Sub lost contact over Titanic

Now i'm going to put my tinfoil cap on and say that's it's pretty coincidental that they all of a sudden found the debris about the time that their oxygen would run out. I would think that that area would have been the first to be searched. Makes me think that the US probably already knew but didn't want to give up any trade secrets so had them wait.
 
I’m starting to wonder why the Navy said anything? The crew and pax were already dead, the sub was crushed, and the search was already going on in the area of last contact. It took days to get a remote camera down there, and that wouldn’t have changed. The only difference would be the families would know they weren’t trapped, cold, and dying slowly.
 
francisco collazos said:
Now i'm going to put my tinfoil cap on and say that's it's pretty coincidental that they all of a sudden found the debris about the time that their oxygen would run out. I would think that that area would have been the first to be searched.
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It was the first place they searched, it just took that long to get the deep diving ROV on location.
 
Matthew said:
I’m starting to wonder why the Navy said anything? The crew and pax were already dead, the sub was crushed, and the search was already going on in the area of last contact. It took days to get a remote camera down there, and that wouldn’t have changed. The only difference would be the families would know they weren’t trapped, cold, and dying slowly.
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Public outrage and media coverage.

The same reason the USAF shot down a balloon earlier this year.
 
In the declassified Scorpion report, they recorded the individual internal tanks imploding. It means a little more to me because my first boat was of the same class, but some of those tanks were on the same scale as this.

regardless, this capability was declassified long ago or the IC would have not been told.
 
Many years ago I was the only Marine on a Navy WV, An airborne electronic listening post. With life vest and parachute on I stood in the open door with a small depth bomb in hand.
Upon a signal I tossed it out the door.
Since out location and the time of release were known, The Navy could calibrate their listening devices. Our location was somewhere near Christmas Island. This was around 1960 or so.
I can guess how much better their listening devices must be today.
https://www.history.navy.mil/conten...lections/aircraft/e/ec-121-warning-star0.html
 
You have to be very careful what you reveal as "news". In this instance, maybe the military did not want to reveal the technology that they have at their disposal..or some other reason.
 
From WSJ today:

In the foreword to Walter Lord’s great Titanic history, “A Night to Remember,” published in 1955, the first thing he notes is that in 1898 a struggling writer named Morgan Robertson wrote a novel about a fabulous Atlantic Ocean liner carrying wealthy, self-satisfied people that went down one cold April night after hitting an iceberg. “The [Titanic] was 66,000 tons displacement; Robertson’s [liner] was 70,000. The real ship was 882.5 feet long; the fictional one was 800.” Both vessels could carry some 3,000 people, both could make 24 to 25 knots, and both carried only a fraction of the lifeboats needed if something bad happened. But little matter, because both were called “unsinkable.”

What did Robertson call his ship? The Titan.
 
midwestpa24 said:
I will argue though, did they really understand the risk? I've done lots of activities that require waivers...had to sign one once to rent a golf cart. But were the passengers in this case really aware of how this operation was truly run? Sounds like a lot of concerns were raised in the past, and promptly buried. Did any of them have the knowledge of underwater operations to spot the real dangers.

Was there the pressure to go, because the money was already spent? Have you ever been in a situation where your gut told you something was off, but you pressed ahead anyway due to some external pressure?
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This! I've been thinking about that a lot during the course of this. It's a lot like the sunk cost fallacy. "Well, we're this far into it, let's see it through..." It's a lot easier to continue on the current course than it is to pull the plug.

Dave Theisen said:
Which makes me wonder if the “US not letting” the other group that wanted to help was more of “don’t bother”.
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"We need a C-17 right away so that we can transport our rescue vessel to the scene ASAP!"

"Uhhh, yeah, no you don't."
 
flyingcheesehead said:
This! I've been thinking about that a lot during the course of this. It's a lot like the sunk cost fallacy. "Well, we're this far into it, let's see it through..." It's a lot easier to continue on the current course than it is to pull the plug.



"We need a C-17 right away so that we can transport our rescue vessel to the scene ASAP!"

"Uhhh, yeah, no you don't."
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Good practice to see how fast they can mobilize equipment with not officially calling it a test?? They never did put in on a ship. Just moved it.
 
I don't think it was theater. The US Navy calls the Canadian Navy up on the phone, and says, just for fun: "Hey, you guys still run P-3's, right? We got rid of them, as you know, and these new things just don't work as well. Could you give us a hand?"* We did a real search because nobody was positive enough to walk away from it, with a chance that they could have been alive, on the basis of a 'bang' noise. If they'd released the info sooner, there would be a continuous argument over whether or not the search was pointless.

The only reason to release the info would be to save the cost of the search, if they were 100% certain it imploded. That's a big risk. Who wants to be the one that makes that call, then 20 years later we find out they were really alive at the bottom, writing notes to their loved ones until they ran out of air. See the Kursk disaster for an example of that...that was horrible.

So we did a gigantic search for 4 days? No one hurt, everyone gets a bunch of practice working together, great training exercise. And maybe a better reminder to people that homemade submersibles may be a bad idea.

*I may work with a guy who was former P-3 crew.
 
Interesting if authentic.

OceanGate CEO Stockton Rush email exchange with Submersible Operations Expert (Rob McCallum)

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bflynn said:
In the declassified Scorpion report, they recorded the individual internal tanks imploding. It means a little more to me because my first boat was of the same class, but some of those tanks were on the same scale as this.

regardless, this capability was declassified long ago or the IC would have not been told.
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As you know, the SOSUS program began in the 1950s. I imagine its successor is quite capable today, and triangulation abilities probably pinpointed the grave.
 
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Matthew said:
I’m starting to wonder why the Navy said anything? The crew and pax were already dead, the sub was crushed, and the search was already going on in the area of last contact. It took days to get a remote camera down there, and that wouldn’t have changed. The only difference would be the families would know they weren’t trapped, cold, and dying slowly.
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I see it as a balancing act.

On one side, we don't want them to know we know as much as we do, but on the other hand, they know we have some capability, so we have to say something or else they'll accuse us of not using what they know we have. This would be either in the vein of "The Navy is incompetent" or "The Navy is suppressing the truth". So, you play it right and say something.

I'm not sure the "Oh, we waited a few days to tell you" part was supposed to come out though.
 
3393RP said:
As you know, the SOSUS program began in the 1950s. I imagine its successor is quite capable today, and triangulation abilities probably pinpointed the grave.
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Noise can do funny things underwater. Perhaps with enough data on local temperature and salinity differences it would be possible to correct that to pinpoint, but I would bet we don't have that kind of capability just because of the physics of the sound transmission.
 
Daleandee said:
James Cameron believes the crew had some warning of the imminent failure of the vessel noting that they had dropped their weights and were attempting to ascend. How much time they had between knowing something was wrong and entering into eternity is believed to have been brief ...

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/23/1183975136/james-cameron-titanic-titan-sub
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I heard him say that during the ABC News post USCG interview. He didn't say what this was based on, whether it was a rumored comm from the vessel or observation of evidence on the sea bed. He did say any safety protocol based on sensors detecting cracking at that depth was a fools errand. Hard to argue with that.
 
3393RP said:
As you know, the SOSUS program began in the 1950s. I imagine its successor is quite capable today, and triangulation abilities probably pinpointed the grave.
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In many cities, "Shot Spotter" is used; essentially the same thing. Hear a "signature" sound on several receivers, and triangulate to locate the source.
 
I found the information in this article intriguing. I have no idea of it's accuracy:

"The air inside a sub has a fairly high concentration of hydrocarbon vapours. When the hull collapses, the air auto-ignites and an explosion follows the initial rapid implosion, Mr Corley says. Human bodies incinerate and are turned to ash and dust instantly."

Much more here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65934887
 
The diagram in the still of that video is apparently of a cross section of the joint between a machined titanium ring at each end of the main body of the sub, which was wound carbon fiber tube. From the video, the kind of hemispherical ends then bolted to the titanium ring. So the main body was basically just a simple carbon fiber tube.

I've worked with carbon fiber on a very small scale before, and it adds great strength in tension. Depending on the fiber orientation, the strength calculations are pretty simple. In my simple engineering background, I never ran into suggestions of using carbon fiber or other reinforced composite in compression. I can see the carbon fiber adding strength to the tube for lifting and supporting the sub, but fail to see how it makes it any stronger than the binder in compression at depth. Am I missing something?

The other thing pointed out was the joint. Again, my simple background, I can't see the dimensions of the ring AND the tube changing at depth, and I don't think they'd be the same. The stress/strain curves of metals and composites are not similar in my experience. So that glue or epoxy or whatever would seem more like a gasket than an adhesive. Juan pointed that out in the video as well.

I guess I'm restating the obvious, seems like a questionable design at best.
 
It's not just the obvious poor strength relative to competitor materials in compression, composites also have really dodgy fatigue curve characteristics. Treasonous would be my word choice.

Spent one too many years during my stay at Purdue working on these things, my master's concentration was on fatigue and crack propagation in aircraft structures. When it comes to predictive fatigue and propagation behavior, composite is the typical american wife hitting her 40s. She's gonna wreck your life, you just can't tell when.... and frankly neither does she. :D
 
Daleandee said:
I found the information in this article intriguing. I have no idea of it's accuracy:

"The air inside a sub has a fairly high concentration of hydrocarbon vapours. When the hull collapses, the air auto-ignites and an explosion follows the initial rapid implosion, Mr Corley says. Human bodies incinerate and are turned to ash and dust instantly."

Much more here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65934887
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PV=NRT

It’s basic physics — think of it as a really big diesel engine cylinder, but with 6000 psi of compression, vs 300 to 500 psi.

Whether that’s enough energy to turn 900 pounds of meat bags that are 60% water into ash in milliseconds might be a stretch, but I haven’t done the math. It’s all being followed by lots of 33 degree water to cool things back down again.

PVnRT.jpg
 
hindsight2020 said:
When it comes to predictive fatigue and propagation behavior, composite is the typical american wife hitting her 40s. She's gonna wreck your life, you just can't tell when.... and frankly neither does she. :D
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That made me laugh out loud. My wife would tell you this applies at least as much to husbands, any I would have to agree with her.
 
ElPaso Pilot said:
PV=NRT

It’s basic physics — think of it as a really big diesel engine cylinder, but with 6000 psi of compression, vs 300 to 500 psi.

Whether that’s enough energy to turn 900 pounds of meat bags that are 60% water into ash in milliseconds might be a stretch, but I haven’t done the math.
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Assuming they maintained the surface pressure of roughly 15 psi inside the sub, 6000 psi would be a factor of 400. But since volume isn’t constant, you’d have to make some assumptions to apply the formula.

I’d say “squashed like a grape” would be happening right alongside any combustion.
 
azblackbird said:
No combustion... just squashed like a grape. Sub imploded in a few milliseconds. They never knew what hit them.
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If the reports of dropping ballast and attempting to resurface are true they probably did know something was coming.

I wonder how they really know that without some type of Communication to mothership right before the boom?
 
benyflyguy said:
If the reports of dropping ballast and attempting to resurface are true they probably did know something was coming.

I wonder how they really know that without some type of Communication to mothership right before the boom?
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"Cameron told ABC News that he believes the Titan's hull began to crack under pressure and that its inside sensors gave the passengers a warning to that effect."

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/23/1183975136/james-cameron-titanic-titan-sub

I bet the warning time was very short.

There was a photo on HBA that showed the way the monitoring screens were mounted to the inside of the tube by using what appeared to be round headed tapered screws right into the carbon fiber inside. Don't know how long they were but that seems a great place for a stress riser ...

Edit: here's that photo:

139743-001508c9a1dced33d2419879eff672e2.data
 
Doug Reid said:
You have to be very careful what you reveal as "news". In this instance, maybe the military did not want to reveal the technology that they have at their disposal..or some other reason.
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This has nothing to do with the military, it was the Coast Guard's choice to continue the search as if it was a rescue operation. The Navy passed the acoustic information immediately it sounds like.
 
Daleandee said:
"Cameron told ABC News that he believes the Titan's hull began to crack under pressure and that its inside sensors gave the passengers a warning to that effect."

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/23/1183975136/james-cameron-titanic-titan-sub

I bet the warning time was very short.

There was a photo on HBA that showed the way the monitoring screens were mounted to the inside of the tube by using what appeared to be round headed tapered screws right into the carbon fiber inside. Don't know how long they were but that seems a great place for a stress riser ...

Edit: here's that photo:

139743-001508c9a1dced33d2419879eff672e2.data
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I believe that's an inner lining inside the pressure vessel, because you can see what appear to be lights in the ceiling.
 
Daleandee said:
"Cameron told ABC News that he believes the Titan's hull began to crack under pressure and that its inside sensors gave the passengers a warning to that effect."

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/23/1183975136/james-cameron-titanic-titan-sub

I bet the warning time was very short.

There was a photo on HBA that showed the way the monitoring screens were mounted to the inside of the tube by using what appeared to be round headed tapered screws right into the carbon fiber inside. Don't know how long they were but that seems a great place for a stress riser ...

Edit: here's that photo:

139743-001508c9a1dced33d2419879eff672e2.data
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I’ll give him credit on that one. I believe it was lined with heated wall panels to keep the interior warm. That’s not the external carbon wrap.
TELEMMGLPICT000339947342_16872691952070_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpYZBLcwjiY4yYHCdB8Mk09HhMh81Y8GqX3ipA8YMo0k.jpeg
 
Daleandee said:
I found the information in this article intriguing. I have no idea of it's accuracy:

"The air inside a sub has a fairly high concentration of hydrocarbon vapours. When the hull collapses, the air auto-ignites and an explosion follows the initial rapid implosion, Mr Corley says. Human bodies incinerate and are turned to ash and dust instantly."

Much more here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65934887
Click to expand...

A couple of thoughts.

1) This is not your standard sub, I don't believe you're going to see a 'normal' concentration of any kind of gas. My understanding is that everything was external (and electric), so no way to get fuel or oil fumes into the pax compartment.

2) In a 'normal' metal tube implosion, I could see the air auto-igniting from the compression. Whether you die of crushing, compression or the heat would probably be a purely academic question.

3) However, this was not a metal tube, but a carbon fiber one. I doubt it just crumpled up like the soda can or rail car examples that are popular to use right now. I picture more of a cracking of an eggshell scenario. The problem WAS started due to implosion, but CF being as rigid as it is, it cracked spectacularly, so that local to the breach you would have had collapsed CF, but as it collapsed the material around it could not contort as metal would and instead shattered. Area behind the break would be mostly intact. So, I don't know that the crushing, compression, or heat would have been what happened here.

4) This is scant comfort to the occupants, though, as your body now has to deal w/ being suddenly exposed to the water at those pressures and depths. I still believe it was quick and painless, just not sure I'm going w/ the 'they experienced a normal metal sub experience death' idea
 
Daleandee said:
I found the information in this article intriguing. I have no idea of it's accuracy:

"The air inside a sub has a fairly high concentration of hydrocarbon vapours. When the hull collapses, the air auto-ignites and an explosion follows the initial rapid implosion, Mr Corley says. Human bodies incinerate and are turned to ash and dust instantly."

Much more here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65934887
Click to expand...

true of subs with hydraulics and diesel systems, including US nuclear boats. The titan submersible was electric and probably had fewer hydrocarbons that your house.

it’s an academic discussion. Flooding that intense will probably knock everyone unconscious and they will be underwater before the air reaches a combustion point. The air collapses to just a small segment of the space. Plus, it will be rather contained, although not completely, by the water pressure. Nobody that experiences it can confirm.

For a short time, I had nightmares about this until I realized I would never know.
 
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benyflyguy said:
If the reports of dropping ballast and attempting to resurface are true they probably did know something was coming.

I wonder how they really know that without some type of Communication to mothership right before the boom?
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I suppose if the ballast tubes were observed to be some distance from the cradle, you could calculate the speed and trajectory of the sub along with a fudge factor for the force of the implosion and make some assumptions.
 
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