Zero carbon emissions for major airline -- Do you think this is achievable? If so, how?

[tspear]

That's the biggest deterrent for me: cost. It makes just about ZERO financial sense to buy an EV like a Tesla at the moment. You could buy a loaded Honda Civic for $10K less than the base Tesla Model 3 and it would take most people over a decade to recoup the $10K in extra cost through "fuel" savings. Not to mention the cost of at home charging equipment or electrical modifications to put a welder circuit in the garage. Then you need to replace the Model 3 battery somewhere around the 10-15 year range which blows the savings all to hell. Must be the pragmatist in me, though.

Unless you are a high mileage driver, most of the EVs do NOT pencil out as a savings at this point and current gas prices. This is why I have not bought one yet.
Since we are a multi-car family, it may pencil out to get a Nissan Leaf level EV for a daily driver (as long as I stay outside Boston).
But when you crunch the numbers for a more capable EV, as long as gas is below 3 bucks a gallon EVs are generally about $5K too high over a 5 year TCO baseline to make sense.
So it will be soon, just not yet.

Tim

 

[Bob Noel]

Well, if they shut off the power for EV charging, I would assume the gas station doesn't have any power to their pumps, either. ...

Wouldn't that would depend on how they did the load shedding? I wasn't thinking about rolling blackouts, I was thinking about how some companies are installing remote switches to turn off high current-draw devices (e.g., AC). Maybe I'm wrong, but charging an EV seems to be a high-draw device.

 

[SoonerAviator]

Unless you are a high mileage driver, most of the EVs do NOT pencil out as a savings at this point and current gas prices. This is why I have not bought one yet.
Since we are a multi-car family, it may pencil out to get a Nissan Leaf level EV for a daily driver (as long as I stay outside Boston).
But when you crunch the numbers for a more capable EV, as long as gas is below 3 bucks a gallon EVs are generally about $5K too high over a 5 year TCO baseline to make sense.
So it will be soon, just not yet.

Tim

Precisely what my math showed as well. I know I've mentioned it in other threads, but I would be happy to drive an EV right now. I'd keep the diesel Excursion for the long family trips and heavy towing duties, and use a full-size sedan as a daily driver. We'd be a 2-car family with one ICE and one EV. It would afford the flexibility we need with some of the convenience of lower fuel (electricity) cost and our garage already has a 60A welder circuit ready to go. I couldn't stomach shelling out $40K+ for a used SUV with a lot of utility, I sure as heck can't shell out that much for a tiny sedan! I think here in the next 3-5 years when all of the major auto makers have started getting their EVs into the market in high volume, the prices will become more competitive. Although that may mean that the last ICE holdouts offer big discounts and I put off the EV purchase even longer! Man, I'm cheap, lol.

 

[SoonerAviator]

Wouldn't that would depend on how they did the load shedding? I wasn't thinking about rolling blackouts, I was thinking about how some companies are installing remote switches to turn off high current-draw devices (e.g., AC). Maybe I'm wrong, but charging an EV seems to be a high-draw device.

Well, I suppose it would be entirely dependent on how they arranged the load shedding. I mean, in general the typical EV charger is likely going to draw less than a typical 3-ton A/C unit in terms of power draw but it's tough to say how the electric company would make that decision. As far as individual homeowners, I doubt they would have any ability to see what homes were using power to charge an EV, so it would be tough to shut off the apartment complex full of charging vehicles while the neighborhood across the street continued on as usual. That might cause some ruffled feathers, lol.

 

[X3 Skier]

I certainly do not favor any system where people HAVE to use an EV. EVs have significant benefits for many but they also have limitations which make them unsuitable for others.

I guess they won’t be getting them from GM (or in CA) ZERO gas power vehicles by 2035.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics...rs-gm-zero-emission-gas-powered-vehicles.html

Cheers

 

[Everskyward]

This article seemed timely. It's study about people who bought EVs then went back to IC cars, and their reasons.

Electric driving range and the convenience of charging were the pain points, but charging was the biggest culprit: the authors found that "[f]or a one-point increase in satisfaction with the convenience of charging a BEV, there are 19.5% lower odds of discontinuing BEV adoption."

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/0...an-ev-drivers-revert-to-piston-power-but-why/

 

[tspear]

Well, I suppose it would be entirely dependent on how they arranged the load shedding. I mean, in general the typical EV charger is likely going to draw less than a typical 3-ton A/C unit in terms of power draw but it's tough to say how the electric company would make that decision. As far as individual homeowners, I doubt they would have any ability to see what homes were using power to charge an EV, so it would be tough to shut off the apartment complex full of charging vehicles while the neighborhood across the street continued on as usual. That might cause some ruffled feathers, lol.

These are called demand management programs if controlled by the utility. They normally have an incentive to the homeowner to install one. Back in MD, I joined the program for my electric water heater, about half the summer from 2pm till 8pm the hot water heater would not turn on. I could hit the override, and was allowed so many overrides a month. It saved me a about 200 a year to allow them to install the device.
I never hit the override in twenty years of living in MD.

I am willing to bet, if I had a daily driver EV, and Eversource had such a program, I would never hit the override.

Tim

 

[tspear]

This article seemed timely. It's study about people who bought EVs then went back to IC cars, and their reasons.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/0...an-ev-drivers-revert-to-piston-power-but-why/

Such a study needs to happen. And even the study points out charging at home is largest factor in deciding to stay EV.
However, with that said, even when I looked for the study what I can find is rather disappointing. The authors basically omit any statistical confidence, standard deviations, or control information.
So yeah, it is interesting, but does not appear to be "reliable" from a direction for which I would want to bet a company or government policy.

Tim

 

[Everskyward]

Such a study needs to happen. And even the study points out charging at home is largest factor in deciding to stay EV.
However, with that said, even when I looked for the study what I can find is rather disappointing. The authors basically omit any statistical confidence, standard deviations, or control information.
So yeah, it is interesting, but does not appear to be "reliable" from a direction for which I would want to bet a company or government policy.

Tim

Did you go to the actual study? I tried, but it was behind a paywall the first time, but when I tried again, I could access it here.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41...1DvIN5ON1Y=&tracking_referrer=arstechnica.com

 

[Larry in TN]

Sorry, but the maintenance costs on a Honda Civic are basically a blip in terms of ownership cost. $40-$50 for an oil change every 10K miles? Ok.

Tesla doesn't yet make a car in the same segment as a Honda Civic. Their Battery Day announcement said that one is coming. Repair Pal survey found the average repairs costs of a Honda Civic is $368 per year. That's pretty good, but it more than a $40-$50 oil change. See the link I posted above which did a five-year total cost of ownership comparison of a Model 3 and several trim levels of the Honda Accord. The Model 3 was less. There are other comparisons with similar results.

I guarantee the engine overhaul is cheaper than a new Tesla battery at current prices (roughly $13-$14K for a Model 3).

No one is having to replace battery packs. The high-mileage cars in each fleet are into the hundreds of thousands of miles with continued good battery performance.

RIGHT NOW it doesn't make financial sense to buy a $40K+ Model 3 in the name of being "green" or saving money.

I don't choose cars based on how green they might be but it does save money over a car in a comparable category, both in energy cost and maintenance. That's why large companies including Amazon and the USPS are transitioning to electric delivery vehicles. They are less expensive to operate.

Then, all we have to worry about is every apartment complex having to bust up their parking lots to try and provide charging stations, and businesses/homeowners wanting a couple of 220V runs to their garage. Better invest in copper and lithium!

We can't build enough batteries for enough EVs to reach a point were every apartment complex will need charging stations. That is many decades away. Some do, and more will, have charging available to their tenants and that's were those with EVs will live. Most EV owners will likely continue to be in single and multi-family homes which off-street parking and access to install a 240v outlet either in a garage or near the driveway. The AirBnB, and similar, short-term rental apps are starting to show EV charging availability in their listings and hotel chains are installing destination chargers at their properties to attract travelers in EVs. Businesses will continue to add charging options for their customers as the number of in-service EVs grow.

So you take the charging cord for your EV and plug the cord into a charging station and wander away for the night.... some enterprising thief unplugs your cord and plugs in their loooooong cord... stealing your charge (especially if it's one of the for-pay charging stations).

The charging connector is locked to the car when the car is locked. The lock is required when the car is charging to prevent arcing when it is removed.

I’ll be dead before a single next gen plant is finished and online.

This isn't about you or me. It is about the country's demographics. Millions of Americans fit the demographic that now, or soon will be, compatible with EVs. Keep your ICE vehicles for as long as you like. I don't care. Meanwhile, millions of others will choose an EV, over the coming years, because they are a better fit for them.

I guess they won’t be getting them from GM (or in CA) ZERO gas power vehicles by 2035.

California's initiative will fail. More people will leave for Idaho, Nevada, Texas, and other less intrusive states. The market will find ways to fill the void for those who stay.

 

[denverpilot]

Wouldn't that would depend on how they did the load shedding? I wasn't thinking about rolling blackouts, I was thinking about how some companies are installing remote switches to turn off high current-draw devices (e.g., AC). Maybe I'm wrong, but charging an EV seems to be a high-draw device.

Unless they know what time you need to leave next, the concept is broken.

And if you give humans a “blackout lockout” they’ll all use it during the unforecast whatever-weather that comes along “just in case”.

Then you get into stupidity like some vehicle charging needing to be more “essential” than other vehicle charging... blah blah blah.

System is already broken as a critical piece of infrastructure if it’s needing throttling of any sort anyway. Just fix it. You engineered for the wrong capacity.

 

[Bob Noel]

Unless they know what time you need to leave next, the concept is broken.

I never said it was a good idea...

System is already broken as a critical piece of infrastructure if it’s needing throttling of any sort anyway. Just fix it. You engineered for the wrong capacity.

Optimist: the glass is half full

pessimist: the glass is half empty

engineer: the glass is the wrong size

 

[Bob Noel]

The charging connector is locked to the car when the car is locked. The lock is required when the car is charging to prevent arcing when it is removed.
.

I was thinking about the other end of the cord.

 

[denverpilot]

This isn't about you or me. It is about the country's demographics. Millions of Americans fit the demographic that now, or soon will be, compatible with EVs. Keep your ICE vehicles for as long as you like. I don't care. Meanwhile, millions of others will choose an EV, over the coming years, because they are a better fit for them.

If it’s not about you or me, that’s good. I can ignore it then. LOL.

You seem to be lying now that you don’t care after arguing for them for pages. Which is it?

All I’ve been saying is they don’t fit the needs of a lot bigger group of people than you think.

They fit the needs of short commute wealthy people who want an enviro-hobby and something nice to post on social media about their deep care for the planet. LOL.

Wanna lower unnecessary consumption? I’ll give ya an easy one. Turn off all those silly street lights polluting my horizon over there in the rat colony. Your car came equipped with headlights. It’s normal for it to be dark at night. LOL.

Y’all seem afraid of the dark for some reason.

Go throw a nice 5K Saturday run for “awareness” together to kill all that unnecessary lighting. Hahaha.

 

[tspear]

Did you go to the actual study? I tried, but it was behind a paywall the first time, but when I tried again, I could access it here.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00814-9.epdf?sharing_token=pT8c55HSI2JbwCXMG_LTBNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OdQo1MtvaTf2fRd9Yuvl4XeI57cinWGD0KaEwg1kf5THhCyeCk3r2oBBFOSmxwPbmoQBWHqz8MUiFwJ5ikidMEp91hcDYDOo-f9NLeaobabAkhe3H34-kQ2q4wwO2JKogzByUv1D9OmiLaRGbMnAO6Ru4rTrcr6dQ4o_3IotvPPs-31E93IXRRF1DvIN5ON1Y=&tracking_referrer=arstechnica.com

Yes, I found it via google. They have roughly 1200 replies across roughly 30 criteria. That sample size although interesting, does not provide enough data to be able to extrapolate anything.

Tim

 

[tspear]

Tesla doesn't yet make a car in the same segment as a Honda Civic. Their Battery Day announcement said that one is coming. Repair Pal survey found the average repairs costs of a Honda Civic is $368 per year. That's pretty good, but it more than a $40-$50 oil change. See the link I posted above which did a five-year total cost of ownership comparison of a Model 3 and several trim levels of the Honda Accord. The Model 3 was less. There are other comparisons with similar results.

That was based on the federal refund, which has ended for Tesla. Currently a Model 3 will run you in the low 40s. So, now it is slightly more expensive than the Accord.

Tim

 

[tspear]

They fit the needs of short commute wealthy people who want an enviro-hobby and something nice to post on social media about their deep care for the planet. LOL.

Anecdotally, among the EV owners I know, and I know a fair number of them. I know of exactly one which bought it for Environmental reasons. All the others, it was cost, convenience (never stopping for gas), gadgets or performance. (a few people have run FB polls, so I see it).
Those who bought a Tesla universally interested in the gadgets or performance.
Those when went the Chevy Bolt and Nissan Leaf were all focused on cost and convenience. Leaf owners more focused on the cost, where the Bolt owners had a slightly larger focus on the convenience side.

Tim

 

[Larry in TN]

I was thinking about the other end of the cord.

They'll get a pretty big arc when they do that. Never heard of it happening but it could. So could gasoline syphoning or pouring contaminants into a gas tank.

You seem to be lying now that you don’t care after arguing for them for pages. Which is it?

I never argued that anyone should by an EV for any reason. But people are buying them. Tesla delivered just short of 500,000 cars in 2020. Over the past two quarters, 4Q20 & 1Q21, they have been on pace to deliver over 700,000 in 2021. VW has it's new ID.4 and soon ID.3 coming out in large quantities. Ford can't keep up with the orders for their Mustang Mach-E. More and more people are buying EVs. The primary restraint is battery availability, not power infrastructure.

All I’ve been saying is they don’t fit the needs of a lot bigger group of people than you think.

Since neither of us have, or can, put any numbers to that assertation it's moot. Today, the EV manufacturers can sell all the EVs they can make and we don't yet have an EV in the Accord/Camry price category. When we do, demand will be even higher. The upcoming 4680 battery will get us there.

They fit the needs of short commute wealthy people who want an enviro-hobby and something nice to post on social media about their deep care for the planet.

It is this attitude that I have been arguing against. It is wrong. People with a short commute will only have to charge once or twice a week, if they so choose. People with more daily driving will save more, with an EV, than those who drive less. That's why the large fleet operators are going EV.

There's certainly an environmental attraction to some, but that is not the primary attraction of EVs to most.

That was based on the federal refund, which has ended for Tesla. Currently a Model 3 will run you in the low 40s. So, now it is slightly more expensive than the Accord.

It was written when there was a small ($1875 IIRC) refund. Remove that and you're about equal with the cheaper accords and still ahead of the more expensive ones. There are many more such comparisons and the EVs win.

https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EV-Ownership-Cost-Final-Report-1.pdf

 

[denverpilot]

Anecdotally, among the EV owners I know, and I know a fair number of them. I know of exactly one which bought it for Environmental reasons. All the others, it was cost, convenience (never stopping for gas), gadgets or performance. (a few people have run FB polls, so I see it).
Those who bought a Tesla universally interested in the gadgets or performance.
Those when went the Chevy Bolt and Nissan Leaf were all focused on cost and convenience. Leaf owners more focused on the cost, where the Bolt owners had a slightly larger focus on the convenience side.

Tim

Fair points on the gadgets and other reasons. Do they maintain a second vehicle besides the toy? That seems the demographic here. Mostly asking out of curiosity.

 

[denverpilot]

I never argued that anyone should by an EV for any reason. But people are buying them. Tesla delivered just short of 500,000 cars in 2020. Over the past two quarters, 4Q20 & 1Q21, they have been on pace to deliver over 700,000 in 2021. VW has it's new ID.4 and soon ID.3 coming out in large quantities. Ford can't keep up with the orders for their Mustang Mach-E. More and more people are buying EVs. The primary restraint is battery availability, not power infrastructure.

We have differing opinions of “large quantities”. Pre Covid, worldwide auto production was 100 million a year.

It’s like when people tell me they have “a” web server. That’s quaint. LOL

Or that they have a phone system that handles a couple thousand calls... that’s neat, I crashed an MCI switch doing a live weekend test with 20,000 phone lines on a Saturday in 1993.

I get scale. 1M is a “barely started”. They’ve got some really big hurdles coming when they try to switch from niche to mass market.

Since neither of us have, or can, put any numbers to that assertation it's moot. Today, the EV manufacturers can sell all the EVs they can make and we don't yet have an EV in the Accord/Camry price category. When we do, demand will be even higher. The upcoming 4680 battery will get us there.

Correction: All the EVs they want to make. Not all they can make. Tesla can and may still be crushed if a serious manufacturer wants to.

And we’ve had multiple EVs in the price range of a econo-sedan. Tesla decided to work their way down from the high end. A reasonable strategy. But nobody bought the cheaper ones either.

It is this attitude that I have been arguing against. It is wrong. People with a short commute will only have to charge once or twice a week, if they so choose. People with more daily driving will save more, with an EV, than those who drive less. That's why the large fleet operators are going EV.

Been looking for those large fleets. Haven’t seen em. Granted not flying weekly around the country anymore but not seeing any more EVs in fleets in any percentages above the general tiny uptake.

Like I said, I like the tech but it isn’t scaled yet at all. Tesla can’t even manage to put body panels on straight yet. They’ll get there.

Been involved in big disruptive stuff (many of us here have) - there’s a lot of pain still coming for them. And lots of that big disruptive stuff... well, it wasn’t worth doing. Some was.

I’m glad somebody’s excited about it. They’ll need zealots.

We even joked about this natural progression at work the other day. We have two accidentally “competing” technologies for telecom things. One upper manager is enamored with the newer one. It’s the wave of the future and all that.

Completely blinds him to its serious problems.

My job, as always, is to slow him down enough to keep the thing from being a significant threat to the business. Totally normal around here. Ha. It doesn’t actually meet his complete business needs and it’s not cheaper. He can’t afford the features he wants it to do. He can’t even afford to hire a 100% dedicated telecom engineer to babysit it.

Same mentality. Zealots move things along but miss big risks they’re setting up. EVs in massive scale have some big risks.

Heck I’m a nuclear zealot but know we still can’t politically decide which mountain to bury the waste under.

Probably the biggest risk of EVs... reliance on some very small pockets of rare earth material that everybody wants for almost all things electronic these days... supply chain risk on quite a number of things needed.

How many auto plants are currently shut down for lack of electronic components? The Jeep lawsuit was hilarious. Pretending they had a “verbal agreement” with the chip maker. LOL. Hilarious. Desperate much? Haha.

We are, after all, in a country that ran out of toilet paper inside of a couple of months. LOL. If we can’t handle the logistics of that... hahaha.

 

[tspear]

Fair points on the gadgets and other reasons. Do they maintain a second vehicle besides the toy? That seems the demographic here. Mostly asking out of curiosity.

Mixed, the couples are multi car families. The singles generally are not. Among the singles I know with an EV never road trip except one lady. She has always rented a luxury car to do her annual trip to FL, and uses a cheap daily driver for home.

Tim

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk

 

[SoonerAviator]

Tesla doesn't yet make a car in the same segment as a Honda Civic. Their Battery Day announcement said that one is coming. Repair Pal survey found the average repairs costs of a Honda Civic is $368 per year. That's pretty good, but it more than a $40-$50 oil change. See the link I posted above which did a five-year total cost of ownership comparison of a Model 3 and several trim levels of the Honda Accord. The Model 3 was less. There are other comparisons with similar results.


No one is having to replace battery packs. The high-mileage cars in each fleet are into the hundreds of thousands of miles with continued good battery performance.

Check out the interior specs (headroom/hip/shoulder/leg) room for front and rear passengers. Check out the trunk space. Exterior dimensions. The Tesla 3 is nearly identical to a Honda Civic from a functional standpoint. I've been in both vehicles, and the interior and paint/fit-n-finish of the Model 3 isn't competing with luxury cars at this point. While it is modern with lots of tech gadgets, the quality isn't on par with BMW/Mercedes/Lexus. So, for me, it lines up with a loaded Honda Civic and looks about as appealing. The Accord is much bigger than the Model 3, and looks better (imo).

Model S is a different animal with an obviously different price.

 

[Larry in TN]

I don't even know what your point is. Your posts are all over the place. You have insulted me a couple of times. What are you trying to say?

And we’ve had multiple EVs in the price range of a econo-sedan. Tesla decided to work their way down from the high end. A reasonable strategy. But nobody bought the cheaper ones either.

The previous "cheap ones" weren't practical outside of niche uses. An 85 mile range will only work in limited situations and offers no flexibility when you need to go outside those constraints. Once you get above about 300 miles of range the picture is very different.

Been looking for those large fleets. Haven’t seen em.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/ama...-electric-delivery-vans-in-san-francisco.html
https://about.usps.com/newsroom/nat...nization-of-postal-delivery-vehicle-fleet.htm
https://www.ups.com/us/es/services/...le.page?kid=ac91f520&articlesource=longitudes
https://www.businessinsider.com/fedex-delivery-fleet-all-electric-carbon-neutral-2040-sustainability-2021-3#:~:text=FedEx's entire parcel pickup and,its global operations carbon-neutral.&text=FedEx also said it would,reduce aircraft and vehicle emissions.
https://www.dhl.com/discover/business/business-ethics/future-of-electric-vehicles#:~:text=Around a fifth of DHL's,to favor the vehicle's deployment.
https://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2020/09/22/walmart-commits-to-100-zero-emission-trucks-by-2040-signaling-electric-is-the-future/#:~:text=Home-,Walmart commits to 100% zero-emission trucks by 2040,,signaling electric is the future&text=The company will accelerate efforts,full fleet transition by 2040.

Probably the biggest risk of EVs... reliance on some very small pockets of rare earth material that everybody wants for almost all things electronic these days.

Have you read about he 4680 battery, that I've mentioned several times?
https://eepower.com/new-industry-products/teslas-4680-a-cobalt-free-silicon-battery-solution/#
https://www.torquenews.com/8113/why-tesla-tabless-battery-so-good

Mixed, the couples are multi car families. The singles generally are not. Among the singles I know with an EV never road trip except one lady. She has always rented a luxury car to do her annual trip to FL, and uses a cheap daily driver for home.

A long road trip will take longer in an EV. The tradeoff is that, with Tesla and others, the included autopilot can reduce driver fatigue on long drives. That is also available on some higher-end ICE cars. There's also a savings on energy costs.

Long trips require a different approach to "fueling" than an ICE vehicle. You don't fill up the "tank" at each charging stop like we are used to doing. The battery has a charge profile where it charges fastest low to moderate charge states then the charge rate tapers off as it approaches a full charge. To minimize total charging time, the approach is similar to flight planning. You only charge enough to reach the next charging stop plus a reserve. This keeps the battery in it's fastest charging zone which minimizes your total charging time. This is why a 300+ mile range is important; not because you're going to fly close to 300 miles between charges, but so you can keep the battery in it's fastest charging range without haven't to stop more often than you otherwise wood for food or restroom stops.

Start fully charges from home, charge only enough to reach the next stop at each charging stop, then spend the night at a motel with a destination charger so you can start full the next morning.

You can play around with the "flight planning" on the www.ABetterRoutePlanner.com web site. The site lets you choose any of the available EVs with any of their available ranges and other range-affecting options. Another good resource is the Out of Spec Motoring YouTube channel. He documents EV road trips in a variety of EVs.

Lastly, EVs are proving to be safer than ICE.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-evs...QmXg7wRiUpl3nv0XrX9aSDgi6VpNMjZIB1-ZppUxHfhCA

So, for me, it lines up with a loaded Honda Civic and looks about as appealing.

Then don't buy one. Nobody said they are for everyone.

Very few buyers who consider a Model 3 are comparing it to a Honda Civic as their alternate option. Probably a few more with the Honda Accord but not that many. A potential Accord buyer might be more likely to consider a VW ID.4 or a Hyundai Kona EV as an EV alternative.

 

[denverpilot]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/ama...-electric-delivery-vans-in-san-francisco.html
https://about.usps.com/newsroom/nat...nization-of-postal-delivery-vehicle-fleet.htm
https://www.ups.com/us/es/services/...le.page?kid=ac91f520&articlesource=longitudes
https://www.businessinsider.com/fedex-delivery-fleet-all-electric-carbon-neutral-2040-sustainability-2021-3#:~:text=FedEx's entire parcel pickup and,its global operations carbon-neutral.&text=FedEx also said it would,reduce aircraft and vehicle emissions.
https://www.dhl.com/discover/business/business-ethics/future-of-electric-vehicles#:~:text=Around a fifth of DHL's,to favor the vehicle's deployment.
https://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2020/09/22/walmart-commits-to-100-zero-emission-trucks-by-2040-signaling-electric-is-the-future/#:~:text=Home-,Walmart commits to 100% zero-emission trucks by 2040,,signaling electric is the future&text=The company will accelerate efforts,full fleet transition by 2040.


Have you read about he 4680 battery, that I've mentioned several times?
https://eepower.com/new-industry-products/teslas-4680-a-cobalt-free-silicon-battery-solution/#
https://www.torquenews.com/8113/why-tesla-tabless-battery-so-good

I believe you mistook my statement that I was looking for actual fleets to mean I wanted press releases about stuff slated 20 years out.

My issue has alway been that scaling this will be much harder than expected.

“Call me back when all of those fleets are at 10% DEPLOYED.” That’s when the real “fun” starts.

Those also are the largest of the large delivery fleets. There’s a lot more fleets than those.

The FedEx Presser is the funniest.

Any whoo... off to go work on modern problems. You know, all the stuff “they” said would make our lives “better” in the early 2000s... hahaha.

“Install all these computers in everything, we’ll worry about security later. Nobody hacks this stuff.”

Nation-states have entered the chat...

 

[Larry in TN]

I believe you mistook my statement that I was looking for actual fleets to mean I wanted press releases about stuff slated 20 years out.

You jump around so much, and use so much sarcasm, I can't keep track of the point you're trying to make.

I brought up the upcoming conversions to EV delivery fleets to show that EVs are cheaper to operate. Amazon, UPS, FedEx, DHL, USPS, Walmart, etc. wouldn't be converting to EV fleets if they weren't less expensive than their current diesel fleets. These aren't a few companies doing small test programs. It is nearly every large delivery fleet operator planning a complete conversion of their fleets.

 

[jordane93]

I’m going with a gas hybrid when my ‘03 Taurus dies. I’ll probably buy a 2-3 year old Honda Accord hybrid. My mom’s 2019 Accord hybrid gets 55 mpg. She also drives very conservatively. I’d probably get about 45-50 mpg. I’ll need it once I get back flying. It’s about a 120 mile round trip to the airport. I figure, if I do 4 trips a month, that’s almost 500 miles just going to work and back. A Tesla isn’t feasible for me at the moment.

 

[denverpilot]

You jump around so much, and use so much sarcasm, I can't keep track of the point you're trying to make.

I brought up the upcoming conversions to EV delivery fleets to show that EVs are cheaper to operate. Amazon, UPS, FedEx, DHL, USPS, Walmart, etc. wouldn't be converting to EV fleets if they weren't less expensive than their current diesel fleets. These aren't a few companies doing small test programs. It is nearly every large delivery fleet operator planning a complete conversion of their fleets.

None of those press releases said they’re cheaper to operate — they said they hope they are. There’s no real world data behind it because they’re not actual operating fleets.

Huge difference in the engineering world, and exactly why my heavy sarcasm.

Marketing and PR people say a lot of things. You take them as truth. Without a fleet of say even 10%, it is literally BS to me. So far from reality it doesn’t exist.

My statement “I’m looking for fleets” was quite literal. They don’t exist yet.

Haven’t seen anything this “oooh ahh it’s wonderful” pie-in-the-sky not go hundreds of percent over budget yet.

(And get covered up on the books while quickly moving the marketing and PR on to the “next big thing” so nobody notices, until we Ops folks rip out the last “next big thing” because it’s not working and causing the Titanic to head for bankruptcy...)

Like that FedEx PR thing that was the most breathless of them all. Said they’ll do it all — 100% switch — for $2B. That was laughable. So far from reality you just laugh and say, “Whoever wrote that won’t be fired when thats 5x low. They’ll hide it in the OpEx column, or just announce they’re doing something else every year.”

Quite a difference between reality and company press releases. Hell multiple places I’ve been at put out PR saying they were doing one thing, when we were months down a different path internally. Ops engineers don’t care.

“Hey guys, look what marketing says we’re working on!”... big laugh in our meeting, eye rolls, and moving right along.

Believe PR releases at your own peril. Ha. Only people outside those places who knew where we were actually headed, spent big bucks with us. They were allowed to ask confidentially.

Hasn’t changed. Marketing dept deals mostly in fantasy. The bigger the company the more they aren’t told. Just how it works out.

The USPS one was the least breathless about electric stuff. Almost no mention of it at all. They just need to replace their decades old Grumman trash heaps. They don’t care how at this point. Nice to see Oshkosh get the bid. That sounds like real money plunked down on the table.

And please don’t take this as disparaging to marketing. Someone has to distract the customers so we can get real work done. Ha. Quite a few are easily distracted by shiny objects and have short memories. Hahaha.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Been looking for those large fleets. Haven’t seen em. Granted not flying weekly around the country anymore but not seeing any more EVs in fleets in any percentages above the general tiny uptake.

I've seen busses here in Lincoln, a few other delivery type vehicles rolling electrons.

Been involved in big disruptive stuff (many of us here have) - there’s a lot of pain still coming for them. And lots of that big disruptive stuff... well, it wasn’t worth doing. Some was.

I have been involved with disruptive stuff too, the biggest problem were political, if that is the right word for it. Management told me it wouldn't work- my response is they should have told me earlier, before I wasted my time inventing it. I was told "it's too simple, it can't be that easy"- actually, it is. "No one else does it this way"- That's right- I only just invented it; but they will do it this way, soon. I asked if I could publish- "sure, just don't write the manuscript on company time. If you want to waste your time and get a rejection, knock yourself out". It was accepted, it got the most reads in that journal for several months. That's when they realized I had something. They lost the ability to patent it now, but sales of the instrument with that algorithm have more than doubled, and we didn't lose sales on it during the pandemic, as happened with other lines. It will soon be in all of our chromatography products- The decision to add it to everything happened when I told a manager to grab any compound off the shelf, and develop a purification method with the traditional methods. I'll use my algorithm. By the time they got the first step done, I had a method developed and the pure compound fractionated.

You (and a few others) sound like the some of management where I work. If some of the big disruptive stuff you mention wasn't worth doing, then it really wasn't very disruptive, was it? Electric vehicles will be used by those who can make good use of them. I'm pretty sure that, by now, the utility companies know EVs are coming. Any of their managers who haven't started the planning process for them should be fired. This isn't a once-in-a-hundred-year storm that knocks out power across several states. This is something that has been growing over time. People on PoA have said Tesla wasn't going to last, they would be gone next year, since the company was started.

As for fleets, the reference below covers several bus fleets in existence now:
https://www.sustainable-bus.com/new...t-is-still-growing-but-the-subsides-switched/
"The order of electric buses for Amstelland Meerlanden‘s electric bus fleet is still the largest single order for VDL Bus & Coach, and with 100 electric buses it is the largest electric bus fleet within a single operation in Europe. The 100 articulated e-buses collectively cover up to 30,000 km per day. These batteries are charged in 20 minutes or less at charging points along the route, allowing 24-hour service."

 

[Larry in TN]

None of those press releases said they’re cheaper to operate

Those weren't technical papers, but the UPS article says that the electric delivery vans will cost about the same to buy then 20% less to operate over it's lifetime.

Big companies like USPS, UPS, Amazon, etc., aren't making these moves because it'll cost more. They are making big investments in the EV technology and infrastructure because it will cost them less. They don't do that on a whim or on hopes. They have run the numbers.

No data? No fleets? There were over 10,000,000 plug-in vehicles in-service worldwide at the end of 2020.

You sound like someone who's new puppy was run over by an EV.

 

[SoonerAviator]

Those weren't technical papers, but the UPS article says that the electric delivery vans will cost about the same to buy then 20% less to operate over it's lifetime.

Big companies like USPS, UPS, Amazon, etc., aren't making these moves because it'll cost more. They are making big investments in the EV technology and infrastructure because it will cost them less. They don't do that on a whim or on hopes. They have run the numbers.

No data? No fleets? There were over 10,000,000 plug-in vehicles in-service worldwide at the end of 2020.

You sound like someone who's new puppy was run over by an EV.

To be fair, his puppy was run over by a Tesla on autopilot that was supposed to have automated emergency braking.

 

[aterry1067]

Mixed, the couples are multi car families. The singles generally are not. Among the singles I know with an EV never road trip except one lady. She has always rented a luxury car to do her annual trip to FL, and uses a cheap daily driver for home.

Tim

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk

I’m going with a gas hybrid when my ‘03 Taurus dies. I’ll probably buy a 2-3 year old Honda Accord hybrid. My mom’s 2019 Accord hybrid gets 55 mpg. She also drives very conservatively. I’d probably get about 45-50 mpg. I’ll need it once I get back flying. It’s about a 120 mile round trip to the airport. I figure, if I do 4 trips a month, that’s almost 500 miles just going to work and back. A Tesla isn’t feasible for me at the moment.

Around 2 years ago, I ended up buying a used (practically new with 6k miles) Ford Fusion Energi plug in hybrid for about half of retail with full warranty. I had no desire one way or the other for an EV or hybrid, but I couldn't turn away from the deal. My daily driver prior to that was a Toyota FJ Cruiser. I still have the FJ and as far as I am concerned will keep it forever, but it has been relegated to "toy" status.

My daily commute is 18 miles one way. Driving normal (80 mph on the hwy) I can get to work without the ICE turning on, or f it does it is at the very end of the trip. If I drive much more conservatively (65 mph hwy and take more surface streets) then I can get all the way to work and about 3 miles into the trip home before the ICE turns on. I fill up the gas tank about every 3 weeks, and it has a 14 gallon tank. I am averaging around 80 mpg during the week. If I could charge at work, I would rarely have a need for fuel.

The car works for me, and I won't be changing it. I doubt I will ever buy another vehicle as a daily driver that is not hybrid or EV. I also take road trips in the car and it has performed quite well for that purpose, although I admittedly do not charge the batteries en-route unless there is an opportunity to do so. I am glad to see though, that charging opportunities are becoming a lot more common.

 

[denverpilot]

Those weren't technical papers, but the UPS article says that the electric delivery vans will cost about the same to buy then 20% less to operate over it's lifetime.

Big companies like USPS, UPS, Amazon, etc., aren't making these moves because it'll cost more. They are making big investments in the EV technology and infrastructure because it will cost them less. They don't do that on a whim or on hopes. They have run the numbers.

No data? No fleets? There were over 10,000,000 plug-in vehicles in-service worldwide at the end of 2020.

You sound like someone who's new puppy was run over by an EV.

The non-sequitur personal slur aside, again I made my points that you’re blind to and ignoring.

Those “aren’t technical papers” because they are FICTION.

The big companies are HOPING it saves them money. They’re TESTING that.

10M (love you adding the zeros, makes it look bigger doesn’t it? Do you work in marketing? LOL!) is absolutely tiny in a world that produces 98M vehicles per YEAR. It’s not even past Alpha testing when it comes to scale.

Zip. Poop. Nothing burger. Haven’t even started to stress the supply, support, or legal systems behind any of it.

From the engineering standpoint it’s a nice little side toy.

Can it grow up and play wIth the big kids someday? Sure. Let me know when any of those companies signs actual contracts d takes delivery into 10% of their fleets. Until then it’s pat the zealous on the head and say, “That sounds nice kids. Enjoy those 80 hour workweeks to get it there. BTDT.”

The zealots and marketeers will continue to hand wave away all those hours you’re putting in to make it work half as well as they promised. That’s their job. Totally normal.

I always enjoy a good online chat with zealots about anything tech. They exhibit an amazing resilience to reality that fascinates me. They’re never ever involved in an Operations level position in their line of work, low or high level.

They’re the people who go home at night and never work after hours to fix something that’ll mean the company is out of business when everyone wakes up tomorrow if they don’t fix it or come up with a workaround.

Must be nice.

The good news is, as you get older in an ops engineering job when it comes to new things you get to simply say, no. We aren’t doing that. Go make up some new marketing spew. We’ll do this instead.

Unless some idiot has already signed a contract. Then maybe. Cash bribes gladly accepted. Or vacation days. And stopping all work on three other things since your lack of planning does not constitute an emergency on my part.

LOL. Again I’m all for the new toys to take off and do great things. Some poor schmuck in his 20s can do the hours I did making incredibly dumb ideas work long enough to modify them to half of what was promised and the marketeers to convince everyone that’s what they said. Haha.

I’ve had the toilet paper of “founders shares” too. Only took me eight years to figure out impossible jobs require cash up front. Ha.

Homer Simpson Voice: “MMMMM. Bankruptcy car wash. The owners ran away and are still millionaires and 450 people got pink slips for Christmas... Delicious!”

I easily laugh now. Surviving stupidity teaches you important lessons about tech zealots.

 

[Larry in TN]

To be fair, his puppy was run over by a Tesla on autopilot that was supposed to have automated emergency braking.

...and the only two occupants were both in the back seat!

I would be angry, too.

 

[denverpilot]

You (and a few others) sound like the some of management where I work. If some of the big disruptive stuff you mention wasn't worth doing, then it really wasn't very disruptive, was it?

Heh. I should have been clearer on that. They called stuff disruptive. We yawned and called it a duplication or triplication of things already done.

(Without getting too into the weeds we were stuck using ten year old DSP chips that couldn’t do what the marketers promised — while simultaneously without the marketers knowledge another group of us was hidden away with full upper management approval — literally creating the new chips that would. What marketing and sales were selling for ten years didn’t exist on the planet. It was being made but some of us limped along the old stuff, some of us were in the “secret” group making the new stuff. Neither matched any of the marketing wank ever produced about any of it.)

All of us got a good laugh out of the company’s marketing BS for almost a decade it took from start to finish.

Similar marketing BS throughout the Dot Com / Dot Bomb bubble and burst.)

Different sides to the same coin. You tend to work for places with stodgy management and just make new things in spite of them.

I deal with the tech zealots selling things they can’t actually make or have no idea what they just signed a place up for.

(And I should say, at the current place I avoided the zealots and the stodgy ones. They’re both easy to spot after age 40. The current ones are a decent mix but can’t afford what they want. We find ways to do most of what they want cheaper. Bit we do have one new zealot we acquired in a company purchase. He’s funny but doesn’t realize it. Saw him comin’ a mile away. Warned the team not to let him derail stuff, since that’s my old guy job now. Ha.)

I’m far from stodgy in the electric vehicle thing. I know some stodgy folks and they’d appall Larry. Ha. I just can smell marketing stank on stuff. Larry has decent predictions he just shouldn’t use marketing wank to prove them. Hehehehe.

The current main role being “security” — man is this engineering sector chock full
of wankers. Holy moly. Pretty damn big bubble of BS in this world. Sat through a great presentation of a product this morning “that will save everyone time...” ... you know, if you already have five people wasting time to program it to save them time. LOL. And it injests data from thirty other expensive products that also need five people each to program first. Haha.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

You tend to work for places with stodgy management and just make new things in spite of them.

I suppose it depends on how one defines "Stodgy". There was some of that. I also ran into some of "I didn't invent it so I want no part of it"- which is what I termed "political". Then there was the fear that chemists wouldn't accept it because it was new- what a laugh. Scientists are generally the most interested in new things; they are also skeptical of "marketing stank", as you phrase it. One of our competitors (in Europe) has something now that works the same way as my algorithm, and a couple of Chinese companies are trying to lure me away. What a trip- I have something people want!

Back to EV- I see a lot of the same in this thread. "It can't be done." "People won't want them." China has a Sh**load of electric cars, buses, and trucks, and they manage to charge them somehow. My opinion is they've too many companies making them, and the herd's going to be thinned. Europe is pushing ahead with EV, too. It seems the USA is lagging.

 

[Dan Thomas]

China has a Sh**load of electric cars, buses, and trucks, and they manage to charge them somehow. My opinion is they've too many companies making them, and the herd's going to be thinned. Europe is pushing ahead with EV, too. It seems the USA is lagging.

In those more densely-populated countries the EV makes sense. In the big American and Canadian cities they make sense, for some, but we also have always been used to travelling considerable distances compared to Europeans, and for that the EV doesn't work as well as the ICE vehicle, for now. A lot of North Americans commute an hour or more each way to work. In Europe, not so much. In England, where my grandparents grew up, many people never get all that far from home. A trip of 200 miles each way is a pretty big deal. Even in the oldest Canadian provinces on the east coast, that culture is still found in many places. Our British relatives, when they visited us, couldn't get over the vast distances we casually travel and the sheer size of Canada. Looking at the map is one thing; experiencing it as you travel across the country is another thing altogether.

 

[denverpilot]

I suppose it depends on how one defines "Stodgy". There was some of that. I also ran into some of "I didn't invent it so I want no part of it"- which is what I termed "political". Then there was the fear that chemists wouldn't accept it because it was new- what a laugh. Scientists are generally the most interested in new things; they are also skeptical of "marketing stank", as you phrase it. One of our competitors (in Europe) has something now that works the same way as my algorithm, and a couple of Chinese companies are trying to lure me away. What a trip- I have something people want!

Back to EV- I see a lot of the same in this thread. "It can't be done." "People won't want them." China has a Sh**load of electric cars, buses, and trucks, and they manage to charge them somehow. My opinion is they've too many companies making them, and the herd's going to be thinned. Europe is pushing ahead with EV, too. It seems the USA is lagging.

Fun stuff. Yeah I’m not in the “can’t be done” camp. I’m in the “there’s a whole lot of hidden costs coming soon” camp.

Right now we are in the $99 introductory flight stage. LOL

 

[Cap'n Jack]

A lot of North Americans commute an hour or more each way to work. In Europe, not so much.

Which places do you mean? I'm merely asking for context, because in many places in North America, an hour commute is only 30 miles or so because of traffic. My experience with that has been LA, SF bay area, NJ, Philadelphia, DC,NYC and Long Island, Boston, Seattle, and Vancouver. In NE, an hour commute is about 60 miles. In the big Denver cities, that commute and be 30 miles, or more than 60 because people live out beyond Silverthorne and Frisco and drive to Denver. The vast majority of those commutes can be handled with a modest EV.

@denverpilot On I-70 they have signs that tell how long it takes to get to different exits/towns. I thought they were times to beat, as did some of the other drivers until a cop pulled over some unlucky member of the pack.

Right now we are in the $99 introductory flight stage. LOL

Here's a question you should be asking- EVs pay little to no gasoline tax, which is supposed to go to roads. Get enough EVs replacing ICE vehicles, how are the roads going to be funded? I think (but I don't know) that trucks pay through another mechanism. That might be your $99 intro flight at this time.

 

[Larry in TN]

Get enough EVs replacing ICE vehicles, how are the roads going to be funded?

My guess would be through increased registration fees; possibly based on mileage driven each year.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

My guess would be through increased registration fees; possibly based on mileage driven each year.

You are probably right, how well do you feel a "mileage tax" will go over? My guess is "not very well".