“GA is dying”

Same in Florida. And not just trainers. Plenty of folks flying just for fun and for personal transportation. Starting in late October, our weekly group will start back up, with at least 40 showing up every Thursday until mid-May, and some fly-ins will get well over 100 planes coming in. And during fall and winter, every airport with a restaurant has a pretty full ramp every morning.

GA is alive and healthy.
 
I had numerous aircraft near me cruising along the FL coastline yesterday. As we got close to the Tampa area we were looking for close by traffic we saw on ADS-B every couple minutes.
 
Hey @Half Fast , I heard yesterday that Winter Haven is getting a remote tower from Bartow soon. Thoughts?
 
Ed Haywood said:
Hey @Half Fast , I heard yesterday that Winter Haven is getting a remote tower from Bartow soon. Thoughts?
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In the works but "soon" is a matter of perspective.

I was at the airport advisory board last month and I asked the airport director about the schedule. His best estimate was sometime between mid 2026 and mid 2027. I interpreted that as mid 2028 at best.
 
hindsight2020 said:
*yawn* self selection bias run amok. Same as the crowd who thinks the girl hanging from the pole thinks you're legit cute, or that OSH is a microcosm of recreational GA. Another year of "attendance record-breaking!" too, shocker.

Maybe they can hire the now-former BLS director, just got fired for the imprudence of telling the truth lol.
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Crank (lol!). Let us have some fun.

Just landed at SAT.
 
Just because you can zoom out in a busy metro area and see a bunch of trainers doesn't mean GA isn't dying.

We have more trainer traffic now because PILOT SHORTAGE! has been beat into everyone's head for long enough that now there's actually a surplus and the pipeline is completely clogged, but that isn't stopping new hopefuls. We're going to be back to the ugly early 2000s here pretty soon - There are even pay-to-fly "opportunities" showing up again.

Meanwhile, it's dang near impossible to find a good A&P, prices for new airplanes are in the zone where only the top 5% can even think about it, Hartzell is buying up half the industry and doubling their prices, and the long-term trend is toward non-pilot urban air mobility and airlines drowning out what's left of GA. It won't be completely dead in my lifetime, but I don't think my kids will be able to enjoy it and use it the way I have. :(
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Just because you can zoom out in a busy metro area and see a bunch of trainers doesn't mean GA isn't dying.

We have more trainer traffic now because PILOT SHORTAGE! has been beat into everyone's head for long enough that now there's actually a surplus and the pipeline is completely clogged, but that isn't stopping new hopefuls. We're going to be back to the ugly early 2000s here pretty soon - There are even pay-to-fly "opportunities" showing up again.

Meanwhile, it's dang near impossible to find a good A&P, prices for new airplanes are in the zone where only the top 5% can even think about it, Hartzell is buying up half the industry and doubling their prices, and the long-term trend is toward non-pilot urban air mobility and airlines drowning out what's left of GA. It won't be completely dead in my lifetime, but I don't think my kids will be able to enjoy it and use it the way I have. :(
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Sadly I have to agree with you. The biggest issue to me is that these 70s airframes ARE going to be worn out at some point, and they aren't being replaced. At some point, the critical mass needed to support the avgas infrastructure will no longer exist.

I suppose it's like horses. They're still around and some people are really into them, but nobody is taking them across the country. Hitching posts aren't a thing anymore, nor are there stables and farriers in every town.

It makes me sad when I think about it, so i try not to. Who knows. Maybe mosaic will save us. Maybe van's or a partner can spool up and start producing rv-10 LSA's for something approaching a reasonable price. Not holding my breath though, labor costs being what they are. I do think they intend to start cranking out rv-15s, hence the pop rivet construction like the 12. Every little bit helps. Possible they could design a reasonable traveling machine that is less labor intensive to build.

I'm just glad I get to be part of it, even if we are running on fumes.
 
Jim K said:
Sadly I have to agree with you. The biggest issue to me is that these 70s airframes ARE going to be worn out at some point, and they aren't being replaced. At some point, the critical mass needed to support the avgas infrastructure will no longer exist.
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Yup. That's really the biggest thing, and I completely failed to mention it. The average GA airplane is older than I am, and in spite of the ability of the human body to heal itself, I'm getting worn and creaky! In fact, the average airplane is older than the average human. :o

I've been looking at twins a lot lately, and twins haven't had the revitalization that singles have had - Cirrus doesn't sell any, the rise of the single-engine turboprop has all but killed the new twin market, and piston twins really never came back after GARA. With the exception of the Diamond DA42 and DA62 and the Tecnam twins (which are both slotted into niche markets and unlikely to be purchased by private owners), there haven't been any new certified twins, and only a relative handful of Barons, Senecas, and Seminoles have been produced in the last 40 years.

It paints a very ugly picture. Twin Comanches still sell for a relative premium because they're cheap-ish to operate and there's still a little bit of a trainer market out there. Barons are doing OK, the Beech mystique is still there... But for everything else, it seems like there's a small number - Say, 20-30% - that have been reasonably well updated and maintained, and the rest are ratty old birds that need paint and interior and avionics and who knows how many squawks there are to deal with... And even a lot of the nicer ones have values that are mostly in their engines and avionics, which means that after you fly them another thousand hours over a decade, most of that value will be gone.

When it's no longer possible to maintain a traveling airplane to a standard that allows for reliable travel, even if it does technically fly it's not really worth it any more... And with the prices of new airplanes being what they are and the supply of used airplanes drying up, the cost of this hobby is going to accelerate upwards, pushing more and more people out. And the infrastructure is already getting pretty thin. Fuel is still available in a lot of places, but it's getting increasingly hard to find shops - Mechanics are either working on cars or airliners because both are easier and pay significantly better.

Jim K said:
I suppose it's like horses. They're still around and some people are really into them, but nobody is taking them across the country. Hitching posts aren't a thing anymore, nor are there stables and farriers in every town.
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An excellent yet very sad analogy.

Jim K said:
It makes me sad when I think about it, so i try not to. Who knows. Maybe mosaic will save us. Maybe van's or a partner can spool up and start producing rv-10 LSA's for something approaching a reasonable price. Not holding my breath though, labor costs being what they are. I do think they intend to start cranking out rv-15s, hence the pop rivet construction like the 12. Every little bit helps. Possible they could design a reasonable traveling machine that is less labor intensive to build.
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The one glimmer of hope is that manufacturing machines are getting ever cheaper and more accessible. It's possible that in the near future there will be airplane "plans" that can be purchased, instead of in the form of blueprints, in the form of STL/GCode type files that one can plug into their home CNC and 3D printer and have raw materials made into parts. In fact, you could have the same design be factory built, kit-built, or "raw materials homebuilt" where the kit parts are created with home CNC mills.

MOSAIC does give a little more hope for something like this. FAA certification difficulties combined with the dwindling market have created the current situation where there's very little happening in the way of new aircraft designs. I fear that it's still too little, too late.

Jim K said:
I'm just glad I get to be part of it, even if we are running on fumes.
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That's for sure... We are the luckiest of the lucky. Mankind has dreamed of flight since the dawn of time, and we are the ones who are lucky enough to live in a time and place, in the cosmic blink of an eye, where the conditions that allow us to fly are possible.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
When it's no longer possible to maintain a traveling airplane to a standard that allows for reliable travel, even if it does technically fly it's not really worth it any more...
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This is the crux of the matter. Happen to travel in a piston GA often, and can tell you that other than Cirrus and Bonanza in the sky, basically no one is traveling consistently in a piston GA, judged by radios.

Know this is a generalization and someone will chime in with "I travel four times a week," but after forty years the difference is palatable.

Also, after half of century of the same accident being in the paper over and over, I don't think the families and friends of pilots are all that interested in getting a piston four or six seater. Actually, can't blame them. Most pilots never flew enough to be truly proficient anyhow, let alone travel to an unfamiliar place possibly even in the weather.
 
Steamflyer said:
This is the crux of the matter. Happen to travel in a piston GA often, and can tell you that other than Cirrus and Bonanza in the sky, basically no one is traveling consistently in a piston GA, judged by radios.

Know this is a generalization and someone will chime in with "I travel four times a week," but after forty years the difference is palatable.

Also, after half of century of the same accident being in the paper over and over, I don't think the families and friends of pilots are all that interested in getting a piston four or six seater. Actually, can't blame them. Most pilots never flew enough to be truly proficient anyhow, let alone travel to an unfamiliar place possibly even in the weather.
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I watch adsb traffic between South Florida and the bahamas. Lot of part 135 traffic. A lot of old piston twins. Most are 70’s and 80’s models. Makes me sad to see worn out 50 year old airplanes being used simply because there are no affordable new piston twins available.
 
bonefishpete said:
I watch adsb traffic between South Florida and the bahamas. Lot of part 135 traffic. A lot of old piston twins. Most are 70’s and 80’s models. Makes me sad to see worn out 50 year old airplanes being used simply because there are no affordable new piston twins available.
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In the 70s and 80s new piston twins probably wouldn’t have been affordable, either. Those (or similar) operators probably would’ve been flying WWII surplus.
 
bonefishpete said:
I watch adsb traffic between South Florida and the bahamas. Lot of part 135 traffic. A lot of old piston twins. Most are 70’s and 80’s models. Makes me sad to see worn out 50 year old airplanes being used simply because there are no affordable new piston twins available.
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Use case fits - relatively short hops across water, so get an old twin. A new twin would fit geographically, but probably be cost prohibitive. Cape Air uses the same model. Neither of these use cases is owner flown GA.

GA aircraft are low-run basically model-shop construction items. Ford made more F-150s last year than there have ever been GA produced since the beginning of time.
 
ateamer said:
Same in Florida. And not just trainers. Plenty of folks flying just for fun and for personal transportation. Starting in late October, our weekly group will start back up, with at least 40 showing up every Thursday until mid-May, and some fly-ins will get well over 100 planes coming in. And during fall and winter, every airport with a restaurant has a pretty full ramp every morning.

GA is alive and healthy.
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Yeah VNC has been very busy every day, definitely lot of trainers here but plenty of other traffic too. "Healthy" is subjective but GA definitely is still alive and even at the current rate with all the well known current "issues" it won't be dying any time soon.
 
Steamflyer said:
This is the crux of the matter. Happen to travel in a piston GA often, and can tell you that other than Cirrus and Bonanza in the sky, basically no one is traveling consistently in a piston GA, judged by radios.
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bonefishpete said:
I watch adsb traffic between South Florida and the bahamas. Lot of part 135 traffic. A lot of old piston twins. Most are 70’s and 80’s models. Makes me sad to see worn out 50 year old airplanes being used simply because there are no affordable new piston twins available.
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I'm a little confused - am I supposed to be worried because older planes are being used, or that they aren't being used?
:p
 
ateamer said:
GA is alive and healthy wealthy.
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We bought 1972 Cessna 182 in 1982 (10 years old) with NDH, mid time engine, King avionics including autopilot, DME, and a high end loran for $26,000. Today a relatively comparable 2005 182 (20 years old) sells for $395,000. The value of a dollar increased by about 325% between 1982 and 2024 vs a 1500% increase in cost for the airplane.
 
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It isn't dying. Day before last I was up at Beaver Island (KSJX). Though VFR at the surface, at 5K vis was < 1 mile. At 3K it was maybe 2 miles and out over the water you can't tell squat.

Minn Center was swamped- handed off from Traverse City Approach, I could NOT get in to Minn center for the approach. EVERYBODY and his brother was out there. I had to go BACK to Traverse City, ask him to call the guy on the landline and then he'd take my radio check-on.

B
 
Kinder said:
Cheap airline tickets are what really is killing GA.
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:yeahthat::yeahthat::yeahthat:

I can remember in college in the mid-80's, a round trip ticket on Delta from Atlanta to NYC cost around 200 bucks.

Today the same ticket costs around 200 bucks.
 
Ed Haywood said:
:yeahthat::yeahthat::yeahthat:

I can remember in college in the mid-80's, a round trip ticket on Delta from Atlanta to NYC cost around 200 bucks.

Today the same ticket costs around 200 bucks.
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And in the mid 80s airline deregulation had already kicked in. Wonder what the cost was in the mid 70s?
 
GA overall is diminishing in affordability and practicality for many common folks that at one point considered the discretionary spending easy to justify. Just like everything else in this economy, if you have the means to deal with the ever increasing costs, then you think all is fine. Or, if you are viewing thru the lens of flight training or flying for HNWI (that’s still GA flying) or businesses, things look fine. Limit manufacturers liability even more, increase production, limit outrageous law suits, get local governments to think straight about GA, reduce fuel prices. Then GA for the common person can be stable and even revive some.

As far as volume of aircraft in the skies at any given time, each location is different. Ignoring the flight training traffic for the career minded will reduce flying in a lot of locations. I see that in a lot of the places I go. When it comes to ATC, it’s not easy to know how large the sectors are that an individual controller is handling. What may appear super busy might just be several sectors bundled into one.

If we had real good data to review it would be easy to see what is really happening.
 
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bbchien said:
It isn't dying. Day before last I was up at Beaver Island (KSJX). Though VFR at the surface, at 5K vis was < 1 mile. At 3K it was maybe 2 miles and out over the water you can't tell squat.
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Just missed you! I'm camping at North Fox and was over there for groceries that same day...
 
FWIW: the main issue with discussions on GA is that GA is so diverse. In reality, GA is booming for a majority of users but unfortunately has been declining on the Part 91 private recreational side for quite some time. Just look to the initial docs concerning the reasons behind GARA, AGATE, LSA/Sport Pilot, P-NC, and MOSAIC.

And IMO a better method to track the decline of Part 91 private market is to follow the support side. Theres been a significant shift away from that market on support side for the past 25+ years. Regardless, its not just the old aircraft, increased costs, etc that are driving this decline but new technologies, etc that have captured peoples attention and money vs learning how to privately fly a old 172 or PA28.
 
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Since it's 218 pages, can we get a more current version of this thesis first? :D
 
After reading the report, YES the airlines are one of the major causes of the decline of GA
 
Kinder said:
Cheap airline tickets are what really is killing GA.
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And the interstate highway system, which beats GA for shorter trips. Before the interstates, even a J-3 Cub could be a more attractive travel solution for trips of a few hundred miles than driving on local roads, in cars that weren't nearly as comfortable and reliable as today's. And every town of any size had an airport that Cub could land at.
 
I wonder if we are going the way of GA in Europe. My understanding is that there is a GA community there but nobody really takes 1000m jaunts there., they stay around the home drome. Seems similar here.
 
MauleSkinner said:
In the 70s and 80s new piston twins probably wouldn’t have been affordable, either. Those (or similar) operators probably would’ve been flying WWII surplus.
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Your wrong. My FBO ran a air taxi business in the 70's and 80's with new or year old Piper Navajo and Piper Lances. Those planes are 40-50 year old now. Plenty of owner flown Navajo's back then.
 
cruiserandmax said:
We bought 1972 Cessna 182 in 1982 (10 years old) with NDH, mid time engine, King avionics including autopilot, DME, and a high end loran for $26,000. Today a relatively comparable 2005 182 (20 years old) sells for $395,000. The value of a dollar increased by about 325% between 1982 and 2024 vs a 1500% increase in cost for the airplane.
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Bought a 1977 Cessna 182 that was 6 years old well equipped with 1100 TT for 27k.
Remember the salesman telling me I had a good 5 years use with it. Meaning in 5 years it would be runout and time for a newer model. Trained in a year old C150 with 300tt.
Young people don't know what the time was like.

My son just got his ppl and had to fly 25 year old C172's.
The one he took me up in had 9000+ tt and it was rough.
 
Iflydogs said:
I wonder if we are going the way of GA in Europe
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Not really as there is no comparison between the US and EU private aviation industry. For example, it wasnt until 2020 or so that the EASA even allowed a private aircraft owner to manage the airworthiness of their own aircraft.
 
Steamflyer said:
This is the crux of the matter. Happen to travel in a piston GA often, and can tell you that other than Cirrus and Bonanza in the sky, basically no one is traveling consistently in a piston GA, judged by radios.
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I do nearly all of my traveling in my Mooney... But there's a whole lot more 60s and 70s Mooneys out there than 90s Mooneys like mine.

Steamflyer said:
Also, after half of century of the same accident being in the paper over and over, I don't think the families and friends of pilots are all that interested in getting a piston four or six seater. Actually, can't blame them. Most pilots never flew enough to be truly proficient anyhow, let alone travel to an unfamiliar place possibly even in the weather.
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There's definitely very few GA pilots that go to the lengths necessary to make travel by GA feasible. While an instrument rating isn't technically required, I would argue that in most cases it's necessary - And it seems like a lack of experience going places leads to people not gaining much experience going places!

Kinder said:
Cheap airline tickets are what really is killing GA.
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Disagree. For the most part, the mission is different.

If I'm going <100 miles from home, the car pretty much always makes the most sense, unless the place I need to travel to is on an airport.
100-200 miles, it depends on how close I'm going to an airport and whether or not ground transportation is available at nearby airports, but GA starts to be a better solution in terms of time (still not money).

At the other end of the spectrum, when going >1000 miles it generally makes more sense to fly airlines. GA trips longer than 1000 miles are generally going to require a fuel stop (or two, depending on what you're flying) and take several hours, and costs start to get up there too. However, this isn't universally true - In 2019 I flew the Mooney to Seattle because it was cheaper than airline tickets for the family ($800 a pop at that point). And like with driving, there's a transitional range of maybe 800-1000 miles where the decision could go either way based on the destination's proximity to an airline airport and the GA services available.

However, in the 200-800 mile range, GA really shines. I can get there faster *and* cheaper than the airlines, and on my own schedule. I can get there WAY faster than driving, and while it may not be cheaper, sometimes it is if driving would require an extra night or two in a hotel. But airline flights in that range aren't often cheap or convenient when all of the BS you have to deal with when flying airlines is taken into consideration.

TL;DR: There is no airline ticket cheap enough to make airlines worthwhile for a 200-mile journey. The longer it gets, the better chance you have of airlines making sense, but even really long trips sometimes swing in favor of GA.
 
bonefishpete said:
Your wrong. My FBO ran an air taxi business in the 70's and 80's with new or year old Piper Navajo and Piper Lances. Those planes are 40-50 year old now. Plenty of owner flown Navajo's back then.
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between south Florida and the Bahamas?
 
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