Tesla Trolling

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by denverpilot, May 20, 2018.

  1. paflyer

    paflyer Final Approach

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    To their detriment, and they have the national legislative seats and market power to impose their idiocy on the rest of the country.
     
  2. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    If you A/C runs 24x7 then it is undersized and likely not able to keep up with the higher temps. When the temp is 105 with the sun shinning. the house has to disipate significantly more heat then when the temp is in the 80s at night.

    Tim
     
  3. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Yeah, I do not keep/maintain a spare car to drop it off one day and get it the next. I also did not have the time to deal with it, or wait for the mechanic to fix it each time.

    Now, sure. My wife and I carpool about three days a week, I also only do 20 miles round trip, it is easy to schedule. Back when I lived in the DC area with my wife and I going in separate directions and having a one plus hour commute in traffic (only 27 miles); reliability is king.

    Tim
     
  4. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    How long did a swap take to complete?

    How much did it cost?

    I'd be reluctant to pay to swap out what is probably the most valuable piece of equipment on my car, with one of unknown quality or treatment.
     
  5. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Me too, but even when you run an AC 24/7, when it runs at night it draws significantly less power than if it runs during the day. The cycles are much shorter. By definition it has to be - if it has to pull 100% cycles to keep up at night, it wouldn't work at all during the day.

    You were talking about the grid though, which by nature is an 'on average' thing. It's not relevant if you have 4 cars, or a natural gas oven, unless you live in a pocket of people where everybody have that. (Even then, just having 4 cars doesn't mean you now drive 60'000 miles/year suddenly).

    What does parking on the street have to do with the grid?
     
  6. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    I'm guessing you guys don't live in florida.
     
  7. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    I have acolytes! Who knew?! LOL.

    Almost nobody said that back then, by the way. The society was mostly agrarian and broke coming out of the Great Depression, mostly.

    Similar thoughts here. They need to make a GOOD AWD version of something as a plug-in hybrid first though. Roads are still dirt out here and none of these roller skate cars have the suspension to survive years of pounding on washboards.

    LOL. He’s an ADD poster child.

    Reaction to Tesla or just reasonable uses of electric tech? Tesla is probably going to become a boutique car maker. Electric tech has some useful applications but it’s not the fix for a majority of problems automakers attempt to fix for people. It does fix some. Especially for those living in overcrowded urban hell holes.

    Shooting space junk into deep space holds little interest for me. Turning it into a car commercial even less so. But he needed a weight to put at the top of his rocket that he could blow up with a launch failure and Lloyd’s of London wouldn’t have to pay out on. So he used one of his first unprofitable cars.

    Nope. No Internet forums. ;)

    But the real story was literally my grandfather’s. Farm kid. Bought first Model T used and broken. Replaced lower bearings with leather (!) and told anyone driving it not to push it too hard or they’d blow the engine right out of the thing. Someone eventually did. Nobody had money for fancy stuff like metal engine bearings. :)

    Henry Ford’s real legacy. Cheap debt for the masses. He bankrolled it. Numerous powerful bankers and political lobbyists of the day were so jealous that he came up with it, they tried to get Congress to take his company from him. Said his lack of formal business training and education were a threat to the country.

    Sound familiar in this thread?

    Interestingly this entwined Henry Ford in telecommunications history. When asked by Congresscritters who made him come before Congress and explain why he should keep his own company... how he would run it without said “proper” education, the short version is, he said he’d installed a massive multi-line phone system in his office and he would call any expert on any topic he needed by simply picking up the phone.

    The power brokers of the day were mighty annoyed that he was practical. They were really annoyed he made a profit.

    Pretending Musk is Ford is laughable.

    I wonder if Kent @flyingcheesehead is still a buyer at $78,000. Ouch. Quite a bait and switch.

    That’s more than a loaded Heavy Duty diesel pickup truck and those are heavily milked for profit margin.

    Anyway, looks like Musk is setting up his narrative... the big auto makers killed him. Of course. It won’t play as well with Ford completely exiting his market space though. Ha. He’ll have to blame Korea.

    Which tech is that? None of the tech for EVs has changed in well over a decade in batteries and that’s where their major problem lies. Toyota has been making the Prius for a “relatively” long time now.

    Tesla came up with ways to manage and build a massive lithium pack, but none of it in the electronics world was particularly new. It’s standard 90s vintage tech driven (pun intended) by a false “green” movement.

    It’s not an uncertainty. It’s a well known fact that these batteries die. It’s in the data sheet for the individual cells.

    I pay cash. I even paid REAL cash and not electronic cash for the Dodge, mostly as a joke when the former owner said he wanted “$20s in unmarked bills”. He got $100s.

    The Lincoln was a loan for three months. Did it so the poor sales guy got more commission. They wanted to sell it through Ford finance and Ford had a minimum pay off time for the small dealership to get their kickback. So we paid it off three months after buying it. Pretty sad that when the paperwork was slow the “threat” was that we’d write a check if they’d didn’t hurry up. LOL.

    It helped that a storage facility across from the dealership literally blew up. Gave us something to do while we waited on the mountain of paperwork to get the “loan”.

    It makes me actually pay attention to what I’m spending and why. Also forces a real budget.

    No not really. In salty climates the vehicle will rust out from under you no matter how good your maintenance is. Not that I haven’t owned a van that I could see the road going by through the floorboards, but there’s limits to your assertion that a vehicle should last for “life”. 15 years, maybe 20 in those conditions. Longer here since we have little water.

    There’s also the depreciation problem, spending more on a repair than the vehicle is worth is dumb unless there’s a specific reason to do so.

    Owning an 18 year old Subaru, the problem with all of them is head and valve cover gaskets. There’s also a mandatory timing belt replacement cycle and they’re interference engines, so you don’t do that one “on condition” unless you like replacing engines.

    My mechanic is on the way to work. If the vehicle is driveable I just drop it off and he hands me the keys to a first gen Honda CRV that has almost 300,000 miles on it and has been his loaner for ten years. If he can’t get your vehicle done by the end of the day, he doesn’t care if you drive the CRV to the boonies and back. Runs great.
     
  8. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    LOL. Don’t you know you’re supposed to be in a proper ticky-tacky suburban home with multiple car garage complete with your own chargers installed in both bays? Get with the program man, you’re the reason America is dying! LOL. :)

    Just think, the chargers will have to be smart about it when there’s his and hers EVs in the garage — or you’ll need more than 200A service for your suburban dream house so you can run the dishwasher and the laundry while both cars are charging. Heh. Maybe do a little welding in the shop.

    My previous suburban house only had 150A service and a garage so small that cars wouldn’t fit in it so it had a garage added in the back yard down a long side driveway that wouldn’t comfortably hold two cars.

    If it snowed you’d spend a lot of time snowblowing to get a single EV back to that garage/workshop. Two wouldn’t fit.

    Maybe I’d go out at 1AM and swap the EVs so the other one could charge up? LOL. No. Eff that.

    My vehicle “fleet” is now four vehicles (finally “sold” the radio van to someone else in the radio club for $1 since it was a “donation” to them anyway) and two of them sit parked outside all the time at the current rural house. The tractor also sometimes is in, sometimes is out.

    Oh, and my oven is propane. :) (Along with the forced air heat, and water heater. With a pellet stove as backup for the heat. We do have regular power outages in blizzards. But that’s okay for an EV. None of them could get to the county road in those conditions anyway.)
     
  9. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    @denverpilot

    Me too, paid cash for the last three cars. Each time, got a better deal if willing to finance for a couple of months. Ranged between two and four months before I could pay it off.

    Tim
     
  10. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    90 seconds. It's actually kind'a cool to see in action:
    https://www.tesla.com/videos/battery-swap-event

    They basically tied it to the equivalent cost of gas for an equivalent car. So whatever ~10 gallons of gasoline cost at the time in California I suppose. ($40?).

    Keep in mind that if you didn't swap, you most likely would have stopped and paid for food and coffee at the stop, which would have been more than that. And considering this was on $100k vehicles, I seriously doubt cost sensitivity had anything to do with it failing. Tesla charged just enough to weed out people who wanted to use it just for the heck of it, to see if any people remaining find value in it.

    Yes, it was definitely a big concern that people didn't want to leave a $12'000 battery for an unknown one. For the specific swapper that was tested though, you had to swap back to your original battery within something like a month.

    So I don't think the system would have worked on a larger scale with multiple stops and asymmetrical routes, but even in the most ideal case where you essentially had people who weren't cost-sensitive, driving the same 400 mile stretch back and could easily swap the pack back, the experiment didn't work.
     
  11. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    The dealerships really sell cars, which they make almost nothing on, extended warranties which are usually a bad idea for the buyer, financing which they get a cut on, and maintenance which they’re almost always much more expensive to use than a good private mechanic who doesn’t have to maintain a fleet of nice new loaners and a lounge with free foo-foo frapachino coffee makers.

    You can usually tell by how grandiose the lobby is, how much they have to pay out on their building, that’ll be coming directly from your pocket.

    The latest thing here is all the dealers have installed awnings over all the cars so the poor suburban dears don’t have to stand in the sun to look at them. I suspect it was driven by a number of hailstorms that wiped out entire dealer lots, but they’re sure milking it as a way to provide “comfort” while car shopping. Haha.

    I don’t have time for that crap. I pick the vehicle before I get there, call to make sure it’s really on the lot, and the point of going there is to inspect it. Not shop like I’m at a freaking mall. (Which I also avoid. My god, the consumerism. We know people who spend every other weekend at malls. I always wonder what the hell they’re buying.)
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2018
  12. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Uh, no kidding. No wonder it failed.
     
  13. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator En-Route PoA Supporter

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    I personally wouldn't mind driving an EV for my ~40mi round trip daily commute. However, I want something that looks like the Tesla S/Karma and not like a Leaf/Bolt/i3. I don't need it to compete with an Audi R8 or BMW 7-series for interior/fit-n-finish. Something akin to an EV-Nissan Maxima would be fine. I'll keep a ICE truck on-hand for towing and an ICE mid-size SUV for the wife to daily drive and take on longer trips. The EV need only be a DD, and range can stay in the ~200mi area.
     
  14. DaleB

    DaleB En-Route

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    Not that old is right. If you were old you'd remember TWO data cables. You kids...
     
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  15. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Something that Tesla said over 2 years ago that they would do (make a performance version of the 3), and Tesla selling cars like they always have (higher value cars first until production can keep up with demand), is hardly a bait and switch.

    If you have an order for 100'000 of high-margin items that will take you a year to fill, would you instead switch your assembly line to manufacture low-margin items instead? (Considering the low-margin and high-margin items take essentially the same time and resources to make). That would be beyond stupid. Gross mismanagement even.


    That's not true. The cells that go into the Model 3 today has 80% higher energy density than the Roadsters from 10 years ago. The price also dropped from around $1000/kWh to $180/kWh.
     
  16. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    One might say that about producing the losing low-margin item in the first place, might one not?
     
  17. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    By that logic the only car ever manufactured would be the Bugatti Veyron. However, when you want to go after volume, you need lower price items as well.
     
  18. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    You're contradicting yourself. You just said they both take the same time to build, so you're not getting more volume by building the cheaper one.
     
  19. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Yes, but they actually HAVE the orders in hand to build 100'000+ high-margin cars. If they had an order to build 100'000 Bugatti Veyrons equivalents at $3.5m each, they should absolutely build those instead.

    But at some point they're going to run out of high-margin orders though. Or maybe not. Maybe even if they make 500'000 cars per year, it will still all be $50k+ cars and they still can't keep up. If that's the case, I'd be very, very happy with my investment.

    Somehow I don't think it will happen though. And I don't think you do either.

    They're going to need to make $35k cars in the future to be able to have high enough demand. Just... no need to do it quite yet.
     
  20. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    That’s not new tech. That’s packaging and ramp up of plants to make them.

    Battery chemistry hasn’t changed.
     
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  21. EppyGA

    EppyGA Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I wonder a bit about the resale market. Would most folks keep one until the battery pack has seen better days? Then what? Who's going to pay for the new battery pack? If someone goes to trade one in is there a way for the dealer to judge remaining battery life and adjust trade-in value based on that?

    My son had a Kia Soul that his wife drove as a daily driver. When the lease was up he didn't want to keep it and bought a Bolt.
     
  22. James331

    James331 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I don't drive my nice stuff in the salt, and by the way talk about a scam salting roads in the first place vs just sanding, but by doing through a good drive through wash with underspray once or twice a week, so far not real rust.

    The biggest issue in the east is its not a car culture and people don't care about their cars like out west.


    How is that any different than waiting for warranty work or a recall on a new car?
     
  23. Bill Jennings

    Bill Jennings Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Yet they’re shocked that you can afford a plane!
     
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  24. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    On the Prius front anyway, since they’ve been around longer, there’s replacements for the packs that run about $3000 plus labor through Toyota and quite a bit cheaper if you go third party or even have the ability to assemble your own.

    You just factor it into the sales price like any other depreciable item, just like hours on an airplane engine. At some point it’s not worth putting $3000 into a vehicle worth less than $3000.

    There’s also, not kidding, a modding community slowly starting up around the old Priuses and people are hot rodding (hot volting?) them with third party components. They’re so light, making them have more power to the wheels is utterly hilarious.

    Torque steer, anyone? In a Prius? LOL.
     
  25. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Packaging and ramp-up can bring cost down, not energy density up.

    Sure, it's all NCA, and Tesla's chemistry is fairly secret so hard to know what's going on, but I know of at least two changes - the Model S 90 added silicon anodes in 2015, and the Model 3 dropped cobalt % significantly in 2017.

    I'm not sure what they did between the Roadster and Model S in 2012 but they managed to get 40% more power in an identical form factor cell (an 18650 cell). Hard to believe it wasn't some sort of chemistry change.
     
  26. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    Yeah. That. LOL.

    And I only own half of a plane. I could probably own a whole plane but that’d be wasteful.

    Technically I own half of an LLC that owns a plane. And a third of a hangar. :)
     
  27. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    They didn’t use more cells? I’ll state flatly that I don’t go looking for Tesla articles (not even the video that started this thread, I watch those guys for their truck coverage) but everything I’ve read they mostly just added cells and made packs bigger.

    If they figured out some chemical magic, as someone else and you have pointed out, their secrecy and patents aren’t helping save the planet like their proponents think they’re doing.

    They’re just making more obstacles to other engineers who could take their work and expand on it.

    At one time @flyingcheesehead said here long ago that they were sharing all that tech. If sharing means licensing, I know that game. That’s how we would mess with competitors in telecom. “Here’s a free codec if you sign up for our free licensing...” so then we’d be able to list all the users and get ITU to call it a “standard” before our competitor got theirs approved. Hahahaha.

    No, I had no say in those corporate reindeer games. That was the Israel office where literally the competition’s coders sat in a building right across the street. Israeli engineering companies love to screw with each other. Most modern telecom codecs and chip designs come from Israel. Not California as many Americans believe.
     
  28. Axtel4

    Axtel4 Pre-takeoff checklist

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  29. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    LOL.

    I love the Baghdad Bob style response from their PR person about the braking test and then the follow up paragraph about how CR has been doing braking tests for decades and exactly how they control the variables.

    And then the little dig of a quote from the Car and Driver editor.

    The follow up was, of course, “We’ll upload some more code to the car.”

    Ugh. Modern software engineers suck. We need to take away their Internet connectivity to their broken products for a year so they can feel the heat of angry customers for much longer like mistakes did to us back in the day.

    “No, you can’t push a code update to it for a year. Code the important stuff like braking first and THINK about it harder.”

    Continuous updates aren’t a feature. They’re a sign you can’t code.
     
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  30. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    It's hard to know how long a Tesla battery will last. The best indication so far is the Tesloop car (a daily taxi service from LA to Vegas) which had a battery at 200'000 miles at 6% degradation before Tesla replaced it since the range estimates went all haywire.

    After replacing Tesla found out that it was a software error that was not compensating for the chemistry state of the 200k mile battery, so it's quite possible that it would have still been useful. Tesla has a simulated 500'000 mile battery in the lab that still has 80% of capacity.

    If that's the case there is no conceivable scenario where it's useful to replace the battery. At 500k miles the rest of your car will be worth less than the labor to replace the battery.


    A lot of "measurements" you see from people you have to take with a grain of salt to the point of it being almost meaningless. It's very very hard to measure battery pack capacity accurately. You have to fully charge it and fully discharge it (by driving it) a bunch of times in a row to get the range estimator calibrated again. It can easily be off by 5% otherwise. When selling and trading, new buyers always want to see what the "fully charged range" is, but the number is almost meaningless when you're talking about a couple of percentage points. This is why the Tesloop number is more of an indicator, since they do that pretty much daily.

    My Model S is now reporting a 3% loss (after 5 years). 2 years ago it reported 5% loss for a while. Grain of salt.
     
  31. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    That seems absurd on its face.

    Care to elaborate?
     
  32. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    No, not just add more cells. They changed the individual cells as well:
    • The original Roadster cells were 2200 mah, 3.7v and weighed 44g each.
    • The original Model S cells were 3100 mah, 3.6V and weighed 44.5g each.
    • The 2015 updated Model S cells are 3400 mah, 3.6V and weighs 46g each.
    All the of those are 18650 cells. (18mm x 65mm).

    The Model 3 cells are 5175 mah, but it's a different form factor as well - 21700 (21mm x 70mm). If you theoretically scale it down proportionally to a 18650 they would be 4118 mah each.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2018
  33. EppyGA

    EppyGA Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Thanks for the info.
     
  34. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    It comes from the tech companies (amazon, google, Facebook, Netflix) new mantra “fail fast”. It works great for shopping carts, social media sites, and watching movies, but for real time car control (or moving money like I do) it’s a pretty terrible way to do things. But our leadership latches on to the buzz word and expects us to deliver like Facebook does. Trust me, you don’t want me delivering features in my system like Facebook does.
     
  35. X3 Skier

    X3 Skier En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Basically means you can’t ever get it right the first thru n times. Continuous updating to fix errors that should have never been released is Pi** Poor Coding.

    Cheers
     
  36. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    In fourteen years of Subaru ownership, I can recall no warranty that was not done on a regular maintenance schedule. And back in the DC area, it was a major pain in logistics to schedule maintenance, often managed to get it done on Saturdays.
    Now for the Mercedes, I am not going to even try and recall how many recalls they had.

    Lastly, the warranty work and regular maintenance is not unscheduled. It was when other stuff gets to be a hassle that I get rid of the car.

    Tim
     
  37. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    No chemistry changes from published information. Manufacturing changes, mostly around the electrolyte tolerances and internal shielding. This has had two effects: 1. lower manufacturing costs by reducing material, and second increasing batter energy density.

    Tim
     
  38. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    That seems to expect perfection on version 1, or even version 1+n. And unchanging goals. Just seems unreasonable in the real world.
     
  39. zaitcev

    zaitcev En-Route

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    Pete Zaitcev
    I don't think it is a question faith, or at least not necessarily. Elon Musk made an argument, which can be boiled down to: every other energy storage or transfer agent incurs significant inefficiencies (more significant than the 30% that are required for the electric grid to function). If you review the numbers, look at various EROI calculations, and agree, then electric cars are inevitable and hydrogen is a hoax (to borrow from Robert Zubrin). If you do not review the numbers, you have to rely on faith, of course.
     
  40. zaitcev

    zaitcev En-Route

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    Of course. Many smart people realize that all cars will not be electric under a foreseeable horizon, such as 100 years. Maybe just 90% or 95%. And that's just in CONUS. Worldwide - 15% electric at best. Although, of course, the world will catch up asymptotically to that 90..95%.