PC 12 down in Nevada - 5 Fatalities

Capngrog said:
however, speculation or otherwise, it gets us thinking about the cause of an accident and how we,as individuals, could avoid duplicating the circumstances leading to the accident
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I am interested in learning about the various realistic and plausible ways the flight may have ended badly and how I can mitigate all of those various possibilities where possible.
The actual sequence of events which lead to this outcome may be determined by NTSB but all of the possibilities may have beneficial learning information for me.
 
Mongoose Aviator said:
I am interested in learning about the various realistic and plausible ways the flight may have ended badly and how I can mitigate all of those various possibilities where possible.
The actual sequence of events which lead to this outcome may be determined by NTSB but all of the possibilities may have beneficial learning information for me.
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In addition to what's been discussed here, the video in post #110 provides a summary of possibilities.
 
dtuuri said:
Then the plane didn't make one big turn as it descended, but instead came down spinning like a maple seed while traveling a 360° arc to the right?
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The flat spin was the result of the in-flight structural breakup. Perhaps I was not sufficiently clear in my Post #115 above, but the structural breakup was due to exceeding Vne in a spiral dive. Take a look at the video presented by the AOPA Air Safety Institute in Post #110 above and the ADS-B Exchange flight track.

At this time, none of us really knows what happened during the final flight of N273SM, so we're all dealing in speculation/opinion. What is your opinion as to the cause of this crash?
 
Capngrog said:
What is your opinion as to the cause of this crash?
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I have no opinion because I don't have enough facts. It looks to me like the plane started losing altitude and turning very quickly, 1,100 feet in ten seconds. That's hard to do intentionally with a good airplane, maybe not too hard without a tail.
 
Philip98 said:
I found the NTSB mention of the brain tumor interesting. Scary thought! I guess we will never know what, if any, impact it had.
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Isn’t that why you fly the Instruments and not your physical cues?
 
bonefishpete said:
Isn’t that why you fly the Instruments and not your physical cues?
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Yep, that's rule #1... the very core of hand-flying while IMC. I believe many LOC's that occur while IMC are a result of mishandling the autopilot. Trying way too long to focus on buttons and knobs, and not enough time focusing on what's going to save your live(s), basic instrument skills. Once the cat's out of the bag it's much tougher to put it back in.
 
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Philip98 said:
Yes, I am no brain surgeon but I do wonder if a tumor bad enough to effect your sense of orientation also does bad things to your ability to hand fly.
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Perfectly good senses will become disoriented in not so many seconds in the murk.
 
I'm going to go way out on a limb, not having any medical training past advanced first aid, and say that maybe a brain tumor could have a completely unknown effect on brain function. In which case, it could impair judgement and reasoning as well. Those things, I can say with some actual confidence, have a lot to do with most accidents. I didn't read through to see if the pilot knew he had the condition, but if he didn't know, or if his judgement was impaired enough that he didn't know how to make the right decision, I feel bad for him. In any case, feel terrible for those lost and their families. I need to look for some humor now.
 
Albany Tom said:
I'm going to go way out on a limb, not having any medical training past advanced first aid, and say that maybe a brain tumor could have a completely unknown effect on brain function. In which case, it could impair judgement and reasoning as well. Those things, I can say with some actual confidence, have a lot to do with most accidents. I didn't read through to see if the pilot knew he had the condition, but if he didn't know, or if his judgement was impaired enough that he didn't know how to make the right decision, I feel bad for him. In any case, feel terrible for those lost and their families. I need to look for some humor now.
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The NTSB makes it sound like it was unknown and found post accident. I am very confident the NTSB doesn’t go looking inside brains regularly after an accident. For reference, I didn’t personally know the PIC but he went to my Church and was very well regarded. At any rate, the report doesn’t seem to put much emphasis on the brain tumor and I am sure the folks at the NTSB had some help from people knowledgeable on the matter, so my guess it wasn’t the big of a role. Maybe it was a very small tumor, it doesn’t even say it was cancerous.
 
Philip98 said:
The NTSB makes it sound like it was unknown and found post accident. I am very confident the NTSB doesn’t go looking inside brains regularly after an accident. For reference, I didn’t personally know the PIC but he went to my Church and was very well regarded. At any rate, the report doesn’t seem to put much emphasis on the brain tumor and I am sure the folks at the NTSB had some help from people knowledgeable on the matter, so my guess it wasn’t the big of a role. Maybe it was a very small tumor, it doesn’t even say it was cancerous.
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Thanks for that info. I wonder if it was a routine part of the autopsy for that area...guessing but not sure that while the NTSB does the investigation of the accident and can request things like tox info from the deceased, that the procedures are all owned by whatever the laws/rules are for the area where the accident occurred. Now I'm curious if something small like that could impair judgement ever so slightly, yet be completely unknown to anyone around them, let alone to the person themselves. All guesses though. Sorry you lost someone that was in your group, I know there's always a ripple impact from that even if you don't know them directly.
 
Philip98 said:
Yes, I am no brain surgeon but I do wonder if a tumor bad enough to effect your sense of orientation also does bad things to your ability to hand fly.
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A friend of mine, former Navy F14/F18 and Jet Blue pilot, died of a brain tumor. It was discovered during sim training for an Airbus type rating when he kept making mistakes. He also started having balance issues. It came on fast and he was dead within 6 months. So yes, it could absolutely be a factor.
 
Philip98 said:
I am very confident the NTSB doesn’t go looking inside brains regularly after an accident.
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Post accident, the autopsy is usually managed by the local coroner and will go as far as they deem necessary. However, the NTSB does have the legal authority to request an autopsy or other specific tests they believe are relevant to their investigation and have on occasion. A more common finding vs a brain tumor, are prior unknown conditions like excessive vein/artery blockages which are then plugged into the investigation to see if any of the potential causes could have a cardiac or stroke factor to them.
 
Air Ambulance. Would a requirement for a two man flight crew have avoided this accident! Should it be a requirement?
 
bonefishpete said:
Air Ambulance. Would a requirement for a two man flight crew have avoided this accident! Should it be a requirement?
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Funny enough the same operator lost a two man king air before. Unfortunately that wreckage is at the bottom of freezing cold water in Alaska and it was mostly left uninvestigated and there is only speculation to go off of. At any rate, the company has lost a few planes. For this PC-12 accident and the other accidents, the safety analyses required to be done before flight where not done. The flight briefers also did not provide the flight crews with all the information they where supposed to.
 
Ed Haywood said:
A friend of mine, former Navy F14/F18 and Jet Blue pilot, died of a brain tumor. It was discovered during sim training for an Airbus type rating when he kept making mistakes. He also started having balance issues. It came on fast and he was dead within 6 months. So yes, it could absolutely be a factor.
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Wow, he failed the ultimate cognitive test. Sad that the medical industry wasn’t able to save his life…
 
Ed Haywood said:
A friend of mine, former Navy F14/F18 and Jet Blue pilot, died of a brain tumor. It was discovered during sim training for an Airbus type rating when he kept making mistakes. He also started having balance issues. It came on fast and he was dead within 6 months. So yes, it could absolutely be a factor.
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Sorry for your loss, he sounded like a good friend.
 
Philip98 said:
Funny enough the same operator lost a two man king air before. Unfortunately that wreckage is at the bottom of freezing cold water in Alaska and it was mostly left uninvestigated and there is only speculation to go off of.
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You have no idea what you’re talking about. Guardian has never lost a two-pilot crew.

Also, the vast majority of that wreckage was recovered because the company paid out of pocket so they could try and figure out what happened.
 
DavidWhite said:
You have no idea what you’re talking about. Guardian has never lost a two-pilot crew.

Also, the vast majority of that wreckage was recovered because the company paid out of pocket so they could try and figure out what happened.
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Hmmm my apologies, I must have misremembered the exact details.
 
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