The Best Time to Own a Plane in Years is NOW

[Jay Honeck]

Where is AOPA in their marketing efforts to boost aviation? Can there be any doubt that this is the best time to purchase a used aircraft in many, many years?

Example: My Pathfinder briefly flirted with a six-figure value, back in 2003-4. Now? You can get a Pathfinder for 40% (or more) LESS than that.

Yes, fuel prices are higher, but acquisition costs are peanuts compared to ten years ago. There are some amazing deals to be had -- and the general public is completely unaware of it.

So...I ask again -- WHERE is AOPA with their ads to promote GA? Talk about a missed opportunity!

Another question: Why is there no nation-wide co-op of aircraft sales dealers? Or is there? Shouldn't THEY be pooling their money to buy ads, letting the world know about the great deals to be had?

People simply don't believe me when I tell them that their F-250 Super Duty cost more than a good, solid, 4-seat airplane. IMHO, this represents a MAJOR failure on the part of GA and the groups we are paying to advocate for us.

 

[steingar]

I don't even think avgas prices are that hight. In real dollars they're probably the same as when I started flying. Yeah, there will never be a better time. The disused aircraft driving down prices will get scrapped eventually, and prices will likely climb again.

 

[Bob Noel]

Sorry to be deputy downer, but the problem isn't the purchase price. The problem is the expense to operate and maintain an aircraft. This is going to get worse with the ADS-B mandate.

The uncertainty about finding a viable replacement for 100LL is another problem.

TSA isn't helping at all.

 

[steingar]

The problem is the expense to operate and maintain an aircraft.

Actually, I think the maintenance costs really aren't any higher in real dollars than they ever have been. They certainly seem like more, as they are a greater percentage of the aircraft's actual worth.

 

[Old Geek]

What Bob said. Hanger costs are my single highest expense.

 

[dmccormack]

All of the above PLUS...

Owners trying to sell today for what they paid 7 years ago.

"But I paid $110k for this Cherokee! It's pristine!"

Yeah, and you'll be lucky to unload it for $45.

 

[denverpilot]

Where is AOPA in their marketing efforts to boost aviation? Can there be any doubt that this is the best time to purchase a used aircraft in many, many years?

Example: My Pathfinder briefly flirted with a six-figure value, back in 2003-4. Now? You can get a Pathfinder for 40% (or more) LESS than that.

Yes, fuel prices are higher, but acquisition costs are peanuts compared to ten years ago. There are some amazing deals to be had -- and the general public is completely unaware of it.

So...I ask again -- WHERE is AOPA with their ads to promote GA? Talk about a missed opportunity!

What motivation is there for AOPA with a bunch of advertising paid for by companies like Cessna who are trying to hawk $275K Skyhawks... and what are they as an organization going to gain -- by telling people older aircraft are more affordable than any time in the last two decades?

Hint: They don't make their real money from membership dues. Which is one of the major problems of the organization. It's not focused on the members.

I've begged various people at AOPA to PUBLISH the true costs of the "Better than new 182" so 182 owners could compare the work quality that was done to a price tag and actually provide some value to the members. They won't do it.

Another question: Why is there no nation-wide co-op of aircraft sales dealers? Or is there? Shouldn't THEY be pooling their money to buy ads, letting the world know about the great deals to be had?

People simply don't believe me when I tell them that their F-250 Super Duty cost more than a good, solid, 4-seat airplane. IMHO, this represents a MAJOR failure on the part of GA and the groups we are paying to advocate for us.

Aircraft dealers are often a mixed bag of straight shooters (rare) and such crooks that they'd never be able to form a cohesive organization.

 

[DaleB]

Example: My Pathfinder briefly flirted with a six-figure value, back in 2003-4. Now? You can get a Pathfinder for 40% (or more) LESS than that.

My truck was worth a lot more a year ago than it is now, too. My Harley was worth $25K or more when your Pathfinder's value peaked. It wouldn't bring half that now. There aren't many vehicles that make good investments, and neither F150s, Ultra Classics or PA-28s are really in that category.

Having said that, yeah, prices do seem to be depressed right now for several reasons. If you're thinking about buying a plane, it seems that now would be a good time.

• Lots of older pilots quitting flying or losing their medicals? Check.
• New manufacturers increasing the flow of really nice new aircraft? Check.
• People trying to dump expensive toys? Check.
• LSA category capturing a lot of weekend recreational fliers who have more airplane than they need? Check.
• People building RVs faster than you can say, "Overhead break"? Check.

I just hope it stays this way until I get mine bought. Every couple of months I am able to revise my target aircraft one notch. I started out looking at Cherokee 140s... now a 182, Comanche or Arrow is not out of the question. Six months from now -- who knows?

 

[Anthony]

As always though it is the other cost beyond acquisition that is the killer, especially as the fleet ages. Many planes could use restorations at this point in their lifespan. What's the average age of the GA fleet? 35 years or something. Maintenance, insurance, fuel, engine, and airframe funds, hangars, avionics, etc all add up to more than many want to take on. If you have a "gotcha" engine problem or have to add a couple of boxes, then that's $$$.

Even if planes were free, the operating costs of maintaining a plane could keep people away.

 

[Alexb2000]

It's the economy, period.

Stock market- shaky (retail investors are still mostly burned)
Oil- high likely going higher
Deficit- growing quickly
World- Iran, Europe, china
Banks- tighter than a tick
Housing (most people's largest asset)- sucks except in D.C.

I expect the best deal in aircraft will be simple use agreements with existing owners who don't want to or can't sell this cheap and still want some help with carring cost. I would look here first vs. buying if my mission allowed it.

 

[Bob Noel]

I just hope it stays this way until I get mine bought. Every couple of months I am able to revise my target aircraft one notch. I started out looking at Cherokee 140s... now a 182, Comanche or Arrow is not out of the question. Six months from now -- who knows?

Do not, do not, do NOT forget about being able to afford the maintenance and insurance on the bigger/faster aircraft.

 

[cbmontgo]

My biggest question is the supply and demand for airplanes. It seems that there are fewer and fewer civilian, non-commercial pilots entering the world of aviation. This is then compounded by existing pilots losing medicals by the dozens every day.

I am curious what will fill the "gap"? Will the demand for airplanes ever reach or surpass the supply again?

 

[DaleB]

Do not, do not, do NOT forget about being able to afford the maintenance and insurance on the bigger/faster aircraft.

Of course you have to take that all into account, just like with anything else. But when the observed asking prices for some of these have dropped $10K - $15K or more since I started looking... that'll buy a lot of "can-do". When I look at buying (whether it's got wings or not), I look in a price range that won't tap me out but will leave a comfortable margin for upkeep, maintenance and insurance. There are now a lot more airplanes in that range than there were six months ago - although I'll admit that price range has crept up just a bit, too.

Many planes could use restorations at this point in their lifespan. What's the average age of the GA fleet? 35 years or something. Maintenance, insurance, fuel, engine, and airframe funds, hangars, avionics, etc all add up to more than many want to take on. If you have a "gotcha" engine problem or have to add a couple of boxes, then that's $$$.

Very true, which probably contributes to the declining prices - they're OLD airplanes, by and large, and look like it. But you could buy one and do a complete interior refurb, new paint, fresh engine AND a panel update and you'd still spend less than the cost of a new Skycatcher (and have much more airplane).

 

[Ted]

Even if planes were free, the operating costs of maintaining a plane could keep people away.

As someone who operates a free plane, you are absolutely correct.

 

[RotorAndWing]

There are some amazing deals to be had -- and the general public is completely unaware of it.

The general public is painfully aware of it.

 

[olasek]

So...I ask again -- WHERE is AOPA with their ads to promote GA? Talk about a missed opportunity!

Not sure what promotion of GA has to do with depressed aircraft values, most people who get into flying don't own any aircraft or won't own one even when they finally get their PPL. And I don't see any depressed prices in getting your certificates.

As to AOPA promoting aircraft ownership - here you might have a point. The problem is with general slump in economy and the very depressed real estate values, people just feel they no longer have enough spare equity to justify aircraft aquistition, whether depressed real estate is exactly compensated by depressed aircraft cost is debatable considering that operating costs are nowhere near 'depressed' enough.

 

[Tom-D]

Now does any one realize why I say when a buyer has a 200k buy-in budget, I tell them to buy a $45K 210 and save the rest of the budget for operations costs? and quit with the up grades, just go fly it.

 

[wsuffa]

Well, there is the safety and security thing. "Fly one of those little deaftrap planes? NO!!!! Better be safe then sorry out of an abundance of caution"

 

[Bob Noel]

Now does any one realize why I say when a buyer has a 200k buy-in budget, I tell them to buy a $45K 210 and save the rest of the budget for operations costs? and quit with the up grades, just go fly it.

raises hand....

 

[Ted]

Now does any one realize why I say when a buyer has a 200k buy-in budget, I tell them to buy a $45K 210 and save the rest of the budget for operations costs?

Seems a lot of people agreed on not spending $200k. But the 210 is another matter.

and quit with the up grades, just go fly it.

That depends on your mission and your needs.

 

[Jay Honeck]

Not sure what promotion of GA has to do with depressed aircraft values, most people who get into flying don't own any aircraft or won't own one even when they finally get their PPL. And I don't see any depressed prices in getting your certificates.

I probably talk to more non-pilot aviation enthusiasts than most people, simply my virtue of my business.

There are LOTS of people out there who are enamored with flying. Almost without exception, they are astounded when I tell them how relatively inexpensive an airplane that will take their family across the continent really IS.

THAT is a major failure on the part of our GA promoting bodies, be they AOPA, EAA, GAMA, or whatever.

IMHO, if the general public KNEW how affordable personal aircraft really were, there might be a lot more of us flying them.

 

[denverpilot]

There's a few things I tell folks...

Getting and stating current requires a money and time commitment... forever. Or you stop.

You're in charge of your own safety.

Some people love that idea. Others are not interested after that's explained to them.

Pricing for private aircraft travel will never beat cattle car airlines, but Greyhound is cheap too.

Just like its nice to drive your own car, it's nice to fly your own plane. You pay a bit more for the privilege. No airline and TSA hassles, and your flight departs when you rotate and climb aloft. No schedules.

Unlike Greyhound, your "car" probably doesn't go as fast as the "bus". It'll take longer. Stop somewhere and see the sights.

 

[Jim_R]

IMHO, if the general public KNEW how affordable personal aircraft really were, there might be a lot more of us flying them.

Heh. There are lots of ways to sell GA to the public. As an aircraft owner myself, "It's cheaper than you might think!" doesn't seem to me to be a very realistic one. (In my own personal experience, it's been every bit as expensive as I was afraid it would be, and then some.)

 

[Anthony]

IMHO, if the general public KNEW how affordable personal aircraft really were, there might be a lot more of us flying them.

I think your permise is flawed. Sole ownership of a typcial four place GA airplane with decent/modern IFR avionics, that can actually go places that people want to go is NOT "affordable". Motorcycles are affordable. Owning, operating, and maintaining travelling aircraft are not.

 

[Anthony]

Heh. There are lots of ways to sell GA to the public. As an aircraft owner myself, "It's cheaper than you might think!" doesn't seem to me to be a very realistic one. (In my own personal experience, it's been every bit as expensive as I was afraid it would be, and then some.)

^^^^^^ This.

 

[Everskyward]

I think your permise is flawed. Sole ownership of a typcial four place GA airplane with decent/modern IFR avionics, that can actually go places that people want to go is NOT "affordable". Motorcycles are affordable. Owning, operating, and maintaining travelling aircraft are not.

Then there is the additional problem of the family if they are not particularly amused by flying. I have known a number of people who have sold their airplane or share in one because their spouse was not enthused about small airplane trips.

 

[Anthony]

Then there is the additional problem of the family if they are not particularly amused by flying. I have known a number of people who have sold their airplane or share in one because their spouse was not enthused about small airplane trips.

Yeah, me too.

Unfortunately, it is a very emotional subject for some.

 

[tonycondon]

How much money does it take? All of it.

 

[Jay Honeck]

I think your permise is flawed. Sole ownership of a typcial four place GA airplane with decent/modern IFR avionics, that can actually go places that people want to go is NOT "affordable". Motorcycles are affordable. Owning, operating, and maintaining travelling aircraft are not.

Look, I'm not talking about being "affordable" for your $8.50/hour laborer. I'm talking about being "affordable" for guys who own their own business, are into boating, etc.

These people have NO idea that a good, solid, 4-seat airplane can be purchased for less than $50K. Some even think I'm lying when I tell them that, since they're driving around in their $60K Beemer.

This is a major marketing failure. It's as if there were millions of people pining for a car, not knowing that they were available at an affordable cost.

The point being that the time has never been better to get into personal flying. Airplanes cost literally half of what they did ten years ago, not even factoring in inflation. And the general, non-flying public does not know it.

 

[Jay Honeck]

Then there is the additional problem of the family if they are not particularly amused by flying. I have known a number of people who have sold their airplane or share in one because their spouse was not enthused about small airplane trips.

There are a million reasons not to fly.

I'm talking about the biggest reason TO fly -- affordable personal airplanes. IMHO, one of the biggest impediments to flying is the presumption by millions of people that "airplanes cost a million bucks".

I spend an inordinate amount of time talking to non-flying wannabees (they make up the majority of our hotel guests) -- and all are astonished when I tell them how inexpensive used airplanes are today. Almost without exception, they "thought" that planes were much more expensive -- in the mid-to-high 6 figure range.

That kind of thinking makes people automatically and immediately discard the notion of learning to fly, simply because they think to themselves "Well, I'll never be able to buy one."

That is a major obstacle in our quest to save general aviation. We need to fix it.

 

[Jay Honeck]

How much money does it take? All of it.

True that, but that's only because we are hopelessly addicted.

 

[wabower]

The problem with your theory is that you're looking backward rather than forward. A "good buy" can't be measured by comparing today's prices against yesterday's prices. Demographics and market fundamentals are strongly aligned against airplanes being a good buy now, or at any time in the foreseeable future. I'll take any bet you'd like to make about airplanes holding their value in the future.

As to missed opportunities, buyers are notorious for missing the "buy low-sell high" opportunities that arise during market cycles, simply because the events that caused the down-turn in pricing are wide-spread and affect buyers as well as sellers. When you're wondering if your business will be around for another year due to the impact of the recession, spending money on an airplane suddenly seems less important than when you were making a killing.

Look, I'm not talking about being "affordable" for your $8.50/hour laborer. I'm talking about being "affordable" for guys who own their own business, are into boating, etc.

These people have NO idea that a good, solid, 4-seat airplane can be purchased for less than $50K. Some even think I'm lying when I tell them that, since they're driving around in their $60K Beemer.

This is a major marketing failure. It's as if there were millions of people pining for a car, not knowing that they were available at an affordable cost.

The point being that the time has never been better to get into personal flying. Airplanes cost literally half of what they did ten years ago, not even factoring in inflation. And the general, non-flying public does not know it.

 

[Anthony]

Look, I'm not talking about being "affordable" for your $8.50/hour laborer. I'm talking about being "affordable" for guys who own their own business, are into boating, etc.

I fully understand that. I am talking about people with significant discretionary income.

These people have NO idea that a good, solid, 4-seat airplane can be purchased for less than $50K. Some even think I'm lying when I tell them that, since they're driving around in their $60K Beemer.

This is a major marketing failure. It's as if there were millions of people pining for a car, not knowing that they were available at an affordable cost.

The point being that the time has never been better to get into personal flying. Airplanes cost literally half of what they did ten years ago, not even factoring in inflation. And the general, non-flying public does not know it.

I agree that the acquisition cost is lower today, than ten years ago. However, operating expenses, and maintenance have increased and far outpace the smaller cost to purchase.

Say you buy John Baker's Archer for $30K. Nice plane, and a GREAT deal. Let's assume 100% finance so we can quantify a monthly payment. Avergae aircraft loan is probably 10 years, maybe 15, but I'll use 10.

Monthly payment: $333 (@6%, 10 years)
Insurance: $100/mos (depends on time in type, total hours etc)
Hangar: $350 (varies greatly)
Maintenance including Annual: Let's use $250/mos which is very conservative, as this is a REAL Wild Card.
Gas: $500/mos (100 hours per year at $6.00/gal, 10 GPH)
Misc: $100/mos

So that is $1,633/mos with absolutely NO gotchas in engine issues, avionics, etc., and NO RESERVES. So to be able to swing that and handle a gotcha, you are talking at least $2K/month, which is another mortgage payment on a second home or retirement savings, kid's college fund, etc....

Still sound "affordable"? A $40K "Beemer" is only going to cost the guy $900/mos and be paid off in five years if he/she finances 100%.

I think your argument is misleading.

 

[Henning]

I think your permise is flawed. Sole ownership of a typcial four place GA airplane with decent/modern IFR avionics, that can actually go places that people want to go is NOT "affordable". Motorcycles are affordable. Owning, operating, and maintaining travelling aircraft are not.

'Affordable' is variable by the persons circumstances. To some a personal A380 is affordable. Jay is correct in that there is a large market segment that could afford GA that isn't participating. I don't think that introducing many of them to GA will lead to any significant increase in numbers of active pilots. Many when introduced and consider GA will find low practicality and usefulness for their $$$ (especially those with family issues) and will decide to keep the boat or get their kid a better horse or whatever. Aviation gives a very limited bang for the buck. If that limited bang isn't worth everything you have, then aviation probably isn't an activity that will bring one great satisfaction. The guy who drives the $60k Beemer while able to afford aviation will likely have to make sacrifices to do so, is aviation worth that sacrifice?

 

[Anthony]

Sure there a lots of people that can afford anything the want. We are talking about the upper middle income types, I believe. I still don't consider $2K/month "affordable" for this group considering other demands on their money. Kids, education, healthcare, keeping the wife happy, second homes, nice cars, nice vacations, etc.

 

[Jay Honeck]

The problem with your theory is that you're looking backward rather than forward. A "good buy" can't be measured by comparing today's prices against yesterday's prices.

No offense, but that's just silly talk.

Of COURSE you measure a "good buy" by comparing prices to what they were yesterday. We do that with EVERYTHING, from the cost of a hotel room, to buying tires for the car.

If the price has gone down, we are happy, and are more likely to buy. It's how the economy works.

Demographics and market fundamentals are strongly aligned against airplanes being a good buy now, or at any time in the foreseeable future. I'll take any bet you'd like to make about airplanes holding their value in the future.

Now that is 100% true -- but I'm not talking about buying an airplane as an appreciating asset. I timed that market right once, back in 2002. I doubt it will ever happen again -- and we should not be selling airplane ownership with that unrealistic goal.

As to missed opportunities, buyers are notorious for missing the "buy low-sell high" opportunities that arise during market cycles, simply because the events that caused the down-turn in pricing are wide-spread and affect buyers as well as sellers. When you're wondering if your business will be around for another year due to the impact of the recession, spending money on an airplane suddenly seems less important than when you were making a killing.

Absolutely true, and (as I've said in other posts) there are a million reasons to NOT fly. Uncertainty in the future is the biggest impediment to EVERYTHING in our economy right now.

However, this has nothing to do with my salient point -- which is that our aviation advocacy groups have done a terrible job of trumpeting the fact that "AIRPLANES ARE ON SALE TODAY". This should be part of a huge marketing campaign to get more pilots into the left seat.

 

[Jay Honeck]

'Affordable' is variable by the persons circumstances. To some a personal A380 is affordable. Jay is correct in that there is a large market segment that could afford GA that isn't participating. I don't think that introducing many of them to GA will lead to any significant increase in numbers of active pilots. Many when introduced and consider GA will find low practicality and usefulness for their $$$ (especially those with family issues) and will decide to keep the boat or get their kid a better horse or whatever. Aviation gives a very limited bang for the buck. If that limited bang isn't worth everything you have, then aviation probably isn't an activity that will bring one great satisfaction. The guy who drives the $60k Beemer while able to afford aviation will likely have to make sacrifices to do so, is aviation worth that sacrifice?

When I see the sacrifices people make to own BOATS down here on the island, I have faith that they would jump at the relatively-more-useful personal airplanes -- if only they knew about them.

Think about it: Boats go...no where. In circles, really, if they ever leave the dock at all -- AND they cost a freaking fortune to operate. An airplane can go ANYWHERE....

The industry has done a terrible job of marketing this concept. If you look back in the magazines from the 1950s, they did better.

 

[tonycondon]

kids and wives tend to enjoy boats more than planes, based on my observations of airports and public docks.

 

[Henning]

When I see the sacrifices people make to own BOATS down here on the island, I have faith that they would jump at the relatively-more-useful personal airplanes -- if only they knew about them.

Think about it: Boats go...no where. In circles, really, if they ever leave the dock at all -- AND they cost a freaking fortune to operate. An airplane can go ANYWHERE....

The industry has done a terrible job of marketing this concept. If you look back in the magazines from the 1950s, they did better.

A boat is your floating seaside condo where you can eat and drink and find shelter. You can live on your boat for extended periods of time. A boat provides infinitely more options of usability than a small plane. For the price of my plane I could have bought a 70' sail boat.

I've said all along, if you want to grow GA you have to grow the social/recreational aspect of it. The get togethers and the meets. The opportunities to find a mate, that's what recreational $$$ are all about.

 

[Jay Honeck]

I think your argument is misleading.

I'm not talking about being "affordable" to people who would finance 100% of the purchase of an Archer. I'm talking about being "affordable" to people with some assets, who could buy an Archer with cash, or maybe finance a third.

Flying will never be "cheap" -- but the time to buy has never been better, in my lifetime.