Toilet Paper

Palmpilot said:
We know that there is hoarding going on, because we hear from people who have witnessed others buying in abnormal quantities, but what makes you think that's the only factor at work? That seems like quite an assumption.
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I think @SCCutler has been wiping with tree bark and 80grit sandpaper lately due to the TP shortage. He may not be considering all of the variables at play due to being rubbed the wrong way.
 
:rofl:

Speaking of sandpaper, has anyone tried their local hardware store? ;)
 
SCCutler said:
Nope.

It's hoarding. Only hoarding.

Stupid, brainless, moronic hoarders.

If you hoarded, this is you.

It even happened in Australia.



Three months?

Three months is a routine amount.

There are many, many people out there sitting on two, three years supply.

Hoarders.

Pathetic, idiotic, selfish hoarders.
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I can't tell how you really feel. I need more information please. :D
 
My usual supply for most dry goods is a 3 month supply. It is something I learned about living in small towns. It will be culture shock for me to move to a big city of 60,000 folks.
 
Zeldman said:
My usual supply for most dry goods is a 3 month supply. It is something I learned about living in small towns. It will be culture shock for me to move to a big city of 60,000 folks.
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Back in MD, my sub division was bigger than that. :)

Tim
 
I stopped in at the local WalMart grocery store tonight. They had TP, paper towels, Kleenex, and bottles of bleach. Things may be starting to settle down. But there were still no eggs.
 
OMG! maday, maday, maday!

That stuff I bought at Walmart two weeks ago that I thought was toilet paper turned out to be paper towels and I am down to two rolls!

I'm sure I'll be able to get some TP tomorrow, now that there is a controlled, roped off area and per day limits.
 
IK04 said:
Are people still hoarding TP? WTF...
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Mostly no. It’s a supply chain issue. Millions of people who usually poop at work where the company buys the TP, now have to buy their own TP. Retailers & distributors are trying to find new stocking levels/equilibrium that they’ve never known before. Manufacturers are shifting from institutional size rolls to retail size rolls.

Old saying: “Boss makes a dollar, I make a dime, that’s why I poop on company time.”
 
Still no toilet paper here when I went yesterday to pick up the wife's monthly prescriptions. And I don't know if they've gotten shipments of TP and just sold it all immediately. We still don't need any because we had plenty when this started, but in a month or two, it could get serious at our house.

Still out of a LOT of other stuff, too. Frozen pizzas are low, Pillsbury cinnamon rolls, rice, pasta, fresh and frozen meats are all low or gone, disinfectant cleaners are still gone.

Our town is a tourist town, we aren't having the huge consumption we would normally be having right now because we just aren't getting the visitors we're used to. You should see the store right before a nice warm weekend, it's a bleeding madhouse. I bet the store is trying to order these things, they just aren't getting here because of larger markets getting stocked up first.
 
Toilet paper is ridiculous in the first place. Next time you've put in a long day of manual labor and need a shower, rub some dry paper towels over your body instead and tell me how fresh and clean you feel.

Tabo solves the TP shortage issue once and for all.

 
IK04 said:
OMG! maday, maday, maday!

That stuff I bought at Walmart two weeks ago that I thought was toilet paper turned out to be paper towels and I am down to two rolls!

I'm sure I'll be able to get some TP tomorrow, now that there is a controlled, roped off area and per day limits.
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@IK04, I am feeling very nice today. I will ship you two rolls of the best Charmin I have for $45 plus $5 handling fee. I will pay the shipping! Deal? :)
 
Zeldman said:
I will sell 2 rolls of TP for $1.00 plus a $50 shipping and handling fee....

But wait, order 2 more rolls and pay a separate $50 fee...:lol:
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I will now give away two rolls of TP for free with a $50 handling fee **AND** I will still pay the shipping! No returns accepted however. Orders must be prepaid in advance. :)
 
Wife lucked into a 30pk of Charmin at Walmart.

A week earlier, she had put in an online grocery order and they substituted her Charmin for a 4-pack of Angel Soft (only thing available) and she was NOT happy with it, lol. I think we’re good on TP at least until mid-summer. I guess if you want something done right you gotta do it yourself!
 
Palmpilot said:
We know that there is hoarding going on, because we hear from people who have witnessed others buying in abnormal quantities, but what makes you think that's the only factor at work? That seems like quite an assumption.
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It is. I base it upon my observation of people buying many-multiples of huge packages at the beginning of this whole clusterduck. That, and chatting with the (profoundly overworked) folks at Costco.

SoonerAviator said:
I think @SCCutler has been wiping with tree bark and 80grit sandpaper lately due to the TP shortage. He may not be considering all of the variables at play due to being rubbed the wrong way.
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Naw. Bought some in December or so, looks like we’re still good to at least July.

Bob Long said:
Mostly no. It’s a supply chain issue. Millions of people who usually poop at work where the company buys the TP, now have to buy their own TP. Retailers & distributors are trying to find new stocking levels/equilibrium that they’ve never known before. Manufacturers are shifting from institutional size rolls to retail size rolls.

Old saying: “Boss makes a dollar, I make a dime, that’s why I poop on company time.”
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Not buying it. We’re this the case, all the commercial/industrial suppliers would have stock aplenty. They don’t. It’s hoarding.
 
My wife went to Target this afternoon, and there were about 15 packages of Charmin on a display. She got one, so we should be good for another month.

She went to the grocery store as well and found a family pack of chicken. Some of the meat packing plants are having difficulty staying open because their staffs are becoming ill with Covid-19.

Some of these facilities produce a number of percent of the country's meat. Having plants that large just doesn't seem wise.
 
Stopped in Wally World today to pick up some iced tea bags and cereal for the kiddos. TP aisle was fully stocked, the paper towel aisle was still a little thin (cheaper brands still available). So either I hit the store right after they stocked it (was around 8:15a), or they've managed to start catching up to local demand.
 
We are now experiencing the tradeoff between efficiency and redundancy. The supply chains have been tuned for many years to be as efficient as possible to drive prices down (and still make a profit). The result is absolute minimum slack or excess capacity. This is (in computer architectural terms) a tightly coupled system. It is vulnerable to any of its parts having problems.

TP is one thing, food is another. And we have farmers plowing under produce and dumping milk because the next link in their chain is stopped while grocery stores are limiting purchases because the stores can't get stuff from their suppliers. And it's not easy or perhaps possible to just switch. As @James_Dean explained, he's got an egg farm that is set up to product tens of thousands of gallons of liquid eggs a day. But not set up to produce cartons of eggs the way a consumer store would sell them.

The supply chain is going to get more messed up before it gets better. I'm not advocating hoarding of staples-it's selfish. But be aware you may have to substitute and make do...
 
jsstevens said:
We are now experiencing the tradeoff between efficiency and redundancy. The supply chains have been tuned for many years to be as efficient as possible to drive prices down (and still make a profit). The result is absolute minimum slack or excess capacity. This is (in computer architectural terms) a tightly coupled system. It is vulnerable to any of its parts having problems.

TP is one thing, food is another. And we have farmers plowing under produce and dumping milk because the next link in their chain is stopped while grocery stores are limiting purchases because the stores can't get stuff from their suppliers. And it's not easy or perhaps possible to just switch. As @James_Dean explained, he's got an egg farm that is set up to product tens of thousands of gallons of liquid eggs a day. But not set up to produce cartons of eggs the way a consumer store would sell them.

The supply chain is going to get more messed up before it gets better. I'm not advocating hoarding of staples-it's selfish. But be aware you may have to substitute and make do...
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I think reopening the country for business is getting closer. There may be suppliers, like egg producers, that aren't going to switch since they'll have to switch right back again. Even if things are open and hotel and restaurant businesses are slow to reopen or slow to gain business back, they'll start ordering again.
 
Matthew said:
I think reopening the country for business is getting closer. There may be suppliers, like egg producers, that aren't going to switch since they'll have to switch right back again. Even if things are open and hotel and restaurant businesses are slow to reopen or slow to gain business back, they'll start ordering again.
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That is one example. But the middle of the supply chain is also messed up. Ships that can't change crews without triggering quarantine, etc. Meat packing plants closing "indefinitely". And very little, if any, excess capacity in the chain to accommodate interruptions. For the most part, stores store inventory on the shelf. They get supplied, sometimes daily from warehouses, which in turn get supplied nearly daily from producers. Any interruption exhausts that point in the chain. People buying more (some for legitimate reasons, others through selfish panic) exhausts the local store. Several stores now exhaust the warehouse, and the suppliers are not able to keep up. Food is international with multiple stages including harvest, packing, shipping (literally ships in some cases), trains and trucks and warehouses to (finally) store shelves and our pantry. It's great when it's all flowing. It's tremendously efficient and cost effective. But there is no slack in it-by design.

John
 
Matthew said:
I think reopening the country for business is getting closer. There may be suppliers, like egg producers, that aren't going to switch since they'll have to switch right back again. Even if things are open and hotel and restaurant businesses are slow to reopen or slow to gain business back, they'll start ordering again.
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Why do you think that? What has changed in the fundamental transmission of COVID-19?

Tim
 
tspear said:
Why do you think that? What has changed in the fundamental transmission of COVID-19?

Tim
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Because things like this are happening this week:

https://www.wilx.com/content/news/Operation-Gridlock-protest-underway-569659601.html

The shutdown can't go on forever, so every day is one day closer. May 1 is going to be a big day - for no particular reason other than it's a fresh month on the calendar that's going to be a good time for people to really consider how much longer they are going to let this go on.
 
The wife went to Walmart yesterday. TP was almost back to normal, and no one was there to guard the amount taken per person. But Walmart apparently started using dating site rules.... singles only for shopping, no couples....
 
Matthew said:
Because things like this are happening this week:

https://www.wilx.com/content/news/Operation-Gridlock-protest-underway-569659601.html

The shutdown can't go on forever, so every day is one day closer. May 1 is going to be a big day - for no particular reason other than it's a fresh month on the calendar that's going to be a good time for people to really consider how much longer they are going to let this go on.
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Even if businesses open tomorrow, I think it will be a while before hotels and restaurants are back to even partial capacity, let alone airlines or other places where people are forced to be in close proximity to each other. I know plenty of people who won't go outside their house even though exercise is permitted. I have a relative who has chastised me for going for walks on the beach or in the park. :rolleyes:
 
Everskyward said:
Even if businesses open tomorrow, I think it will be a while before hotels and restaurants are back to even partial capacity, let alone airlines or other places where people are forced to be in close proximity to each other. I know plenty of people who won't go outside their house even though exercise is permitted. I have a relative who has chastised me for going for walks on the beach or in the park. :rolleyes:
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That's going to be key for a lot of businesses. It's also going to result in a sort of unofficial ramp-up. There are people suggesting to phase-in a reopening, I think a lot of that is going to happen on its own. I still expect there will be another spike in infections as people get back into society.
 
Matthew said:
Because things like this are happening this week:

https://www.wilx.com/content/news/Operation-Gridlock-protest-underway-569659601.html

The shutdown can't go on forever, so every day is one day closer. May 1 is going to be a big day - for no particular reason other than it's a fresh month on the calendar that's going to be a good time for people to really consider how much longer they are going to let this go on.
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Any governor or mayor that listens to business people without a plan on how to handle a flair up will kill many people in public.Here are the basic choices:
  • Fundamentally, we have failed to test to be able to be surgical on the social distancing. Per multiple articles; such as https://www.vox.com/2020/4/13/21215133/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-screening We need between 750K and 22M tests a day to effectively reopen the economy and be able to manage hot spots. The variation in count largely comes down to assumptions; with higher numbers of tests actually being less invasive to civil liberties (more testing means less tracing). It has taken over two months to do 1M tests. South Korea and Germany are managing this way. There are other examples also.
  • A vaccine. Most scientists say optimistic timeline is one year, realistic is 18 to 24 months.
  • Miracle cure, basically something that makes a viral infection a non-event like the 24 hour cold.
  • Accept a massive loss of life and let the disease run rampant though society.
  • Accept a flair up, and drop the sledge hammer again shutting everything down.
Tim
 
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Going to the grocery store in a few minutes. Will report back on toilet paper status. The shop rite I go to is always packed. They are making a killing during this. I would go to the nearby target or Walmart but their prices are almost double what shop rite charges.
 
And there will be a lot more economic impacts downstream of here. Businesses that survive by spending savings for this (which is the right thing to do, I think, assuming you can see your business recovering) will fail in the coming months as the dominoes of millions of people out of work trickle through the economy. I expect lots of restaurants and consumer service businesses to get impacted.

I'm not a pessimist by nature (though I am an engineer so I look for problems to handle...) but even if we throw open the flood gates on May 1, there are lots of businesses that won't survive.
 
jsstevens said:
And there will be a lot more economic impacts downstream of here. Businesses that survive by spending savings for this (which is the right thing to do, I think, assuming you can see your business recovering) will fail in the coming months as the dominoes of millions of people out of work trickle through the economy. I expect lots of restaurants and consumer service businesses to get impacted.

I'm not a pessimist by nature (though I am an engineer so I look for problems to handle...) but even if we throw open the flood gates on May 1, there are lots of businesses that won't survive.
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Opening the floodgates on May 1 isn't realistically going to happen, literally or figuratively. Some states or some counties (especially rural areas) may give the go-ahead to reopen business as usual, and nobody may see a difference other than the barbershop will have a line.

Other places may give the go-ahead, too, but people will still be hesitant to go out into crowds so even if a bar or restaurant re-opens they may see reduced numbers.

Schools are already done for the year, so that's a non-factor.

The big businesses (sports and large concert venues) will have to figure out a way they can re-start, get people to actually come to the events, and figure out how to handle the bad publicity they will get when there is a rise in COVID cases because of it.

Since this is the TP thread: I have been checking local supplies and using that as sign of how people are beginning to get used to being out of work, at home, or both. And I'm seeing more and more stock on shelves. I suppose that's a good thing, it's kind of important, but if it's also a sign that people are showing an attitude of resignation then that's probably not good at all. When people lose hope of getting back to work, especially after a long period of unemployment followed by "finally!!" followed by "how am I going to pay the bills now that I'm unemployed again?", that's not a good thing.
 
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