The Economy

[Tom-D]

I think we know where the economy is, The cause isn't the fault of one person, or even one group, But that's not the point.

Where is it going from here forward, what indicators do you believe will be the best to indicate the future?

I cut the deal this morning with the bank, I feel I can't lose the investment, the machines alone cover the cost of the short sale for the mortgage.

 

[JOhnH]

Gosh, I wonder what happened back in the early 80's to start such a period of sustained growth.

OK, but that period was one of the flatter periods in history with some ups and downs in-between. Here's a historical graph. I didn't realize it before but the 60s, 70s and 80s were pretty flat too yet some people look back fondly.

 

[Palmpilot]

So from March of 1999 (the first time the Dow "broke" 10,000) to the present day, the Dow grew roughly 30%, or 2.5%/year.

Yawn. There's an investment for ya... doesn't even keep up with the government's false inflation rate, so anyone trapped by the tax benefits of retirement accounts in stocks that make up the Dow, has consistently lost money since 1999.

The Dow is a complete joke as an index anyway, but it's fairly indicative of the Market overall over that large of a period of time.

Is that still true if you count dividends?

 

[Anthony]

That's only if you held the same stocks during the whole period and didn't buy at all during the lower points.

Sure timing the market for its ups and downs is easy. Anyone can do it.
And dollar cost averaging, while a decent, long term strategy also forces you to buy at the ups as well as the downs. You can't just buy at all the downpoints unless you've got friends like Obama has.

 

[Palmpilot]

I think we know where the economy is, The cause isn't the fault of one person, or even one group, But that's not the point.

Where is it going from here forward, what indicators do you believe will be the best to indicate the future?

I cut the deal this morning with the bank, I feel I can't lose the investment, the machines alone cover the cost of the short sale for the mortgage.

Best of luck. I hope it works out for you!

 

[Palmpilot]

Sure timing the market for its ups and downs is easy. Anyone can do it.
And dollar cost averaging, while a decent, long term strategy also forces you to buy at the ups as well as the downs. You can't just buy at all the downpoints unless you've got friends like Obama has.

She didn't say anything about buying ONLY at the lows.

You're right that dollar cost averaging results in buying near the highs as well as the lows, but it also automatically ensures that more of your holdings are bought below the average price than above it.

 

[Everskyward]

Sure timing the market for its ups and downs is easy. Anyone can do it.
And dollar cost averaging, while a decent, long term strategy also forces you to buy at the ups as well as the downs. You can't just buy at all the downpoints unless you've got friends like Obama has.

Tom wants to keep this out of the SZ and you keep pushing it that way.

 

[Jim Logajan]

With regard to the economy, you originally asked only this:

What indicators do you use to tell what it is doing..

And you stated the motivation for the question:

I have an opportunity to buy a small company at about .05 cents on the dollar, it will only make sense if the economy improves.

With regard to the original question: for that last several years I've been doing a simple count of job openings advertised on LinkedIn within 100 miles of my zip code. It has basically doubled since its low point about 3 years ago. However, the growth could be due in part to the growing popularity of LinkedIn as a place to advertise jobs. Still, the ability to search only my geographical area gives me better insight into local economic conditions.

I notice that in general, the percentage of the U.S. population that is currently employed is greater than it was from the period 1948 to 1977. But it is smaller than it was from the period 1977 to 2010. Which period should be considered the "norm"? Why did it increase from 1982 to 1989? (The TV series "Family Ties" ran for that period also; clearly it should be brought back to improve the economy. Ronald Reagan was also president from 1981 to 1989; not sure there is any causal element there.)

 

[Anthony]

Tom wants to keep this out of the SZ and you keep pushing it that way.

Sorry! I've been drinking the 100LL!