I’m calling the peak

New mortgages are at a 28 year low evidently
 
What plane did you sell? How much if I could ask?
 
Skymac said:
Doesn’t even make sense…

It may not be a fact but not far from it.
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You must have meant “the number of people getting mortgages are at a 28 year low”.

I thought you meant that RATES were at a 28 year low. My bad!
 
Judging by the ads I am seeing on Barnstormers, it looks like asking prices are finally starting to come down. I see a lot of REDUCED, and MAKE REASONABLE OFFER in ads. Of course there are still a lot of sellers living in LaLa Land based on asking prices for planes with runout engines and avionics from the 70’s. I say give it another 6 months and prices will be down even further. (Time to get your cash ready to go!)
 
I’ve seen 3 clapped out 70’s 172’s this morning for all over $125k. Horrid avionics, high time etc.

I own 3 myself and while it’s nice to see that, it’s also beyond unreasonable. If people would just stop buying the ****, it would correct itself.
 
Ed Haywood said:
This thread is 18 months old. If we keep predicting it, sooner or later we'll be right. Or not.
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To be fair this thread has sort of morphed from "calling the peak" to "predicting the decline", two different objectives.
It achieved it's first objective of calling the peak within +/- 2 quarters. Prices haven't really increased on aircraft since last year...

Predicting the decline is proving a bit more challenging!
 
TCABM said:
If within a hair of $200K for an early F model isn’t a fire sale, I don’t know what is.

www.trade-a-plane.com

1968 MOONEY M20F Single Engine Piston for sale - 2421026

1968 MOONEY M20F Single Engine Piston for sale located in Gilbert SC from 2421026. Search 1000's of Aircraft listings updated daily from 100's of dealers & private sellers.
www.trade-a-plane.com www.trade-a-plane.com
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Well, it's pretty much got everything. Full garmin stack with a 3X touch, STEC30, stormscope, speed mods, low engine time, maxwell rebuilt gear. Oh, and "Two cup holders".
 
....70s Archers and Cardinals are now being sold for $150k+. Those were in the $100k-$120k range last spring and even cheaper when this thread started. I don't think this curve has a local maxima...
 
Insurance prices certainly aren’t coming down. Just another contributing factor.
 
People are going to run out of money in October. According to the federal reserve.
 
Morgan3820 said:
People are going to run out of money in October. According to the federal reserve.
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surely all those graphs can't be accurate..........everything is great! the economy is great! everything is wonderful!

:vomit:
 
eman1200 said:
surely all those graphs can't be accurate..........everything is great! the economy is great! everything is wonderful!

:vomit:
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That is what I thought! I know that the AirBB rates have gone up a lot for next summer's rental in the mountains.
 
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Just one (very small) data point. I have been, when work allows, recording how many SE planes are for sale on TAP and controller. Total planes listed.

I started on March 8th. There was 1443 for sale on TAP, and 823 on controller. Today, it was 2376 and 1560. I dont have a years worth of data, so seasonal swings could be the reason.

I also did fuel prices, starting on 4/20 (heh). Avgas was 6.14, Jet A was 6.26 and Mogas was 4.26 then. Today's was 6.55, 6.26 and 5.30. https://www.airnav.com/fuel/report.html
 
Price will inversely follow inventory. That much is sure. Just a question of how much it lags.
 
Morgan3820 said:
I know that the AirBB rates have gone up a lot for next summer's rental in the mountains.
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Well that's news to me. Of course we have automated pricing turned on for our Airbnb's.
 
I saw this in a TAP ad today for a Piper Malibu that's been listed forever: "Oil change -- 4 hours since oil/filter change".
... I guess we're at that part in the market cycle where including how fresh the current oil is is expected to impact its resale value?
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
I saw this in a TAP ad today for a Piper Malibu that's been listed forever: "Oil change -- 4 hours since oil/filter change".
... I guess we're at that part in the market cycle where including how fresh the current oil is is expected to impact its resale value?
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….Air freshener replaced weekly….
 
The thing you have to watch with counts is, if there are high prices, then some people will list to see if they can get that high dollar for their plane. They don't intend to sell unless they get those high dollars.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
I saw this in a TAP ad today for a Piper Malibu that's been listed forever: "Oil change -- 4 hours since oil/filter change".
... I guess we're at that part in the market cycle where including how fresh the current oil is is expected to impact its resale value?
Click to expand...
Done to hide the fact it is making metal...
 
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