Probably NA: Plane hits mountain, er...we're not sure

Let'sgoflying!

Let'sgoflying!

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We have been watching local news for a few days about a 'plane crash' on the highest mountain in Texas, Guadalupe Peak (almost 9K). The first article had "Plane Crash" in the title with an image of an airplane flying by. Now they are saying they do not see any recent* wreckage nearby (but have not ruled the possibility out)
(*there is plenty of a/c wreckage on that hill from past accidents)
However they have not figured out what caused the 30 acre blaze, and have ruled out all the usual things like lightning (no lightning in the area for some time), campers & arsonists. I am wondering if a meteorite can be hot enough to do this, we see them all the time and there have been some fireballs reported by locals lately too.
 
Maybe it was started by the Marfa Lights... ;)
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
We have been watching local news for a few days about a 'plane crash' on the highest mountain in Texas, Guadalupe Peak (almost 9K). The first article had "Plane Crash" in the title with an image of an airplane flying by. Now they are saying they do not see any recent* wreckage nearby (but have not ruled the possibility out)
(*there is plenty of a/c wreckage on that hill from past accidents)
However they have not figured out what caused the 30 acre blaze, and have ruled out all the usual things like lightning (no lightning in the area for some time), campers & arsonists. I am wondering if a meteorite can be hot enough to do this, we see them all the time and there have been some fireballs reported by locals lately too.
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If it's tinder dry, yes a meteorite could cause ignition, but I suspect it would need to be large enough that it in itself would have caused a stir.
 
Henning said:
If it's tinder dry, yes a meteorite could cause ignition, but I suspect it would need to be large enough that it in itself would have caused a stir.
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hmm, I suppose that is true however that place is so far from people, there might be no one to stir! Thanks.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
hmm, I suppose that is true however that place is so far from people, there might be no one to stir! Thanks.
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Think about it, in order to start a fire, a piece of meteorite large enough to retain that level of heat to the ground would be pretty damned large on entry, and form an identifiable crater at the fire's point of origin. It would have stirred someone even out there, thing is, they may never report it, but when the fire investigators look, they'll find it.
 
Henning said:
Think about it, in order to start a fire, a piece of meteorite large enough to retain that level of heat
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I would think about it, but I regret my current knowledge of space rock re-entry thermodynamics is sadly lacking.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
I would think about it, but I regret my current knowledge of space rock re-entry thermodynamics is sadly lacking.
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Tell you what, I know how to find out. You can ask USGS, it would have an impact sufficient to show up on a seismograph somewhere.
 
It could have been aliens drinking beer and shooting lizards with lasers out there and nobody would have noticed.:lol:
 
Sounds like they have absolutely no idea at all except that there was a fire. Where did the plane crash theory come from? Was there an actual report by someone that they saw a plane crash? Was a plane reported missing in the area? Or was that just a wild theory as one of the myriad number of things that could cause a fire?
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
I would think about it, but I regret my current knowledge of space rock re-entry thermodynamics is sadly lacking.
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It starts really really hot, and cools kind a quick, the less of it there is, the quicker it cools. Let me put it to you like this, if a Mig spatter goes in your boot, you barely feel it right? OTOH if a big cutting torch goober goes into your boot, you're coming out of your boot. Even though the MIG spatter was hotter to begin with, it didn't have the energy quantity to transfer left by the time it made your boot. This is the size, or smaller, of the vast majority of meteorite material.

While the cutting goober started cooler, it had enough mass to stay hot and burn your sock an boot liner along with your foot. That is the size of meteorite that has to make it to the surface to start a fire, and considering IIRC the average meteorite impact is something like 17km/second, that's gonna make a pretty good 'thump'.
 
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Henning said:
It could have been aliens drinking beer and shooting lizards with lasers out there and nobody would have noticed.:lol:
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I choose to believe this one..... :lol::lol::lol:

Lots of illegals traverse through the area, but I would think they go around higher terrain instead of over it.
 
The news website said 'plane'; I think that was because there was aircraft wreckage seen in the area (but that was from a previous crash), plus no other reasonable explanations were put forth. Wild theory, as you note.

SkyDog58 said:
Where did the plane crash theory come from? Was there an actual report by someone that they saw a plane crash? Was a plane reported missing in the area? Or was that just a wild theory as one of the myriad number of things that could cause a fire?
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Zeldman said:
I choose to believe this one..... :lol::lol::lol:

Lots of illegals traverse through the area, but I would think they go around higher terrain instead of over it.
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Especially in winter. My bet is still hunters, it's deer season IIRC. In that area that is the most likely source of a human being, and without lightning present, a human is the most likely source. Planes fly low in the region due to pipelines all the time.
 
I've been following this story, too, and a meteorite crossed my mind, but seemed unlikely. I'm just glad it wasn't a plane (at least it doesn't appear to be at this point).
 
Henning said:
Especially in winter. My bet is still hunters, it's deer season IIRC. In that area that is the most likely source of a human being, and without lightning present, a human is the most likely source. Planes fly low in the region due to pipelines all the time.
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Yep, hunting season is going strong. A cigarette or campfire may have started the fire.

It is not unheard of for the illegals traveling through the area to break into dwellings and build a small fire to get warm, only to burn the place down.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
I would think about it, but I regret my current knowledge of space rock re-entry thermodynamics is sadly lacking.
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Phil Plait, on his "Bad Astronomy" Page, has pointed out several times that meteorites are cool by the time they get to Earth.

The heat related to re-entry usually breaks them up, up high, and the bits have plenty of time to cool as they come down through the atmosphere. That's one way you can tell a faked photo; the people who set it up usually have something smoking.

Ron Wanttaja
 
It can't have been caused by an airplane. According to my research, airplane flying near Guadalupe Peak are required to carry water bags. Therefore, if the airplane crashes, the water bag puts out the fire.
 
wanttaja said:
Phil Plait, on his "Bad Astronomy" Page, has pointed out several times that meteorites are cool by the time they get to Earth.

The heat related to re-entry usually breaks them up, up high, and the bits have plenty of time to cool as they come down through the atmosphere. That's one way you can tell a faked photo; the people who set it up usually have something smoking.

Ron Wanttaja
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Yup, Phil is a good source for this kind of stuff.

Another variable is that meteorite strikes are visible for HUNDREDS of miles around. Even if it's the middle of nowhere, it's going to be seen. They are always a LOT further than you think.

I once got flash blinded by a meteorite, during the annual summer Perseid shower, in the early 90s. The last thing I saw for several minutes was its smoke trail. I was convinced the meteorite hit something nearby, 'cause it was so incredibly bright. Asking around the astro department the next day, I found there had indeed been a reported strike -- in the Klamath Range some 400 miles north.
 
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MAKG1 said:
Yup, Phil is a good source for this kind of stuff.

Another variable is that meteorite strikes are visible for HUNDREDS of miles around. Even if it's the middle of nowhere, it's going to be seen. They are always a LOT further than you think.

I once got flash blinded by a meteorite, during the annual summer Perseid shower, in the early 90s. The last thing I saw for several minutes was its smoke trail. I was convinced the meteorite hit something nearby, 'cause it was so incredibly bright. Asking around the astro department the next day, I found there had indeed been a reported strike -- in the Klamath Range some 400 miles north.
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Wouldn't that depend on how large it is when it hits? Something the size of a basketball upon impact will obviously have more light being kicked out than something the size of a golf ball, or a pea, right?
 
EdFred said:
Wouldn't that depend on how large it is when it hits? Something the size of a basketball upon impact will obviously have more light being kicked out than something the size of a golf ball, or a pea, right?
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Sure, but if it's gonna light a fire, it's gonna be big.

It also matters what it's made out of. There are three basic building blocks -- iron/nickel, "carbonaceous," and various ices. I suspect the one I saw was carbonaceous, but I never heard (and I doubt anyone went to retrieve it -- landing in forest like it did, it would be next to impossible to find).

It just has to be something else. Maybe hunters or hikers, I suppose. Are we sure there wasn't lightning? There can be on high mountain peaks even when there isn't lightning elsewhere.
 
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MAKG1 said:
Sure, but if it's gonna light a fire, it's gonna be big.

It also matters what it's made out of. There are three basic building blocks -- iron/nickel, "carbonaceous," and various ices.
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And if I recall, it's pretty much only the iron/nickel ones that make it all the way to impact. The ices sublimate, and the carbonaceous generally aren't solid enough to make it all the way to impact, right?

And yeah, if it's still burning when it hits, I would expect not only a fire, but a few seismographs to go off.
 
EdFred said:
And if I recall, it's pretty much only the iron/nickel ones that make it all the way to impact. The ices sublimate, and the carbonaceous generally aren't solid enough to make it all the way to impact, right?

And yeah, if it's still burning when it hits, I would expect not only a fire, but a few seismographs to go off.
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There are plenty of carbonaceous meteorite finds, so some of them clearly make it down. It seems likely that a carbonaceous or stony meteorite would need to be bigger than a corresponding iron/nickel meteorite to make it down.

As for ices, well not likely, but it's debatable. Some folks think that's what happened in Tunguska, Russia in 1908, for instance.
 
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Zeldman said:
Yep, hunting season is going strong. A cigarette or campfire may have started the fire.

It is not unheard of for the illegals traveling through the area to break into dwellings and build a small fire to get warm, only to burn the place down.
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Yeah, the human vector is still the most likely.
 
wanttaja said:
Phil Plait, on his "Bad Astronomy" Page, has pointed out several times that meteorites are cool by the time they get to Earth.

The heat related to re-entry usually breaks them up, up high, and the bits have plenty of time to cool as they come down through the atmosphere. That's one way you can tell a faked photo; the people who set it up usually have something smoking.

Ron Wanttaja
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The energy of impact alone could cause smoke if the object has enough mass.
 
Henning said:
The energy of impact alone could cause smoke if the object has enough mass.
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If it had enough mass to do that, people wouldn't be talking about the mystery fire on some out of the way peak. They would be talking about the big fireball that blew across the sky over several states. Big meteorites are not subtle.
 
MAKG1 said:
If it had enough mass to do that, people wouldn't be talking about the mystery fire on some out of the way peak. They would be talking about the big fireball that blew across the sky over several states. Big meteorites are not subtle.
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I completely agree with that, that's why I said a call to USGS would answer the question quickly. Even if by chance nobody saw it, (or it was seen and unreported), there would be a record of it on a seismograph somewhere, and people at USGS would be talking about it.

Subtle is the last thing a big meteorite is.:lol:

I address the meteorite theory purely theoretically, I don't think it's involved here. "Could it...?" "Yep".
 
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Let'sgoflying! said:
The news website said 'plane'; I think that was because there was aircraft wreckage seen in the area (but that was from a previous crash), plus no other reasonable explanations were put forth. Wild theory, as you note.
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One of the first crashes on Guadalupe Peak was a B-17 on a night training mission out of Pyote Army Air Field. I think it was early 1943.
 
SkyDog58 said:
I flew through Banning pass a few times while living in SoCal. I didn't notice any wrecks but then again, I was mesmerized by all of the wind turbines.
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It's usually harder to spot even fresh wrecks than people think. Unless it's on fire, you won't spot it unless you're at 1000 AGL and looking intently. My guess is you were quite a bit higher than that.

If it's overgrown with 50 years of stuff, you'll have to walk through the wreck to see it, and you might miss it even then.
 
I was probably 500' to 1000' above BNG pattern altitude which would have been 1500' to 2000' AGL. But yeah, I know it is difficult to spot wrecks especially since I was not looking.
 
MAKG1 said:
It's usually harder to spot even fresh wrecks than people think. Unless it's on fire, you won't spot it unless you're at 1000 AGL and looking intently. My guess is you were quite a bit higher than that.

If it's overgrown with 50 years of stuff, you'll have to walk through the wreck to see it, and you might miss it even then.
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Agree. There are old wrecks all over Colorado. CAP gives out GPS coordinates for most of them to their air crews. We've gone out and tried to spot a few. They are far harder to spot than fresh wrecks and fresh ones are pretty hard to find to begin with. The problem is vegetation grows up around them, snowfall moves them downslope, colors fade and metal rusts, people remove salvageable bits or just scavenge the sites, etc.

There are some old war bird crash sites (like the B-17 here in Douglas County) that are well known and people have great difficulty finding them even on foot.
 
petrolero said:
Agree. There are old wrecks all over Colorado. CAP gives out GPS coordinates for most of them to their air crews. We've gone out and tried to spot a few. They are far harder to spot than fresh wrecks and fresh ones are pretty hard to find to begin with. The problem is vegetation grows up around them, snowfall moves them downslope, colors fade and metal rusts, people remove salvageable bits or just scavenge the sites, etc.

There are some old war bird crash sites (like the B-17 here in Douglas County) that are well known and people have great difficulty finding them even on foot.
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We had an exercise near Fresno where a local "black hat" placed a beacon IN an old wreck. The ground crews saw it, but the aircrews didn't, even with that **** "whoop whoop whoop whoop" leading them right to it.

There are old wrecks all over the place. There is one here that even has a hiking trail named after the aircraft (the "Resolution," a DC-6), and it's not easy to find the wreck site on foot. It's not far from Woodside VOR.
 
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