Weather Question

Kimberly,

Advice from a fellow new-PPL (taking IR ground school now):

1 - Plan as if you will fly. Put in the time. If nothing else, it is good practice.
2 - Devour the ADDS and DUATs info. Check ForeFlight. Call the briefer (a couple of times). Once again, practice helps.
3 - Make your firm go/no-go decision at the time you would have to leave for the slowest transportation means (driving, I presume). If the forecast is still unsetlled, DRIVE.
4 - Don't sweat Class Charlie. Get flight following and it's a non-issue altogether. Bravo is unique and I have rarely invaded it myself (just dodged KPIT bravo last night).
5 - Have a positive attitude. Flying is fun!
 
Ron Levy said:
Hard to make a go/no-go decision that far in advance (Thursday night for a Monday flight).
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I can make the Monday flight (vs Sunday flight) decision on Sunday. Thursday night / Friday is basically the time to decide if I fly or drive. The BF doesn't want me to fly home alone, but tough titties for him cuz I will if I have to, even if that means leaving on SATURDAY which would be a huge bummer though.
 
kimberlyanne546 said:
Two questions:

1. (...)

2. The "go" vs "no go" question. Should I fly or drive. I would like to decide Thursday night but am willing to wait until Friday. After that, if we fly, the question becomes when do I fly back. I want to stay through Monday, and the passenger (boyfriend) doesn't want me to fly home solo - perhaps he thinks he's "helping" me fly the plane . . . but of course he would like to stay until Monday. I WILL MOST DEFINITELY go home with the plane when I need to. It would suck if that is Sunday, and Saturday seems out of the question since I should have a good idea by Friday.
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My go/no-go rule of thumb: if you have to ask on PoA, drive. Schedule some time with a weather savvy CFI. Do NOT offload the go/no-go decision making responsibility on anyone else -- not in part, not in whole. That's your call alone as PIC. No one here really understands your abilities and limitations, they can only tell you what they would do as PIC.

I agree with the poster above me, though, in that you should postpone your decision till shortly before you actually have to go. But once that time comes, if you still aren't sure, grab the car keys.
 
Everskyward said:
Here is the area forecast discussion for the SF Bay Area and Monterey. As you can see, the forecasters are not sure what is going to happen with the frontal systems over the weekend and early next week.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDMTR&wfo=MTR

It's hard to make a blanket statement about weather in this area since there are so many microclimates. To me, "onshore flow" would indicate the presence of clouds and fog along the coast. The inland route would not have as great a chance of that problem. Like everyone else has said, the forecast will become more reliable as the time frame shortens but it's never completely reliable.
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Thanks, Mari. I will probably have to look at this weather product again Friday morning to make my final decision. But in addition, I need to print out / program in to foreflight my way points, flight plan, fuel plan, etc.
 
kimberlyanne546 said:
If this ends up being a No Go, I will officially have cancelled 100% of all "important" flights due to weather.

1. POA member from East Coast met me in California, we got to airport, and got fogged in

2. My uncle who only comes to North CA once per year for any length of time, same thing, we drove to the airport but clouds were bad

3. My father, never drives this far North, former pilot, canceled at airport due to clouds (though we did fly a legal pattern for fun).

4. I think there is a fourth flight I had to cancel, but I forget what it was.

5. (Possible) this weekend's flight, planned / reserved back in February.
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Thats why VFR only pretty much is useless other than for flying recreational in the local area or on places where there's no clouds for months at a time. you should start thinking of an ifr rating. it increases the utility and fun of flying exponentially.


cheers and good luck with your cross country if GO.
 
matthammer said:
My go/no-go rule of thumb: if you have to ask on PoA, drive. Schedule some time with a weather savvy CFI. Do NOT offload the go/no-go decision making responsibility on anyone else -- not in part, not in whole. That's your call alone as PIC. No one here really understands your abilities and limitations, they can only tell you what they would do as PIC.

I agree with the poster above me, though, in that you should postpone your decision till shortly before you actually have to go. But once that time comes, if you still aren't sure, grab the car keys.
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The problem here is the "system" coming in. If it was just a day of bad weather, that would be one thing, but this looks like once it gets here it will be 3+ days of clouds etc. So the question is, when is it going to get here.
 
cirrusmx said:
Thats why VFR only pretty much is useless other than for flying recreational in the local area or on places where there's no clouds for months at a time. you should start thinking of an ifr rating. it increases the utility and fun of flying exponentially.


cheers and good luck with your cross country if GO.
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Thanks but I'm still paying off my PPL (had to use a credit card). I'm not going to go and do that again so the IFR is out of the question for many years to come.
 
cirrusmx said:
That's why VFR only pretty much is useless other than for flying recreational in the local area or on places where there's no clouds for months at a time. you should start thinking of an ifr rating. it increases the utility and fun of flying exponentially.


cheers and good luck with your cross country if GO.
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I flew all over the country VFR last year, 100 hrs worth penetrating weather fronts that had airliners on the ground with perfect dispatch reliability.
 
#1 rule in life is to postpone everything as much as possible. Winning!

with weather planning this actually works. just be patient and wait. You can't really tell what the weather will be on monday - unless they are forecasting a major weather event on monday I wouldn't give much weight to the forecast..

on friday morning or whenever the last minute is get the forecast. if its not bad but there is some weather - go fer it. Treat it as several small cross countries. Tune the AWOS of airports in front of you and find out the conditions.

Studying weather theory, patterns and meteorology is excellent but you do have to get experience flying in weather too. You can read and look at pictures all you want but experiencing something new in the cockpit alone as PIC is the only thing that will take away anxiety for when you encounter it again...
 
dell30rb said:
#1 rule in life is to postpone everything as much as possible. Winning!

with weather planning this actually works. just be patient and wait. You can't really tell what the weather will be on monday - unless they are forecasting a major weather event on monday I wouldn't give much weight to the forecast..

on friday morning or whenever the last minute is get the forecast. if its not bad but there is some weather - go fer it. Treat it as several small cross countries. Tune the AWOS of airports in front of you and find out the conditions.

Studying weather theory, patterns and meteorology is excellent but you do have to get experience flying in weather too. You can read and look at pictures all you want but experiencing something new in the cockpit alone as PIC is the only thing that will take away anxiety for when you encounter it again...
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This is what I meant by my recent experience in Half Moon Bay. Left with the fear of the MVFR waiting for me back home, planned to duck under it if needed and still be legal TPA - but got there and the entire flight was "clear" and "no problem" - never did see that O/C and all other airports were reporting VFR too.
 
..And if you're somewhere and the weather won't let you home..just crack a beer and you won't have to worry about it for another 8 hours.
 
I used to take a lot of trips from Palo Alto to the Seattle and Portland areas, in all times of year. I survived it by being flexible about departure and return dates. Being flexible about the route helped a lot too.
 
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Way back at post #79 I told you to not obsess about Class C. Just remembered that you always use flight following....in that case, it is the responsibility of the controller to coordinate your flight through the Class C without your taking any action whatsoever.

Bob Gardner
 
jesse said:
..And if you're somewhere and the weather won't let you home..just crack a beer and you won't have to worry about it for another 8 hours.
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Crap that reminds me, if I fly I can't drink, since I don't know when I'm gonna have to leave and I don't want beer to stop me from being safe.

Another vote for letting the BF or his parents drive us.
 
Another option is to land somewhere on route and spend the night and wait for weather to improve (if destination can't be reached). I had done it before. I even had a list of backup airports where there were motels that offered to pick you up at the airport. But this works only if there is nothing really bad in the general outlook (in other words weather rather mproving than getting worse). This is also a good safety device that you are not absolutely bent on reaching the destination no matter what.
 
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kimberlyanne546 said:
Not sure if "solar flares" make a "no go" but:
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Read carefully the title - strongest solar flare in 5 years, we had them before, people were using GPS at that time, I don't recall airplanes falling out of sky last time it happened. Typical journalistic hyperbole and a method to generate 'stories'. I don't think you weather briefer will tell you "lady.. solar flares, SIGMET, run for cover!!".
 
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One thing going for you Kimberly is that the flight isn't that far, as I recall. You won't have to have a very big window of decent weather to make it safely.
 
scottd said:
Ben,

Well...you hit the crux of the problem...getting pilots to pay for training. I would be more than willing to do a FREE Q&A session (webinar format) on weather for a small group (15 or less). It's a Q&A, so I really don't have to prepare anything formal in advance. I could start with a short 15 minute basic lesson and use the remaining 45 minutes to address questions in an ad hoc fashion on any aviation weather topic. If there's enough interest, I'll set up a time in the near future to hold such a webinar.

If anyone is interested, please send me a PM with your e-mail address and I'll attempt to organize the webinar. No promises that it'll happen at all or be held at a convenient date & time for everyone.
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That would be great! Put me down if you organize something.
 
somorris said:
One thing going for you Kimberly is that the flight isn't that far, as I recall. You won't have to have a very big window of decent weather to make it safely.
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BINGO! We have a winner. Rarely are you going to run into sudden incapacitating weather that holds you up for more than a few hours. I have had some great experiences in local hospitality when sitting out a frontal passage with my plane in a hangar. After the storm passes, I'm gone. Rarely did I ever get to work late commuting in CA VFR, but I parked my plane at work on one end.
 
If I were you Kim I'd drive my own car. (Don't be at the mercy of your bf parents) Yeah the traveling part won't be quite as much fun but not being to have a beverage at the same time because you're watching the weather would be less fun. Fly GA when you have time to spare. Be bad if the weather just breaks and you just finished a delicious beverage.
 
Sometimes the diversions make the trip. Coming back from my Mother-in-law's (having just spent Easter weekend there) me, wife & kids were skirting around some isolated snow showers when we ran up against a solid wall. Reallyreally wanted to get home since we had work & kids had school the next morning. Looked out the window and there's the airport where I grew up. *My* mother lives 7 miles from there. Easist diversion decision ever made.

Landed. 20 minutes later a blizzard hits. 20 minutes after that, clear sunshine. We probably could have continued the rest of the way home, but we were tired & decided to hang out with Mom for the evening. Got up early, finished the 45 minute flight home and continued our lives.

I've never flown in that area, but could you punch through SFO's airspace right over the airport? Around here, KSTL will vector GA aircraft right over Lambert at 4,000. Safest place to be. That would be very direct for you.
 
crash7 said:
I've never flown in that area, but could you punch through SFO's airspace right over the airport? Around here, KSTL will vector GA aircraft right over Lambert at 4,000. Safest place to be. That would be very direct for you.
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That is what I thought too... Unless they were launching rockets that go straight up, directly over any airport seems to be the safest place to transit.. That is assuming your course does not take you into an arrival or departure path. My guess is the ATC culture at Bravo airports that refuse that option have a long standing reaction of... "Stay out you little guys"

Maybe Steven Mc Nicol can chime in here to correct me...
 
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I may have missed it. How long is the trip?
 
N801BH said:
That is what I thought too... Unless they were launching rockets that go straight up, directly over any airport seems to be the safest place to transit.. That is assuming your course does not take you into an arrival or departure path. My guess is the ATC culture at Bravo airports the refuse that option have a long standing reaction of... "Stay out you little guys"
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The only place I hear about that (haven't personally experienced it though) is O'Hare. Typically they all give me one of the routes on the back of the TCA chart or a vector over the departure numbers.
 
N801BH said:
Geez............ So far just the two of us want to further our knowledge of weather..:dunno::dunno::dunno: Hard to believe ...:yesnod::yesnod::confused::(
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I'd be up for learning more. Every time I try to "teach" weather to one of my students I always feel woefully inadequate.
 
N801BH said:
Geez............ So far just the two of us want to further our knowledge of weather..:dunno::dunno::dunno: Hard to believe ...:yesnod::yesnod::confused::(
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Really? It costs money doesn't it? Internet pilots are one of the cheapest things on the planet. Why should they pay more money? Isn't this why they spent the money on the GPS with XM weather? I find it extraordinarily believable.
 
So after reading all the stories, I have a new idea.

Because the weather on Sunday and Monday, most likely, won't have any rain at all - and simply periods of cloud cover (but hopefully not fog), I proposed a new idea to the boyfriend:

If we fly (and as mentioned, I'm not going to decide until I wake up on Friday morning and we either have to get into my car or into my plane), I will make SURE that my boyfriend is OK with coming back on Sunday. This gives me two days to get home, I can find an airport with a hotel that is willing to pick us up (or an FBO that will drop us off at a hotel).

I told him this morning, I'll do it with or without him, but the willingness to leave on Sunday will make me worry less because I won't be in a hurry to get home and it will be an "adventure" if we stay in some strange town along the way.

Problem solved!
 
kimberlyanne546 said:
So after reading all the stories, I have a new idea.

Because the weather on Sunday and Monday, most likely, won't have any rain at all - and simply periods of cloud cover (but hopefully not fog), I proposed a new idea to the boyfriend:

If we fly (and as mentioned, I'm not going to decide until I wake up on Friday morning and we either have to get into my car or into my plane), I will make SURE that my boyfriend is OK with coming back on Sunday. This gives me two days to get home, I can find an airport with a hotel that is willing to pick us up (or an FBO that will drop us off at a hotel).

I told him this morning, I'll do it with or without him, but the willingness to leave on Sunday will make me worry less because I won't be in a hurry to get home and it will be an "adventure" if we stay in some strange town along the way.

Problem solved!
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There you go, all it takes is a bit of flexibility.
 
Henning said:
There you go, all it takes is a bit of flexibility.
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Yup. And the relatively short amount of time it takes to fly this trip helps. I've postponed many scheduled friday night departures to saturday morning and not had too much grumbling from my passengers. If it only takes 2 hours to get to where you are going, you can leave at 9am and still have a full day.

Unless there is some kind of unusual weather event, having two days flexibility really opens things up.
 
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Yes and besides, all the different weather websites disagree, one doesn't even mention a chance of rain on Sunday and Monday. And when you use "Petaluma" or "Monterey" (Half Way Point) or "San Luis Obispo" - somewhat different predictions come up.

Right now, the forty eight hour forecast shows low clouds on Saturday for SLO which makes me think that Sunday will be similar and it seems mornings are better departure times due to the fact that we will have all day to get home. Coastal airports (and my home airport), if they are going to be VFR and not MVFR, tend to do so during the day. I've flown out of Petaluma long enough to know that I want to get back before dark if possible.

What I need to do, then, is research airports in my free time at this vacation place so my flight back on Sunday has options.

Friday, by all accounts, is still looking very nice, high pressure, warm temps, clear skies. So the "good news" here is that we should have a wonderful flight down.

I'm tempted to take the coast line for the beauty, but I know I should fly inland so that coming home I will be more familiar with all the airport waypoints I plan to use as navigation aids.
 
dell30rb said:
Yup. And the relatively short amount of time it takes to fly this trip helps. I've postponed many scheduled friday night departures to saturday morning and not had too much grumbling from my passengers. If it only takes 2 hours to get to where you are going, you can leave at 9am and still have a full day
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Correct. And if he argues about it, I'll go solo. I've already told him this. Though I think he doesn't believe me. I want to come home on Sunday now, even if Monday looks "perfect", just so I'm not stuck there. And besides, Monday has not been looking perfect.
 
Anthony said:
I meant in nautical miles, i.e. distance?
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Straight line, 204 nm. Add more NM for all the waypoints and getting around areas.

Add time to these times since I'm going further than the straight line distance:

At 60 kts that will take 3:39 (even longer though because I've decided if I'm not there in less than 3 hours, time is fuel, and I'm landing to get gas)

At 70 kts that will take 3:10 (again, even longer, I'd stop for gas)

80 kts it will take 2:48, in which case, I'd probably go straight there. I need to look at the POH and decide.

I chose these airspeeds because:

Boyfriend monitored foreflight on last XC (short trip) and we only got btwn 70 - 80 kts

I will be spending time climbing, which slows us down

I may climb and descend if ATC clears me through various air spaces

I want to be "realistic" in telling my passenger how long it will take.
 
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