Plane missing, Andros Island Bahamas

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mryan75

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mryan75
Grandfather pilot, his wife and two grandchildren. Taking off apparently in pretty bad weather. PA-34. Aircraft missing.
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Ugh this is terrible. It almost looks like he was IFR but could not fly IFR. I hate it for his family.
 
ahmad said:
Ugh this is terrible. It almost looks like he was IFR but could not fly IFR. I hate it for his family.
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ASEL/AMEL/Instrument rated, which we know doesn't mean he was proficient, or that the airplane was 100% functional.
Less than an hour to the US mainland, but the plane didn't exactly make a beeline; in fact, it has that telltale signature we all hate to see.
 
Miami — Four bodies were found Tuesday after a small plane carrying members of a Miami family went missing off the Bahamas, authorities in the Bahamas said Tuesday.
 
FlightmechH3 said:
80yo pilot? Wow
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I come from a family whose bodies fail long before their minds. But I've also seen the opposite (and am seeing that in several people not far from my seven decades.)
So at first glance, I don't worry so much about the age. But maybe I can question the decision making (I made a bad one last week, luckily it came to nothing, and "lesson learned") as the weather wasn't what I'd want for an hour over open water.
 
I'm not sure being 80 has anything to do with this accident (speaking as a aging pilot myself - LOL). It appears from the ADS-B data that he attemped to weave his way between some convective cells, probably still developing ones as this was late morning. He obviously failed, but this was not a good idea to start with. The reason pilots do this sort of thing is because they often get away with it and then learn to disregard long-standing safety protocols. They get away with it, until one day they don't.
 
davela said:
I'm not sure being 80 has anything to do with this accident (speaking as a aging pilot myself - LOL). It appears from the ADS-B data that he attemped to weave his way between some convective cells, probably still developing ones as this was late morning. He obviously failed, but this was not a good idea to start with. The reason pilots do this sort of thing is because they often get away with it and then learn to disregard long-standing safety protocols. They get away with it, until one day they don't.
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Flying thunderstorms you have to be on your A game on the gauges.
I'm younger and not up to that.
 
bonefishpete said:
Flying thunderstorms you have to be on your A game on the gauges.
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Recently I canceled a trip and drove instead (long, miserable drive) because the forecast called for a good amount of thunderstorms in the area. I wasn't going to try to dodge pop-ups with 15-30 minute old NEXRAD data. I hear they didn't even had that.

All I can see is the weather snapshot on flightaware. I would've waited it out.

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Ironically, open water is about the one place where you'd be well suited to scud run the living crap out of that situation, and live. Chop the throttles, trim for an airspeed below Va, forget the world screaming and crumbling around you, and just focus on wings level. You'll come out the bottom with plenty of VMC to breathe, change your underwear, weave around the shafts, and get your crap together. No need to die just to save face. Scud running is a legitimate emergency option here. The ideal would have been turn around, of course.

Condolences to the surviving family and friends. That's rough, the g-kids were young adults in their prime, that's a lot of potential cut short. It's also wild to read about how family members succeeded at body recovery, in purportedly inclement enough weather to stall Bahamas Police and the US Coast Guard from doing so. That also highlights just how imprudent it must have been for that flight to attempt the push-through at the time they did.

It's a hobby fam, it can wait. VFR is more fun anyways.
 
Bobanna said:
I’d guess that this suggests they survived a ditching,; without any flotation, how long can you tread water? My sympathy and condolences to all those related.
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Did I miss something where someone specifically knew they did not have PFDs? I would venture that anyone that flies to the Bahamas, or frequently just over the ocean, is going to have PFDs and very likely a raft. There's a good chance they were even wearing them for that length of a flight.

I have them for short hops to islands where I'm never out of glide range to the shoreline. But it is not worth it not to have them.
 
hindsight2020 said:
Ironically, open water is about the one place where you'd be well suited to scud run the living crap out of that situation, and live. Chop the throttles, trim for an airspeed below Va, forget the world screaming and crumbling around you, and just focus on wings level. You'll come out the bottom with plenty of VMC to breathe, change your underwear, weave around the shafts, and get your crap together. No need to die just to save face. Scud running is a legitimate emergency option here. The ideal would have been turn around, of course.

Condolences to the surviving family and friends. That's rough, the g-kids were young adults in their prime, that's a lot of potential cut short. It's also wild to read about how family members succeeded at body recovery, in purportedly inclement enough weather to stall Bahamas Police and the US Coast Guard from doing so. That also highlights just how imprudent it must have been for that flight to attempt the push-through at the time they did.

It's a hobby fam, it can wait. VFR is more fun anyways.
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Fly though trash weather or chill in the Bahamas.

That shouldn't be a tough decision.
 
Wouldn’t surviving the crash imply that the aircraft was under control at the time of impact with the water?

This is generally not the case for inadvertent TS penetration.
 
bonefishpete said:
Flying thunderstorms you have to be on your A game on the gauges.
I'm younger and not up to that
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I'm not sure what you mean by "flying thunderstorms" and gauges. I hope you don't mean to imply that flying IFR into an environment with known embedded thunderstorms is a acceptable if one is "A game" on the gauges - at least in most GA aircraft with most GA pilots at the controls (yours truly included).
 
hindsight2020 said:
Ironically, open water is about the one place where you'd be well suited to scud run the living crap out of that situation, and live. Chop the throttles, trim for an airspeed below Va, forget the world screaming and crumbling around you, and just focus on wings level. You'll come out the bottom with plenty of VMC to breathe,
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One of the skydive pilots I flew with used to follow that logic occasionally in the non-ifr jump planes. Fly out over the Great Salt Lake, setup a circling descent, break out just above the water, and cruise in to Tooele, easy. Worked pretty well till he broke out upside down in a Kingair.
 
davela said:
I'm not sure what you mean by "flying thunderstorms" and gauges. I hope you don't mean to imply that flying IFR into an environment with known embedded thunderstorms is a acceptable if one is "A game" on the gauges - at least in most GA aircraft with most GA pilots at the controls (yours truly included).
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Numerous aircraft flew through that area that day just not into that thunderstorm.Convective Sigments are a daily occurrence in the summer time in Florida.
 
I am back and forth all the time. We have life preservers but we do not wear them in the twin when crossing.

That said, I have made the crossing at 17500' and also at 500' depending on the weather. When it's crap weather, I have always flown below the clouds and around the rain.
 
AV8R_87 said:
Recently I canceled a trip and drove instead (long, miserable drive) because the forecast called for a good amount of thunderstorms in the area. I wasn't going to try to dodge pop-ups with 15-30 minute old NEXRAD data. I hear they didn't even had that.
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I'm in a Bahamas Flying group on Facebook, and someone recently made a very interesting post there showing that the options are absolutely terrible:

1) ADS-B (TIS-B FIS) doesn't reach very far off the Florida shore - 60-100 miles depending on altitude.
2) XM WX has signal, but only carries CONUS-based radar, the Bahamas radar stations are not included so there's a big hole there too.
3) Even Starlink is problematic: Unless you have the $1000/mo World plan, they cut off your connectivity 12nm offshore.
4) All that's left is onboard weather equipment, of which us little guys have very little most of the time. We're back to the ancient Stormscope days!

Racerx said:
Fly though trash weather or chill in the Bahamas.

That shouldn't be a tough decision.
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Those thunderstorms happen pretty much every day down there. Unless you're wheels up very early, tomorrow is practically gonna be just like today.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
I'm in a Bahamas Flying group on Facebook, and someone recently made a very interesting post there showing that the options are absolutely terrible:

1) ADS-B (TIS-B FIS) doesn't reach very far off the Florida shore - 60-100 miles depending on altitude.
2) XM WX has signal, but only carries CONUS-based radar, the Bahamas radar stations are not included so there's a big hole there too.
3) Even Starlink is problematic: Unless you have the $1000/mo World plan, they cut off your connectivity 12nm offshore.
4) All that's left is onboard weather equipment, of which us little guys have very little most of the time. We're back to the ancient Stormscope days!


Those thunderstorms happen pretty much every day down there. Unless you're wheels up very early, tomorrow is practically gonna be just like today.
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About 4pm everyday it seemed like.
 
Bobanna said:
I’d guess that this suggests they survived a ditching,; without any flotation, how long can you tread water?
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At least several hours in warm salt water, if you are physically healthy and a strong swimmer. Longer if you have training.

But I doubt they survived impact.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
I'm in a Bahamas Flying group on Facebook, and someone recently made a very interesting post there showing that the options are absolutely terrible:

1) ADS-B (TIS-B FIS) doesn't reach very far off the Florida shore - 60-100 miles depending on altitude.
2) XM WX has signal, but only carries CONUS-based radar, the Bahamas radar stations are not included so there's a big hole there too.
3) Even Starlink is problematic: Unless you have the $1000/mo World plan, they cut off your connectivity 12nm offshore.
4) All that's left is onboard weather equipment, of which us little guys have very little most of the time. We're back to the ancient Stormscope days!


Those thunderstorms happen pretty much every day down there. Unless you're wheels up very early, tomorrow is practically gonna be just like today.
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I just got back from two weeks in the islands and I’ve spent a lot of time down there. Maybe one day in two weeks is truly bad thunderstorms. You get buildups daily but that’s late in the day. Regardless, he absolutely did not have to take off.
 
Kenny Phillips said:
I come from a family whose bodies fail long before their minds. But I've also seen the opposite (and am seeing that in several people not far from my seven decades.)
So at first glance, I don't worry so much about the age. But maybe I can question the decision making (I made a bad one last week, luckily it came to nothing, and "lesson learned") as the weather wasn't what I'd want for an hour over open water.
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Then again, this might not have been age related, but just "bad decision" related. JKF Jr. was no where this age and yet he did the same thing.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
I'm in a Bahamas Flying group on Facebook, and someone recently made a very interesting post there showing that the options are absolutely terrible:

1) ADS-B (TIS-B FIS) doesn't reach very far off the Florida shore - 60-100 miles depending on altitude.
2) XM WX has signal, but only carries CONUS-based radar, the Bahamas radar stations are not included so there's a big hole there too.
3) Even Starlink is problematic: Unless you have the $1000/mo World plan, they cut off your connectivity 12nm offshore.
4) All that's left is onboard weather equipment, of which us little guys have very little most of the time. We're back to the ancient Stormscope days!
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5. The Mk1 eyeball. 1 look out the window is worth a thousand radar sweeps. Stay visual.
 
MauleSkinner said:
5. The Mk1 eyeball. 1 look out the window is worth a thousand radar sweeps. Stay visual.
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There’s an Aztec charter operator here that flies to the bahamas frequently. This summer I’ve seen him come back at 1500’ - 2000’ the whole way numerous times.
 
hindsight2020 said:
Ironically, open water is about the one place where you'd be well suited to scud run the living crap out of that situation, and live. Chop the throttles, trim for an airspeed below Va, forget the world screaming and crumbling around you, and just focus on wings level. You'll come out the bottom with plenty of VMC to breathe, change your underwear, weave around the shafts, and get your crap together. No need to die just to save face.
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Thanks for putting it in these terms. That's a great way to think about the situation when you end up there
 
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