Cessna 210 Crash - Payson, AZ - 4 Dead

[bnt83]

Is anyone else bothered by the idea that you can be openly tracked on FlightAware by your ADS-B signal alone?

Not really, should help make up for the lack of a 406 ELT in my case

 

[N747JB]

Is anyone else bothered by the idea that you can be openly tracked on FlightAware by your ADS-B signal alone?

I like that I can now track my son's VFR flights, but I didn't know about it until today!

 

[N747JB]

Go into your account on FA, scroll down to section 6, select show "position only flights". Now you will be able to see any flight where you have a squawk.

That's great!! Thanks!!

 

[Fearless Tower]

Wow...so this guy took off at NIGHT on pretty much a moonless night...let alone to Telluride Colorado which is swamped with mountains...and it was pretty hard IFR in Payson...with his family...WOW.

No. The media was reporting it happened at night because that's when the search started.

He departed at 9 in the morning.

 

[Fearless Tower]

I'm just spitballing here (trying to understand the decision making that would lead to something like this) that the pilot knew that Payson was LIFR at the time of departure, but thought he could climb above the layer and proceed and then (trying to stay VFR and/or out of ice) he descended into terrain.

What I wonder is if he had any kind of iPad/ForeFlight or portable GPS with terrain warnings. It is hard to imagine anyone flying around GA cross-country these days without it. At what point does a pilot continue to proceed into the red stuff and not turn back?

 

[N747JB]

I'm just spitballing here (trying to understand the decision making that would lead to something like this) that the pilot knew that Payson was LIFR at the time of departure, but thought he could climb above the layer and proceed and then (trying to stay VFR and/or out of ice) he descended into terrain.

What I wonder is if he had any kind of iPad/ForeFlight or portable GPS with terrain warnings. It is hard to imagine anyone flying around GA cross-country these days without it. At what point does a pilot continue to proceed into the red stuff and not turn back?

That is the strange thing about a lot of these crashes, it seems like such an obviously bad decision. It's not like the weather was OK, not perfect and he flew too far and got himself trapped. He took off into the muck.

 

[Fearless Tower]

That is the strange thing about a lot of these crashes, it seems like such an obviously bad decision. It's not like the weather was OK, not perfect and he flew too far and got himself trapped. He took off into the muck.

Exactly. In relation to another recent thread, I've done a few VFR flights that some might call 'scud running'. Flying toward rising terrain in MVFR conditions. But, when the yellow Xs on the Garmin start turning red and I don't have a known out…..I'm out of there and have no qualms about turning around. The red X's don't lie.

 

[CC268]

No. The media was reporting it happened at night because that's when the search started.

He departed at 9 in the morning.

Oh yea your right I misread that.

Funny...this has popped up on my Facebook feed multiple times from numerous news sites. The comments people make are so ridiculous lol

 

[labbadabba]

So, is this the 3rd non-IR pilot this week with a VMC-IMC accident?

 

[arkvet]

Is anyone else bothered by the idea that you can be openly tracked on FlightAware by your ADS-B signal alone?

So are you saying that once I install the GTX345 that all of my flights will show up on FlightAware regardless if I am on FF / talking to ATC?

 

[N747JB]

So are you saying that once I install the GTX345 that all of my flights will show up on FlightAware regardless if I am on FF / talking to ATC?

Yep, I just looked at our 182 N735UD and my son flies it VFR or on an IFR flight plan if I am with him, but all the flights that show up were VFR some with Flight Following and some not.

 

[Fearless Tower]

So are you saying that once I install the GTX345 that all of my flights will show up on FlightAware regardless if I am on FF / talking to ATC?

Apparently. I had no clue about it until this accident.

Now, it looks like you can request to have your tail number blocked from public tracking. But that is a separate process you have to go through. I looked up some dotcom callsigns I know by N# and some show up and others are blocked.

 

[N747JB]

Apparently. I had no clue about it until this accident.

Now, it looks like you can request to have your tail number blocked from public tracking. But that is a separate process you have to go through. I looked up some dotcom callsigns I know by N# and some show up and others are blocked.

I just looked up N1DC Jerry's plane and it's blocked. I think all the NFL owners block their tail numbers, I know the Atlanta owner Arthur Blank has his blocked.

 

[Fearless Tower]

I just looked up N1DC Jerry's plane and it's blocked. I think all the NFL owners block their tail numbers, I know the Atlanta owner Arthur Blank has his blocked.

Yeah, apparently the block process is separate from obtaining a dotcom call sign.

 

[Pilawt]

Weird. Cause my phones and gadgets have been getting smarter every couple years.

People don't get software updates from the manufacturer every other Thursday. We're still operating on Human Nature 1.0.0.

 

[BigBadLou]

Is anyone else bothered by the idea that you can be openly tracked on FlightAware by your ADS-B signal alone?

I thought some ADS-B Out boxes allow the pilot to block the tail # from broadcasting. That's the one I will be getting when I equip. No tracking for me, please.

 

[FormerHangie]

I think you are exactly right.
They were heading for Telluride. You can teach, you can add the greatest tech ever devised, but you cannot account for the Human Factor.

But you really cannot blame GA or flying for it. Chances are this could have happened to the same family on icy mountain highways, when the get-there-it is takes over.

This came up in another thread, but it's applicable here as well: http://www.meretrix.com/~harry/flying/notes/safetyvsdriving.html It's a comparison of the risk of flying in an GA airplane to driving and flying in an airliner, and was done in 2005. What he came up with was a fatality rate per 100 million miles for each of the three. For driving, the number was 1.47, for airline operations the number was 1.57, and for GA flying the number was 13.1. Since that time, the fatality rate for airline flying has dropped to near zero, for driving it's dropped to 1.1, and for GA flying it's pretty much unchanged. I would say the way he calculated this makes airline flying appear more dangerous than it is because he doesn't take into account the number of passengers per vehicle, but does include the number of fatalities per crash. If you allow for that the airlines look much better.

I'm not telling anyone to quit flying, but I would want to know the real risks of what I was about to undertake. Flying has more inherent risk than does surface transportation and has to be done at a much higher level of performance to be safe.

 

[James331]

Is anyone else bothered by the idea that you can be openly tracked on FlightAware by your ADS-B signal alone?

Yup,

you didn't actually think ADSB was about "safety" did you

Yeah, apparently the block process is separate from obtaining a dotcom call sign.

And equally as useless with ADSB, every plane Ive owned has had a blocked tailnumber (FAA source blocked too), and the second you hit a tower, official or some radio nerds internet connected pi box, you aint blocked no mo, at least on some less mainstream websites.

I just looked up N1DC Jerry's plane and it's blocked. I think all the NFL owners block their tail numbers, I know the Atlanta owner Arthur Blank has his blocked.

Not so much

Ask him how the weather was in Houston this morning

 

[bnt83]

ADS-B tracking worries...

You do know that there is nothing preventing you from keeping an old mode C transponder AND having some form of ADS-B out.

Don't wanna be tracked, just turn off the new ADS-B and turn on the old dumb box squawking 1200.

Or just turn all transponders off.

I don't have space for two panel mount so something would have to be a remote box.

 

[FlySince9]

was LIFR at the time of departure, but thought he could climb above the layer and proceed

I know there are VFR guys/gals who have no problem with going over the top with VFR at departure and destination, but I gotta tell ya; I don't think its a good idea for a any NON-IR to lose ground contact for any extended period, especially if the flight is going to take you over rising or unfamiliar terrain. And, if you're going to do it, risking your own neck, at least leave the family home, especially an innocent kid who can't opt out. This stuff is regrettable, it's stupid, its unnecessary. But most of all, it's unforgiveable!

 

[N747JB]

Yup,

you didn't actually think ADSB was about "safety" did you




And equally as useless with ADSB, every plane Ive owned has had a blocked tailnumber (FAA source blocked too), and the second you hit a tower, official or some radio nerds internet connected pi box, you aint blocked no mo, at least on some less mainstream websites.






Not so much

Ask him how the weather was in Houston this morning

Where did you get that on N1DC? It is blocked on Flightaware and that's the only source I use, not that I am stalking him, I see his plane in Destin 4 weekends or so every summer.

 

[Katamarino]

What I wonder is if he had any kind of iPad/ForeFlight or portable GPS with terrain warnings.

He did. He had absolutely everything in that airplane, it was the nicest and best equipped 210 I have ever seen. I camped out at Payson, and they were the only other people camping there. It was Skylar's 12th birthday, she'd chosen to fly there for camping, and the next day they were going indoor skydiving as a surprise for the girls.

He showed me around the airplane, it was beautiful. The latest version of absolutely everything; GTNs, glass flight displays, new paint, interior. He was, quite rightly, very proud of it.

 

[James331]

ADS-B tracking worries...

You do know that there is nothing preventing you from keeping an old mode C transponder AND having some form of ADS-B out.

Don't wanna be tracked, just turn off the new ADS-B and turn on the old dumb box squawking 1200.

Or just turn all transponders off.

I don't have space for two panel mount so something would have to be a remote box.

That works, but will pizz the overlords off, they say if you have a working transponder it needs to be on.

Luckily for me, I'm remote enough, and normally low enough, the local towers and amatures don't often pick me up. Now if I stretch my legs or go up and play IFR, no privacy.

Reason #2942 why we need a ADSB solution which sets the N number and hex to a unassigned code when set to 1200.

 

[bnt83]

That works, but will pizz the overlords off, they say if you have a working transponder it needs to be on.

Luckily for me, I'm remote enough, and normally low enough, the local towers and armatures don't often pick me up. Now if I stretch my legs or go up and play IFR, no privacy.

Reason #2942 why we need a ADSB solution which sets the N number and hex to a unassigned code when set to 1200.

I'm curious if ADS-B in is disabled with the GTX345 in standby.

 

[CC268]

He did. He had absolutely everything in that airplane, it was the nicest and best equipped 210 I have ever seen. I camped out at Payson, and they were the only other people camping there. It was Skylar's 12th birthday, she'd chosen to fly there for camping, and the next day they were going indoor skydiving as a surprise for the girls.

He showed me around the airplane, it was beautiful. The latest version of absolutely everything; GTNs, glass flight displays, new paint, interior. He was, quite rightly, very proud of it.

Wow...unbelievable...

 

[Bill]

So now this family, and the one that went down over the Smokey Mts. Both non-instrument rated pilots flying into IMC over mountainous terrain. I just don't get it. The most well equipped plane money can buy won't help you a bit if you don't have some situational awareness, and frankly, common sense. RIP.

 

[Fearless Tower]

Yup,

you didn't actually think ADSB was about "safety" did you

Oh, it was never about safety.

All along, it was really just a cheap way of dealing with future airline volume in the national airspace. The cost of modernizing the surface based radar air traffic control system to handle the projected volume was too much to handle. So, someone sold the government a cheaper satellite-based solution.

 

[labbadabba]

So now this family, and the one that went down over the Smokey Mts. Both non-instrument rated pilots flying into IMC over mountainous terrain. I just don't get it. The most well equipped plane money can buy won't help you a bit if you don't have some situational awareness, and frankly, common sense. RIP.

Also the guy who crashed in Ill., Non Instrument Rated flying into weather.

 

[Fearless Tower]

So now this family, and the one that went down over the Smokey Mts. Both non-instrument rated pilots flying into IMC over mountainous terrain. I just don't get it. The most well equipped plane money can buy won't help you a bit if you don't have some situational awareness, and frankly, common sense. RIP.

I don't get it either. I just can't fathom how a pilot with that kind of modern tech could literally fly into a mountain in those conditions. I mean, how can you not realize you are descending into terrain? This isn't the 1940s.

 

[N659HB]

I don't get it either. I just can't fathom how a pilot with that kind of modern tech could literally fly into a mountain in those conditions. I mean, how can you not realize you are descending into terrain? This isn't the 1940s.

Unexpected downdraft?

 

[James331]

Oh, it was never about safety.

All along, it was really just a cheap way of dealing with future airline volume in the national airspace. The cost of modernizing the surface based radar air traffic control system to handle the projected volume was too much to handle. So, someone sold the government a cheaper satellite-based solution.

I hope you're right, but that ain't what my money's on.

I don't get it either. I just can't fathom how a pilot with that kind of modern tech could literally fly into a mountain in those conditions. I mean, how can you not realize you are descending into terrain? This isn't the 1940s.

I'd fathom to think we were better in the 40s IN SOME RESPECTS, I think having all this fancy tech, as it sounds like his 210 had, build these mental steroids in people and they push things further than they would in a super basic panel with only a paper sectional.

The tech is a lot like a 4x4 for some people, if you know what you're doing and are a master of it, it is a wonderful thing to have.
If you aren't a master of it and are not trained to the same standard, it's enough to get you into a spot you'd never have gotten yourself otherwise. If that makes sense.

 

[Fearless Tower]

I hope you're right, but that ain't what my money's on.

Either way it is bad.

 

[Bill]

Unexpected downdraft?

We can ask questions like that, but it's not the underlying problem.

This guy either:

1. Didn't get a proper weather brief for route of flight, or
2. Did, and exercised poor judgement and launched anyway.

VFR only pilot flying over mountains in OVC006 conditions? Not wise at all.

EDIT: Another thing this guy likely didn't do: Execute a level 180 turn to escape IFR conditions.

 

[Fearless Tower]

Unexpected downdraft?

Looking at the FlightAware track, he could have been finished off by a downdraft, but he clearly made an intentional descent from 7800' and leveled off for a bit before the end.

 

[FlyBoyAndy]

Database shows Eric as a non instrument PPL as of 2010.



As far as the dangers of flying, if you're overweight, or smoke cigarettes, just slap yourself now

I noticed that my certificate shows issued in 2010 too. That is when I turned in the paper to plastic and changed the number (I think from SS# to another or vice versa). Why did they change the issue date?

 

[Fearless Tower]

I noticed that my certificate shows issued in 2010 too. That is when I turned in the paper to plastic and changed the number (I think from SS# to another or vice versa). Why did they change the issue date?

Anytime you make a change (like address) or even request a replacement certificate, the date in the database gets updated.

 

[C4C]

Here's the flight tracking info ... the last bit is interesting -- In less than a minute, he lost ~1,000 feet in altitude and speed increased to 200 knots. His direction remained essentially unchanged though.

Timestamp UTC Callsign Position Altitude Speed Direction
1483373381 2017-01-02T16:09:41Z N272EF 33.619549,-111.915535 0 30 225
1483373401 2017-01-02T16:10:01Z N272EF 33.618587,-111.916649 0 30 222
1483373466 2017-01-02T16:11:06Z N272EF 33.61591,-111.919731 0 27 219
1483373476 2017-01-02T16:11:16Z N272EF 33.615612,-111.92009 0 18 219
1483373646 2017-01-02T16:14:06Z N272EF 33.621872,-111.911896 1350 79 43
1483373656 2017-01-02T16:14:16Z N272EF 33.624775,-111.908684 1425 84 42
1483373662 2017-01-02T16:14:22Z N272EF 33.626129,-111.907021 1475 88 47
1483373672 2017-01-02T16:14:32Z N272EF 33.628738,-111.903038 1600 88 54
1483373687 2017-01-02T16:14:47Z N272EF 33.632767,-111.897491 1850 89 47
1483373697 2017-01-02T16:14:57Z N272EF 33.635834,-111.893738 1950 90 42
1483373707 2017-01-02T16:15:07Z N272EF 33.638832,-111.890427 2100 92 42
1483373718 2017-01-02T16:15:18Z N272EF 33.642044,-111.88694 2200 86 40
1483373727 2017-01-02T16:15:27Z N272EF 33.645119,-111.883682 2325 92 43
1483373733 2017-01-02T16:15:33Z N272EF 33.646774,-111.881683 2300 102 42
1483373742 2017-01-02T16:15:42Z N272EF 33.651169,-111.878601 2300 112 24
1483373748 2017-01-02T16:15:48Z N272EF 33.653683,-111.877327 2400 109 21
1483373758 2017-01-02T16:15:58Z N272EF 33.658173,-111.875519 2575 102 17
1483373768 2017-01-02T16:16:08Z N272EF 33.662899,-111.873779 2725 103 16
1483373774 2017-01-02T16:16:14Z N272EF 33.665043,-111.873032 2775 104 17
1483373783 2017-01-02T16:16:23Z N272EF 33.669651,-111.871094 2925 102 20
1483373794 2017-01-02T16:16:34Z N272EF 33.674286,-111.869019 3050 100 22
1483373803 2017-01-02T16:16:43Z N272EF 33.678543,-111.866852 3200 101 22
1483373813 2017-01-02T16:16:53Z N272EF 33.68306,-111.864227 3300 105 28
1483373819 2017-01-02T16:16:59Z N272EF 33.685226,-111.86274 3350 105 30
1483373829 2017-01-02T16:17:09Z N272EF 33.689346,-111.859764 3500 106 31
1483373844 2017-01-02T16:17:24Z N272EF 33.695766,-111.854614 3750 103 33
1483373854 2017-01-02T16:17:34Z N272EF 33.699722,-111.851349 3950 104 34
1483373864 2017-01-02T16:17:44Z N272EF 33.703541,-111.848259 4075 105 33
1483373874 2017-01-02T16:17:54Z N272EF 33.707932,-111.844574 4225 106 35
1483373880 2017-01-02T16:18:00Z N272EF 33.709965,-111.84288 4300 106 35
1483373890 2017-01-02T16:18:10Z N272EF 33.714066,-111.839417 4450 107 35
1483373900 2017-01-02T16:18:20Z N272EF 33.718063,-111.836128 4600 107 33
1483373910 2017-01-02T16:18:30Z N272EF 33.722397,-111.832634 4775 106 34
1483373920 2017-01-02T16:18:40Z N272EF 33.726471,-111.82933 4950 104 33
1483373930 2017-01-02T16:18:50Z N272EF 33.73045,-111.826233 5025 113 33
1483373946 2017-01-02T16:19:06Z N272EF 33.738174,-111.820282 5050 135 33
1483373960 2017-01-02T16:19:20Z N272EF 33.746521,-111.812965 4950 155 36
1483373966 2017-01-02T16:19:26Z N272EF 33.749496,-111.810326 4900 160 36
1483373976 2017-01-02T16:19:36Z N272EF 33.756088,-111.805 4850 168 32
1483373986 2017-01-02T16:19:46Z N272EF 33.762661,-111.800079 4850 169 32
1483373996 2017-01-02T16:19:56Z N272EF 33.769775,-111.794861 4825 171 31
1483374006 2017-01-02T16:20:06Z N272EF 33.776489,-111.789841 4800 173 32
1483374016 2017-01-02T16:20:16Z N272EF 33.783333,-111.784348 4800 173 34
1483374026 2017-01-02T16:20:26Z N272EF 33.789848,-111.779022 4950 161 34
1483374036 2017-01-02T16:20:36Z N272EF 33.795853,-111.774155 5125 151 34
1483374052 2017-01-02T16:20:52Z N272EF 33.804375,-111.76741 5350 147 32
1483374067 2017-01-02T16:21:07Z N272EF 33.81303,-111.761002 5550 143 30
1483374082 2017-01-02T16:21:22Z N272EF 33.821735,-111.754875 5750 139 30
1483374097 2017-01-02T16:21:37Z N272EF 33.830208,-111.748871 5925 139 30
1483374112 2017-01-02T16:21:52Z N272EF 33.838715,-111.742561 6100 142 32
1483374128 2017-01-02T16:22:08Z N272EF 33.847229,-111.736 6250 143 33
1483374143 2017-01-02T16:22:23Z N272EF 33.855579,-111.729416 6450 143 33
1483374158 2017-01-02T16:22:38Z N272EF 33.863865,-111.723061 6600 143 33
1483374173 2017-01-02T16:22:53Z N272EF 33.872478,-111.716309 6725 145 33
1483374188 2017-01-02T16:23:08Z N272EF 33.880672,-111.709732 6900 142 34
1483374203 2017-01-02T16:23:23Z N272EF 33.888821,-111.703148 7075 140 33
1483374214 2017-01-02T16:23:34Z N272EF 33.894638,-111.69857 7150 141 32
1483374229 2017-01-02T16:23:49Z N272EF 33.903122,-111.692001 7250 144 32
1483374244 2017-01-02T16:24:04Z N272EF 33.911819,-111.685387 7275 155 32
1483374259 2017-01-02T16:24:19Z N272EF 33.921543,-111.677689 7175 166 33
1483374274 2017-01-02T16:24:34Z N272EF 33.931274,-111.669579 7175 166 34
1483374290 2017-01-02T16:24:50Z N272EF 33.940769,-111.661835 7200 170 33
1483374318 2017-01-02T16:25:18Z N272EF 33.96051,-111.646614 7150 171 33
1483374334 2017-01-02T16:25:34Z N272EF 33.970284,-111.638947 7150 173 32
1483374348 2017-01-02T16:25:48Z N272EF 33.980621,-111.630768 7150 173 33
1483374364 2017-01-02T16:26:04Z N272EF 33.990005,-111.623283 7425 152 33
1483374379 2017-01-02T16:26:19Z N272EF 33.998497,-111.616287 7700 140 33
1483374394 2017-01-02T16:26:34Z N272EF 34.006302,-111.610275 7900 138 31
1483374409 2017-01-02T16:26:49Z N272EF 34.015163,-111.603699 7900 149 31
1483374424 2017-01-02T16:27:04Z N272EF 34.024891,-111.596603 7850 163 31
1483374439 2017-01-02T16:27:19Z N272EF 34.034527,-111.589279 7775 171 33
1483374454 2017-01-02T16:27:34Z N272EF 34.044617,-111.581238 7750 173 33
1483374470 2017-01-02T16:27:50Z N272EF 34.054729,-111.572861 7750 172 35
1483374484 2017-01-02T16:28:04Z N272EF 34.064648,-111.564331 7750 172 35
1483374495 2017-01-02T16:28:15Z N272EF 34.071304,-111.558708 7750 170 34
1483374510 2017-01-02T16:28:30Z N272EF 34.080872,-111.550919 7750 169 34
1483374525 2017-01-02T16:28:45Z N272EF 34.090485,-111.543182 7750 168 33
1483374540 2017-01-02T16:29:00Z N272EF 34.100784,-111.535164 7750 166 33
1483374555 2017-01-02T16:29:15Z N272EF 34.1105,-111.527649 7750 165 32
1483374570 2017-01-02T16:29:30Z N272EF 34.117767,-111.521996 7750 164 32
1483374585 2017-01-02T16:29:45Z N272EF 34.127026,-111.514893 7750 163 32
1483374602 2017-01-02T16:30:02Z N272EF 34.137199,-111.507202 7800 162 31
1483374615 2017-01-02T16:30:15Z N272EF 34.145699,-111.500702 7800 163 32
1483374632 2017-01-02T16:30:32Z N272EF 34.1562,-111.492699 7750 165 32
1483374643 2017-01-02T16:30:43Z N272EF 34.167526,-111.484055 7275 192 33
1483374654 2017-01-02T16:30:54Z N272EF 34.176743,-111.476501 6875 200 35

 

[Fearless Tower]

I'd fathom to think we were better in the 40s IN SOME RESPECTS, I think having all this fancy tech, as it sounds like his 210 had, build these mental steroids in people and they push things further than they would in a super basic panel with only a paper sectional.

In some ways, but the mountains of AZ and other western states are full of wrecked airplanes that flew into them in IMC back during WWII. There was even a DC-3 that left 1/4 of its wing on a mountain south of Prescott flying in MVFR. Those guys didn't have the benefit of display screens flashing red and screaming about terrain ahead.

That is what I'm struggling with. I've flown in the mountains in MVFR with an ipads and a portable Garmin looking for holes/passes/openings and whenever I saw red…..I didn't go there.

I'm not trying to pass judgement on anybody, just talking out loud and trying to understand what might be going on in the mind of a pilot in that situation.

 

[ifly4fun]

Is anyone else bothered by the idea that you can be openly tracked on FlightAware by your ADS-B signal alone?

I wouldn't limit it to "ads-b alone" - I don't have ADS-B and just pulled up the last 7 flights for my plane, with no flight plan.

 

[Fearless Tower]

I wouldn't limit it to "ads-b alone" - I don't have ADS-B and just pulled up the last 7 flights for my plane, with no flight plan.

Were you using Flight Following or otherwise talking to an Approach facility?