“GA is dying”

TL;DR: There is no airline ticket cheap enough to make airlines worthwhile for a 200-mile journey. The longer it gets, the better chance you have of airlines making sense, but even really long trips sometimes swing in favor of GA.

___ -> ORD

I had to be be right across the street from O'Hare for a trade show. Landing fee at ORD was like 168, parking was 168 a night. This morning you can get basic Economy for $160 on United out of IND, and $115 out of GRR on American. There are a few exceptions.
 
If GA does any less dying, wont be any place left to park. Going into Florida last winter, I was given a ?4 hour EDCT to enter the state IFR, due to ATC being overwhelmed. Weather was such that VFR was not an option. Was able to negotiate an earlier EDCT, but still delayed. Ramp space, hangars, ATC, FBO's all overwhelmed in many parts of the country. See an avoid ;-)

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TL;DR: There is no airline ticket cheap enough to make airlines worthwhile for a 200-mile journey. The longer it gets, the better chance you have of airlines making sense, but even really long trips sometimes swing in favor of GA.

... if you already have a plane and ability to fly it(certificates, maintenance, insurance, training, currency, time). Factor in cost of obtaining and maintaining that and the picture is very different.

But I do agree, airlines are not the cause of *personal* GA decline. At least not directly. Missions are completely different. Some GA things are simply not possible or practical with airlines. I think a car is a much bigger competition.
 
Not really as there is no comparison between the US and EU private aviation industry. For example, it wasnt until 2020 or so that the EASA even allowed a private aircraft owner to manage the airworthiness of their own aircraft.

Europe has its own set of problems, and hats off to the folks over on EUROGA that seem to make it work.

We often bemoan the issues we have here, like angry neighbors, cost of fuel, expensive hangars and so on, but they have a truly bad set of circumstances to deal with. In the UK, they have a truly bizarre IFR system where a clearance can take you into their version of uncontrolled airspace (OCAS) and then your clearance just evaporates. With no notice. And you need another if you go back into controlled airspace. Lack of airports, what airports they have sometimes bizarre, limited hours, and have mandatory use of handlers, lack of fuel, and a host of other issues. There are some brighter spots, but it amounts to nothing more than park or sport flying in the local area or organized trips. Think the FAA is bad? In their case their CAAs are truly impenetrable.
 
In the UK, they have a truly bizarre IFR system where a clearance can take you into their version of uncontrolled airspace (OCAS) and then your clearance just evaporates. With no notice. And you need another if you go back into controlled airspace. Lack of airports, what airports they have sometimes bizarre, limited hours, and have mandatory use of handlers, lack of fuel, and a host of other issues. There are some brighter spots, but it amounts to nothing more than park or sport flying in the local area or organized trips. Think the FAA is bad? In their case their CAAs are truly impenetrable.

OTOH they get to fly at places like Biggin Hill.
 
___ -> ORD

I had to be be right across the street from O'Hare for a trade show. Landing fee at ORD was like 168, parking was 168 a night. This morning you can get basic Economy for $160 on United out of IND, and $115 out of GRR on American. There are a few exceptions.
True. That said, I've also flown into BWI, MCO, and other primary Bravos because there are rare occasions where they really are the most convenient airport.

If GA does any less dying, wont be any place left to park. Going into Florida last winter, I was given a ?4 hour EDCT to enter the state IFR, due to ATC being overwhelmed. Weather was such that VFR was not an option. Was able to negotiate an earlier EDCT, but still delayed. Ramp space, hangars, ATC, FBO's all overwhelmed in many parts of the country. See an avoid ;-)
Flying a turboprop, you're in a different segment of GA than most of us. You're at altitudes where the thriving part of GA (rich folks in the back of expensive whiny airplanes) is. This has ZERO to do with the health of recreational piston GA.

And Florida doesn't have EDCTs because GA is healthy, Florida has EDCTs because Jax Center is critically understaffed and they just can't move very many airplanes through there.

... if you already have a plane and ability to fly it(certificates, maintenance, insurance, training, currency, time). Factor in cost of obtaining and maintaining that and the picture is very different.
True. The assumption is that you want to fly and have already done those things, and you're looking at the true incremental cost.

When my wife asks "how much will this trip cost for us to fly?" I'm sure not giving her the full cost of ownership divided by the hours flown in a year, because that's not the true story. The first hour I fly each year costs $20,000. The rest of them are about $70.

But I do agree, airlines are not the cause of *personal* GA decline. At least not directly. Missions are completely different. Some GA things are simply not possible or practical with airlines. I think a car is a much bigger competition.
Well, on the lower end maybe. Cars are slow enough that they're not super practical for 800-nm trips. However, the more expensive GA gets, the longer car trips get practical and the shorter airline ones. Once you've got it squeezed down to "car is best below 500 miles" and "airline is best above 600 miles" then unless you take a LOT of 550-mile trips, it no longer makes sense to own the airplane in the first place.
 
But if you hate driving with all the other idiots on the road, and the security theater nonsense of the commercial airport, enough.... owning your own airplane looks like a pretty damn good idea.
 
If GA does any less dying, wont be any place left to park. Going into Florida last winter, I was given a ?4 hour EDCT to enter the state IFR, due to ATC being overwhelmed. Weather was such that VFR was not an option. Was able to negotiate an earlier EDCT, but still delayed. Ramp space, hangars, ATC, FBO's all overwhelmed in many parts of the country. See an avoid ;-)

That's assuming ramp space, hangars, ATC, FBO capacity/investment has remained the same or increased. I haven't dug into stats but I would suspect that is not the case -- at the least ATC personnel shortages have been widely reported recently. And worth making a distinction between recreational GA, which I think the "GA is dying" crowd is referring to, and all other "GA" such as flight training, corporate flying, etc. If the latter has increased it can result in that infrastructure you refer to being overwhelmed, even if recreational GA has been on the downswing.
 
If the latter has increased it can result in that infrastructure you refer to being overwhelmed, even if recreational GA has been on the downswing.
Just follow the FBOs Signature and similar companies have been buying. Once a certain level of commercial or turbine business is noted they will move in and restructure the operation. While pushing the private rec aircraft to the back row and/or upping the fees for their usage of the same facilities. Know of several FBOs that went through this change where one even forced out a small 135 operation from the facility because they weren't a "fit" with the increasing business clientele who were using the FBO facilities. And with Beech's Denali about to hit the flightline to compete against the Pilatus, I would expect more FBOs to go in a similar fashion.
 
Well, on the lower end maybe. Cars are slow enough that they're not super practical for 800-nm trips. However, the more expensive GA gets, the longer car trips get practical and the shorter airline ones. Once you've got it squeezed down to "car is best below 500 miles" and "airline is best above 600 miles" then unless you take a LOT of 550-mile trips, it no longer makes sense to own the airplane in the first place.

This is true. There is a lot of nuance in this something too far for car or too short for airline. What I was getting at is that most of the "airlines stealing from piston GA" happened long time ago.. 80s, 90s. Most people in US don't travel far very often. And most have car. Most trips are shortish.... And so for vast majority of people for most trips car is a go-to instrument. Even if GA plane would be a better fit(see cost and barriers).

Personally, i think it's "dying" because there are far fewer people exposed to it. It's something that you have to "dream" about. And most people outright dismiss it as unattainable even if they think of it at all. As a form of transportation, it's pretty limited and very unreasonable for a person that has never been around piston planes.
 
This is the crux of the matter. Happen to travel in a piston GA often, and can tell you that other than Cirrus and Bonanza in the sky, basically no one is traveling consistently in a piston GA, judged by radios.

Know this is a generalization and someone will chime in with "I travel four times a week," but after forty years the difference is palatable.

Also, after half of century of the same accident being in the paper over and over, I don't think the families and friends of pilots are all that interested in getting a piston four or six seater. Actually, can't blame them. Most pilots never flew enough to be truly proficient anyhow, let alone travel to an unfamiliar place possibly even in the weather.

A while back, I grabbed a number of screenshots from Flightaware, and collated them, I was interested in what percentage of flight activity was training. (training was approximately 55% of traffic) The most common "going places" airplane was always the Skylane. The combination of the SR22 and SR22 turbo was just about equal to the Skylane count. Bonanzas were about half as common as were Cirri, Mooneys were about half as common as the Bonanzas, and the two most popular twins, Cessna's 310 and Beechcraft's Baron were about as popular as Mooneys.
 
This is true. There is a lot of nuance in this something too far for car or too short for airline. What I was getting at is that most of the "airlines stealing from piston GA" happened long time ago.. 80s, 90s. Most people in US don't travel far very often. And most have car. Most trips are shortish.... And so for vast majority of people for most trips car is a go-to instrument. Even if GA plane would be a better fit(see cost and barriers).
Time is limited. Our work fetish in the US means many people have no paid vacation, many more have only 2 weeks per year, etc... And without an airplane to travel in, most folks aren't going very far for a day or a weekend, they're staying within the range of their cars.

I always tell people that a GA airplane turns a weekend trip into a day trip, and a week-long trip into a weekend trip. The Skylane/DA40 I used to fly in the club were 3x faster than driving normally, the Mooney is 4x faster.

I do wonder whether, in the 70s heyday of GA, more people traveled farther? GA was certainly more accessible back then, but there were higher requirements for instrument ratings, navigation was done via VOR and NDB instead of GPS, and there was no in-cockpit weather like we have now. GPS and ADS-B have drastically transformed personal flying - When used correctly, it's now safer and easier to travel via GA than ever before. I would expect that the answer is still that the absolute number of people using GA for travel was higher back then, but the proportion of pilots using it that way was somewhat lower.
 
Time is limited. Our work fetish in the US means many people have no paid vacation, many more have only 2 weeks per year, etc... And without an airplane to travel in, most folks aren't going very far for a day or a weekend, they're staying within the range of their cars.

I always tell people that a GA airplane turns a weekend trip into a day trip, and a week-long trip into a weekend trip. The Skylane/DA40 I used to fly in the club were 3x faster than driving normally, the Mooney is 4x faster.

Again, all true :).

The combined problem is that for someone new to come and look at getting a new/near new plane to actually fulfill this mission, it can only be a very high income individual. 1MM+ for SR22 and some 50K/year to run the thing. At that point, 135 makes more sense.

So you are now dealing with old planes, people that are comfortable with those old planes. Explaining to a very rich person new to piston GA why a 60yo Mooney is best travel plane is a tough ask. 135 looks a lot better.
 
Point that I am trying to make rather awkwardly is that there is a very small venn diagram intersection where incomes, desires, mission, time, costs, weather and other things intersect to make piston GA an actually preferred method of transportation for a newcomer. Just about everything can be done by some other means simpler or cheaper or more reliably or better. Or simply not done.
 
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And as a personal anecdote. I rent. I do have a mission that would be impossible to do any way other than *piston* GA. I fly that mission 1-3 times per year. It's nice, but completely not critical. If i lost ability to fly, I'd stop doing THAT mission and do something slightly less good by car or airline. I do that mission because I can fly. I would absolutely not start flying because I need to do that mission.

I got my PPC back in my 20s because I dreamed and I wanted. And it took me years to find actual missions that make sense. I would NOT take that journey today. Couldn't do it.
 
Their is no such thing as a cheap aircraft, many first time owners find that out the hard way. GA aircraft loss every year is more that the new ones to replace what is lost, poor maintenance, bad pilots, weather or other factors, the loss rate of aircraft will exhaust GA at some point. The home built side is growing but not everyone is willing to go that route or buy a used one.
 
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Point that I am trying to make rather awkwardly is that there is a very small venn diagram intersection where incomes, desires, mission, time, costs, weather and other things intersect to make piston GA an actually preferred method of transportation for a newcomer. Just about everything can be done by some other means simpler or cheaper or more reliably or better. Or simply not done.

True.

@StraightnLevel recently went through this trade and it might be interesting to hear his thoughts and how he settled on a Bo.
 
GA aircraft loss every year is more that the new ones to replace what is lost
Can anyone quantify this? It's been posted multiple times, and the rise in aircraft values (supply and demand) certainly suggest it's possible. But is it really that numbers are falling? Or that ownership desire is rising? Or something else?
 
True.

@StraightnLevel recently went through this trade and it might be interesting to hear his thoughts and how he settled on a Bo.
Good question!

Range and speed are important to me, so a Bonanza with tip tanks (94 gal total usable) is about as strong an option as exists in SEP-world. For my normal MKE-HOU "commute", it's significantly faster than flying direct (no direct options) and gives me schedule control.

Put another way, I'm fed up with commercial air travel and couldn't afford a TBM, Epic, or VisionJet.
 
Can anyone quantify this?
Its difficult to quantify because there are limited data sets for aircraft that are voluntarily scrapped, weather scrapped, or simply parked. However, a number of OEMs maintain a listing a serial numbers that they have confirmed are destroyed in some fashion. For example, I do know that Bell Helicopter lists at least 8-10 206 series helicopters as destroyed every year which they stopped producing 10 years ago. So those numbers are declining at a steady rate.
 
Range and speed are important to me, so a Bonanza with tip tanks (94 gal total usable) is about as strong an option as exists in SEP-world.
Wow, that is... a lot. Do you find that you fly 6-7 hours without stopping (and by yourself or with passengers)? Obvious question - how do you handle those annoying biological needs?

Edit - or does this simply save you some refueling annoyances during the stops that you do make?
 
Wow, that is... a lot. Do you find that you fly 6-7 hours without stopping (and by yourself or with passengers)? Obvious question - how do you handle those annoying biological needs?
Gatorade bottle or portable urinal comes to mind. That’s what I do if needed. Whats so hard about that?
 
Wow, that is... a lot. Do you find that you fly 6-7 hours without stopping (and by yourself or with passengers)? Obvious question - how do you handle those annoying biological needs?

Edit - or does this simply save you some refueling annoyances during the stops that you do make?
It depends on the wind. T41-KETB can be non-stop running LOP with a tailwind. Otherwise it's a fuel stop midway, running ROP to get some speed back.

I have a strong tolerance for long drive/flight times, and tend to drive a full tank of fuel in a car as well. My wife sleeps, so it doesn't bother her when she's traveling with me...but the plane is really more for me to get between properties and business locations.
 
It depends on the wind. T41-KETB can be non-stop running LOP with a tailwind. Otherwise it's a fuel stop midway, running ROP to get some speed back.

I have a strong tolerance for long drive/flight times, and tend to drive a full tank of fuel in a car as well. My wife sleeps, so it doesn't bother her when she's traveling with me...but the plane is really more for me to get between properties and business locations.
How do you handle winter weather?
To have a all weather piston aircraft ups the costs substantially. I know pick your weather but business wise you got to go when yo have to go weather be damned.
 
The combined problem is that for someone new to come and look at getting a new/near new plane to actually fulfill this mission, it can only be a very high income individual. 1MM+ for SR22 and some 50K/year to run the thing. At that point, 135 makes more sense.
Old airplanes fly just as well as new ones. There is a certain curve of maintenance cost (and time and hassle) vs. acquisition cost for sure, and people seem to just choose where they want and need to be on that curve and make it work.

However, as the fleet gets older and more expensive to maintain, and new airplanes just get more expensive, it's going to price more and more people out.

Point that I am trying to make rather awkwardly is that there is a very small venn diagram intersection where incomes, desires, mission, time, costs, weather and other things intersect to make piston GA an actually preferred method of transportation for a newcomer. Just about everything can be done by some other means simpler or cheaper or more reliably or better. Or simply not done.
Yep. And I think the Venn diagram for warbirds illustrates it even better - They're more expensive, less practical, and there's a very few people in the world who can afford the time and money that they take. You have to really want it. All of GA except airline training will go that way eventually.

Is this true?

I guess I could submit this question to AI, but what is the fun in that?
median human age is around 30
And the median GA airplane age is approaching 50.
 
Old airplanes fly just as well as new ones. There is a certain curve of maintenance cost (and time and hassle) vs. acquisition cost for sure, and people seem to just choose where they want and need to be on that curve and make it work.

However, as the fleet gets older and more expensive to maintain, and new airplanes just get more expensive, it's going to price more and more people out.


Yep. And I think the Venn diagram for warbirds illustrates it even better - They're more expensive, less practical, and there's a very few people in the world who can afford the time and money that they take. You have to really want it. All of GA except airline training will go that way eventually.



And the median GA airplane age is approaching 50.
And I strongly suspect airline training will (when it has to because the pipeline of tradition piston single pilots dries up) will be ab inito simulator trained.

~10 years ago I was at a training software symposium and got to spend 1/2 hour or so with the director of training for Delta. I was pitching a tablet based VR preflight trainer that we built. He was quite savvy about both the tech and the training. He told me that for Delta at that point, the first flight in a real airplane their pilots got was a revenue flight with passengers aboard. All training was in the sims. All training. And that was 10 years ago.
 
And I strongly suspect airline training will (when it has to because the pipeline of tradition piston single pilots dries up) will be ab inito simulator trained.
I don't think it'll ever be 1500 hours in the sim. There's enough big flight schools buying enough new Cessnas to keep that going, and there's no substitute for the real thing. Right now, only 100 of the 1500 ATP hours may be in a sim. 61.159(a)(6).

By the time there aren't any training airplanes, the airlines won't be using pilots.

~10 years ago I was at a training software symposium and got to spend 1/2 hour or so with the director of training for Delta. I was pitching a tablet based VR preflight trainer that we built. He was quite savvy about both the tech and the training. He told me that for Delta at that point, the first flight in a real airplane their pilots got was a revenue flight with passengers aboard. All training was in the sims. All training. And that was 10 years ago.
It's been like that for much longer than 10 years. I think it's been more like 30-40.
 
How do you handle winter weather?
To have a all weather piston aircraft ups the costs substantially. I know pick your weather but business wise you got to go when yo have to go weather be damned.
Simple - Delta. I keep a 1st class refundable ticket open, and roll it to my next trip when I fly myself. I do enough international travel that I maintain Diamond status, so they don't get uptight with my approach. I also don't attempt to fly myself when timing is crucial.
 
And I strongly suspect airline training will (when it has to because the pipeline of tradition piston single pilots dries up) will be ab inito simulator trained.
And that's imo what's gonna eventually kill piston rec aviation. The sector rides the logisitcs/support coat-tails of the for-revenue piston trainer fleet nationwide. Once that business case dries up, goodnight irene for fac built rec piston. There will also be a much more compelling case to kill it by airspace denial proxy, as recreationals don't have the lobby pull flight training (and their airline benefactors) does. This is what largely neuters the utility of GA in the Eurozone (airspace denial, both direct and economic-indirect).

He told me that for Delta at that point, the first flight in a real airplane their pilots got was a revenue flight with passengers aboard. All training was in the sims. All training. And that was 10 years ago.
What people forget about outfits like DL et al is that by and large, majors hire people who were turbine captains in a prior life. Their inputs are not ab initios in any sense of the word. Even regionals hire folks with the imposition of 1500 hours. Heck, before the lost decade their competitive mins were closer to 2500, for a turboprop. And when they didn't hire 1500ers (the bad old days of Gulfstream academy), they had seeing eye dog Captains in the left seat who did (much as I disagree with the regional de facto single pilot OJT shtick with revenue pax in the back, see Endeavor Canada croc roll landing). The only folks with the street cred to claim ab initio are the European and Asian carriers, and the record (at least on the latter) is spotty.

The USAF is getting in trouble with that, since they latched on to the idea they can treat military accessions like a regional airline training department. Except our accessions are true neophytes, even our PICs at times have less than 500 hours total, with a brand new co-rocket with less than 200 turbine hours as a student and none in the airplane in question, and then you add tactical employment (air refueling, night, NVG, threat defense)? lulz, FAFO.
By the time there aren't any training airplanes, the airlines won't be using pilots.
Nah, MPL is a thing in Europe for a while now, it can happen in the US as well.
 
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