Westchester NY: plane missing, possibly down.

Night IMC, low time, low time in type, on half a dozen medications. Sigh.
Sigh.

"The airplane underwent modifications in accordance with (IAW) Supplemental Type Certificates (STC) covering installation ... of new cooling air baffles...
...

The engine manufacturer Standard Practice Maintenance Manual specified that the fuel flow at full power be between 24.9 to 26.6 gallons-per-hour (GPH).
...

An Insight GEM which was installed in the instrument panel ... where it was easily visible by the pilot.
...

Further review of the GEM data associated with the accident flight, correlated with ADS-B data, revealed that the recorded fuel flow values from about takeoff power application to when it decreased and remained at 0 were nearly always above the maximum limit of 26.6 GPH, averaging about 44 GPH with the highest value slightly over 99 GPH. The EGT values, which were not an engine operating limitation, appeared “noisy” and erratic for the No. 4 cylinder and had not trended with the remaining cylinders since December 13, 2022. The oil temperature values from takeoff power application to where the fuel flow decreased to and remained at 0 were above normal, averaging about 693°F.

Data from the GEM for the flight before the accident flight revealed that the CHT values for the No. 4 cylinder were generally equal to or slightly higher than the highest values for the remaining cylinders; however, all CHT readings were below the maximum specified value. The data also indicated that the fuel flow was generally steady and within limits except for a short period about 5 minutes after takeoff power was applied, periodically during the flight, and then again for about 19 minutes before power was reduced. During the times when the fuel flow was erratic and exceeded the maximum specified value, the CHT values for all cylinders were below the maximum value and all trended generally the same. The oil temperature values from takeoff power application to the end of recorded data were above normal, averaging about 1,714°F (these recorded values were likely erroneous)."
 
During the times when the fuel flow was erratic and exceeded the maximum specified value, the CHT values for all cylinders were below the maximum value and all trended generally the same. The oil temperature values from takeoff power application to the end of recorded data were above normal, averaging about 1,714°F (these recorded values were likely erroneous)."

Yes, a recorded oil temperature at 1714 f would certainly be considered erroneous if occurring long enough to determine an average.

Possibly a fuel control or distribution issue progressively (and intermittently) dumped a lot more fuel into the motor that caused it to run super rich, ultimately reducing available power.

Wondering if any attempt was made to notice excessive fuel flow displayed on the GEM, then lean out the mixture accordingly? And if yes, I'd then expect the GEM to indicate an increase in CHT's across the board, and a noticeable increase in power output.
 
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While it’s true he was not formally doing an ILS, one would think he had the localizer tuned. Yet the controller was basically trying to make the corrections for him.

Obviously I don’t have all the info, and I’m not trying to belittle the task he was facing.
That said… why on God’s green Earth was he sending a text message?
Resigned??

Perhaps he didn’t see a positive outcome or at least a high chance of negative outcome. Wanted to say goodbye.

Unfortunately no way to know now.
 
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