see if it helps with what you want.

Kansas City, Missouri Aviation Weather Report and Forecast

The Kansas City, Missouri Aviation Weather Report Forecast, Wind Speed, Wind Direction and Temperatures
www.usairnet.com www.usairnet.com
 
Also remember to use the overcast / ceiling function in Fore Flight before your flight to make adjustments for your route as needed before wheels up.
 
scottd said:
Well, I use the progressive web app I developed. I only provide a forecast for three days. After about 72 hours, the uncertainty is too high to provide a reliable solution.
Click to expand...
Just a suggestion, take it for what it's worth. I'm kinda cheap, and private with my data, which may or may not be a typical thing for pilots. I can only speak for myself. Anyway, first, setup a way for someone to try it without signing up for an account or providing personal info that could be used for marketing purposes. That's a deal breaker for me. Second, I get the idea of a subscription model, but a limited anonymous web version with ads might let you recover costs and make some money while promoting the product. Easy to spend someone else's $, but there's a reason some companies have limited use free versions.

I'll follow up with, yep, I'm cheap. I don't have any subscriptions that aren't required to earn my living or enjoy my hobbies.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top