Philadelphia Crash

Was asked by a couple of pilot friends what my 0.10 cents opinion on a possible cause of this crash.

This LOC was so quick and devastating all I can think of as possible Wild A*s Guesses was a runaway trim / autopilot malfunction, or a a modern glass cockpit that suddenly went blank resulting in not enough time to locate and recover flying the typical little battery powered AI backup. Or, the loss of the elevator flight control (broken cable?) that suddenly defaulted to way nose down as negative G's had everyone on board floating up against their seat belts.

Hard to believe a severe case of spatial disorientation on an instrument take off in a high-performance aircraft like a Lear, that the non-flying pilot couldn't or wouldn't take over and attempt to save the day following this serious nose over.
 
Rick A said:
Was asked by a couple of pilot friends what my 0.10 cents opinion on a possible cause of this crash.

This LOC was so quick and devastating all I can think of as possible Wild A*s Guesses was a runaway trim / autopilot malfunction, or a a modern glass cockpit that suddenly went blank resulting in not enough time to locate and recover flying the typical little battery powered AI backup. Or, the loss of the elevator flight control (broken cable?) that suddenly defaulted to way nose down as negative G's had everyone on board floating up against their seat belts.

Hard to believe a severe case of spatial disorientation on an instrument take off in a high-performance aircraft like a Lear, that the non-flying pilot couldn't or wouldn't take over and attempt to save the day following this serious nose over.
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Yeah, like technology is the answer. No, it is the problem.
 
I'm hearing a possible catastrophic engine failure....taking out part of the tail/controls.
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Profileclimb said:
That would make sense.
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The problem here, is that there should be a debris trail. The airplane was doing ~300 feet per second over the ground. If the catastrophic failure occurred even ten seconds before the crash, there should be bits and bobs spread out for over a mile.

Has there been any reports of debris other than at the main impact site?

Ron Wanttaja
 
wanttaja said:
The problem here, is that there should be a debris trail. The airplane was doing ~300 feet per second over the ground. If the catastrophic failure occurred even ten seconds before the crash, there should be bits and bobs spread out for over a mile.

Has there been any reports of debris other than at the main impact site?

Ron Wanttaja
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Not yet....but there's been no public discussion of any of the debris along the street or along the flight path. The CVR/FDR will be the tell tale of what happened. It may be a while before we hear the transcripts.

Did they recover the 6 on board? No discussion of that....I'm sure that was brutal.
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
Not yet....but there's been no public discussion of any of the debris along the street or along the flight path. The CVR/FDR will be the tell tale of what happened. It may be a while before we hear the transcripts.

Did they recover the 6 on board? No discussion of that....I'm sure that was brutal.
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If you go to the GIS link posted in this thread, there is debris and "human remains" that have been discovered up to 1100 feet away from the crash site. However, none of it was prior to the crash (opposite the direction of travel), it was mainly off to the sides so it doesn't sound like anything came off early.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
If you go to the GIS link posted in this thread, there is debris and "human remains" that have been discovered up to 1100 feet away from the crash site. However, none of it was prior to the crash (opposite the direction of travel), it was mainly off to the sides so it doesn't sound like anything came off early.
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The engines will need to be inspected....and the pieces put back together to perform a post-mortem. It does appear most of the plane arrived in that area.
 
Looking at the data they have paints a scary picture - Time, altitude, speed, heading are what they show, I'm putting the average turn rate and VS since the previous hit in:

1806:34, 1025 MSL, 185 kts, HDG 240
1806:41, 1450 MSL, 192 kts, HDG 240, VS +3,643, no turn
1806:45, 1575 MSL, 198 kts, HDG 237, VS +1,875, 25% standard rate turn
1806:50, 1625 MSL, 209 kts, HDG 229, VS +600, 53% standard rate turn
1806:54, 1650 MSL, 218 kts, HDG 221, VS +375, 67% standard rate turn
1806:59, 1625 MSL, 238 kts, HDG 195, VS -300, 173% standard rate turn
1807:01, 1275 MSL, 242 kts, HDG 189, VS -10,500, 100% standard rate turn

Almost seems like a ballistic trajectory, but really more like a constant rate of change, possibly a jammed control giving a constant roll rate to partially inverted before impact: Increase in rate of turn, peaking just as the descent started, followed by a massive increase in descent.

Makes me wonder if they had a control lock and whether it was installed, or maybe the controls were jammed?
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Looking at the data they have paints a scary picture - Time, altitude, speed, heading are what they show, I'm putting the average turn rate and VS since the previous hit in:

1806:34, 1025 MSL, 185 kts, HDG 240
1806:41, 1450 MSL, 192 kts, HDG 240, VS +3,643, no turn
1806:45, 1575 MSL, 198 kts, HDG 237, VS +1,875, 25% standard rate turn
1806:50, 1625 MSL, 209 kts, HDG 229, VS +600, 53% standard rate turn
1806:54, 1650 MSL, 218 kts, HDG 221, VS +375, 67% standard rate turn
1806:59, 1625 MSL, 238 kts, HDG 195, VS -300, 173% standard rate turn
1807:01, 1275 MSL, 242 kts, HDG 189, VS -10,500, 100% standard rate turn

Almost seems like a ballistic trajectory, but really more like a constant rate of change, possibly a jammed control giving a constant roll rate to partially inverted before impact: Increase in rate of turn, peaking just as the descent started, followed by a massive increase in descent.

Makes me wonder if they had a control lock and whether it was installed, or maybe the controls were jammed?
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I don't believe the cause will ever be determined. The fragmentation of the airframe must have left nothing but random bits of aluminum and steel.
 
Most of them require you to perform the self-test every day. If it fails, you remove it and send it to the manufacturer.
 
AV8R_87 said:
Most of them require you to perform the self-test every day. If it fails, you remove it and send it to the manufacturer.
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I’ve never messed with the magnetic tape recorders. It’s my understanding eventually that tape deteriorates and stops recording.
Would that keep it from passing a self test?

In our operation, I can’t really remember doing any tests on the recorders other than the self test. The only time I know of them getting pulled for an audio check is when an incident happened.

It’s an honest question.
 
Bacho said:
I’ve never messed with the magnetic tape recorders. It’s my understanding eventually that tape deteriorates and stops recording.
Would that keep it from passing a self test?
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That's why there is a headphone jack on the CVR control panel. Plug your headphones in there and listen during the test. That audio comes from a playback head, so if it sounds good, it got recorded properly on the tape.
Tape-based units had more stringent maintenance requirements (check/replace tapes at some pretty regular intervals), but I don't think the one in the accident plane was tape-based. They were old stuff 20 years ago.
 
I looked at the photo link in the preliminary report. This is the CVR.

54307169990_aecc3f6d50_o.jpg


They found it 8' down in the hole.


54306916323_3cd1af5a3f_o.jpg
 
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