Will AI replace GA pilots?

Ed Haywood

Ed Haywood

Final Approach
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Could AI make GA flying simple enough that real pilots are no longer necessary?

Will there one day be a class of aircraft as easy to operate as a car, with similar operator training requirements?

I'm not talking about pilotless or remote controlled passenger aircraft. I'm talking about 1-4 passenger aircraft controlled by the "driver", with AI envelope protection taking the place of traditional pilot skills. The driver would not need to understand aerodynamics, flight controls, systems, airspace, weather, etc. Just drive the machine in 3 dimensions instead of 2.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Could AI make GA flying simple enough that real pilots are no longer necessary?

Will there one day be a class of aircraft as easy to operate as a car, with similar operator training requirements?

I'm not talking about pilotless or remote controlled passenger aircraft. I'm talking about 1-4 passenger aircraft controlled by the "driver", with AI envelope protection taking the place of traditional pilot skills. The driver would not need to understand aerodynamics, flight controls, systems, airspace, weather, etc. Just drive the machine in 3 dimensions instead of 2.
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I can see the appeal for those who just see personal aircraft as simply a means to get from point A to point B. But, how would that replace the guy flying a Cub for the fun of it?
 
so many kids today enjoy VR that would have been flying RC or real planes in the past…. AI is just another level of that.
 
It won’t replace private Part 91 anytime soon because pilots generally fly for the fun of it. There’s still a healthy amount of used and currently new GA aircraft that must be flown by humans. But, when you look at something like an SF50 with auto land, at some point there won’t be a need for pilots in GA 91/135 commercial ops.

In helicopters they’re (Skyryse) already making it as easy to fly a helicopter as an airplane. I’d say my job in 15-20 years will be replaced but I’ll be long retired by then. Even in the military, you’ve got autonomous Black Hawks in testing. Although by the time they get ready to enter service, they’ll be replaced by the Valor so there’s that. The tech exists, it’s just a matter of getting it approved / certified.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Could AI make GA flying simple enough that real pilots are no longer necessary?

Will there one day be a class of aircraft as easy to operate as a car, with similar operator training requirements?

I'm not talking about pilotless or remote controlled passenger aircraft. I'm talking about 1-4 passenger aircraft controlled by the "driver", with AI envelope protection taking the place of traditional pilot skills. The driver would not need to understand aerodynamics, flight controls, systems, airspace, weather, etc. Just drive the machine in 3 dimensions instead of 2.
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I don’t think that should happen. Simple reason: weather is too unpredictable and it is very changeable. One example: Almost by definition, the kind of GA pilot you envision the “driver” to be would be very susceptible to unforecast weather changes, and, without a fully trained pilots in the airplanes, I predict a pilot class with an alarming accident rate. AI has to get a lot better at judgement skills for me to be comfortable with that.

So: “Bah! Get Off My Lawn!”

-Skip
 
Ed Haywood said:
Could AI make GA flying simple enough that real pilots are no longer necessary?

Will there one day be a class of aircraft as easy to operate as a car, with similar operator training requirements?

I'm not talking about pilotless or remote controlled passenger aircraft. I'm talking about 1-4 passenger aircraft controlled by the "driver", with AI envelope protection taking the place of traditional pilot skills. The driver would not need to understand aerodynamics, flight controls, systems, airspace, weather, etc. Just drive the machine in 3 dimensions instead of 2.
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That's pretty close to the description of an Ercoupe....
;)
 
hmm, I don't think flying is really more difficult than driving.
 
Half Fast said:
That's pretty close to the description of an Ercoupe....
;)
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I was gonna say the same thing. They tried this with the Ercoupe. The plane anyone could fly. No rudder. Climb at 90, cruise at 90, land at 90. No need to adjust for cross wind, just land it in a crab. Buy it at a department store. I don't think it worked out how they envisioned it.
 
AI to fly the plane? The Cherokee I'm flying right now doesn't even have a working altitude hold.
 
Chrisgoesflying said:
I was gonna say the same thing. They tried this with the Ercoupe. The plane anyone could fly. No rudder. Climb at 90, cruise at 90, land at 90. No need to adjust for cross wind, just land it in a crab. Buy it at a department store. I don't think it worked out how they envisioned it.
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In fairness, the Ercoupe's demise was probably the result of market timing as much as anything else. The expected post-war boom in aircraft sales mostly fizzled. They did sell over 5000 of them, though. I wonder how a modern-day version, with more power, a glass panel, and a simple autopilot might sell today. The Ercoupe did accomplish "fly it like driving a car" simplicity without electronics or AI.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Could AI make GA flying simple enough that real pilots are no longer necessary?
Click to expand...
No need. There is already existing technology that can make that happen in conventional aircraft... just not at a price point for Part 91 private level. AI not required. However, it will be possible with e-powered-lift like eVTOLs as they have that capacity now with a configuration change and an additional sensor or two. But again, no AI needed. Now once you get into the Gen3 or Gen4 of the eVTOLs where the aircraft could take full advantage of AI, then sure. But by then it will be mostly autonomous and anybody could "fly" then.
 
Baked Potato said:
Quite often I feel like a third arm would be quite useful in the cockpit.
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I felt that way the first time I flew a Cherokee, coming from a Tecnam LSA. In the Tecnam, my right hand could be on the throttle with a finger on the flap control, while my left hand had the stick with a trim switch and PTT button. In the Cherokee, I was constantly reaching from the throttle up to the ceiling crank to trim or down to the floor to reach the flaps. It was distracting for a while.
 
Half Fast said:
I felt that way the first time I flew a Cherokee, coming from a Tecnam LSA. In the Tecnam, my right hand could be on the throttle with a finger on the flap control, while my left hand had the stick with a trim switch and PTT button. In the Cherokee, I was constantly reaching from the throttle up to the ceiling crank to trim or down to the floor to reach the flaps. It was distracting for a while.
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As someone who has flown an LSA built in the 21st century, going back to a plane older than I am certainly makes me appreciate modern amenities such as trim switches, touch screens, and the lack of an [obviously well used] ash tray.
 
This could possibly be a pretty good start here.

cirrusaircraft.com

VISION JET: SAFE RETURN

Discover how the Cirrus Vision Jet’s Safe Return Autoland feature offers passengers peace of mind with autonomous landing capabilities during emergencies.
cirrusaircraft.com cirrusaircraft.com
 
Ercoupe story I was told long ago, probably a yarn but funny none the less:

Student and instructor on final in an Ercoupe. The instructor, in the right seat, with his arms folded looking at the scenery out the right window figuring the student's got this under control but the landing was a bit harsh. So he turns to the student who is sitting in the left seat with his arms folded looking at the scenery out the left window.
 
Half Fast said:
That's pretty close to the description of an Ercoupe....
;)
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Nope. While they don’t require conventional rudder skills and are nigh (but not quite, I’ve read) stall and thus spin proof, they can develop a dangerous sink rate that they don’t have the power to arrest if mishandled on final. Easier to fly? Generally yes. Down to the level of just “driving?” Nope.
 
PostTenebrasLux said:
It clearly is. Virtually everyone with an IQ above room temperature (in F) can and does drive. Flying is not superhuman or anything but it is way more challenging than driving.
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I think it’s mainly because we’re exposed to cars and driving from a young age. It just feels more natural to us. Now that flying has kinda become second nature for me, i actually find flying way easier than driving overall.
 
Star Trek has pilots 300 years from now so I choose to believe there will always be a requirement for human pilots!

Otoh my 2024 garmin autopilot only needs a functional ai to drive it. Refer to the AI thread for when that might be.
 
Anyone know the wind parameters for the "auto-land" systems in the Cirrus Jet and SR-22? That really seems to be the limiting factor in how far the tech can take this. I've landed in some really squirrelly gusting winds with strong thermals in the mountains, and it is a hell of a workout for those last few moments. I'm having trouble envisioning AI handling those conditions well, especially because humans (should) have a sense of when it just isn't going to work, going around and trying again or going to an alternate.
 
Chrisgoesflying said:
I think it’s mainly because we’re exposed to cars and driving from a young age. It just feels more natural to us. Now that flying has kinda become second nature for me, i actually find flying way easier than driving overall.
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In some ways driving is harder. You are constantly in close proximity to traffic going in the opposite direction, at a speed where a head on collision would likely be fatal, and periodically have to turn across that traffic. There were 40K traffic deaths in the USA last year.
 
Ed Haywood said:
In some ways driving is harder. You are constantly in close proximity to traffic going in the opposite direction, at a speed where a head on collision would likely be fatal, and periodically have to turn across that traffic. There were 40K traffic deaths in the USA last year.
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as an aside: about 12,000 of those were due to drunk drivers.

wrt difficulty of driving vs flying, consider the ability of a drunk to takeoff, fly, and land without killing himself or others.
 
Ed Haywood said:
In some ways driving is harder. You are constantly in close proximity to traffic going in the opposite direction, at a speed where a head on collision would likely be fatal, and periodically have to turn across that traffic. There were 40K traffic deaths in the USA last year.
Click to expand...
I don’t think it’s so much “harder” as it is that the demand for precision in driving encompasses a much higher percentage of the trip than it does in flying.
 
Bell206 said:
No need. There is already existing technology that can make that happen in conventional aircraft... just not at a price point for Part 91 private level. AI not required. However, it will be possible with e-powered-lift like eVTOLs as they have that capacity now with a configuration change and an additional sensor or two. But again, no AI needed. Now once you get into the Gen3 or Gen4 of the eVTOLs where the aircraft could take full advantage of AI, then sure. But by then it will be mostly autonomous and anybody could "fly" then.
Click to expand...
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MOSAIC actually has provisions to facilitate this concept. Per Gemini:

"Under the FAA's MOSAIC (Modernization of Special Airworthiness Certification) rule, simplified flight controls refer to aircraft designs that use automation to prevent loss of control, allowing pilots to operate them with more intuitive controls similar to a video game controller, and requiring less hands-on manipulation of traditional control surfaces. Aircraft with these features need specific, model-based training for pilots to operate them, which can be less extensive than traditional flight training due to the built-in safety features."
 
They are working on it. The proposed 108 rules even try to make a case for drones having right-of-way over human traffiC.
 
All I can say is that I hope it doesn't come to this:

My uncle has a country place that no one knows about. He says it used to be a farm before the Motor Law. And on Sundays I elude the eyes and hop the Turbine Freight to far outside the Wire where my white-haired uncle waits.

Jump to the ground as the Turbo slows to cross the borderline. Run like the wind as excitement shivers up and down my spine. Down in his barn my uncle preserved for me an old machine for fifty odd years. To keep it as new has been his dearest dream.

I strip away the old debris that hides a shining plane. A brilliant yellow Piper from a better vanished time. I fire up the willing engine responding with a roar. Propeller spitting gravel I commit my weekly crime.
Wind in my hair, yanking and banking, mechanical music, adrenaline surge. Light as a feather, avgas and oil, the scented country air. Sunlight on wings, the blur of the landscape, every nerve aware.

Suddenly ahead of me across the cloudless sky, a gleaming jet fighter shoots towards me and flies by. I stomp the rudder and spin around to start the foolish race. I go slowly through the valley as another joins the chase.

Fly like the wind, straining the limits of machine and man. Laughing out loud with fear and hope, I've got a desperate plan. As I slow to near stall I leave the aces unable to pull alongside. I fly back to the farm to dream with my uncle at the fireside.
 
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