Risk Tolerance

Mtns2Skies

Mtns2Skies

Final Approach
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Mtns2Skies
As I'm getting older my risk tolerance is declining, particularly with relation to potential engine failures. More and more of my night flights and flights in the middle of nowhere with only forest below are me with an internal monologue of "An engine failure would really, really suck right now"... so much so that this stuff just isn't very fun in a single, and it's removing some of the joy of flying. I'm not sure that I can really afford to own or operate a twin right now, though that would certainly assuage some concerns. I didn't used to be such a scaredy cat, and it seems to be particularly surrounding an engine failure more than anything else.

Any recommendations on having healthy fear without it ruining it? Should I just STFU and press onward?
 
Turn the question around. What would make you confident that your engine won't fail on this particular flight? What probability of failure would be low enough?

Maybe I shouldn't say this, but think about your risk tolerance with driving. Do you wear a crash helmet when driving or riding a car? If you did wear a helmet, your risk of severe head injury would be much lower if in an accident. Do you wear a 5-point harness? Does your car have a roll cage?

You accept a certain amount of risk when driving. Why not when flying?
 
write-stuff said:
The older I get I wonder: Which would be better, a slow death in a nursing home or a spectacular crash? Ok, no one freak out. We all know that it would be preferable to die bedridden in a nursing home.
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Yep like grandpa, I wanna go in my sleep ... not like those in the car with him! :D

To the OP ... you're not the only one ...
 
yawn. either fly at night or don't, only you can decide.

on my last local night flight I was briefly thinking the same thing and thought I should at least be flying higher, just to give myself more scream glide time on the way down.
 
I'm with @midwestpa24 . I don't feel any different about engine failures, and I'm not sure if I am less risk tolerant, but my risk and risk mitigation calculations have changed. As examples, I love flying at night but do it far less than I used to. I have become more dedicated to using checklists. My IFR minimums are higher than they were 30 years ago.
 
Mtns2Skies said:
As I'm getting older.....
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laugh-slam.gif
 
My take on this is that if you are truly worried, don't do it. You mention fly over wooded areas, maybe pick a path with outs for issues. This could be near openings or roads or airports. Or maybe you just say "screw it, I'll take the chance".
 
write-stuff said:
The older I get I wonder: Which would be better, a slow death in a nursing home or a spectacular crash? Ok, no one freak out. We all know that it would be preferable to die bedridden in a nursing home.
Click to expand...
I had a friend in college whose preferred method was being shot to death in bed at the age of 97 by a jealous husband.
 
Same here as I’ve gotten older. Just focus more on risk management and mitigation - training, personal limits, maintenance, etc.
 
As I age my risk tolerance is declining ,which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. As your risk tolerance lowers you start to consider more options to make you more comfortable. One decision I made recently is not to cross Lake Michigan on the way to OSH.
 
Most engine failures are caused by operator (pilot) error. Conduct yourself (inspections, maintenance, flying skills etc.) and your flight (fuel, weather etc.) accordingly. In other words, with age comes wisdom, and with wisdom comes caution ... Personally, as I've aged, I have become more cautious, however; I'm still waiting for the wisdom thing to kick in.
 
Mtns2Skies said:
As I'm getting older my risk tolerance is declining, particularly with relation to potential engine failures. More and more of my night flights and flights in the middle of nowhere with only forest below are me with an internal monologue of "An engine failure would really, really suck right now"... so much so that this stuff just isn't very fun in a single, and it's removing some of the joy of flying. I'm not sure that I can really afford to own or operate a twin right now, though that would certainly assuage some concerns. I didn't used to be such a scaredy cat, and it seems to be particularly surrounding an engine failure more than anything else.

Any recommendations on having healthy fear without it ruining it? Should I just STFU and press onward?
Click to expand...

I'm not flying now, so the question is an intellectual one for me, but I asked myself if I would be willing to fly my family around in a Skylane or equivalent. What I decided is that I'd be fine flying with them locally on a nice weather day, there are too many complications involved that would keep me from taking them places, one of which is that much of the area we'd cross would make for a very difficult forced landing.

Bob Noel said:
Turn the question around. What would make you confident that your engine won't fail on this particular flight? What probability of failure would be low enough?

Maybe I shouldn't say this, but think about your risk tolerance with driving. Do you wear a crash helmet when driving or riding a car? If you did wear a helmet, your risk of severe head injury would be much lower if in an accident. Do you wear a 5-point harness? Does your car have a roll cage?

You accept a certain amount of risk when driving. Why not when flying?
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I did some calculations a while back, and I came to the conclusion that flying light GA is about two thirds as risky as riding a motorcycle, but more like five times more likely to kill you than driving/riding in a car, so the risk level is not the same.
 
I'm with you man. I hate singles. The costs of a twin though make it generally a non-starter though

I just try and pick my routes to have a chance of gliding onto something and hopefully living
 
FormerHangie said:
calculations
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The challenge is that we all have different flying styles. Whereas part 121 is extremely standardized and represents good clean data to make these calculations our small GA flying is totally dissimilar
 
kaiser said:
T-Bone... easy enough on the eyes... or a Beech 18 if you really need to look good!
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I think he's more of a Twin Commander type of guy. Not that there's anything wrong with that o_O

I'll tell you this- I've never been comfortable flying at night. Having an engine puke all it's oil onto the windshield just reinforced that for me. I'm quite certain I couldn't have pulled that landing off at night. I'm always looking out the window for places to go, and with very few exceptions there's a spot that's survivable if you have a couple thousand feet of altitude to work with, even with my brick of a plane. Even the densely wooded UP has holes you could stick a plane into. Low IFR over unfriendly (wooded/mountainous) terrain and night are the ones that don't leave any options, so I avoid those as much as possible.
 
As we age, we have a lot more to live for. Young single people, not so much. It’s just part of the mental aging/ maturation process. Completely normal
 
In 35 year of flying I have done about 10 off airport landings in my gliders (1600hrs of glider time). I have walked a lot of farm fields and private airports thinking could I land here safety. Instructing Single engine I practice power failures almost weekly or more. I really hope that when an engine finally completely lets go on me (6500hrs power time so far and no complete failures) I won't embarrass myself to badly by not being able to make a reasonable emergency landing. Another instructor I worked with for a lot of years had 2 power failures. He put it in field once and at a private airstrip the other time.

Closest I have had to a complete failure was while being towed in my glider. When I released the towplane went to idle and descended when he went to add power the throttle cable disconnected and he could not add throttle, he (an old crop duster pilot) landed it in an open area in a railroad yard and called the mechanic to ask him to bring a new bolt and this time maybe cotter pin to hold the nut onto it. After reconnecting the throttle he flew it back to the airport.

I do tend to avoid extended periods of time over areas where I couldn't at least get it down and the wheels turning before I hit something. At a minimum I try to stay near roads so if I were to crash it would be easy for help to get to me.

I tell my students the main thing about being a pilot is there really shouldn't ever be anything that happens in an airplane that we haven't thought about how to best handle before it happens. Better yet is when we can practice what we would do if something happens. We always have a plan B, and often plan C and D also. Generally if we are not willing to accept the consequences of the alternate plan, we try to alter are plan A so we have better alternate plans.

Brian
CFIIG/ASEL
 
write-stuff said:
The older I get I wonder: Which would be better, a slow death in a nursing home or a spectacular crash? Ok, no one freak out. We all know that it would be preferable to die bedridden in a nursing home.
Click to expand...

Uh, no. Seeing my grandmother decline over the last 10 years of her life, give me the crash every day and thrice, yes thrice, on Sundays.
 
Mtns2Skies said:
As I'm getting older my risk tolerance is declining, particularly with relation to potential engine failures. More and more of my night flights and flights in the middle of nowhere with only forest below are me with an internal monologue of "An engine failure would really, really suck right now"... so much so that this stuff just isn't very fun in a single, and it's removing some of the joy of flying. I'm not sure that I can really afford to own or operate a twin right now, though that would certainly assuage some concerns. I didn't used to be such a scaredy cat, and it seems to be particularly surrounding an engine failure more than anything else.

Any recommendations on having healthy fear without it ruining it? Should I just STFU and press onward?
Click to expand...
Welcome to recognizing mortality.
 
write-stuff said:
The older I get I wonder: Which would be better, a slow death in a nursing home or a spectacular crash? Ok, no one freak out. We all know that it would be preferable to die bedridden in a nursing home.
Click to expand...

midlifeflyer said:
I had a friend in college whose preferred method was being shot to death in bed at the age of 97 by a jealous husband.
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Definition of savoir faire: The ability to act or speak appropriately in social situations.

Example:
Three French gentleman are discussing the true definition of "savoir faire"

"Mes amis, let me tell you the meaning of 'savoir faire': a husband comes home early, walks into the bedroom and discovers his wife in bed with another man - Pierre - in the middle of ze act. He does not react, but with great dignity walks out of the room and closes the door. THAT, mes amis, is 'savoir faire'!"

"Non non non!" says the second, "that is NOT 'savoir faire'! It is when the husband comes home, discovers his wife in bed with this Pierre. He first says with great politeness and perhaps a small bow, *'please, continue'*. Only THEN he walks out with dignity and closes the door. THIS is 'savoir faire'"

The third friend replies, "Mes amis you do not understand these things. It is when Pierre is in bed with his mistress, making love. Her husband comes home early and walks in ze door. The husband bows politely then walks out with great dignity and closes ze door, saying *'please, continue'*....

and Pierre *does!*.

[ another variation is same story but chutzpah instead of savoir faire]
 
WRT engine failure, the a good engine monitor and being on a routine oil analysis program are about the best things you can do understand if things are about to come from together.

That’s the logical argument. I won’t do night IMC in my region, I won’t takeoff without being able to get back in, and I accept if something catastrophic happens on takeoff below 1K AGL, I need to be on my A game, which also means I don’t like ceilings below OVC010 in general.

There’s no logic behind that, just the chances I’m willing to take.
 
Allow me a short story: I was flying my Bonanza from central Wisconsin to Traverse City, Michigan, and as we crossed Green Bay, there was a slight hiccup and the rpm fluctuated for just a second, but enough to get my attention as we were about to cross a large body of water. I debated landing at Sturgeon Bay, but it was running smoothly again, so I continued. Nothing happened.

The next day, I flew from Traverse City to Cadillac, where a group of my pilot friends was enjoying our annual "float plane weekend." As it happened, Mike Busch of Savvy Aviator was there that year, and I told him about my engine "hiccup" and my concern. His assessment was reassuring. He said it might have been a bit of dirt on an injector, or a tiny bit of water going through, but he also mentioned that even if I had lost a cylinder, the engine likely would have gotten us across the lake on the other five, maybe losing some altitude. He said catastrophic failures are rare; engines usually give you some warnings such as loss of rpm or running rough, long before they fail to produce power.

I kind of stopped worrying about it after that, and I have made more than 240 crossings of Lake Michigan in single-engine airplanes.
 
172andyou said:
And twins are less safe anyway. They are just differently unsafe.
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Right, an engine out in a twin usually means you fly farther to the scene of the crash. Also, twins are heavier and stall faster, so there's more energy to dissipate when you crash.

My thought on risk mitigation is to fly high enough, when possible, to be able to glide to the nearest airport you added to your flight plan just in case you lose an engine. Sort of the aviation equivalent of curving highways to stave off highway hypnosis.
 
Daleandee said:
Yep like grandpa, I wanna go in my sleep ... not screaming in terror like those in the car with him! :D
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FIFY :lol::lol:

Actually as I age (63) I find myself still taking chances. But I do think through what I am about to do. I mean I know jumping off the roof of my house may break an ankle, or at least a sprain, so I will modify the landing. But it doesn't stop me. Actually the last time off the roof wasn't a jump but more like falling with grace...

I used to fly single engine in Alaska at night. I really never thought about what may happen if by some little chance the engine fell off. I am thinking I may be in the market for a 206 next summer so I can land at my work location instead of driving.

I still drive too fast and have no idea what the brake pedal is for. The teenage boys at church all think the exhaust on my diesel sounds really cool. I know I am setting a bad example, but I will drift my truck around the parking lot which really impresses the youth director, and causes the pastors wife to laugh.

My wife thinks I am nuts and just stares at me with mouth open when I tell her about my exploits before we met, but I am not as bad as I used to be. I just figure life is too short to sit and worry about what might happen, so just do it and have fun.

(as long as it is quasi legal...)
 
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