Where Midairs Occur

wanttaja

wanttaja

Final Approach
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Ron Wanttaja
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Still working on the next "Myths of Misadventures" article. Looked into the midairs associated with about 22,000 accidents (122 midairs, 245 aircraft). Thought this was interesting:
1776366425664.png
Sixty percent of midairs happen outside the traffic pattern... where a common radio frequency may not be in use.

Ron "Spot the oddity" Wanttaja
 
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For the midairs in maneuvering flight, how many were flying formation, and how many were trainers in practice areas?
 
sarangan said:
Looks like base leg is the best place to be.
Click to expand...
Crosswind not represented!

But yeah, downwind and final are much more well-worn paths than base, where every pilot kind of uses their judgement as to when to make the turn.
 
wanttaja said:
Sixty percent of midairs happen outside the traffic pattern... where a common radio frequency may not be in use.
Click to expand...

Any data on percent of en route or maneuvering collisions where the pilots (at least one) were talking to ATC, either on an IFR plan or Flight Following? What about formation flight collisions?
 
ateamer said:
For the midairs in maneuvering flight, how many were flying formation, and how many were trainers in practice areas?
Click to expand...
The formation aspect was interesting. Out of the 122 midairs, 15 happened during formation flight. One involved a "breakfast flight" of six. Another was two jump airplanes flying together.

The other fun bit was gliders. Nine midairs involving gliders, of which six were between two of them. Otherwise, it was cases involving gliders and tow planes. One was the "oddity" I hinted at in the first posting...the reason there was an odd number of aircraft involved in midairs. A towplane pulling a glider was hit by a Cirrus.

The total also included three midairs with drones.

There is some interest in the "Maneuvering" ones...I've attached a summary from my working sheet. The "Comments" are my own, based on reading the narrative. If you do an online search for these accidents, leave off the "A" at the end of the NTSB number.

Ron Wanttaja
 

Attachments

Flying Keys said:
Crosswind not represented!
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Yeah, that's a good catch. None of the "Occurrence Description" provided by the NTSB report mentioned crosswind for this set of accidents. Will have to be satisfied with the "Initial Climb" one. Four of the cases were also listed as "Enroute-climb to cruise Midair collision", which might encompass the crosswind leg. They're included in my "Enroute" group.

Ron Wanttaja
 
I'd be more interested in the accident rate per unit of time spent in each phase. There's a lot of accident-free time spent enroute compared to the time spent on final.
 
MauleSkinner said:
Probably also the amount of time spent on base is relatively small compared to downwind and/or final, too.
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I suspect part of the problem is focusing on the final bits of the landing during final. We all want the landing to go well, and the head may well come off the swivel as the plane nears the end of Final.

Then, too, you've got those who think that transmitting that they're on final means they *own* the runway, and everyone else should stay clear.....

Ron Wanttaja
 
This one is pretty worrisome:

AX08FA265A 8/10/2008 2008 3 CESSNA R172K Cirrus SR22 5 miles from airport Cirrus talking to center, nothing from​
Cessna​

Did Center not provide a traffic alert to the Cirrus?
 
Half Fast said:
This one is pretty worrisome:

AX08FA265A 8/10/2008 2008 3 CESSNA R172K Cirrus SR22 5 miles from airport Cirrus talking to center, nothing from​
Cessna​

Did Center not provide a traffic alert to the Cirrus?
Click to expand...
The Baron pilot in this midair stated in his initial call that he’d had a midair “with an airplane that you didn’t point out to me,” or words to that effect…36+ years doesn’t do wonders for my memory, but he sounded pretty ****ed at the controller.


Fortunately both survived.
 
Thanks for that info,reinforcing the believe is you can’t relax in any phase of flying.
 
The closest I've come to a midair was a Super Cub that suddenly appeared on my 9 o'clock and slightly below as I turned base from a normal 45 entry and downwind. I'd called my 45 and my downwind and was calling the turn to base when I saw him fly 45 to the final. He dragged the field and touched down at the far end, where the fuel pumps were.

The 2nd closest was a guy that appeared off my right wingtip same altitude and direction, and close enough to give me quite a start as I leveled off from a loop. I'd flown out to an area away from everything, done clearing turns and announced that I was performing aerobatic maneuvers on a CTAF used by a couple of up-river strips that were closest but still 5 or more miles away. I never saw the guy before he appeared on my wingtip. And the pilot, who had his head down apparently looking at his iPad, didn't see me right away.
 
Half Fast said:
This one is pretty worrisome:

AX08FA265A 8/10/2008 2008 3 CESSNA R172K Cirrus SR22 5 miles from airport Cirrus talking to center, nothing from​
Cessna​

Did Center not provide a traffic alert to the Cirrus?
Click to expand...

Anyone that's been on POA for long has probably heard my near miss story head-on with a wrong direction Mooney at cruise altitude. I was talking to Center, they did not even paint it on their radar.
 
wanttaja said:
The formation aspect was interesting. Out of the 122 midairs, 15 happened during formation flight. One involved a "breakfast flight" of six. Another was two jump airplanes flying together.

The other fun bit was gliders. Nine midairs involving gliders, of which six were between two of them. Otherwise, it was cases involving gliders and tow planes. One was the "oddity" I hinted at in the first posting...the reason there was an odd number of aircraft involved in midairs. A towplane pulling a glider was hit by a Cirrus.

The total also included three midairs with drones.

There is some interest in the "Maneuvering" ones...I've attached a summary from my working sheet. The "Comments" are my own, based on reading the narrative. If you do an online search for these accidents, leave off the "A" at the end of the NTSB number.

Ron Wanttaja
Click to expand...

It might be more useful to categorize some of those maneuvering midairs as "near the airport". Maybe 5 mile radius.
 
MauleSkinner said:
@wanttaja , any idea where “final” ends and “landing” begins in the data?
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The NTSB dictionary merely says the parameter describes where the accident occurred. If I were to hazard a guess, I suspect that if the wreckage ends up on the airport grounds, it's "Landing". That's how I'd categorize it.

There's only 122 cases, I should go through and read the narratives to define my own.

Ron Wanttaja
 
Ed Haywood said:
It might be more useful to categorize some of those maneuvering midairs as "near the airport". Maybe 5 mile radius.
Click to expand...
That's reasonable, but I kind of think the primary goal was to determine if the pilots were/should have been listening to the local CTAF. Not sure that kind of data is going to come out. I usually turn down the radio once I'm clear of the pattern.

Ron Wanttaja
 
bonefishpete said:
Enroute number seems high.
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Surprised me, too. Some of them are cases where pilots intended to fly together to a destination (although not in formation) and bumped on the way. In another, two unassociated aircraft take off a few minutes apart going to the same location and the second one is faster and rams the first.

This sounds like fall-out from GPS-based navigation and coupled autopilots.

Anyway, here are some report numbers if you're interested.
ANC11FA062
WPR12FA020
WPR12LA109
CEN12FA199
WPR13FA211
CEN14LA036
WPR14FA283
WPR15FA010
WPR16LA146
WPR16FA148
ERA16FA324
ERA18LA055
ANC18FA045
ERA18FA194
CEN19LA074
CEN19IA234


Ron Wanttaja
 
wanttaja said:
Still working on the next "Myths of Misadventures" article. Looked into the midairs associated with about 22,000 accidents (122 midairs, 245 aircraft). Thought this was interesting:
View attachment 151507
Sixty percent of midairs happen outside the traffic pattern... where a common radio frequency may not be in use.

Ron "Spot the oddity" Wanttaja
Click to expand...
Your statistics notwithstanding, according to FAA data most mid-air collisions occur within 5 miles of an airport and below 1,000 feet AGL.
 
wanttaja said:
Still working on the next "Myths of Misadventures" article. Looked into the midairs associated with about 22,000 accidents (122 midairs, 245 aircraft). Thought this was interesting:
View attachment 151507
Sixty percent of midairs happen outside the traffic pattern... where a common radio frequency may not be in use.

Ron "Spot the oddity" Wanttaja
Click to expand...
Planes spend way, way, way, way, way more than 60% of their time and miles en route. So in the pattern seems way overrepresented.
 
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I've seen a few planes WAY closer than I wanted to - Within a couple hundred feet, several times.

Funniest thing, I haven't had a single such encounter since ADS-B became common.
 
I can't explain much of this, but I can explain base... As mentioned above, you don't spend much time on base.

Add to that: Nobody flies a 7 mile base. Nobody announces being on base and has someone else think "I can cut in front of them"...and even if they do, they're going to meet each other on final. I've never heard of someone entering the pattern on base. Unlike final, the base line of flight can be different, distant and parallel from other traffic on base. Straight in and instrument approaches aren't on base.

I like the stats. For this one, I'm curious as to the breakdown between controlled and uncontrolled airports, and for cruise flight I'm curious as to the percentage vs altitude for those flying single aircraft straight and level flight.
 
Albany Tom said:
Nobody announces being on base and has someone else think "I can cut in front of them"...and even if they do, they're going to meet each other on final.
Click to expand...
I've cut in front of somebody else and turned base inside them at the same time, usually when they're flying their bomber pattern so far past the field that I think they're departing the area instead of staying in the pattern. Flying a biplane, I keep it tight, and in such situations I'm on the ground and off the runway around the time I turn final.
Albany Tom said:
I've never heard of someone entering the pattern on base.
Click to expand...
Happens at tower fields all the time, and I'll do it at my (uncontrolled) home field if I'm coming from that direction and traffic allows it, i.e. nobody on downwind. Non standard, yup, but sometimes the best (and safest) approach in a slow airplane. But I'll always announce what I'm doing, and make a second base call when I'm on a "normal" base.

I've had a few near misses in the pattern, all on downwind. Once in a NORDO Cub with an instructor, a guy in a Cherokee flew less than 20 feet above us and landed in front of us. I talked to the pilot on the ground, he never saw us. Once in an ultralight (and I was using the radio), guy in some kind of low wing flew close over me and just kept on going, never landing. And once a light twin passed close to me doing a midfield crosswind as I was on downwind, even people on the ground commented on that one. And just once away from the airport, I was playing in the practice area just finishing a loop when a T-37 flashed by under me close enough that I could see the pilots in the cockpit.
 
midwestpa24 said:
Anyone that's been on POA for long has probably heard my near miss story head-on with a wrong direction Mooney at cruise altitude. I was talking to Center, they did not even paint it on their radar.
Click to expand...

Old wood wing Mooney, maybe? My wood-and-fabric airplane with a wood prop does not create enough radar signature to present as a primary target when I've inquired with ATC.
 
Dana said:
I've cut in front of somebody else and turned base inside them at the same time, usually when they're flying their bomber pattern so far past the field that I think they're departing the area instead of staying in the pattern. Flying a biplane, I keep it tight, and in such situations I'm on the ground and off the runway around the time I turn final.
Click to expand...
That I've seen....but if someone miscalculates and there's a problem, the problem is going to be on final, not really on base, because the two base legs are probably miles apart from each other.
 
The two mid-air collisions that involved friends of friends were both on a STAR into the DFW area and that was in the 80's. Both airplanes were on an IFR flight plan and hit planes that were not. One made it to the airport the other did not and everyone died.

Close to 9 months ago we had one that surprised us at KTHA. We had canceled IFR and crossed over the field to enter the left downwind for 24. There was one trainer on the radio doing an approach to 6 circle to 24. I thought we were in front of them. They did a RIGHT circle and we both ended up head to head on base. We went around, our system said traffic 12 o'clock less than one-mile, same altitude, and the passengers heard it, not great. The other plane departed the airport area. I did see the other plane just before the alert. We should have paid more attention to the scope.

Unfortunately, we did not have enough time to go to the Beech museum there.
 
I admit to being a base criminal. I sometimes fly a 5 mile base when coming back from acro practice. The landmarks from my acro practice area just line up right. I yield to anyone on downwind or final though.
 
:) You guys are giving me something new to look out for. Thanks...

I've only had 2 really close calls that I'm aware of. Both as a passenger.

One of those was over an airport at pattern height, overflying the field at 90 degrees. We were going north to south, ready to enter the pattern, and I believe on the CTAF. The other aircraft was just flying along south to north, same altitude, and passed by us about 200 feet away. Saw them as they went by.

The other passenger one was back in the 90's, riding along in a 182 over Lake George. I saw the wheels of the other aircraft as it passed by us with maybe 20 feet to spare. To this day I haven't myself flown over Lake George. I just don't see a compelling reason to do so.
 
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