That's what I mean; I figured the backlog and parts would make it more than a year. Seems crazy that it takes less time to get a wing spar replaced than an engine overhauled.
The cost of new aircraft is what is preventing selling new airplanes.
Not in the Cherokee/172 class. New ones of both are available, but to a first order only flight schools buy them. So if today a good used Cherokee costs 75-150k, their banishment will not lead to a host of 500k Warriors being sold. Some, yes, but not enough to sustain the GA ecosystem at all IMHO.
Exceptions to every rule, and they have good resale value. But there aren't many that can afford that amount of capital.I know an individual that bought a new 172 not that long ago. I'll let him know.
I guess it depends on how you define "many". If you look over the past 10 years those "many" private aircraft buyers have shelled out a pretty good sized chuck of change on new single, piston aircraft. There will always be a fair number of people who buy new regardless of the perceived market.
Textron sells about a dozen Barons a year now, how many did they sell in the 1970's?
Zero comparison to todays market. The Part 91 recreation market imploded on itself between 1980 and 1985 for various reasons but more specifically due to civil liability costs went through the roof. It wasn’t until congress passed GARA in the 90s that Cessna (Textron) even started producing those 1722, 182s, and 206s. So you need to start around 2000 to compare your Baron numbers, but the big winner since then has been Cirrus but they had help from NASA’s AGATE program to bring it to market.
How big do you think the current Part 91 recreational aircraft market is today?
Between 1100 and 1900 per year. Alternatively stated, since 2002, there have been about the same number of piston GA aircraft sold as there were just in one year in the late 1970s. Here are the data for the big three, including exotics like Malibi and Columbias. Data from GAMA.
By market, I meant how many current Part 91 recreational aircraft owners are there. New units per year tends to not to mean much unless you compare it to all the potential buyers.
About 200k registered aircraft in US. A very gestalt number is about 1/2 actually fly. 600k pilots including PVT, COM, and ATP.
The key word is recreational. So if you follow the general numbers most industry people use, there are approx. 205,000 general aviation aircraft in the US... or about 212,000 if you include Part 121 aircraft. Of those GA aircraft numbers about 65% are used for commercial purposes so we're down to 72,000 aircraft. Subtract about 28,000 for E/AB and 7,000 for LSA and you get to about 37,000 aircraft. Now reduce that number by another 7,000 or so for private helicopters, gliders, etc. and you're at about 30,000 TC'd aircraft used for private or recreational purposes. In the big picture, the recreational aircraft market is not that big and is the reason few OEMs spend the money to expand in it.
I haven’t even contacted the insurance company, I never gave it a thought. I will call them and ask, at least change the insurance to none movement until this get sorted.
I didn’t get any pictures, I wish I had but my started think of calling junk yards and anyone who might have one.
Exactly, they are just busy and have to deal with all the work they have on top of this now they are neck deep is backlog work. Another local here has offer to help by doing the spar replacement and I going to schedule it for January if possible. So I have options is just expensive options.
they did the eddy current inspection twice
Ok, thanks. Believe I got the Service Bulletin number wrong. Think it should be SB 1372.
No problem
As an FYI, with the wing removed, it would not be a bad idea to double check the eddy current result with a fluorescent penetrant check. Given the amount of work to repair, I would want to be doubly sure it is a true crack.
SB 1372 and SB 1412 are the separate bulletins to check the spar holes based on whether the aircraft falls under a calculated service hour requirement or not. Same difference on the separate ADs being proposed.
Hmm, estimates in the Mooney world is about 7,000 airplanes still registered, IIRC. Not many used in commercial service.
Having been around airports for many decades, I'd say about 1/2 of registered aircraft actually fly. Suspect not that different for Mooneys - know of several offhand that haven't flown in years or fly 5 hours between annuals. Registration, airworthiness, and utilization are three different things.
Thank you and I will run this with my IA
That’s standard operating procedure for the FAA. I spent four years locked in a grueling battle with them over an fake Airworthiness Directive targeting Robinson R22 main rotor blades. I submitted a mountain of rigorous engineering analysis proving their directive was built on flawed assumptions, not sound physics. They ignored every bit of it. I escalated to the Congressional Aviation Subcommittee, my senator, my representative, and legal counsel.
I have a PA-28 with a good recent inspection, but I still monitor the issue naturally. Looking in to this a bit, there does seem to be some infrastructure being built up to remediate the problem with Cherokees that require it. Hopefully this may lower the cost somewhat, or at least offer better availability of repair expertise. The repair will be expensive, but probably less that of an engine overhaul (if that's any consolation to those afflicted). With a repaired spar, a more valuable and desirable aircraft will result in the end however, something to keep in mind.
