Weather Analysis Checklist

esorcc

esorcc

Filing Flight Plan
Joined
Jun 8, 2013
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Atlanta
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Display name:
C. Rose
Relatively new instrument pilot here, < 2yrs;
I'm looking at a flight into KCHO this weekend 13-May-2017. The weather will be a bit ugly with cold front moving south east and warm front moving north. They join over the Virginia-North Carolina border and a slightly negative tilted trough axis extends down out of Canada pretty much over KCHO. I'll be coming from the ATL area.
This is taking quite a bit of weather analysis and it got me thinking that I should really have a checklist type approach for weather analysis with what to check and when to check and when to recheck. I was wondering if pilots here have a such a list or approach and would share.

Thanks.
 
Just do what you normally do. No need for a checklist. Always have an out and be flexible with your travels.
 
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I don't see your warm front moving north on the current Day 3 Prog Chart.

Looks like it is all going to depend on how fast that cold front moves east to me. You'd be catching up to it from behind, so you'd be able to see if you're gaining on it or if it's gone to the coast/out to sea ahead of you.

There's days out is usually still too long to know if the fronts will really be exactly where the guesses think they'll be. But in *general* going off the current prog chart, you'll be flying in the right lane not to be in the weather. Behind the cold front moving east (it'll generally clear out weather as it passes) and a long way from the front up near the Canadian border.

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Curious. What chart showed the north moving warm front?
 
Thanks for the quick feedback. I was interpreting the warm front that extending eastward out of the low center right on the coast of VA/NC border as a north moving warm front but honestly I'm not well educated in interpreting the prog charts frontal analysis.
 
esorcc said:
Thanks for the quick feedback. I was interpreting the warm front that extending eastward out of the low center right on the coast of VA/NC border as a north moving warm front but honestly I'm not well educated in interpreting the prog charts frontal analysis.
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Then your issue isn't checklists, it interpretation.

There are many ways to develop weather literacy (I won't say "expertise). There are programs and seminars galore. Some of them are excellent. Others are overkill.

But a good basic beginning can be as simple as watching your local news station and relating the weather guy or gal's description if what the weather chart is showing with what the aviation weather chart is showing. Then start using what you have to predict flights you aren't taking, make a virtual go/no go decision and see how it turns out.

Yeah, that's really basic but it can make a great starting point for some.
 
Wow, I have a lot to learn about weather analysis. I'd never heard the term extratropical cyclone but I'd certainly noticed that all fronts tend to end up in this state. Wikipedia is educating me now that I know the term.
 
GeorgeC said:
I thought all extratropical cyclones did that...
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I suppose. I'll readily admit not spending much time analyzing those where I live. :)

Happy to learn something through following his analysis of his flight as a couple more days progress here.

Temp/Dewpoint spread and Skew-T data closer to the flight plus wind data, would be more accurate than the prog chart... and of course, still too far out for the SIGWX forecast or ceiling/vis forecast.

Still think he's going to be relatively good for an IFR flight behind that cold front as long as it keeps moving east and isn't in his path.
 
I agree, my interpretation needs work and probably always will. I've taken Scott Dennstaedt's course last year. But it was a bit too much for me at the time as I was really new to trying to analyze weather. Any recommended courses or reading would be appreciated.
I do think that interpretation and a process/checklist are two different things however. So a checklist is still useful while the analysis/interpretation skills are developing.
 
I keep telling people that aviation is a gateway drug to meteorology. Is it weird to say that I'm excited to start my instrument training because I'll be able to fly in more interesting weather? :)
 
Nate - thanks for the input. I agree that behind the front things will be better. I'm hoping it moves out before I arrive near the center of it at CHO on Saturday morning. I may delay a few hours if I think things will improve rapidly.
 
Did you end up making the flight?
 
If you need to ask a checklist you shouldn't go.

It's like with student pilots, I never put any limitations on any of them, just had them brief me before solo flight, I never had to tell one NOT to fly, the few who were thinking of pushing it, actually would talk themselves out of it as they were briefing me.

Again you know the right answer, your first thought is 95% of the time the right answer.
 
Yes I went. Weather turned better overnight so I had 1000 ft ceilings at destination instead of the 200-400 which had been forecast the night before. Flight was uneventful. Departure was 400' ceilings so my bigger risk was there. Departure has an ILS and I have two close by departure alternates both with ILS so the 400 ceiling was not too much concern

I do take a bit of exception with James331. I think it's important to understand the difference between a checklist and a do-list. I was only asking for a weather analysis checklist to make sure I've reviewed all aspects that should be considered, i.e. What to look for 3 days out, 2 days out, 1 day out and right before departure. I don't need a weather checklist to make a go-no-go decision, that's a different criteria.
 
Cool. Glad it lifted a bit for ya. It's always so difficult to tell anything eve close to reality, even just a say in advance, unless the weather system driving the forecast is just utterly massive.
 
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