Tim Cobb
Pre-Flight
What is the big fear about flying in small airplanes? Seems like at least 1/2 the people I know won't even consider flying in one.
What is the big fear about flying in small airplanes? Seems like at least 1/2 the people I know won't even consider flying in one.
What is the big fear about flying in small airplanes? Seems like at least 1/2 the people I know won't even consider flying in one.
They think they will die. Based on our GA accident rate, it's not an unreasonable assumption.
I think their fear is based on Hollywood. Ever noticed how as soon as the engine quits in a movie or on TV the plane goes into a spin, straight into the ground? We know better, but to many in the public, movies are reality. Sad, but true.
GA aircraft are completely unfamiliar to the majority of the non-flying public. People are naturally afraid of the unfamiliar. The media could be of help, but the only thing they get from the media is that small aircraft crash all the time. So something utterly unfamiliar that crashes all the time. Ought to be a law against it.
Compared to what.
Cars?
Motorcycles?
Jet Ski's?
ATV?
Snowmobiles?
crosswalks?
bathtubs?
Office chairs?
Thanks to the NTSB, flying is one of the few activies where you can see on an almost weekly bases how many serious accidents occur? Even there I think you can see that less then 20% of them involve fatalities.
Flying is safe enough they can count them, for many of activities above, accidents are so common place the usually often don't even make the local newspaper.
Brian
Compared to what.
Cars?
Motorcycles?
Jet Ski's?
ATV?
Snowmobiles?
crosswalks?
bathtubs?
Office chairs?
Thanks to the NTSB, flying is one of the few activies where you can see on an almost weekly bases how many serious accidents occur? Even there I think you can see that less then 20% of them involve fatalities.
Flying is safe enough they can count them, for many of activities above, accidents are so common place the usually often don't even make the local newspaper.
Brian
Compared to what.
Cars?
Motorcycles?
Jet Ski's?
ATV?
Snowmobiles?
crosswalks?
bathtubs?
Office chairs?
On the other hand, take out obvious pilot mistakes like VFR into IMC and running out of gas, and GA becomes far safer. Unfortunately, year after year pilots fly into IMC and run out of gas. So it's dangerous. Even if you're packing heat.
GA can be far, far safer.
- Check your fuel
- Check your airplane
- Check the weather
I really doubt that the GA accident rate is higher than it is for cars. Very very much doubt it. I bet that you can almost double the reported accident rate for cars for smaller accidents that don't get reported to the police. I don't think you can do the same for planes.Doesn't matter what it's compared to, the GA accident rate is unacceptably high, and unfortunately much higher than cars. Even more unfortunate is that a very high percentage are due to pilot stupidity.
Exactly. I'd much rather be involved in an activity that is very dangerous if you make a mistake you can easily avoid vs. an activity that is somewhat dangerous no matter what you do.
- Check your fuel
- Check your airplane
- Check the weather
GA can be far, far safer.
I really doubt that the GA accident rate is higher than it is for cars. Very very much doubt it. I bet that you can almost double the reported accident rate for cars for smaller accidents that don't get reported to the police. I don't think you can do the same for planes.
Anyways, it's virtually impossible to get comparable data for those two cases, and it's equally impossible to make such statements about them.
-Felix
I really doubt that the GA accident rate is higher than it is for cars. Very very much doubt it. I bet that you can almost double the reported accident rate for cars for smaller accidents that don't get reported to the police. I don't think you can do the same for planes.
Anyways, it's virtually impossible to get comparable data for those two cases, and it's equally impossible to make such statements about them.
-Felix
The accident rate is so much higher for aircraft than cars that it is utterly ridiculous. As a group we are unsafe, no doubts there. If there were more of us, airplane crashes wouldn't be newsworthy because there'd be so many of them. Then again, if there were more of us some idiot would have plowed into a school full of kids or something equally tragic and we'd all be legislated out of business.
What is the big fear about flying in small airplanes? Seems like at least 1/2 the people I know won't even consider flying in one.
I agree with you that this is the perception, but I'm not sure what it is based on. I can't say that GA's overall safety record is better than cars, nor can I say that it's worse. First of all, there's very little useful data. Secondly, all those statistics are based on a bunch of assumptions and data that isn't directly comparable. Are we comparing accidents per passenger per mile? Or number of accidents? Or something else entirely? Are we talking about GA (which doesn't seem to be fair when making comparisons to casual driving, since GA includes all sorts of inherently risky activities)?If you are correct, shouldn't there be at least one credible reporting agency whose published data supports your theory? When even the most staunch GA supporters agree that our safety record is a POS, who else is in our corner?
I really doubt that the GA accident rate is higher than it is for cars. Very very much doubt it. I bet that you can almost double the reported accident rate for cars for smaller accidents that don't get reported to the police. I don't think you can do the same for planes.
Anyways, it's virtually impossible to get comparable data for those two cases, and it's equally impossible to make such statements about them.
-Felix
What is the big fear about flying in small airplanes? Seems like at least 1/2 the people I know won't even consider flying in one.
I don't doubt all this. First, I don't know how this could be compared to driving, which I think is more relevant to the original question.When I was learning back in the 70's, I had no clue what the safety record was. I just relied that who I flew with (CFI) was well trained and would train be well as well. Well, fast forward 35 years of no flying, I decide to get back into it. One of the first things I studied was the NTSB site. I was shocked at how many accidents occurred. But, then, I also checked back what it was back in the 70's. Apparently, back then the accident rate was more than twice as high.
Sure, there are many ways to look at the data. It all depends on how you want to look at it. For me, I chose to look at the fatality rate and to put it in perspective, on average, if I were to make it to the 1,000 hour flying time mark, then I would have a 1 in 100 probability of a fatal accident.
Or, put another way, if 100 of us pilots were to fly to the 1000 hour level, then on average, one of us will have a fatal accident. To me, that seems a steep risk level. So, myself, like many other pilots assume that we will perform better than average and make fewer mistakes...
There is a lot of data on the NTSB site.
I agree with you that this is the perception, but I'm not sure what it is based on. I can't say that GA's overall safety record is better than cars, nor can I say that it's worse. First of all, there's very little useful data. Secondly, all those statistics are based on a bunch of assumptions and data that isn't directly comparable. Are we comparing accidents per passenger per mile? Or number of accidents? Or something else entirely? Are we talking about GA (which doesn't seem to be fair when making comparisons to casual driving, since GA includes all sorts of inherently risky activities)?
I just don't see how these two modes of transportation can be compared in a useful way, especially since the sample size for GA is so tiny compared to that of cars. _One_ accident for GA can change the entire dynamic.
-Felix
We have used the old line, 'the most dangerous part of this trip was the drive to the airport.' But statistically, it's not true. You're seven times more likely to have a fatality in a general aviation (GA) airplane than you are in a car, per mile. People say, well, per hour is what counts, so, okay, say 3 1/2 times as likely, because an airplane is twice as fast. The point is, you're more likely to have a fatality in a GA airplane than in a car, traveling the same distance.
Airlines, on the other hand, are 49 times safer than GA per mile. So cars are seven times more dangerous than airlines. So where that old song came from are the airlines. The airlines have a phenomenal safety record. They have turbine equipment they're flying standardized routes, with more than one pilot, dispatchers to help them out, etc. That's why they're safe. General aviation planes don't meet that record. A Bonanza does not have the same kind of guarantees that come with a transport category aircraft.
Yes, exactly. Which is why I'm not interested in challenging any numbers. I'm simply pointing out that there isn't enough data that is relevant to this discussion.But if you're going to challenge the numbers, you need to accumulate and publish your data, rather than offering opinions and conjecture about stuff that has been pored over by the best number-crunchers the industry can find. If you can, they will beat a path to your door. If you can't, they are going to keep reporting the same stuff.
I don't doubt all this. First, I don't know how this could be compared to driving, which I think is more relevant to the original question.
snip...
-Felix
This is particularly true of "reality TV"... but I digress.Reality and TV are mutually exclusive.
There's plenty of relevant data, just none that fits your perception of the situation.Yes, exactly. Which is why I'm not interested in challenging any numbers. I'm simply pointing out that there isn't enough data that is relevant to this discussion.