Top of the market?

Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by Groundpounder, Jan 29, 2019.

  1. Stephen Shore

    Stephen Shore Pre-takeoff checklist

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    More than likely the depressed LSA market is because of the expectation of increased GW and performance limits of LSAs.
     
  2. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Not everyone's confidence in revenue stream is shaken by economic downturn. Depends on what your income stream is based on. People working in utilities or other static industries (shampoo/waste disposal) may not care whether the economy is up or down. People working in more volatile industries may feel the impact a lot more.
     
  3. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Or because BasicMed has decreased demand for LSAs.
     
  4. bnt83

    bnt83 Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    Its insane, a beautiful airplane for sale will sell in days IF it even gets officially listed for sale.
     
  5. EugeneR

    EugeneR Pre-Flight

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    Well, FWIW, I bought my Bonanza In 2011 when the market was on it's low, and it was still hard to find a good airplane. All good ones that were priced right were gone in a day. I called the same morning the ad was published and I wasn't the first.

    Fortunately, the plane was not far from me, and I was ready to buy if I liked it, so I went to see it that same day and we proceeded with the paperwork and pre-purchase inspection shortly after.
     
  6. hindsight2020

    hindsight2020 En-Route

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    I'm with you, at least on the ergonomics front. The material comfort differences for a family hauler with a narrow cabin series vs wide cabin makes the two airplanes frankly different categories. I made the same distinction when looking at pre-62 and '62+ brace wing 210s. Especially as someone looking to upgrade on the basis that the cabin width of my PA-28R and non-offset seat placement from the sidewall is absolutely killing my @ss on the ergonomics front after about 3 hours, less if the front pax seat is occupied. For a family mission I would not compare pre and post (-62¿?) 182 cabinsas the same airplane. A 205 would be dream on that front.
     
  7. Vince R

    Vince R Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Went through this last year...spent several months trying to find a nice F33A, and was completely frustrated at the high prices and lack of supply out there. In the end, I gave a broker (Bob Stephens) a chance and it made all the difference. It took another few months, but in the end, Bob’s personal network helped me find several planes that were never listed on the market anywhere. I ended up stretching the budget maybe $25K,but I was lucky enough to find my forever airplane, and I have had zero regrets.Id totally recommend Bob if you’re feeling as stuck and frustrated as I was.
     
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  8. hindsight2020

    hindsight2020 En-Route

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    I'm currently trying to find a niche among several options of low density airplanes. Piper Geronimos [real ones, not the partial stuff people call "geronimos"], Seneca I, and C33As. None to be found in the internet. At any rate, have thought about just letting a broker do the digging since I'm just stumped, but I admit I'm not quite versed on the pricing structure when dealing with a broker as a buyer's agent.
     
  9. kayoh190

    kayoh190 En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Aren’t you looking for more cabin volume? Why the C33A?
     
  10. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I'd be curious to know how they work as well, but more because it's something that greatly interests me as a possible career change...
     
  11. hindsight2020

    hindsight2020 En-Route

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    Mainly because it's Straight tail, individual seats slide back (better leg room for back seaters, earlier than c model are bench with horrid leg room and no baggage area to speak of), CG works compared to newer straight tails, and if we re not getting the limo setup the 225hp c33 and earlier are just not worth the lateral move.

    I sat in one of them last summer, the ergonomics are improved for the back seater, mainly because those seats slide aft. I took a tape measure to the cabin and it is 43.5 inches at the elbows in the front, which is basically Mooney F/j elbow room. Not enough to lateral over my arrow (41.5) if that was the only criteria as you note. So essentially, I sold the wife on 160knots and bat out of hell climb rates of the 285hp. But, they're hens teeth and the newer ones run out of CG for my mission believe or not. Not that it matters, I'm not spending f33a money on it.

    Outside of that exception, my earlier criteria still stands; we re still looking for the limo at arrow speeds or better. The search continues, and I'm not opposed to getting creative, especially with airplanes people love to hate, if it gets me the right discount.
     
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  12. bnt83

    bnt83 Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    I've noticed in the past that whole bunch of these airplanes were bought by the corp that was maintaining it. Obviously if I'm already working on the plane I know what it is worth and may just snag it as soon as the owner breaths the words "might sell".
     
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  13. Clip4

    Clip4 En-Route

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    The economy is not likely to change enough over the next year to help you.
     
  14. Checkout_my_Six

    Checkout_my_Six Final Approach

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    no...interest rates will be steady and aviation fuel prices remain inflated. No change...to slight increase in asking prices.
     
  15. hindsight2020

    hindsight2020 En-Route

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    LOL said everyone on December 29 2008. You guys keep cheering this pump and dump Disneyland economy, it's noble work y'all are doing. :rofl:
    upload_2019-2-11_9-17-40.png
     
  16. GRG55

    GRG55 Final Approach

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    In this morning's news. Krugman speaks. A contrary indicator to the recession forecasts? :popcorn:
    Nothing like a "World Government Summit". In the money laundering capital of the world, Dubai, of all places. :rofl:
    Ranks right up there with Billionaires spending a week telling Millionaires how the world should be run, each year at Davos. :rolleyes1:
    The good thing is they all get to use their private jets to get there. See, you just knew there was an aviation connection to this post. :D

    Paul Krugman expects a global recession this year, warns 'we don't have an effective response'
    • Most economists, as well as some the world's business elite, agree that economic growth is slowing but policymakers have expressed some hope for a soft landing rather than an outright recession.
    • Speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai on Sunday, Paul Krugman said there are good reasons to be skeptical about this scenario.
    Published 6 Hours Ago
     
  17. GRG55

    GRG55 Final Approach

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    I am trying to better understand the nuances between Debonair models you are referring to.
    • Were all the Debonairs the same length fuselage? The "C" changed the back seat from a bench to two separate, adjustable seats? Or did Beech also create a longer interior with the "C", like they did starting with the "S-35" V-tail?
    • What is it about the F33 that causes the CG issue compared to earlier models? Do they just have a narrower CG envelope? Or is there something else at play here?
    When I was considering an A-36 back in 2010, I had a look at a couple of hot rod F33s with 300 hp IO550 conversions. Even in the aftermath of the financial crisis those things were crazy expensive airplanes. But if there's just two people + bags they are fast!
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
  18. hindsight2020

    hindsight2020 En-Route

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    The aircraft overall length on the 33s didn't change, but the C model was the one to get the aft bulkhead pushback 19 inches back, opening up the baggage area the way the ¿N? model 35s and beyond had already benefited from. They did a bastardized super long hat shelf in order to not compete on the trim price differences of the time, but the structure is cosmetic and can be removed without the need for an STC or the like. It's just pieces of cardboard paneling. Here's a pic of me taking a tape to the hatshelf on a C33A, note the depth. That entire façade structure is absent in the later 33s (and earlier 35s of course).
    upload_2019-2-11_11-43-32.png

    The STC to get the large baggage door mod gets rid of that hatshelf nonsense in order to make the added door size usable in the first place. Some of the earliest F33s came with the small door the C33s came with, but the hatshelf gone for instance.

    As noted earlier, the secondary change to this aft bulkhead move was to install the 35 sliding seats, providing an absolute makeover (imo) of the comfort factor of rear pax compared to the fixed bench. The pricing differences between bench bo's and sliding seat ones certainly support the market's relative regard for these improvements. I certainly liken the change to the pre-66 and post 66 comanches of either flavor (single and twin). Two different airplanes as far as I'm concerned, when back pax are centric to one's mission. Prices follow that trend as well.

    The issue with the F33s is that as they got piggy, the EW CG naturally kept creeping back, all the way to around 80+ inches at which point the airplane cannot use its 285HP and corresponding useful load in a way that airplanes like the comanche or cessna 210s can for instance. This makes them de facto 3-seater speedsters, which sure there is a market for, but most can agree is a bit of a waste in the UL department (aka a 260HP plant wouldn't leave much on the table on the cruise speed front). This makes the more rare C33As, which are early F33As by another name, as lighter and with the kind of EW CG that allows them to make better use of the UL afforded by the 520 or 550 if so modded.
     
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  19. Lantraxco

    Lantraxco Pre-takeoff checklist

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    LSA, I can haul myself a small lunch and full fuel for one thing.....
     
  20. Clip4

    Clip4 En-Route

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    July 2008 oil was 147.00 a barrel. Today it is $53.
     
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  21. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Yeah, between inflated oil prices and housing bubble, 2008 easily had some room to fall. I'm not sure what "bubble" we're be sitting on right now, so outside of US-China trade wars or the national debt itself, I'm not sure we're in "recession" territory. A lot of investors/bankers scrambling to find the trigger for a recession right now, but no one really seems to have a hard leading indicator (just things like inverted yield curve, etc). I'm more inclined that the US economy is cooling off mostly due to consumers being less willing to pay the ever-increasing prices for the same goods. I don't know that it's a full-scale recession, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a pause or slight contraction.

    Example: I'm in the market for a new Ford Explorer for the wife. Average sales price has been in the low-to-mid $40's, which I'm not willing to pay. Instead I'm looking for a year or two used and will pay in the low $30's. I realize I'm not at materialistic as many Americans, but I see an increasing number of people who have also made similar decisions on housing and other durable goods. The prices on durable goods has largely gotten out of hand, and that's where I think the correction will likely occur.

    Second automotive example: father just bought a used 2018 F-150 for just under $30K. He can't stomach the thought of paying more than that for a new truck, when he has had F-150s that do largely the same job for thousands less, purchased new. Automotive manufacturers have been making their biggest profits on large trucks and SUVs, while moving the price up accordingly. I think they've reached the tipping point where American's have started to balk. Demand decrease leads to oversupply and subsequent worker layoffs and restructuring ensue.

    Summary: global recession? Eh, I don't see it. Localized contraction in certain market segments? Sure.
     
  22. ktup-flyer

    ktup-flyer En-Route

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    That's how the 182 market is. The good ones go really fast, and they're high right now. Talk to Todd Huvard at Aircraft Merchants and see if he has one or has any leads.