Tesla Trolling

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by denverpilot, May 20, 2018.

  1. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Get the Chevy Bolt or Volt. Bolt is pure EV and over 200 mile range. The Volt is 40 miles then and ICE kicks in.
    Or the old standby Toyota Prius.

    Sent from my LG-TP260 using Tapatalk
     
  2. CC268

    CC268 Final Approach

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    I could never buy a Chevy and could never own a Prius :p
     
  3. JOhnH

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    $300-$400 / month is meaningless to us unless we know your current mpg and driving patterns. There is a good chance a Tesla would not fit your mission at all.
     
  4. CC268

    CC268 Final Approach

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    I was mostly trolling when I said that...
     
  5. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    I should have guessed. It was actually kind of obvious.
     
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  6. TheGolfPilot

    TheGolfPilot Line Up and Wait

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    Do you have electricity at home? How many times a year are you driving more than 250 miles in a day?
     
  7. Dav8or

    Dav8or Final Approach

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    Then keep buying that gasoline that seems to be getting cheaper by the day! Trolls like gasoline, right?
     
  8. CC268

    CC268 Final Approach

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    I like the Tesla...I think it’s a cool car and the SUV model is pretty cool too. I couldn’t afford one though. Not even close. And I agree with much of what’s been said here. It wouldn’t be practical for me. I don’t like spending that much on gas, but owning a truck came a long with growing up racing motocross
     
  9. 3393RP

    3393RP Pattern Altitude

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    Earlier in May the WSJ reported TSLA is the most shorted stock on any American exchange, and further shorts are unable to find shares to borrow.
     
  10. SkyDog58

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    Yawn.
     
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  11. Bill Jennings

    Bill Jennings Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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  12. Dav8or

    Dav8or Final Approach

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    I have a truck too, well actually a Ford E-350 van that I use for towing, camping and crap hauling. The key is the right tool for the job. I also have a Chevy Bolt EV that I do about 90% of my driving in and I never charge at a public charger. I can't afford a Tesla either. My Bolt cost me under $30,000 in the end, so still expensive for a car for me, but within reach.

    The thing is, so many people won't consider an EV because they expect it to be an exact drop in replacement for the vehicle they're driving now. For some people they are, but most not. But if you look at them as a second car, they make a tremendous amount of sense. Besides all the money stuff, electric cars are just plain fun. Trust me, once you start driving electric, all your other vehicles start becoming less appealing to drive.
     
  13. RJM62

    RJM62 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I think they'd all do themselves a favor by settling on a universal high-rate charging protocol, or at least a universal connector that can sense the ideal charging current for different batteries. Last time I checked there were three competing connectors and even more charging protocols. It would also help Tesla. They could continue to charge their owners' cars for free, but charge (as in money) to fast-charge (as in power) any EV, regardless of manufacturer.

    Rich
     
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  14. CC268

    CC268 Final Approach

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    I suppose if I was in the market for a vehicle it would be a consideration...but I have no truck payment now and certainly don't want to go spend 30K just to have an electric vehicle. 30K can buy a lot of gas. Maybe in 5-10 years there will be an EV F150 lol.
     
  15. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    A little more pricey, but here you go.
    http://workhorse.com/pickup/

    Tim
     
  16. CC268

    CC268 Final Approach

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    Interesting...looks somewhat like a Honda Ridgeline
     
  17. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Here is where the gross profit (and the 700M net loss comes from).
    upload_2018-5-23_12-36-1.png

    Looking at gross profit
    If you look at total automotive revenue ($2.735b)/ total automotive cost of revenues ($2.195b) = gross profit% of 24%
    Company overall of revenues ($3.4b) / cost of revenues ($2.9b) = overall gross profit% of 15%

    It drops overall because service runs at a small loss right now (the far majority of vehicles are still under warranty - this will change over time), and the solar business & energy storage margins are tiny right now.

    Net Loss
    Anyway, so with all the profit, where do the losses come from then?

    Take the $456m gross profit, and deduct:

    $367m for R&D -> this is R&D on the Model Y and Tesla Truck. Not proportional to numbers of existing models they sell
    $150m for for interest expenses -> Sins of the past. Not proportional to numbers of cars they sell.
    $686m from general sales & admin -> See below

    That gives the $784m net loss.

    Sales & admin
    Of course I 100% expect you'll come back saying if they don't spend the sales & admin money they won't sell any cars. That's true - some of that is showroom expenses which are proportional to vehicles sold - the rest are fixed.

    Compared to 12 months ago, Tesla's quarterly revenue is up $712m while the sales & admin expenses increased by $83m. That's 12% - so let's attribute 12% of sales & admin expenses as being directly proportional to vehicle sales. That's 12% of $686m, which is $80m. It would be nice decreasing the other $600m fixed expenses as well, but neither selling fewer or more vehicles would make any difference in this.

    I'll throw in another one. Not shown above, but $50m of vehicle revenue came from ZEV credits, which shouldn't exist in the first place and are meaningless in the long run. Add $50m to the $80m proportional sales & admin expense, and subtract $130 from the vehicle revenues.

    Vehicle profit
    With the $130m of soft expenses, it means vehicle revenue goes down to $2.6b at direct expenses of $2.2b. Even with all proportional cost attributed to vehicles included in there, they are still making ~18% profit on vehicles.

    So when someone says "Tesla is losing $13k on every vehicle sold", it is utter B/S. The more vehicles they sell the more money they get - which by definition is gross profit. Simple as that.

    There is only one thing they need to do to actually be net profitable as well: Sell more vehicles. Which at this point means make more vehicles. Tesla still has to prove that they can actually do that of course.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2018
  18. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    TSLA has been on and off the most shorted stock (by percentage of float) on any American exchange since 2013.

    What is WSJ going to report on next - the iPhone 5S ?

    And there were much higher share shortages back in 2013 (in March 2013, if you loaned out your TSLA shares to be shorted you were paid 60% annualized interest! It only lasted a few weeks though).
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2018
  19. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    Good stuff. I would argue that “make more vehicles” assumes in the above that they don’t need more plants and capital expenditures to do that, or the expense numbers climb and “making more vehicles” doesn’t quite work.

    I always get leery of the “we will make it up in volume” claims of anyone, not just Tesla.
     
  20. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    Any truck you can order as front wheel drive only, isn’t a truck. :)
     
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  21. Velocity173

    Velocity173 Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    ADB6F88F-5F49-41F7-935C-76F7DE6ADF01.jpeg

    Typical airport and back Volt trip for me. 92MPG.
     
  22. CC268

    CC268 Final Approach

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  23. CC268

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    Huh? Ridgeline is AWD
     
  24. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    Ours sure is. I think they all are. It was a requirement when we were shopping (used).

    I assumed he was referring to the linked electric truck, but I checked and that one is AWD as well.
     
  25. CC268

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    Yea I’m not sure what he is referring to. My dad has a Ridgeline. Not a truck I would purchase personally, but like you said...they are all AWD. I believe the new ones it is optional?
     
  26. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    Learn something every day!

    Just went to the Honda website and the base “RT” model is FWD-only, and on the “Sport” and “RTL” models AWD is optional.

    So we were wrong and he was right. Confession is good for the soul!
     
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  27. CC268

    CC268 Final Approach

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    Yes although that is new for this year (or might have started when they came out with the new body style). Before that you are correct that they were all AWD.

    A FWD truck...interesting
     
  28. deonb

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    The NUMMI plant that Tesla bought back in 2010 made 500'000 vehicles per year when Toyota and GM shared it. No reason Tesla can't reach that either before needing another plant.

    Of course, they have an additional manufacturing problem of also needing batteries, but they have the gigafactory for that is currently sized to produce 460'000 packs a year, and the building is large enough to expand to 2 million packs a year.

    So they're not going to need more plants for now. They might need more equipment - who knows. But for that kind of stuff they can easily raise capital if needed. What's a few billion dollars between friends?

    The game is really Tesla's to lose at this point.
     
  29. Velocity173

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    Just watched “Who Killed The Electric Car.” Tesla is doomed! :D
     
  30. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    Interesting is not the word I would use. :)
     
  31. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    Didn’t GM and Toyota have significant robotics installed there prior to leaving? Did Tesla buy those assets?
     
  32. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    They sold all of that equipment via auction. Tesla bought a bunch of it. Not sure what percentage.
     
  33. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    That 2.6B in sales is mostly Model S and X I would assume. Since 3 just started shipping. Therefore there is no way to know yet if Tesla will win or lose as they make more cars.

    Sent from my LG-TP260 using Tapatalk
     
  34. Dav8or

    Dav8or Final Approach

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    Well, Honda correctly identified that a whole lot of "truck" buyers aren't using them as trucks. They are more commuter cars in the form factor of a truck. Since the Ridgeline is based on the Pilot, why not offer FWD only and save the buyer some bucks?

    Way back in the '80s, Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Isuzu, Ford, GMC and Chevy used to offer true "mini pickups". In those days they were really cheap and many people bought them simply because they were one of the cheapest new vehicles one could buy then. These were basically 1/4 ton trucks, but they were RWD and people just used them as two seat cars with a huge trunk with no lid.

    Perhaps Honda is trying to tap back into this idea??
     
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  35. RJM62

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    Runs on the same batteries as my vapes.

    Seriously.

    Rich
     
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  36. CC268

    CC268 Final Approach

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    Yep that’s exactly why my dad bought one. It’s a “truck” that drives and handles like a car/SUV.
     
  37. deonb

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    Correct. The sales right now is mostly X and S. Tesla has announced aiming for a 20% gross margin for the Model 3.

    Can they achieve that? Nobody know at this point.

    In the beginning of the Model S productions Tesla announced they were aiming for 25% gross margins on a Model S and everybody laughed at them (articles saying how ridiculous this is since those margins at higher than Porsche). But they reached that 3 quarters later. So I wouldn’t bet against them being able to do that. Probably would be a safe bet that it won’t be as quick as Elon says it will happen though - but it’ll probably get there.
     
  38. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    @deonb

    Article from six months ago on GM:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ise-of-profitable-electric-cars-idUSKBN1DF272

    In the article, they said by 2021 GM expects the per kWH price to be below $100 by 2021. I recall Tesla saying they will be below $100 kWH by 2019, and some speculating they are already there with the Giga factory. Any current data?
    The battery seems to be the largest price component, and therefore is a large determining factor if the car is profitable or not.

    Tim
     
  39. deonb

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    Obviously hard to say for sure with Tesla, since they don't publish that.

    But the last public SWAG was $124/kWh for cars at the pack level in Feb 2017. (Using previously published $190/kWh and later-published "35% savings at the Gigafactory").

    A newer indication from Nov 2017 is the Semi's price difference between the 2 published models:

    a) 300 mile range version for $150k
    b) 500 mile range version for $180k

    So $30k buys you 200 extra miles. The stated energy consumption of the Semi is 2kWh/mile, which means $30k buys you 400/kWh extra.

    Which is $75/kWh retail... Of course this isn't being sold yet - it's effectively a 2021 price estimate.

    Finally, the current Tesla retail price for replacement packs on the Model S is $140/kWh. If you go by the massive markup Tesla generally has on replacement parts, their manufacturing cost would be $14/kWh... just kidding. But it effectively places the maximum possible cost at $140.

    I seriously doubt they've broken $100 though. I think Elon would have had an “I told you so” moment if that happened.
     
  40. Dav8or

    Dav8or Final Approach

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    I personally believe that the price and performance of both the Semi and Roadster 2 are entirely predicated on the estimated price and performance of battery technology by 2020, or 2022 or so. Basically gambling on an educated guess. In the meanwhile, show off some neat looking prototypes and collect deposit money. This strategy works for Elon only. I don't think any other company in the world could get away with it.
     
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