What attributes do you think new MOSAIC compliant LSA aircraft should have to return General Aviation to 10,000 aircraft sales per year?

Ed Haywood said:
Buying a USED airplane still is attainable for the middle class. I know plenty of average Joes with a plane, and a few where their plane is literally the only asset they have. But the premise of this thread seems to be that MOSAIC will result in production of affordable NEW airplanes that an "average Joe" can afford. That's probably not going to happen, and I doubt it ever really was the case.

Now, is it possible that a well constructed set of regs might result in NEW airplanes that are affordable to, say, the top 20% of the population? Sure. And might those planes become used planes that are affordable to a median income buyer after 5 or 10 years. I think so.
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I agree. I think for this discussion (spurring 10K new aircraft sales) pretty much necessitates that the purchase price be much lower to give the average Joe any chance at all. I do concur that it's all a pipe dream anyway.
 
Buying a plane and keeping a plane maintained and sheltered are two different financial tasks.
 
X3 Skier said:
Wonderful, Let's kick the can further down the street. Has Lucy taken her football to the FAA?
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Yep, as usual, it's the FAA's fault.

"Since publication, the FAA received 10 comments from individuals requesting that comment period not be extended. The FAA has also received requests from Aircraft Electronics Association, Aeronautical Repair Station Association, Aviation Suppliers Association, Aviation Technician Education Council, Helicopter Association International, International Air Response, Inc., Modification and Replacement Parts Association, and the National Air Transportation Association to extend the comment period by an additional ninety (90) days. These commenters requested more time to review the proposed rule and associated guidance documents, and to develop comments and recommendations."
 
midlifeflyer said:
Yep, as usual, it's the FAA's fault.

"Since publication, the FAA received 10 comments from individuals requesting that comment period not be extended. The FAA has also received requests from Aircraft Electronics Association, Aeronautical Repair Station Association, Aviation Suppliers Association, Aviation Technician Education Council, Helicopter Association International, International Air Response, Inc., Modification and Replacement Parts Association, and the National Air Transportation Association to extend the comment period by an additional ninety (90) days. These commenters requested more time to review the proposed rule and associated guidance documents, and to develop comments and recommendations."
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Seems like mostly organizations with a vested interest in preserving the current system's barriers to entry. Hopefully I am wrong.
 
midlifeflyer said:
Yep, as usual, it's the FAA's fault.

"Since publication, the FAA received 10 comments from individuals requesting that comment period not be extended. The FAA has also received requests from Aircraft Electronics Association, Aeronautical Repair Station Association, Aviation Suppliers Association, Aviation Technician Education Council, Helicopter Association International, International Air Response, Inc., Modification and Replacement Parts Association, and the National Air Transportation Association to extend the comment period by an additional ninety (90) days. These commenters requested more time to review the proposed rule and associated guidance documents, and to develop comments and recommendations."
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So dummies like me and the Pilots groups like AOPA and EAA and Manufacturers like GAMA and others can get their items in on time but these guys are so Effiing Big and Bureaucratic they need more time?????? HAve EAA and AOPA aasked for more time? What's so hard to understand about this proposed rule since i see none of these guys are OEM's for airplanes AFAIK except maybe the Helo bunch. The rest look like reactionaries who want the status quo monopoly for maintenance and parts.
 
X3 Skier said:
So dummies like me and the Pilots groups like AOPA and EAA and Manufacturers like GAMA and others can get their items in on time but these guys are so Effiing Big and Bureaucratic they need more time?????? HAve EAA and AOPA aasked for more time? What's so hard to understand about this proposed rule since i see none of these guys are OEM's for airplanes AFAIK except maybe the Helo bunch. The rest look like reactionaries who want the status quo monopoly for maintenance and parts.
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The usual complaint is that the FAA doesn't pay attention to comments, so I guess you can't make everyone happy. Yeah, I'd like to see a final rule more quickly too (not just here) but I accept the reality that extensions of comment periods is so common as to practically be an SOP.
 
TJB said:
My suggestions for manufacturers of new MOSAIC compliant LSA aircraft to sale thousands a year are:
1. Cruise airspeed of at least 150 knots.
2. Cabin interior width at least 42 inches.
3. Four seats.
4. Fixed tricycle landing gear.
5. Full aircraft parachute.
6. Air Conditioning.
7. Full glass panel with two axis autopilot.
8. IFR compliant for IMC conditions.
9. Fun to fly with good control harmony.
10. Priced around $300,000 in 2023 US dollars.

With the new Rotax 916is engine this is attainable. I see new LSA aircraft under the current(old) rules listed new for under $300,000 with Garmin glass avionics and aircraft parachutes. I know the Rotax 916is cost more than a 912is and the current LSA aircraft do not have air conditioning but they were restricted to 1320 pounds gross weight. The new MOSAIC rules for LSA aircraft do not have any weight restriction, only a clean stall speed restriction of 54 knots.

Tell us what attributes you think new, MOSAIC compliant LSA aircraft should have with the new MOSAIC rules.
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Let’s lower #10 down to maybe $100k.
 
MauleSkinner said:
Keep in mind that “garageable” airplanes were big in the early EAA days as well.

I wonder if “10 minutes from trailer hitch to ready to fly” would have any impact on sales. Probably not, since towing is beyond a lot of people’s capacity, too.
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As I don’t own a pickup truck or a trailer, the cost of purchasing both these items would pay for a considerable amount of hanger rent.
 
DMD3. said:
As I don’t own a pickup truck or a trailer, the cost of purchasing both these items would pay for a considerable amount of hanger rent.
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The beauty of garageable airplanes is that you need neither.
 
To answer the original question, MOSAIC can directly increase GA sales by bridging the gap between current LSA planes and part 23 planes. This can be done primarily by MOSAIC's increase to gross weight limit and relaxing certification to ATSM standards, both of which will allow for planes that are more useful than current LSA rules allow but less costly and more simple to own, operate and maintain than part 23 planes.

But no rule change can get GA back to 10k new planes sold annually, and I hope this data will make it clear why:

In 1978:
There were 17,811 GA planes sold.
A Cessna 172P cost $44k brand new.
The median household income was $15k, or 35% of the cost of a new Cessna.
The median salary for CEOs was $225,000 or 15X the median household income.

In 2023:
Just over 4,000 GA planes sold, nearly an 80% decline.
A Cessna 172S costs around $400k new depending on options, a 9X increase.
The median household income was $74,500, a 5X increase that lowers median inc to just 18% of the cost of a new Cessna.
The median salary for CEOs was $26,149,500 or 351X the median household income.

Bear in mind that with inflation, $ amounts in 2023 SHOULD be only 4.5X higher than in 1978 but that is obviously not what happened. Those at the top are outpacing inflation by light years, while the rest of us are barely keeping up with it. Meanwhile, the prices of GA planes are doubling the inflation rate because tax laws were written to let the wealthy deduct what they owe based on how expensive their private plane is, which perversely incentivizes raising prices. And when the wealthy pay less taxes, there's less money to fund municipal airports which is why they are shutting at such an alarming rate.

THAT is why we can't afford new planes anymore. The Big Bosses at the top are taking home so much of the pie, we can barely feed ourselves on the crumbs left to us. Forget lawsuits, forget regulations, forget all the lies you've been told to distract you from the truth. GA is a luxury hobby, and until we all take the blinders off and stop cheerleading this messed up form of Death By Capitalism, there won't be a middle class left to afford luxury hobbies.
 
Cessna quit making a proper tailwheel aircraft in 1956 when the Land-O-Matic training gear came out. I will keep my ‘54 thanks.
 
Short of maybe giving them away for free - maybe - nothing will ever bring back that volume. Training costs have skyrocketed in real terms. As has insurance. Plus flying is waaay more complicated than it used to be in much of the country because airspace in much of the country is much more complicated. You don’t have a qualified (or quality) mechanic at every two-bit field anymore. Yeah the Golden Age of GenAv is over.
 
DeadStick said:
... THAT is why we can't afford new planes anymore. The Big Bosses at the top are taking home so much of the pie, we can barely feed ourselves on the crumbs left to us. Forget lawsuits, forget regulations, forget all the lies you've been told to distract you from the truth. GA is a luxury hobby, and until we all take the blinders off and stop cheerleading this messed up form of Death By Capitalism, there won't be a middle class left to afford luxury hobbies.
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I'm not going to join that argument, but will quibble with your terminology. Capitalism is a general term meaning only that the means of production and other property are largely owned and operated by private individuals or groups. It has many variations, some of which tend to concentrate wealth & power as you suggest, others that do not, and some that can go either way depending on other factors. Thus Capitalism itself would not kill GA in the manner you describe, but some variations of it might, such as Plutocracy or Oligarchy.

Indeed, Capitalism is what made GA possible in the first place, and GA doesn't exist under any other economic system. All the countries in the world today having active GA - the USA, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Iceland and others - have different variations of Capitalist economic systems.
 
Domenick said:
Two of the many issues driving the death of GA is new aircraft cost AND pilot training. To expand the number of new planes bought the number of customers must be increased.

MOSAIC would have to bring the cost of a new plane down to the cost of a mid-level SUV, but it can't make more people interested in traversing the arduous path to pilotdom.
Neither will ever happen.
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Exactly. No one wants to spend the time and effort to learn to fly. And then to maintain those skills.

And if they have a family, convincing the family that they want to be involved.

And then, what do you do with it if you have it? How many $300 hamburgers (corrected for current costs) can you eat?

When I had a sailboat, the rule of thumb is you had to have two areas of use, preferably 3, to make it reasonable. Areas were things like racing, cruising, day sailing, etc. Most people that only did one, lost interest in a year or two.

And the current non-inflation (officially) inflation (actual hit to pocket) is not helping matters. When a fast food stop is over $50 for a family of 4, that cuts into things like flying.
 
Pinecone said:
I have recently heard of something that could drive numbers up.

It seems in the senior dating world, the current hot line for guys is that they are a pilot and own a plane. :D
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Good for one date. Once she sees the guy’s 1967 172 with bad paint and worn upholstery, instead of the Gulfstream she expected, the love fades.....
 
IK04 said:
There were over 13,000 Cessna 120/140s built and sold in 1946 alone and production didn't slow down much the next model year...
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There were also 435,000 US pilots trained in the proceeding 5 years.
 
Two big pushes of aircraft sales IMHO. First was post WWII when a lot of returning servicemen wanted to keep or start flying. Second was these servicemen or others in the late 1970s with the discretionary income after raising their families to finally purchase the airplane they had been dreaming of.

Both of these pushes were driven by a plane crazy society and a plethora of new airports being built(!).

Don't see that today - there are always people who aspire to fly and own an airplane, but doubt there's 10,000 a year ever again. It was a moment in time. And the loss of many suburban airports has lessened the utility but since it's been a 50 year process one cut at a time, it's not as apparent.

As for costs, in a day and age where a mass produced pick-up can run up to 100k, the idea than a handbuilt aircraft will cost 200k is not realistic. Small numbers and little to no OUS outsourcing keep the prices high.
 
Steamflyer said:
Two big pushes of aircraft sales IMHO.
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Yes, but I think there's a third reason for the decline in GA sales, and that's the dramatic drop in the cost of commercial airline travel. That changed the balance sheet analysis for business travel, and for some personal travel, too.

Plus, another reason for the decline is that there's now a good (though declining) inventory of satisfactory used aircraft available. Potential purchasers choose between factory new and something 30+ years old and often find that the older plane can do the job and can be purchased for far less.

Steamflyer said:
As for costs, in a day and age where a mass produced pick-up can run up to 100k, the idea than a handbuilt aircraft will cost 200k is not realistic.
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Well, that's not exactly true, depending on what you expect to buy. A brand new Vashon Ranger lists for $159k, and it's about as capable (with far more features) as the 152s and Cherokee 140s that were selling back in the 1970s.

Ranger R7 Pricing | Vashon Aircraft

A variety of configuration options are available for immediate delivery from our fleet of Ranger R7s.
vashonaircraft.com vashonaircraft.com
 
Half Fast said:
Yes, but I think there's a third reason for the decline in GA sales, and that's the dramatic drop in the cost of commercial airline travel.
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Which is why GA prices spiked during COVID. People suddenly realized they did not want to sit in a sealed metal tube with 100 of their closest friends. That's exactly why I got off the sidelines and bought.
 
DeadStick said:
To answer the original question, MOSAIC can directly increase GA sales by bridging the gap between current LSA planes and part 23 planes. This can be done primarily by MOSAIC's increase to gross weight limit and relaxing certification to ATSM standards, both of which will allow for planes that are more useful than current LSA rules allow but less costly and more simple to own, operate and maintain than part 23 planes.

But no rule change can get GA back to 10k new planes sold annually, and I hope this data will make it clear why:
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I think that you have it wrong.

What sold a lot of airplanes in the 60s, 70s and 80s was the ability to travel quickly within a reasonable range at a competitive cost. The cost of flying your own GA airplane was often less than buying a commercial ticket (before de-regulation), so the economics for anyone owning a small business were very favorable for Cessna, Piper, etc.

Then came de-regulation, Southwest, JetBlue, ValuJet, etc.

In the early 90s, a coach-fare flight from Charlotte to Shreveport cost me around $300-350. Inflation-adjusted, that would be about $750 today. Tickets today are still selling for $350 or even less - less than half of what they cost back then in real dollars. This drop in the real price of commercial flights makes it a much harder sell for someone to buy their own plane for regional travel than it was 30-40 years ago, because it doesn't leave enough room for cost savings in business travel.

Meanwhile, the new technology that comes in planes today isn't free. Everything from airbags to CAPS to ADSB to strobes, etc. is cost that wasn't present in a 1975 Bonanza. If we go all the way back to the Bonanza's launch in 1947, it was priced at $7,345, which is equivalent to just over $100K in today's dollars. In the early 70s, the Beech ad campaigns were all about saving money by flying yourself instead of using the airlines...does that compute today?

Think about it: If you could buy a new Bonanza today for $100K, how many people would become interested?
 
Half Fast said:
Yes, but I think there's a third reason for the decline in GA sales, and that's the dramatic drop in the cost of commercial airline travel. That changed the balance sheet analysis for business travel, and for some personal travel, too.
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An as large or larger factor was the creation of interstate highways. When the only alternative was 2 lane local roads, air travel even at Piper Cub speeds was an attractive option.
 
Dana said:
An as large or larger factor was the creation of interstate highways. When the only alternative was 2 lane local roads, air travel even at Piper Cub speeds was an attractive option.
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And today, traffic congestion on those interstates is one thing motivating me to have a plane!
 
Wow! It has been a long time since I’ve visited the board (years?). I think my story is like many others.

I bought “my” Cherokee in 2006 and put 1,000 hours on it over 13 years. I am active duty military and kept it during deployments, but I sold it for $30K when we moved overseas for two years. I didn’t want it to rot on the ramp. Fiver years later, it looks like the same airplane would sell for $55-$60K. My maintenance costs drastically increased during my ownership. Hangar costs went up, and I couldn’t find a hangar during our last two moves with the airplane. Flying was my favorite part, but I also enjoyed bumming around the hangar, changing the oil, and tinkering on rainy days. That’s tough to do when you don’t have a hangar. Not having a hangar essentially changed aviation from a lifestyle to an activity for me.

I now have two growing daughters that will likely need tuition money to attend college, and I need to buy a house when I retire (a house that costs twice as much as it did four years ago). I would love to fly again, but I can’t look at my family and make a responsible decision to dive back in. I was happy to drive old cars and do a lot of my own work to keep things affordable, but I’m not going to trade my daughters’ quality of life for it.

I’m trying (and so far failing) to take up golf. It’s fun, there is a good group of people that play, and I might spend $100 to $200 a month. Ironically, the course lies right off the end of a local runway. Every time a GA airplane flies over, I watch without bitterness, hope that pilot appreciates the moment, remember some fond memories, and hope that some day I might return to the sky.
 
Half Fast said:
Good for one date. Once she sees the guy’s 1967 172 with bad paint and worn upholstery, instead of the Gulfstream she expected, the love fades.....
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It seems that these guys are not pilots nor own a plane
 
Pinecone said:
I have recently heard of something that could drive numbers up.

It seems in the senior dating world, the current hot line for guys is that they are a pilot and own a plane. :D
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It has worked for me. Every lady I have dated has loved flying in my “Classic” 1946 Ercoupe which is only slightly younger than me ;). Contrary to Half Fast’s comment about a Gulfstream, “vintage” aged people are mostly happy to be flying or as a passenger in ANY aircraft rather than playing Bingo in an old folks home:happydance:
 
DeadStick said:
THAT is why we can't afford new planes anymore. The Big Bosses at the top are taking home so much of the pie, we can barely feed ourselves on the crumbs left to us. Forget lawsuits, forget regulations, forget all the lies you've been told to distract you from the truth. GA is a luxury hobby, and until we all take the blinders off and stop cheerleading this messed up form of Death By Capitalism, there won't be a middle class left to afford luxury hobbies.
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EAT THE RICH!
 
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