VFR and scattered T-storms

eman1200 said:
like this?

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now granted, it wasn't a 300nm trip, but I came real close to talking myself out of this trip. ended up being a great flight and great experience. I simply asked atc for any advisories that might help me weasel my way thru, and they did!
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Glad it worked out. If you were signed up at 1800wxbrief.com you could have received Adverse Condition Warning Service.

Bob
 
Is there a rule for when they add VCTS to a TAF? A certain minimum chance of thunderstorms?
 
bobmrg said:
Glad it worked out. If you were signed up at 1800wxbrief.com you could have received Adverse Condition Warning Service.

Bob
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I do use wxbrief.com but I haven't really used their alerting options.
 
bobmrg said:
If you were signed up at 1800wxbrief.com you could have received Adverse Condition Warning Service.
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How does that work?

This thread is timely for me as I'm getting ready to bring my new biplane home next week, 1000 miles strictly VFR, long range forecast has scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms.
 
Dana said:
This thread is timely for me as I'm getting ready to bring my new biplane home next week, 1000 miles strictly VFR, long range forecast has scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms.
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Be prepared to sit and wait stuff out. Do you have ADS-B or XM?

I've done enough long biplane cross-countries to know you have to be very flexible. Going back to my comments two years ago in this very thread….I never did make it to Ohio on that trip. I spent 4 days flying around VA/WV/NC trying to get around/find an opening before I ended up back at home.

A biplane speeds, you really have to be very careful about threading the needle so to speak. You have to think a lot father ahead so that you have an out if the weather gets funky. Also, have planned diversion airports with hangar space and call ahead to confirm.

I've done a few biplane ferries. Feel free to PM for any specific questions.
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
Is there a rule for when they add VCTS to a TAF? A certain minimum chance of thunderstorms?
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In the United States, vicinity (VC) is defined as a donut-shaped area between 5 and 10 sm from the center of the airport’s runway complex. The FAA requires TAFs to include certain meteorological phenomena, which may directly affect flight operations to and from the airport. Therefore, NWS TAFs may include a prevailing condition forecast of fog, showers, and thunderstorms in the airport’s vicinity. A prevailing condition is defined as a greater than or equal to 50 percent probability of occurrence for more than half of the subdivided forecast time period. VC is not included in TEMPO or PROB groups.
—Aviation Weather Services
 
Fearless Tower said:
Be prepared to sit and wait stuff out. Do you have ADS-B or XM?

I've done enough long biplane cross-countries to know you have to be very flexible. Going back to my comments two years ago in this very thread….I never did make it to Ohio on that trip. I spent 4 days flying around VA/WV/NC trying to get around/find an opening before I ended up back at home.

A biplane speeds, you really have to be very careful about threading the needle so to speak. You have to think a lot father ahead so that you have an out if the weather gets funky. Also, have planned diversion airports with hangar space and call ahead to confirm.

I've done a few biplane ferries. Feel free to PM for any specific questions.
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No ADS-B or xm. I'm allowing up to a week for 10 hours of flying time.
 
Dana said:
How does that work?

This thread is timely for me as I'm getting ready to bring my new biplane home next week, 1000 miles strictly VFR, long range forecast has scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms.
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From where to where?
 
Dana said:
Memphis, TN to Connecticut.
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If the weather is good, fly to BKW from Memphis and then go down the New River Valley to PSK before heading on toward CT.

You won't regret it......beautiful scenic route.

You don't need ADS-B, but it does help to monitor conditions ahead while you are flying. At biplane speeds and range, you aren't going to try to split storm cells.

If you can borrow someone's Stratus, I'd recommend it.
 
Fearless Tower said:
If the weather is good, fly to BKW from Memphis and then go down the New River Valley to PSK before heading on toward CT.

You won't regret it......beautiful scenic route.

You don't need ADS-B, but it does help to monitor conditions ahead while you are flying. At biplane speeds and range, you aren't going to try to split storm cells.

If you can borrow someone's Stratus, I'd recommend it.
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That does look like a nice route, but I'll likely go farther north. And in an unfamiliar plane, I prefer to stay over more landable terrain.
 
Dana said:
How does that work?

This thread is timely for me as I'm getting ready to bring my new biplane home next week, 1000 miles strictly VFR, long range forecast has scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms.
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Piece of cake. Go to www.1800wxbrief.com and register. Next time you log on the first screen will be the Dashboard, where you can select the enroute service(s) you want to use. Only thing I do not like is the requirement to change my password every year, which I should really do without prompting.

Bob
 
Dana said:
How does that work?

This thread is timely for me as I'm getting ready to bring my new biplane home next week, 1000 miles strictly VFR, long range forecast has scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms.
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What make/model biplane?
 
cowman said:
Been seeing lots of mostly VFR days in an area I'm trying to fly into where there are isolate/scattered storms around. Could have made the flight probably 2 or 3 times already if I was a little more willing to head out and be ready to land early or go around the cells if need be.

How do you develop personal minimums go/no go decisions for this? Say you're making a ~300mi flight that's expected to take just over 2.5hrs. Skies are clear all the way to the destination now but there are a bunch of scattered cells on the radar about 40-60mi away from your destination point and moving in that general direction. Would you go and just have a safe alternate airport in mind if you can't make it to the intended point?

I was in a situation like that a couple weeks ago and ultimately canceled... the larger deciding factor was a bunch of pireps along the route showing turbulence and I didn't really need to go that day anyway. I have a stratus so I'd have radar info plus with the clear skies I thought I'd be able to see anything and turn away before it became a problem but I've never flown in those conditions before. Seemed like a safe enough plan, like I said the thought of being bounced around roughly for nearly 3 hours was probably the bigger decision factor.

But what about weather that isn't so clear? What if I've got say scattered 10,000 most of the way in then in the last >100mi or so it's scattered or broken 3000... or even 2000. Would I be able to see the storm and avoid it? Am I walking right into something that will the next accident case study? Or am I being overly cautious?

Not having any first hand experience with this, but not wanting to be grounded when scattered t-storms are in the forecast almost every day for weeks as they have been.... how do I make these decisions with a healthy safety margin?
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Depends on your comfort level. Scattered T-storms usually aren't a big deal and you can see and avoid while remaining VFR pretty easily. You have a few options...one is to bring a more experienced pilot with you, preferably at least IFR rated. in case somehow you got caught up in IMC conditions. Another option is to fill the plane up with max fuel (W&B permitting) so you have a big enough reserve in case you have to divert to another airport should storms move into the terminal area of your destination and stall out over the field...it happens. Or the third option is to either get a weather brief enroute through FSS which you should do anyway and then make a judgement to continue or divert.....or just plan a short fuel stop midway at an airport with weather radar and make a decision over a coke and a stretch.

T-Storms can be unpredictable and regardless of what a forecast says the weather will be remember it is only their best guess....and sometimes I am not sure its even their best haha
 
Dana said:
This thread is timely for me as I'm getting ready to bring my new biplane home next week, 1000 miles strictly VFR, long range forecast has scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms.
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I fly a lot of long cross countries at Maule speed. Either from the center of Mexico to the south (700NM or so) or from the center to the Chicago area (1500NM). The advice I can give you is summed up in two points.

1) Plan extra days. Due to weather, I once took five days to go from MMCY to KARR. Three days of that was slowly trying to pick my way through Texas/Oklahoma. Lots of time in pilot lounges, getting woken up by police make sure I wasn't a trespasser and, fortunately, some damn good BBQ.

2) Make progress where you can. Pushing the envelope has the potential to get you in trouble (like "crashed in a field" trouble). But waiting until there is a huge opening can leave you watching TV in a lounge when you could have been making progress. If you have a window to safely log 100NM, take it. Making three short flights in a day and getting 300-400 miles closer to your destination is a lot better than waiting for an opening big enough to do it all in one flight, there are plenty of days where that might never happen.
 
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