pilot airline jobs are we at the peak

brien23

brien23

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Airlines have hired a lot on new first officers in the pipeline to move over to the left seat and replace those old ones on the way out. Those in the door now are the ones that will fill the left seats for the next 20 to 30 years, those after them will probably be sitting in the right seat for a long time as seniority is the way to the left seat in the airlines. So what is the path for new CFI in the pipeline doing his or her time building hours with hopes of moving over to the airlines and the left seat, is that dream still their or the reality of sitting as a first officer for a real long time going to slow things down. And also in the pipeline technologies like more autonomous aircraft, is ushering in the most significant change to aviation since the advent of the jet age over 70 years ago.Those in the aviation school business of training pilots have not slowed down banging the drum of airline jobs now and forever no end in sight, so what is the real truth?
 
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Being a career FO isn't so bad. It's a great job in either seat. "Usually" best to be the Capt. But don't discount a career as a FO if that's how it works out. Would you rather be a FO for a career, or a car salesman, or realestate agent or grocery clerk? There are lots of ways to make a living, some are just better than others.
 
It’s all about timing. There has been a LOT of hiring. I know Delta is planning on hiring less this year than they have been hiring. It’s gotta stop at some point. Like Oldmanb777 said, career FO isn’t a bad gig either.

I remember way back when I used to commute on TWA they had guys who had been in the FE seat for 10-12 years.
 
brien23 said:
Airlines have hired a lot on new first officers in the pipeline to move over to the left seat and replace those old ones on the way out. Those in the door now are the ones that will fill the left seats for the next 20 to 30 years, those after them will probably be sitting in the right seat for a long time as seniority is the way to the left seat in the airlines. So what is the path for new CFI in the pipeline doing his or her time building hours with hopes of moving over to the airlines and the left seat, is that dream still their or the reality of sitting as a first officer for a real long time going to slow things down. And also in the pipeline technologies like more autonomous aircraft, is ushering in the most significant change to aviation since the advent of the jet age over 70 years ago.Those in the aviation school business of training pilots have not slowed down banging the drum of airline jobs now and forever no end in sight, so what is the real truth?
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One of the most poorly written posts I’ve seen on here in a long, long time. To be asking about professional pilots, in such an unprofessional manner, raises its own questions.
 
kep5niner said:
One of the most poorly written posts I’ve seen on here in a long, long time. To be asking about professional pilots, in such an unprofessional manner, raises its own questions.
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Perhaps there's some grammar errors but the content seems pretty on-point.

I've often wondered the same thing about the airline industry. I see so many young, career-oriented student pilots in my area that I wonder how there can possibly be jobs for all of them.
The only thing that would worry me if I was going the CFI route for hour-building is if that student spigot turns off and there's fewer people to teach.
Then again, based on how fully utilized the fleet of training aircraft are around me it doesn't seem like we're anywhere near that point.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
I've often wondered the same thing about the airline industry. I see so many young, career-oriented student pilots in my area that I wonder how there can possibly be jobs for all of them.
The only thing that would worry me if I was going the CFI route for hour-building is if that student spigot turns off and there's fewer people to teach.
Then again, based on how fully utilized the fleet of training aircraft are around me it doesn't seem like we're anywhere near that point.
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Been there, got the furlough notice to prove it. First day of indoc........Congrats, you just won the lottery and your going to be a rock star and a Capt next month." Next day,,,,,,,,,,,Here is your furlough notice, don't call us we won't call you either. You get recalled and furloughed several times until you have enough senority to stick it out. Your company goes out of business, so you start the process all over again. 10 yrs later you get to jerk gear for another 10 yrs, then maybe Capt for a couple years before you retire. Yea it's all about timing Yea things change. Don't go buy that boat with your first check after probation, rat hole it for the bad times.
 
Busflyer said:
I remember way back when I used to commute on TWA they had guys who had been in the FE seat for 10-12 years.
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That was my Dad. His first 17 years at TWA were as a 707 F/E domiciled in SFO broken up with a couple of short lived F/O bids...
 
Oldmanb777 said:
Been there, got the furlough notice to prove it. First day of indoc........Congrats, you just won the lottery and your going to be a rock star and a Capt next month." Next day,,,,,,,,,,,Here is your furlough notice, don't call us we won't call you either. You get recalled and furloughed several times until you have enough senority to stick it out. Your company goes out of business, so you start the process all over again. 10 yrs later you get to jerk gear for another 10 yrs, then maybe Capt for a couple years before you retire. Yea it's all about timing Yea things change. Don't go buy that boat with your first check after probation, rat hole it for the bad times.
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This seems at odds with your "It's a great job in either seat" claim.
 
Like much in life, it’s perspective. THAT is the best thing about being an AIRLINE pilot. More than most jobs, you can change A LOT to suit yourself… to wit:

1. Schedule.
2. Equipment.
3. Pay vs time off.
4. Location.
5. Level of responsibility.
6. While a little less common, you don’t even have to fly! (I don’t trust these types)
7. Type of flying.
Etc.

The bigger the company, the more of these options you have. Go to work for Southwest, forget equipment changes. Go to work for USAJet, you got one base.

Some people LOVE 16 days on, 14 days off… others hate spending even one night away from home in a hotel. At Everts Air Cargo you can do either, as a new hire.

The disgruntled ones either don’t know what they want, just didn’t pick the right situation, perhaps some dynamic changed on them, or they could just be happy being mad… hard to say! But it generally is a very flexible field of work.
 
It'll be interesting to watch. I personally know 4 pilots who are working on building hours and ratings to make the jump from IT to professional pilot over the next year or so. I also read stories about the box carriers sending pilots to the airlines and regionals not hiring new FOs because they have to force some to upgrade to captain first. It feels to me like we've passed the peak and are on the back side. I just hope my friends get in early enough to not be the ones who get furloughed next time the economy tanks.

I will also say that I expected the economy to crashing by now after that inflation & interest spike, but we seem to be plodding along. Otoh, I also hear anecdotally about IT jobs disappearing, which would seem to be a leading indicator of companies having trouble.
 
Oldmanb777 said:
Been there, got the furlough notice to prove it. First day of indoc........Congrats, you just won the lottery and your going to be a rock star and a Capt next month." Next day,,,,,,,,,,,Here is your furlough notice, don't call us we won't call you either. You get recalled and furloughed several times until you have enough senority to stick it out. Your company goes out of business, so you start the process all over again. 10 yrs later you get to jerk gear for another 10 yrs, then maybe Capt for a couple years before you retire. Yea it's all about timing Yea things change. Don't go buy that boat with your first check after probation, rat hole it for the bad times.
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Jeez, were you in my new hire class? The exact same thing happened to me.
 
I think the accelerated hiring phase is over, but hiring will continue and I doubt we’ll have any systemic furloughs. Sure, poor business decisions may lead to bankruptcies and dissolutions for some, but air carrier demand is still there and growing. I recall some [135] industry report showing new aircraft orders are accelerating in all sizes, and a large component are new market entrants. I can only assume it’s a proxy for 121 as well.

Jim K said:
IT jobs disappearing
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I don’t think I fully agree. It’s definitely shifting, budgets are down this year, tech firms are shifting focus, and lots of traditional IT open requisitions are getting cancelled, but there is tons of work out there. Hence fleeing the poor work life balance. However, my group has grown from 15 to 45 in under 2 years.
 
Personally, I rather take a furlough than get stuck for years as the plug in seat, any seat, especially as a commuter. I recognize I'm be able to say that from the position of a second career guy. But life is about choices, and I won't apologize for mine.
 
Kent Wien said:
Jeez, were you in my new hire class? The exact same thing happened to me.
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Probably in one of them.
Yes its a great career once you get enough seniority to hang on in the bad times, and your company doesn't go TU. But you will pay your dues.
 
A friend of mine's dad was a Captain at Braniff when they went under. He then went to Muse Air as FO. Then he went to American. When he was hired at American, he was supposedly the oldest pilot they had hired at age 40 back then. He had to retire because of the age 60 rule, and he was still a FO.

My Dad, around the same age, went to Continental in the mid 50's. Made Captain after 12-15 years. The Continental strike happened when he was 50 and he took early retirement. He finished his career flying Captain on corporate 727's flying all over the world.

I went Corporate and have been lucky enough to have never been laid off after 40 years and 4 jobs. Getting close to retirement.

It all depends on luck, timing and or who you know.
 
Overall, I’ve kind of hit the lotto with this career. Only spent 4 years at a regional and upgraded after 18 months. The only hiccup I’ve had was getting hired at my legacy in March 2020 (yay). Even that wasn’t bad. I got sent home from training and got a furlough letter but didn’t end up getting furloughed and even got reduced pay the entire 8 months I was at home which I was grateful for. After that I could have upgraded on the 757/767 if I wanted to. I chose to go the widebody FO route. Quality of life, layovers and pay are great and I still have complete control over my schedule which is kind of necessary now that I have a baby. An added bonus is I’ll get to fly with my dad his last 3 years and I’ll do his retirement flight which will be special. 4 years in and there’s already close to 6000 people hired behind me and that’s with a year without hiring. Good times to be had for now. I’m glad I got in when I did.
 
A neighbor who flies 787s for American said that the next hiring group will have some new-hire FOs going straight to the 787. Something about the base and schedule choices. Another neighbor was hired in December and by the time he completes training in March will have several hundred below him. And he got his choice of bases (Miami) already.
 
I went from the left seat of a narrowbody to the right seat of the 777 and couldn't be happier. And being in base, the flexibility to bid reserve when I'd rather be home all month is pretty nice. As @jordane93 said, this widebody stuff is especially awesome with a young kiddo. I can see why people camp out in the right seat for the majority of their careers.
 
kayoh190 said:
I went from the left seat of a narrowbody to the right seat of the 777 and couldn't be happier. And being in base, the flexibility to bid reserve when I'd rather be home all month is pretty nice.
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To wit, you can do that(...ish) in the right seat of group II as well, without the exposure to circadian trash (at lower pay of course). At least that what I see from the recent utilization (SC RSV) numbers one of my internAAl buddies showed me for some of the domiciles I'm eyeballing after .mil retirement. Add some mildrop in the early years, and no need to wait for group IV Shangri-La to get paid a healthy stipend to stay home and treat my multi-decade bout of anal glaucoma. ;)
 
hindsight2020 said:
To wit, you can do that(...ish) in the right seat of group II as well, without the exposure to circadian trash (at lower pay of course).
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That's true, but one advantage of the 'circadian trash' is that your family is all in bed while you're in the air. So I can leave Sunday night after my daughter is in bed and be home first thing Wednesday morning right as she's waking up (of course I *do* need to nap when I get home, but I'll pick her up from preschool that day). And three of those trips is all I need to get into the LCW. Or I can do Sunday night to midday Tuesday four times per month, which is easier on the body. It's an incredibly efficient use of my time away from home for a given amount of pay. SCR is even more efficient of course, but I do better when I know my schedule.

But I also know plenty of folks that are happy flying Group 2 FO and enjoying the crazy seniority. If my wife ever actually completes all her training and gets a real job, that might be me one day! We'll see. ;)
 
Widebody FO is the bees knees *if* you can sleep on break and on layovers. I’ve flown with guys who never sleep on break and don’t really sleep that great on the layover. Not sure why they bid widebody but I’d be miserable if I wasn’t able to sleep. Thankfully I can fall asleep any time/any place. I’ve heard the pacific is harder to get your body block used to. I’ve only done Hawaii so I don’t have much experience. We’re really only on a 24-48 hour layover so there’s really no adjusting to get used to. Your body is still on your normal body clock time. The last few months flying the 75/76 I was bidding a lot of Accra because it’s a really productive 4 day trip with a red eye both ways. So I’d be home all day and was able to put my daughter to bed then head out to the airport for a midnight departure. Coming back we’d land at 4:30am so I’d be able to catch a few hours of sleep before she woke up. I could only do about 3 of them a month though. They’re pretty exhausting. Double red eye and it’s about 9:30 flight time there and almost 11 hours back.
 
I can take early retirement from my current job in 17 months. Already meet the usual airline hiring minimums (1500+, comm multi, etc.). Just hoping I won't have missed the window. Would be nice to first have a small pension locked-in in case of furloughs.
 
Reading all of the replies verifies what I tell newer guys. You just have to find your niche that suits you and it’s a great job. With the different fleets you can choose from 14 day international down to single day turn trips and sleep at home every day. Domestic day flying or nights. I have a friend that used to fly morning turns, leave about 3AM and back by noon, so he could coach his kids ball team. I’d rather get root canal than do that. To each his own.

Of course when you‘re junior that can be difficult.
 
Plano Pilot said:
I went Corporate and have been lucky enough to have never been laid off after 40 years and 4 jobs. Getting close to retirement.
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Dang....good for you.!! I once worked for a company that went TU and most the pilots (myself included) had their personal flight gear locked up in the building. We found out about the company folding by the chains and locks on the doors.

If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all...

Plano Pilot said:
It all depends on luck, timing and or who you know.
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Yep, I have had a couple jobs by being in the right place at the right time and knowing the right person. One was right after 9/11. I went all through Alaska looking for another job, then gave up and went south. A couple days later I got called for a job in Barrow. A friend saw my resume on the pile and told the chief pilot to call me, so I turned around and went back to Alaska.
 
tlglenn said:
I can take early retirement from my current job in 17 months. Already meet the usual airline hiring minimums (1500+, comm multi, etc.). Just hoping I won't have missed the window. Would be nice to first have a small pension locked-in in case of furloughs.
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I say go for it, but don't wait any longer than you have to. Seniority is everything. I don;t now how old you are but these days you can still start later in life, and still have a decent career. For many years 29 yrs old was the cut off for any airline job. Not so now.
 
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