What will the price of oil be in 1M, 6M, 1Y?

FORANE

FORANE

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Where do you guys think the price of oil is heading?

Anyone buying oil ETF's?
 
Oil tanker rates are going up as there are some hedge funds that are speculating they can buy oil today, stick it on a tanker for 6 months, pay for the ship and the crew to anchor, then sell the oil for more than the cost of the storage and the oil.


Of course, somebody else was more than happy to sell them the oil, today and cash their check.
 
I will leave this up to someone much smarter than me, I would say in one year it will be higher than today. Am I willing to bet, gamble or buy futures, nope.:dunno:
Of course, if you had asked that same question 12 months ago, I likely would have said it would be higher today! :mad2:
 
It should bottom in 5-6 months around $40 a bbl, then rise back up to 60-65 by the end of the year. At least according to an expert economist I heard tonight. It will affect shale more than anything, and there will be ripple effects in other businesses in the energy areas in the US.
 
Stay low through the election, then whammo back to the sky. Since the whole thing is fixed and a R will win, the Ds will have someone to blame. And the Rs will take solace that their guy is now the one screwing all of us (with the same exact policies as the last few guys no matter the letter.)
 
Current forward strip from CME group (I don't know them, just came up on google). Anyway, these are the types of numbers a bank will loan on since production can be hedged to these numbers.

Month Options Charts Last Change Prior Settle Open High Low Volume Hi / Low Limit Updated
FEB 2015 FEB 2015 Show Price Chart 46.30 +0.05 46.25 46.35 46.79 45.95 4,756 56.25 / 36.25 20:22:32 CT
15 Jan 2015
MAR 2015 MAR 2015 Show Price Chart 46.76 +0.03 46.73 46.73 47.27 46.40 7,744 56.73 / 36.73 20:22:32 CT
15 Jan 2015
APR 2015 APR 2015 Show Price Chart 47.48 +0.01 47.47 47.52 47.96 b 47.17 880 57.47 / 37.47 20:22:32 CT
15 Jan 2015
MAY 2015 MAY 2015 Show Price Chart 48.29 a -0.01 48.30 48.12 48.76 47.99 185 58.30 / 38.30 20:22:32 CT
15 Jan 2015
JUN 2015 JUN 2015 Show Price Chart 49.05 -0.05 49.10 49.13 49.56 48.78 517 59.10 / 39.10 20:22:03 CT
15 Jan 2015
JUL 2015 JUL 2015 Show Price Chart 49.87 +0.02 49.85 49.83 50.28 b 49.59 115 59.85 / 39.85 20:21:45 CT
15 Jan 2015
AUG 2015 AUG 2015 Show Price Chart 50.79 a +0.22 50.57 50.30 50.90 b 50.25 51 60.57 / 40.57 20:21:02 CT
15 Jan 2015
SEP 2015 SEP 2015 Show Price Chart 51.35 a +0.06 51.29 - 51.73 b 51.35 a 56 61.29 / 41.29 20:21:39 CT
15 Jan 2015
OCT 2015 OCT 2015 Show Price Chart 52.01 a +0.05 51.96 - 52.36 b - 8 61.96 / 41.96 20:21:26 CT
15 Jan 2015
NOV 2015 NOV 2015 Show Price Chart 52.68 a +0.06 52.62 - 53.02 b - 8 62.62 / 42.62 20:21:32 CT
15 Jan 2015
DEC 2015 DEC 2015 Show Price Chart 53.32 a +0.05 53.27 53.00 53.76 b 52.90 300 63.27 / 43.27 20:22:27 CT
15 Jan 2015
JAN 2016 JAN 2016 Show Price Chart 53.84 a +0.05 53.79 - 54.24 b 53.84 a 9 63.79 / 43.79 20:21:31 CT
15 Jan 2015
 
Hell, if I could answer that question I'd never work another day in my life . . . .
 
Henning said:
What crude is that on? Brent?
Click to expand...

prolly nymex..I didn't pay 'tention since it was just an example

Anyway, the oil companies and OPEC are taking the banks to the cleaners right now since they have hedges in place. We won't see a production drop until the hedges are paid. OPEC has played this game before.
 
Henning said:
Sure, and we keep playing it, doesn't make sense to me.
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yup, it's crazy but it is what it is...hedging is intended to bring stability to the market but it's just another tool which can be used many ways... what ya do now as a producer is stop hedging (if you can) and wait for the rebound. Many producers are leveraged and are required to hedge by loan covenants. They really get zapped by these situations unless their lender will give them relief. Chances are their lender is also handling their hedges so the outcome is not good. Wanna buy a slightly distressed oil company? only take a few hundred billion...
 
JoseCuervo said:
Oil tanker rates are going up as there are some hedge funds that are speculating they can buy oil today, stick it on a tanker for 6 months, pay for the ship and the crew to anchor, then sell the oil for more than the cost of the storage and the oil.


Of course, somebody else was more than happy to sell them the oil, today and cash their check.
Click to expand...

There are still tankers sitting offshore with $110 dollar a barrel oil in them.:yes:

Gotta love the speculators.:rolleyes2:
 
Henning said:
Lenders don't give relief, they take assets.
Click to expand...

it depends an whether or not they want the asset...these situations can go a bunch of different ways - a loan on an oilfield isn't like a loan on an airplane
 
Clark1961 said:
it depends an whether or not they want the asset...these situations can go a bunch of different ways - a loan on an oilfield isn't like a loan on an airplane
Click to expand...

True, an oilfield can make you money.:rofl: (though not too much currently)
 
Well SLB just announced 9K layoffs, so I'd imagine they see price going down towards the mid-40's within a month or two, but probably a rise and stall out around $60 by year-end. 1Y I'd probably put it at $75-80 or so on brent.
 
TEFLONSEAN said:
There are still tankers sitting offshore with $110 dollar a barrel oil in them.:yes:



Gotta love the speculators.:rolleyes2:
Click to expand...


Unfortunately I recently sold shares of a tanker company in order to capture the loss to offset other profits.



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